<p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 1.79%）的股價在過去 20 年中飆升了 14,760%，這得益於其硬件設備和軟件解決方案日益受到全球消費者的歡迎。即使在過去五年中，投資者也獲得了 150% 的收益（截至 6 月 4 日）。</p>
<p>如今，蘋果是一家龐然大物，市值達到 3 萬億美元。但其股價距離峯值下跌了 22%，這可能提供了一個潛在的買入機會。在未來五年，這家主導消費電子企業的股票將會如何呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NDAvd29tYW4td2l0aC1haXJwb2RzLWluLWVhci1hcHBsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NDAvd29tYW4td2l0aC1haXJwb2RzLWluLWVhci1hcHBsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：蘋果。</p>
<h2>iPhone 的終結開始了嗎？</h2>
<p>iPhone 可能是有史以來最成功的產品。它於 2007 年首次發佈，現在已經進入第 16 個升級週期。在 2025 財年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日），這一單一產品為蘋果創造了 470 億美元的收入，佔總收入的 49%。然而，問題在於，這一銷售數字同比僅增長了 2%。</p>
<p>從消費者的角度來看，升級之間等待更長時間是合理的，因為新功能並不像以前那樣具有革命性。例如，為了相機的小幅改進，花費四位數的金額可能並不值得。</p>
<p>也許到 2030 年，會出現一種新設備，改變人們與技術互動和完成任務的方式。最近宣佈，OpenAI 將以 65 億美元收購蘋果前首席設計官 Jony Ive 的設計公司 io。目標是創造一種專門為人工智能（AI）構建的全新產品。</p>
<p>就我而言，我並不準備聲稱 iPhone 已經死去。畢竟，它在三個月內創造的收入超過了大多數公司一整年的收入。但增長放緩突顯了公司在未來可能面臨的挑戰。其中之一是，蘋果的智能技術可能落後於潮流，正如其未能推動更多 iPhone 16 購買所顯示的那樣。</p>
<p>批評者指出，蘋果未能創造出下一個能夠推動財務增長的顛覆性硬件設備。報道稱，蘋果在過去十年裏一直在研發一款電動汽車。僅在美國，4 月份季節性調整後的年銷量達 1770 萬輛，因此這個市場足夠大，值得蘋果關注。然而，蘋果去年關閉了這個項目。</p>
<p>對蘋果採取謹慎態度是個好主意。iPhone 之後推出的產品在任何標準下都取得了驚人的成功。例如，Apple Watch 的全球市場份額為 22%。預計 AirPods 在 2023 財年帶來了 180 億美元的收入。在過去四個財年中，蘋果的公司整體銷售額達到了 4000 億美元，因此推動強勁增長極其困難。</p>
<h2>蘋果能否超越市場？</h2>
<p>投資者採取的行動最終取決於他們想要實現的目標。對於許多人來説，目標是在長期內超越市場。如果你在過去擁有蘋果股票，這正是發生的事情。</p>
<p>但如果我們展望未來五年，我對這隻股票能否跑贏更廣泛的指數並不自信。較低的增長前景和 31.6 的市盈率是主要的阻力。</p>
<p>公平地説，這是一傢俱有競爭優勢的企業。它仍然擁有世界上最強大的品牌之一。它產生了鉅額的淨收入和自由現金流，其中很多以股息和回購的形式返還給股東。</p>
<p>這意味着蘋果至少應該保持在你的關注範圍內。如果估值降至市盈率 25 或以下，那麼情況就更有趣了。屆時可以考慮買入該股票。在那之前，請耐心等待合適的機會。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果的股票在 20 年內上漲了 14,760%，在過去五年中增長了 150%，但目前交易價格比峯值低 22%。儘管 iPhone 仍然是收入的強大來源，但增長放緩，引發了對未來銷售的擔憂。儘管面臨挑戰，蘋果依然是一個強大的品牌，擁有可觀的現金流。分析師建議，雖然蘋果在未來五年可能無法超越市場，但如果市盈率降至 25 以下，仍應關注潛在的買入機會</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>'s(AAPL 1.79%) stock price has shot up 14,760% in the past 20 years thanks to the budding popularity of its hardware devices and software solutions that have won over consumers across the globe. Even in the past five years, investors have been rewarded with a 150% gain (as of June 4).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 1.79%）的股價在過去 20 年中飆升了 14,760%，這得益於其硬件設備和軟件解決方案日益受到全球消費者的歡迎。即使在過去五年中，投資者也獲得了 150% 的收益（截至 6 月 4 日）。</p>
</div><p>Apple is a behemoth today, with a market cap of $3 trillion. But the stock trades 22% off its peak, which might present a potential buying opportunity. Where will shares in this dominant consumer electronics enterprise be in five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，蘋果是一家龐然大物，市值達到 3 萬億美元。但其股價距離峯值下跌了 22%，這可能提供了一個潛在的買入機會。在未來五年，這家主導消費電子企業的股票將會如何呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA2NDAvd29tYW4td2l0aC1haXJwb2RzLWluLWVhci1hcHBsZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820640%2Fwoman-with-airpods-in-ear-apple.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：蘋果。</p>
</div><h2>Is it the beginning of the end for the iPhone?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>iPhone 的終結開始了嗎？</h2>
</div><p>The iPhone might be the most successful product of all time. It was released for the first time in 2007, and now it's on its 16th upgrade cycle. In the fiscal 2025 second quarter (ended March 29), this single product generated $47 billion in revenue for Apple, accounting for 49% of the total. The issue, though, is that this sales figure was up only 2% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 可能是有史以來最成功的產品。它於 2007 年首次發佈，現在已經進入第 16 個升級週期。在 2025 財年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日），這一單一產品為蘋果創造了 470 億美元的收入，佔總收入的 49%。然而，問題在於，這一銷售數字同比僅增長了 2%。</p>
</div><p>From a consumer's perspective, it makes sense to wait longer between upgrades simply because the newer features aren't as revolutionary as they were before. It's probably not worth spending a four-figure sum for minor tweaks to the camera, for instance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從消費者的角度來看，升級之間等待更長時間是合理的，因為新功能並不像以前那樣具有革命性。例如，為了相機的小幅改進，花費四位數的金額可能並不值得。</p>
</div><p>Maybe by 2030, a new device will be created that changes how people interact with technology and get things done. It was announced recently that OpenAI will acquire the design firm io from Jony Ive, former Chief Design Officer at Apple, for $6.5 billion. The goal is to create a totally new product that is built specifically for artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也許到 2030 年，會出現一種新設備，改變人們與技術互動和完成任務的方式。最近宣佈，OpenAI 將以 65 億美元收購蘋果前首席設計官 Jony Ive 的設計公司 io。目標是創造一種專門為人工智能（AI）構建的全新產品。</p>
</div><p>For what it's worth, I'm not ready to claim that the iPhone is dead. After all, it raked in more revenue in a three-month span than most companies do in an entire year. But the slowdown highlights potential challenges for the company as we look ahead. One is that perhaps Apple Intelligence is behind the curve, as evidenced by its inability to drive more iPhone 16 purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就我而言，我並不準備聲稱 iPhone 已經死去。畢竟，它在三個月內創造的收入超過了大多數公司一整年的收入。但增長放緩突顯了公司在未來可能面臨的挑戰。其中之一是，蘋果的智能技術可能落後於潮流，正如其未能推動更多 iPhone 16 購買所顯示的那樣。</p>
</div><p>The critics have called out Apple's failure to create the next game-changing hardware device that can push the financial needle. Apple was reportedly working on an electric car for a decade. In the U.S. alone, 17.7 million passenger vehicles were sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis in April, so this market is certainly big enough for this business to focus on. However, Apple shut down this project last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>批評者指出，蘋果未能創造出下一個能夠推動財務增長的顛覆性硬件設備。報道稱，蘋果在過去十年裏一直在研發一款電動汽車。僅在美國，4 月份季節性調整後的年銷量達 1770 萬輛，因此這個市場足夠大，值得蘋果關注。然而，蘋果去年關閉了這個項目。</p>
</div><p>It's a good idea to take it easy on Apple. Products that have been launched after the iPhone have been ridiculously successful by any measure. For example, the Apple Watch has a 22% global market share. And it is estimated that AirPods brought in $18 billion in revenue in fiscal 2023. It's just extremely difficult to push strong growth when you generated $400 billion in companywide sales in the past four fiscal quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對蘋果採取謹慎態度是個好主意。iPhone 之後推出的產品在任何標準下都取得了驚人的成功。例如，Apple Watch 的全球市場份額為 22%。預計 AirPods 在 2023 財年帶來了 180 億美元的收入。在過去四個財年中，蘋果的公司整體銷售額達到了 4000 億美元，因此推動強勁增長極其困難。</p>
</div><h2>Will Apple beat the market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果能否超越市場？</h2>
</div><p>The action investors take ultimately comes down to what they're trying to achieve. For many, the goal is to beat the market over the long term. Had you owned Apple in the past, this is precisely what has happened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者採取的行動最終取決於他們想要實現的目標。對於許多人來説，目標是在長期內超越市場。如果你在過去擁有蘋果股票，這正是發生的事情。</p>
</div><p>But if we look to the next five years, I'm not confident this stock can outperform the broader indexes. Lower growth prospects and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.6 are key headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果我們展望未來五年，我對這隻股票能否跑贏更廣泛的指數並不自信。較低的增長前景和 31.6 的市盈率是主要的阻力。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, this is a competitively advantaged business. It still possesses one of the world's most powerful brands. It produces insane amounts of net income and free cash flow, a lot of which is returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，這是一傢俱有競爭優勢的企業。它仍然擁有世界上最強大的品牌之一。它產生了鉅額的淨收入和自由現金流，其中很多以股息和回購的形式返還給股東。</p>
</div><p>This means that Apple should at least remain on your radar. If the valuation drops to a P/E of 25 or below, then the situation is more interesting. It's time to consider buying the stock at that point. Until then, be patient for the right opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着蘋果至少應該保持在你的關注範圍內。如果估值降至市盈率 25 或以下，那麼情況就更有趣了。屆時可以考慮買入該股票。在那之前，請耐心等待合適的機會。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 蘋果公司過去 20 年股價上漲 14,760%，市值達 3 萬億美元。  
- iPhone 銷售增長放緩，2025 財年第二季度收入為 470 億美元，僅增長 2%。  
- 投資者需關注蘋果的估值，若市盈率降至 25 以下，可考慮買入。

五年後蘋果的股票會處於什麼位置？