<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 0.94%）在市場上擁有最高的股息收益率之一，約為 16%。但由於過去幾年股價穩步下滑，投資者有理由問：這項分紅是否可持續，更重要的是，今天的股票是否值得購買？</p>
<p>對於不熟悉的人來説，AGNC 是一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託（mREIT），擁有主要由 <strong>房利美</strong> 和 <strong>房地美</strong> 擔保的機構抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）。由於這些證券由政府機構擔保，因此幾乎沒有信用風險。但 AGNC 的業務遠非無風險，這裏故事變得複雜。</p>
<h2>AGNC 為何掙扎</h2>
<p>過去幾年，AGNC 面臨的最大問題是抵押貸款利率上升。推動利率上升的主要有兩個問題。</p>
<p>其一是美聯儲在幾年前為了應對通貨膨脹而大幅提高基準利率。這導致抵押貸款利率也隨之攀升。然而，這並不是抵押貸款利率飆升的唯一原因。</p>
<p>MBS 收益率與國債收益率之間的利差也開始顯著擴大。在 COVID-19 大流行期間，美聯儲是 MBS 的巨大買家，壓低了收益率並縮小了 MBS 與國債之間的收益差。然而，在大流行之後，美聯儲停止了購買 MBS，並開始讓其到期後從資產負債表中剔除。大約在同一時間，隨着債券價格下跌，銀行也開始減少購買 MBS，而硅谷銀行的倒閉（該行重倉長期 MBS）更是使銀行進一步遠離 MBS 市場。</p>
<p>在此期間，AGNC 的 MBS 投資組合的價值（以其有形賬面價值（TBV）衡量）暴跌。從 2021 年底到 2023 年底，AGNC 的有形賬面價值從每股 15.75 美元下降了 45%，降至 8.70 美元。此後又略微下滑，截至 2025 年第一季度末為 8.25 美元。最終，AGNC 的 TBV 走向哪裏，其股票必然會跟隨。</p>
<h2>什麼可能扭轉局面？</h2>
<p>儘管 AGNC 經歷了艱難的時期，但現在股票的形勢看起來要好得多。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾已暗示可能會進一步降息，而美聯儲自己的預測也指向未來幾年利率將降低。這將為 AGNC 創造一個更好的環境。</p>
<p>美聯儲降息可能會以兩種主要方式惠及 AGNC。首先，這可能會降低其短期融資成本；AGNC 試圖借錢投資於長期和高收益的 MBS。其次，較低的利率可能會通過提升 MBS 的估值來幫助提高其 TBV。</p>
<p>過去幾年，國債收益率曲線出現倒掛，這意味着短期國債（如兩年期國債）的收益率高於長期國債（如十年期國債）。毫不奇怪，這對一家依靠短期和長期利率之間的利差來產生收入的公司來説並不是一個好環境。</p>
<p>現在，AGNC 積極對沖其融資成本，以更好地與其 MBS 資產的期限對齊。然而，它無法在較長時間內完全抵消來自倒掛曲線的壓力。不過，隨着收益曲線在去年底從倒掛轉為正向（長期收益率高於短期收益率），AGNC 有望從更寬的利差中受益。</p>
<p>如果 MBS 收益率開始下降，AGNC 的投資組合也處於良好位置。超過 80% 的持有資產的票息為 6% 或更低，這有助於限制提前還款風險。提前還款風險在房主開始再融資為低利率抵押貸款時最高，這迫使抵押貸款 REIT 重新投資於低收益的 MBS。</p>
<h2>股息安全嗎？</h2>
<p>雖然高股息收益率具有吸引力，但它們也可能是一個警告信號。然而，AGNC 在非常困難的環境中維持了分紅，儘管有時以降低有形賬面價值為代價。</p>
<p>説股息完全安全並不公平，但如果收益曲線繼續陡峭化，股息應該會變得更可持續。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1ODMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1ODMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AGNC 現在值得購買嗎？</h2>
<p>如果 MBS 與國債的收益差從歷史寬幅水平縮小，隨着銀行或其他機構重新進入 MBS 市場，AGNC 可能會在其賬面價值和股價上看到顯著恢復。這是最佳情況。然而，即使沒有發生這種情況，AGNC 仍然有空間提供穩健的總回報。</p>
<p>該公司每月支付每股 0.12 美元的股息，按最近的股價計算，收益率約為 16%。僅憑這項股息收入，它在一個似乎停滯的市場中處於強勢地位。即使投資組合價值恢復稍微温和，AGNC 在未來幾年也可能實現 20% 到 25% 的年總回報。</p>
<p>總體而言，我認為 AGNC 是一項高風險、高回報的收入投資。然而，該股票已經承受了來自高利率和寬 MBS 與國債收益差的衝擊，而當前環境可能終於開始向其有利轉變。變數在於歷史上寬的 MBS 與國債收益差是否開始縮小，因為如果縮小，潛在收益可能會非常可觀。</p>
<p>對於理解並能接受風險的投資者來説，AGNC 提供了非常高的收益率和強勁的潛在上行空間。這不是一隻可以隨意放置的股票，但在當前價格下，它可能是未來幾年收入導向投資者的明智選擇。</p>

美國資本代理公司

<p>AGNC Investment 是一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託，提供約 16% 的高股息收益率。然而，由於抵押貸款利率上升以及其有形賬面價值（TBV）大幅下降，該公司的股票已經下跌，TBV 從 2021 年到 2023 年下降了 45%。儘管面臨這些挑戰，潛在的美聯儲降息可能會改善 AGNC 的融資成本和抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）估值，使該股票更具吸引力。雖然股息並非完全安全，但如果收益率曲線變陡，它仍然是可持續的。如果 MBS 與國債的收益率差縮小，AGNC 可能會看到其賬面價值和股價的恢復</p>

<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC 0.94%) has one of the highest dividend yields in the market, sitting at about 16%. But with a stock price that's steadily declined the past few years, investors are right to ask: Is the payout sustainable, and more importantly, is the stock a buy today?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC 0.94%）在市場上擁有最高的股息收益率之一，約為 16%。但由於過去幾年股價穩步下滑，投資者有理由問：這項分紅是否可持續，更重要的是，今天的股票是否值得購買？</p>
</div><p>For those unfamiliar, AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that owns agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), primarily guaranteed by <strong>Fannie Mae</strong> and <strong>Freddie Mac</strong>. Because these securities are backed by government agencies, they carry virtually no credit risk. But AGNC's business is far from risk-free, and here's where the story gets complicated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於不熟悉的人來説，AGNC 是一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託（mREIT），擁有主要由 <strong>房利美</strong> 和 <strong>房地美</strong> 擔保的機構抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）。由於這些證券由政府機構擔保，因此幾乎沒有信用風險。但 AGNC 的業務遠非無風險，這裏故事變得複雜。</p>
</div><h2>Why AGNC has struggled</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 為何掙扎</h2>
</div><p>The biggest issue facing AGNC the past few years has been higher mortgage interest rates. There have been two main issues that have pushed up rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去幾年，AGNC 面臨的最大問題是抵押貸款利率上升。推動利率上升的主要有兩個問題。</p>
</div><p>One is that the Federal Reserve aggressively raised benchmark interest rates a couple of years ago to combat inflation. This resulted in mortgage rates also climbing. However, that was not the only reason mortgage rates shot up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其一是美聯儲在幾年前為了應對通貨膨脹而大幅提高基準利率。這導致抵押貸款利率也隨之攀升。然而，這並不是抵押貸款利率飆升的唯一原因。</p>
</div><p>Spreads between MBS yields and Treasury yields also began to significantly widen. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed was a huge buyer of MBSs, driving down yields and narrowing the yield spread between MBS and Treasuries. However, after the pandemic, it stopped purchasing MBSs and began letting them roll off its balance sheet as they matured. About the same time, banks also began to back off buying MBS as bond prices fell, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which was heavily concentrated in long-duration MBSs, only pushed banks further away from the MBS market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MBS 收益率與國債收益率之間的利差也開始顯著擴大。在 COVID-19 大流行期間，美聯儲是 MBS 的巨大買家，壓低了收益率並縮小了 MBS 與國債之間的收益差。然而，在大流行之後，美聯儲停止了購買 MBS，並開始讓其到期後從資產負債表中剔除。大約在同一時間，隨着債券價格下跌，銀行也開始減少購買 MBS，而硅谷銀行的倒閉（該行重倉長期 MBS）更是使銀行進一步遠離 MBS 市場。</p>
</div><p>During this period, the value of AGNC's MBS portfolio, as measured by its tangible book value (TBV), plunged. From the end of 2021 through the end of 2023, AGNC's tangible book dropped 45% from $15.75 to $8.70 per share. It has slipped a bit further since, and stood at $8.25 at the end of Q1 2025. Ultimately, where AGNC's TBV goes, its stock is sure to follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此期間，AGNC 的 MBS 投資組合的價值（以其有形賬面價值（TBV）衡量）暴跌。從 2021 年底到 2023 年底，AGNC 的有形賬面價值從每股 15.75 美元下降了 45%，降至 8.70 美元。此後又略微下滑，截至 2025 年第一季度末為 8.25 美元。最終，AGNC 的 TBV 走向哪裏，其股票必然會跟隨。</p>
</div><h2>What could turn things around?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什麼可能扭轉局面？</h2>
</div><p>Despite the rough stretch that AGNC has seen, the setup for the stock now looks a lot more favorable. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that more rate cuts could be on the table, and the Fed's own projections point to lower rates in the years ahead. That should be a much better environment for AGNC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 AGNC 經歷了艱難的時期，但現在股票的形勢看起來要好得多。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾已暗示可能會進一步降息，而美聯儲自己的預測也指向未來幾年利率將降低。這將為 AGNC 創造一個更好的環境。</p>
</div><p>Fed rate cuts could benefit AGNC in two main ways. First, it would likely reduce its short-term funding costs; AGNC tries to borrow money to invest in MBSs with longer maturities and higher yields. Second, lower rates could help increase its TBV by boosting MBS valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲降息可能會以兩種主要方式惠及 AGNC。首先，這可能會降低其短期融資成本；AGNC 試圖借錢投資於長期和高收益的 MBS。其次，較低的利率可能會通過提升 MBS 的估值來幫助提高其 TBV。</p>
</div><p>The past few years, the Treasury yield curve was inverted, which means that shorter-term Treasuries, like the two-year, had a higher yield than long-term Treasuries, like the 10-year. Not surprisingly, this is not a good environment for a company that generates its income from the spread between short- and long-term rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去幾年，國債收益率曲線出現倒掛，這意味着短期國債（如兩年期國債）的收益率高於長期國債（如十年期國債）。毫不奇怪，這對一家依靠短期和長期利率之間的利差來產生收入的公司來説並不是一個好環境。</p>
</div><p>Now, AGNC actively hedges out its funding costs to better align them with the duration of its MBS assets. However, it's not able to fully offset the pressure from an inverted curve over an extended period of time. With the yield curve flipping from inverted to positive (long-term yields being higher than short-term yields) late last year, though, AGNC stands to benefit from wider spreads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，AGNC 積極對沖其融資成本，以更好地與其 MBS 資產的期限對齊。然而，它無法在較長時間內完全抵消來自倒掛曲線的壓力。不過，隨着收益曲線在去年底從倒掛轉為正向（長期收益率高於短期收益率），AGNC 有望從更寬的利差中受益。</p>
</div><p>AGNC's portfolio is also well-positioned if MBS yields begin to fall. More than 80% of its holdings carry coupons of 6% or lower, which helps limit prepayment risk. Prepayment risk is highest when homeowners begin to refinance into lower-rate mortgages, forcing mortgage REITs to reinvest in lower-yielding MBS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 MBS 收益率開始下降，AGNC 的投資組合也處於良好位置。超過 80% 的持有資產的票息為 6% 或更低，這有助於限制提前還款風險。提前還款風險在房主開始再融資為低利率抵押貸款時最高，這迫使抵押貸款 REIT 重新投資於低收益的 MBS。</p>
</div><h2>Is the dividend safe?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股息安全嗎？</h2>
</div><p>While high dividend yields are attractive, they can also be a warning sign. However, AGNC has maintained the payout through a very difficult environment, albeit sometimes at the expense of a lower tangible book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然高股息收益率具有吸引力，但它們也可能是一個警告信號。然而，AGNC 在非常困難的環境中維持了分紅，儘管有時以降低有形賬面價值為代價。</p>
</div><p>It's not fair to say the dividend is completely safe, but if the yield curve continues to steepen, the dividend should become more sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>説股息完全安全並不公平，但如果收益曲線繼續陡峭化，股息應該會變得更可持續。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA1ODMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NDc4MDEwMS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820583%2Fgettyimages-1474780101.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is AGNC a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 現在值得購買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>If MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads narrow from historically wide levels as banks or other institutions reenter the MBS market, AGNC could see a meaningful recovery in both its book value and share price. That's the best-case scenario. However, even if that doesn't play out, AGNC still has room to deliver solid total returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 MBS 與國債的收益差從歷史寬幅水平縮小，隨着銀行或其他機構重新進入 MBS 市場，AGNC 可能會在其賬面價值和股價上看到顯著恢復。這是最佳情況。然而，即使沒有發生這種情況，AGNC 仍然有空間提供穩健的總回報。</p>
</div><p>The company pays a monthly dividend of $0.12 per share, which equates to a yield of about 16% based on recent prices for the stock. That dividend income alone puts it in a strong position to outperform in a market that seems to have stalled. With even a modest portfolio value recovery, AGNC could deliver annual 20% to 25% total returns during the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司每月支付每股 0.12 美元的股息，按最近的股價計算，收益率約為 16%。僅憑這項股息收入，它在一個似乎停滯的市場中處於強勢地位。即使投資組合價值恢復稍微温和，AGNC 在未來幾年也可能實現 20% 到 25% 的年總回報。</p>
</div><p>Overall, I'd consider AGNC a high-risk, high-reward income play. However, the stock has already taken the brunt of the blow from higher interest rates and wide MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads, and the current environment may finally be turning in its favor. The wild card is whether historically wide MBS-to-Treasury spreads begin to narrow, because if they do, the upside could be significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，我認為 AGNC 是一項高風險、高回報的收入投資。然而，該股票已經承受了來自高利率和寬 MBS 與國債收益差的衝擊，而當前環境可能終於開始向其有利轉變。變數在於歷史上寬的 MBS 與國債收益差是否開始縮小，因為如果縮小，潛在收益可能會非常可觀。</p>
</div><p>For investors who understand and are comfortable with the risks, AGNC offers a very high yield with strong potential upside. It's not a set-it-and-forget-it stock, but at current prices, it could be a smart investment for income-focused investors during the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於理解並能接受風險的投資者來説，AGNC 提供了非常高的收益率和強勁的潛在上行空間。這不是一隻可以隨意放置的股票，但在當前價格下，它可能是未來幾年收入導向投資者的明智選擇。</p>
</div>

AGNC Investment: Its High Yield Looks Tempting -- Why the Stock May Be Ready to Rebound

- AGNC Investment 的股息收益率約為 16%，但股價持續下跌。  
- 主要問題是高抵押貸款利率和 MBS 與國債收益率的差距擴大。  
- 若利率下降，AGNC 可能實現股價和賬面價值的顯著回升。

美國資本代理公司的高收益看起來很誘人——為什麼該股票可能會準備反彈