<p><strong>科爾士</strong>(KSS 1.11%) 正在經歷其 63 年曆史上可能最艱難的時期。由於銷售下滑，這家百貨巨頭的股價今年迄今已暴跌 42%，考驗着零售商的市場相關性。</p>
<p>儘管面臨這些挑戰，公司仍保持盈利，並正在推進一項可能引發股價反彈的重組戰略。近期的疲軟是否使科爾士成為現在購買的清倉特價商品，還是將其放在分期付款中更為明智？</p>
<p>讓我們探討一下這隻股票在一年後可能的表現。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAyNTIva29obHMtc3RvY2stb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LXR1cm5hcm91bmQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAyNTIva29obHMtc3RvY2stb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LXR1cm5hcm91bmQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2025 年的動盪開局</h2>
<p>科爾士以其獨特的私人品牌和主要時尚品牌的組合而聞名，價格實惠。儘管這一模式贏得了忠實的顧客羣體，但公司卻陷入了消費支出環境的變化中，購物者面臨着緊張的可支配支出預算。該零售商現在似乎在激烈的競爭中難以維持市場份額，面臨來自其他商店和電子商務平台的強大壓力。</p>
<p>今年，最新的逆風是特朗普政府實施的新關税，這迫使科爾士調整其庫存管理並多樣化其供應鏈以減輕影響。公司還因內部調查而解僱了前首席執行官阿什利·布坎南（Ashley Buchanan），這也給公司帶來了困擾。</p>
<p>在第一季度（截至 5 月 3 日），收入同比下降 4.1%，可比銷售下降 3.9%，其數字業務表現不佳。如果説結果中有一點好消息，那就是控制成本和精簡運營的努力使每股淨虧損從去年的 0.24 美元縮小至 0.13 美元。</p>
<p>對於整個年度，科爾士預計銷售將進一步疲軟，目標是年淨銷售額下降 5% 至 7%。如果這一中間估計得到確認，將比 2024 年 7.2% 的下降有所改善，但 2025 年每股收益（EPS）預計在 0.10 美元至 0.60 美元之間，低於去年的 0.98 美元。在這一點上，值得注意的是，即使面臨持續的困難，科爾士預計今年仍將盈利。</p>
<p>最終，新任臨時首席執行官邁克爾·本德（Michael Bender）面臨着大量工作，以修復公司的信譽並修復這家曾經行業領先零售商的眾多破損部分。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>可比銷售增長（同比）</td>
<td>(6.5%)</td>
<td>(4%) 至 (6%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>淨銷售增長（同比）</td>
<td>(7.2%)</td>
<td>(5%) 至 (7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>營業利潤率</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.2% 至 2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>$0.98</td>
<td>$0.10 至 $0.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>來源：科爾士公司。同比 = 年同比。</p>
<h2>科爾士的重組計劃</h2>
<p>科爾士正在實施一項全面計劃，以穩定其財務狀況並改善基礎，以啓動長期增長。為此，公司專注於減少債務並重建現金儲備。</p>
<p>關鍵一步是今年早些時候宣佈的削減股息，將季度支付從每股 0.50 美元減少至 0.125 美元。新的股息仍為投資者提供了 6.1% 的誘人收益率，並將每年為公司節省約 1.64 億美元的現金，這將幫助其應對當前 21 億美元的資產負債表債務。</p>
<p>此外，科爾士正在改進其購物體驗，以吸引顧客回到其商店和網站。今年覆蓋 613 個地點的重要店面刷新計劃應能提升全渠道體驗，旨在使購物更加吸引人和無縫。公司還在調整產品組合，以更好地滿足顧客需求，重點關注像珠寶這樣的高價值品類，該品類在增長中表現出色。</p>
<p>此外，科爾士正在擴大與美容產品專家 Sephora 的合作，完成在其 1100 個地點推出的店中店，並顯示出良好的結果。通過優化其營銷信息並突出其核心優勢，科爾士旨在重新建立品牌吸引力，並重新回到可持續盈利增長的軌道上。</p>
<h2>我的預測：不確定性將使股價波動</h2>
<p>在我看來，現在購買科爾士的股票還為時尚早，因為其眾多不確定性增加了在增長持續失望的情況下進一步下跌的風險。除了科爾士誘人的高收益股息外，我認為明智的做法是投資者暫時避免該股票，因為我預測該股將保持波動，並可能在明年此時以更低的價格交易。</p>

科爾士百貨

<p>科爾士百貨 (KSS) 面臨重大挑戰，今年股價下跌 42%，銷售額下降且競爭加劇。儘管公司實施了扭轉戰略並預計將實現盈利，但預計 2025 年年淨銷售額將下降 5-7%。新任臨時首席執行官邁克爾·本德 (Michael Bender) 的任務是恢復公司的信譽並穩定財務，包括削減股息以每年節省 1.64 億美元。雖然科爾士正在改造購物體驗並擴大合作伙伴關係，但不確定性依然存在，導致市場預測未來一年股價將繼續波動並可能下跌</p>

<p><strong>Kohl's</strong>(KSS 1.11%) is navigating what may be the most difficult period in its 63-year history. Shares of the department store giant have plummeted 42% year to date, amid falling sales -- testing the retailer's relevance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>科爾士</strong>(KSS 1.11%) 正在經歷其 63 年曆史上可能最艱難的時期。由於銷售下滑，這家百貨巨頭的股價今年迄今已暴跌 42%，考驗着零售商的市場相關性。</p>
</div><p>Despite these challenges, the company remains profitable and is pushing forward with a turnaround strategy that may spark a stock price rebound. Does the recent weakness make Kohl's a clearance-rack bargain to buy now, or is keeping it in layaway the more prudent move?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管面臨這些挑戰，公司仍保持盈利，並正在推進一項可能引發股價反彈的重組戰略。近期的疲軟是否使科爾士成為現在購買的清倉特價商品，還是將其放在分期付款中更為明智？</p>
</div><p>Let's explore where the stock might be in a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們探討一下這隻股票在一年後可能的表現。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjAyNTIva29obHMtc3RvY2stb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LXR1cm5hcm91bmQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820252%2Fkohls-stock-outlook-2025-turnaround.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A turbulent start to 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年的動盪開局</h2>
</div><p>Kohl's is recognized for its unique blend of private-label and major fashion brands at affordable prices. Even as the model commands a loyal customer following, the company has been caught in a shifting consumer spending environment, with shoppers facing stretched discretionary spending budgets. The retailer now appears to be struggling to maintain its market share against intense competition from other stores and e-commerce players.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科爾士以其獨特的私人品牌和主要時尚品牌的組合而聞名，價格實惠。儘管這一模式贏得了忠實的顧客羣體，但公司卻陷入了消費支出環境的變化中，購物者面臨着緊張的可支配支出預算。該零售商現在似乎在激烈的競爭中難以維持市場份額，面臨來自其他商店和電子商務平台的強大壓力。</p>
</div><p>This year, the latest headwind is the new tariffs on imported goods implemented by the Trump administration, which have forced Kohl's to adjust its inventory management and diversify its supply chain to mitigate the impact. The company has also been marred by corporate dysfunction, firing its former CEO Ashley Buchanan in early May following an internal investigation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，最新的逆風是特朗普政府實施的新關税，這迫使科爾士調整其庫存管理並多樣化其供應鏈以減輕影響。公司還因內部調查而解僱了前首席執行官阿什利·布坎南（Ashley Buchanan），這也給公司帶來了困擾。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter (ended May 3), revenue fell by 4.1% year over year, reflecting a 3.9% decline in comparable sales, with its digital business underperforming. If there is a silver lining to the results, efforts to control costs and streamline operations allowed the net loss of $0.13 per share to narrow compared to a $0.24 loss in the prior-year quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度（截至 5 月 3 日），收入同比下降 4.1%，可比銷售下降 3.9%，其數字業務表現不佳。如果説結果中有一點好消息，那就是控制成本和精簡運營的努力使每股淨虧損從去年的 0.24 美元縮小至 0.13 美元。</p>
</div><p>For the full year, Kohl's expects further sales weakness, targeting a decline in annual net sales between 5% and 7%. While that estimate at the midpoint, if confirmed, would mark a modest improvement compared to the 7.2% drop in 2024, the projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 of between $0.10 and $0.60 is below the $0.98 result last year. On this point, it's notable that even with ongoing difficulties, Kohl's is expected to be profitable this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於整個年度，科爾士預計銷售將進一步疲軟，目標是年淨銷售額下降 5% 至 7%。如果這一中間估計得到確認，將比 2024 年 7.2% 的下降有所改善，但 2025 年每股收益（EPS）預計在 0.10 美元至 0.60 美元之間，低於去年的 0.98 美元。在這一點上，值得注意的是，即使面臨持續的困難，科爾士預計今年仍將盈利。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the new interim CEO, Michael Bender, has a lot of work ahead to repair the company's credibility and fix the many broken parts of this once industry-leading retailer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，新任臨時首席執行官邁克爾·本德（Michael Bender）面臨着大量工作，以修復公司的信譽並修復這家曾經行業領先零售商的眾多破損部分。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Comparable sales growth (YOY)</td>
<td>(6.5%)</td>
<td>(4%) to (6%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Net sales growth (YOY)</td>
<td>(7.2%)</td>
<td>(5%) to (7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Operating margin</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.2% to 2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$0.98</td>
<td>$0.10 to $0.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>可比銷售增長（同比）</td>
<td>(6.5%)</td>
<td>(4%) 至 (6%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>淨銷售增長（同比）</td>
<td>(7.2%)</td>
<td>(5%) 至 (7%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>營業利潤率</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.2% 至 2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>$0.98</td>
<td>$0.10 至 $0.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Kohl's Corp. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：科爾士公司。同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><h2>Kohl's turnaround plan</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>科爾士的重組計劃</h2>
</div><p>Kohl's is implementing a comprehensive plan to stabilize its finances and improve its foundation to kick-start growth over the long run. To achieve this, the company is focused on reducing debt and rebuilding its cash position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科爾士正在實施一項全面計劃，以穩定其財務狀況並改善基礎，以啓動長期增長。為此，公司專注於減少債務並重建現金儲備。</p>
</div><p>A key step was the dividend cut announced earlier this year, reducing the quarterly payment to $0.125 per share from the previous $0.50 per-share rate. The new dividend still offers investors a compelling 6.1% yield, and it will also save the company approximately $164 million in cash annually, which will help it address its current $2.1 billion in balance sheet debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵一步是今年早些時候宣佈的削減股息，將季度支付從每股 0.50 美元減少至 0.125 美元。新的股息仍為投資者提供了 6.1% 的誘人收益率，並將每年為公司節省約 1.64 億美元的現金，這將幫助其應對當前 21 億美元的資產負債表債務。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Kohl's is revamping its shopping experience to attract customers back to its stores and website. A significant store refresh initiative covering 613 locations this year should enhance the omnichannel experience, intended to make shopping more engaging and seamless. The company is also adjusting its product mix to better meet customer needs, with a focus on high-value categories like jewelry, which has been a rare bright spot with positive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，科爾士正在改進其購物體驗，以吸引顧客回到其商店和網站。今年覆蓋 613 個地點的重要店面刷新計劃應能提升全渠道體驗，旨在使購物更加吸引人和無縫。公司還在調整產品組合，以更好地滿足顧客需求，重點關注像珠寶這樣的高價值品類，該品類在增長中表現出色。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Kohl's is expanding its partnership with beauty products specialist Sephora, completing a rollout of shop-in-shops across its 1,100 locations and showing promising results. By refining its marketing messaging and highlighting its core strengths, Kohl's aims to reestablish its brand appeal and get back on track for sustainably profitable growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，科爾士正在擴大與美容產品專家 Sephora 的合作，完成在其 1100 個地點推出的店中店，並顯示出良好的結果。通過優化其營銷信息並突出其核心優勢，科爾士旨在重新建立品牌吸引力，並重新回到可持續盈利增長的軌道上。</p>
</div><h2>My prediction: Uncertainties will keep shares volatile</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我的預測：不確定性將使股價波動</h2>
</div><p>In my view, it's too early to buy Kohl's stock with conviction, as its numerous uncertainties add to the risk of further downside in a scenario where growth continues to disappoint. Beyond Kohl's temptingly high-yielding dividend, I believe the prudent move is for investors to avoid it for now, as I predict the stock will remain volatile and could be trading at a lower price this time next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，現在購買科爾士的股票還為時尚早，因為其眾多不確定性增加了在增長持續失望的情況下進一步下跌的風險。除了科爾士誘人的高收益股息外，我認為明智的做法是投資者暫時避免該股票，因為我預測該股將保持波動，並可能在明年此時以更低的價格交易。</p>
</div>

科爾士百貨的股票在一年後會處於什麼位置？