<p>今年對投資者來説已經證明是一次過山車般的經歷。在短短几周內，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 下跌近 19%，但隨後幾乎同樣迅速地反彈，現在徘徊在 2 月份的峯值以下。</p>
<p>然而，這種過山車的經歷與 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）的股票相比顯得微不足道。投資者看到該股在去年年底至 4 月期間下滑超過 50%，然後反彈了驚人的 62%，又再次下跌近 20%。</p>
<p>這次反彈主要是由於公司首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克的迴歸，他的缺席被廣泛認為是股票急劇下跌的主要原因。然而，現在他與唐納德·特朗普總統的&#34;美麗大法案&#34;的分歧讓投資者感到擔憂。因此，在經歷瞭如此多的起伏以及他獨特的領導者回歸之際，問問自己：特斯拉的股票在五年後會在哪裏？</p>
<h2>特斯拉首先是一家汽車公司</h2>
<p>毫無疑問，馬斯克對未來有着引人注目的願景。機器人出租車和個人機器人輕易地吸引了人們的想象力。然而，投資者必須清楚地區分什麼是現實，什麼是可能。在其核心，特斯拉是一家汽車公司，特別是一家電動車（EV）製造商；大約 90% 的 2024 年收入來自其電動車業務。</p>
<p>從這個角度來看，特斯拉令人印象深刻。隨着 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid</strong> 等電動車競爭對手繼續出現淨虧損，特斯拉自 2020 年以來一直保持盈利。與傳統汽車製造巨頭相比，特斯拉的盈利能力更為突出：儘管特斯拉的銷量約為 <strong>福特</strong> 或 <strong>通用汽車</strong> 的一半，但其利潤卻更高。下面的圖表清楚地顯示了這種明顯的差異。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03354a3f66da3fc69b805fe8dc48edc1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="575" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03354a3f66da3fc69b805fe8dc48edc1.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 收入（TTM）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的銷售面臨壓力</h2>
<p>現在，儘管這令人印象深刻，但你可能會注意到特斯拉過去一年的淨收入方向。在過去兩個季度中，特斯拉的淨收入同比下降了至少 70%。</p>
<p>這種下滑趨勢在公司的銷售中也有所反映，儘管由於規模原因在圖表中很難看出。特斯拉的總收入在過去五個季度中的兩個季度同比下降了大約 9%。在另外兩個季度中，僅增長了略超過 2%，這個增長率可以説是微弱的。這不是你希望看到的來自一家如此高估值公司的增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5NDMvdGVzbGEtMjAyNi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5NDMvdGVzbGEtMjAyNi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>雖然這些趨勢總是有多種因素驅動，但顯然主要驅動因素是競爭加劇，以及最近品牌形象嚴重受損。作為早期的先驅，特斯拉的先發優勢使其迅速佔據了電動車市場的大部分份額。隨着競爭對手在質量和成本上趕上甚至超越特斯拉，這一領先地位正在迅速消失。</p>
<p>事實上，市場現在充滿了來自優質公司的先進電動車，這些電動車的價格往往更具競爭力。這在中國尤其如此，中國是特斯拉的一個關鍵市場，國內公司如 <strong>比亞迪</strong> 正在超越特斯拉。</p>
<h2>馬斯克效應</h2>
<p>最近，埃隆·馬斯克涉足政治無疑對特斯拉的品牌造成了損害。品牌研究公司的一項分析發現，馬斯克最近在政治聚光燈下的爭議性表現使特斯拉的品牌價值下降了 26%。</p>
<p>馬斯克在政府效率部（DOGE）任職期間，他對德國極右翼政治的支持，以及他在網上的政治對抗，導致全球銷售急劇下降。4 月份，特斯拉在歐盟的銷售同比下降近 50%。同月，歐盟整體電動車銷售增長了 34%。</p>
<p>一度似乎馬斯克已經吸取了教訓。當他宣佈重返特斯拉並開始退出特朗普政府時，似乎他想修復自己的形象，遠離&#34;攪局&#34;。</p>
<p>但這種情況並沒有持續多久。上週，馬斯克在 X 平台上批評特朗普的法案。總統對此並不滿意，兩人很快在各自的社交媒體平台上展開了一場極為公開的爭吵，迅速變得個人化。事態升級到特朗普建議取消 SpaceX 與政府的合同。</p>
<p>顯然，馬斯克在這一屆政府中享有的內部關係可能已經消失，或者至少受到嚴重損害。</p>
<h2>通往 2030 年的道路</h2>
<p>那麼，特斯拉的股票在五年後會在哪裏？借用體育界的一句話：這取決於哪個特斯拉出現——以及哪個埃隆·馬斯克。如果是那個極具創新性、開創性並且引領潮流的公司，幫助將電動車市場發展到今天的樣子，那麼前景將會光明。在這種情況下，特斯拉將實現完全自動駕駛技術，推出成功的機器人出租車業務，並在其機器人技術上取得重大進展。</p>
<p>如果是過去幾年停滯不前的特斯拉，那家過度承諾而未能兑現的特斯拉，那麼接下來的五年對投資者來説可能會很艱難。雖然我認為，像大多數事情一樣，真相在中間，但我更傾向於後者。考慮到特斯拉股票中已經包含的鉅額未來增長——在收入停滯和盈利下降的情況下，市盈率超過 160 並不是常態——我不推薦這隻股票。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

南方兩倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票經歷了顯著的波動，先是下跌超過 50%，隨後反彈 62%，這在很大程度上受到首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克迴歸的影響。儘管特斯拉是領先的電動汽車製造商，但其淨收入在最近幾個季度同比下降了 70%，銷售受到日益激烈的競爭和受損的品牌形象的壓力。馬斯克的政治參與進一步影響了特斯拉的品牌價值，導致銷售顯著下降，尤其是在歐盟市場。特斯拉股票的未來仍然不確定，因為它面臨來自競爭對手和品牌認知問題的挑戰</p>

<p>This year has already proven to be quite a roller coaster for investors. After falling nearly 19% in the span of just a few weeks, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> recovered almost as quickly as it fell, now hovering just below its peak in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年對投資者來説已經證明是一次過山車般的經歷。在短短几周內，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 下跌近 19%，但隨後幾乎同樣迅速地反彈，現在徘徊在 2 月份的峯值以下。</p>
</div><p>Still, that rollercoaster ride pales in comparison to that of <strong>Tesla</strong>'s (TSLA 2.00%) stock. Investors watched shares slide more than 50% from their high near the end of last year through April, before rebounding a whopping 62% and again falling nearly 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這種過山車的經歷與 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）的股票相比顯得微不足道。投資者看到該股在去年年底至 4 月期間下滑超過 50%，然後反彈了驚人的 62%，又再次下跌近 20%。</p>
</div><p>This recovery has been primarily driven by the return of the company's CEO, Elon Musk, whose absence has been widely considered as a major driver of the stock's precipitous decline. Now, however, his disagreement with President Donald Trump's &#34;Big Beautiful Bill&#34; is worrying investors. So, with all of this up and down and its inimitable leader back at the helm, it's a good time to ask: Where will Tesla stock be in five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這次反彈主要是由於公司首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克的迴歸，他的缺席被廣泛認為是股票急劇下跌的主要原因。然而，現在他與唐納德·特朗普總統的&#34;美麗大法案&#34;的分歧讓投資者感到擔憂。因此，在經歷瞭如此多的起伏以及他獨特的領導者回歸之際，問問自己：特斯拉的股票在五年後會在哪裏？</p>
</div><h2>Tesla is a car company first and foremost</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉首先是一家汽車公司</h2>
</div><p>There's no denying that Musk has a compelling vision of the future. Robotaxis and personal robots easily capture the imagination. However, it's critical for investors to delineate between what <em>is</em> and what <em>could be</em>. At its core, Tesla is a car company, specifically an electric vehicle (EV) maker; roughly 90% of the company's 2024 revenue came from its EV business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，馬斯克對未來有着引人注目的願景。機器人出租車和個人機器人輕易地吸引了人們的想象力。然而，投資者必須清楚地區分什麼是現實，什麼是可能。在其核心，特斯拉是一家汽車公司，特別是一家電動車（EV）製造商；大約 90% 的 2024 年收入來自其電動車業務。</p>
</div><p>And from this perspective, Tesla is impressive. As EV competitors like <strong>Rivian</strong> and <strong>Lucid</strong> continue to deliver net losses, Tesla has operated in the black since 2020. And when compared to legacy carmaking giants, Tesla's profitability stands out: Despite having about half the sales of <strong>Ford</strong> or <strong>General Motors</strong>, Tesla makes more in profit. The stark difference is clear in the chart below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從這個角度來看，特斯拉令人印象深刻。隨着 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid</strong> 等電動車競爭對手繼續出現淨虧損，特斯拉自 2020 年以來一直保持盈利。與傳統汽車製造巨頭相比，特斯拉的盈利能力更為突出：儘管特斯拉的銷量約為 <strong>福特</strong> 或 <strong>通用汽車</strong> 的一半，但其利潤卻更高。下面的圖表清楚地顯示了這種明顯的差異。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03354a3f66da3fc69b805fe8dc48edc1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03354a3f66da3fc69b805fe8dc48edc1.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 收入（TTM）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla is seeing its sales pressured</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的銷售面臨壓力</h2>
</div><p>Now, as impressive as this is, you may notice the direction of Tesla's net income over the last year. In both of the last two quarters, Tesla's net income fell by at least 70% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，儘管這令人印象深刻，但你可能會注意到特斯拉過去一年的淨收入方向。在過去兩個季度中，特斯拉的淨收入同比下降了至少 70%。</p>
</div><p>This downward trend is reflected in the company's sales as well, although that's hard to make out in the chart because of the scale. Tesla's top-line revenue fell by roughly 9% year over year in two of the last five quarters. In two others, it grew by just over 2%, a rate you might call anemic. That is not the kind of growth you want to see from a company as highly valued as Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種下滑趨勢在公司的銷售中也有所反映，儘管由於規模原因在圖表中很難看出。特斯拉的總收入在過去五個季度中的兩個季度同比下降了大約 9%。在另外兩個季度中，僅增長了略超過 2%，這個增長率可以説是微弱的。這不是你希望看到的來自一家如此高估值公司的增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjA5NDMvdGVzbGEtMjAyNi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F820943%2Ftesla-2026.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>While these kinds of trends always have multiple factors driving them, it seems clear that the primary drivers are increasing competition and, more recently, a severely damaged brand. As an early pioneer, Tesla's head start allowed it to quickly capture the bulk of the EV market. That lead is quickly eroding as competitors catch up to -- and in some cases surpass -- Tesla in quality and cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這些趨勢總是有多種因素驅動，但顯然主要驅動因素是競爭加劇，以及最近品牌形象嚴重受損。作為早期的先驅，特斯拉的先發優勢使其迅速佔據了電動車市場的大部分份額。隨着競爭對手在質量和成本上趕上甚至超越特斯拉，這一領先地位正在迅速消失。</p>
</div><p>The fact is, the market is now filled with advanced EVs from quality companies that are often priced more competitively. This is especially true in China, a crucial market for Tesla, where domestic companies like <strong>BYD</strong> are outpacing Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，市場現在充滿了來自優質公司的先進電動車，這些電動車的價格往往更具競爭力。這在中國尤其如此，中國是特斯拉的一個關鍵市場，國內公司如 <strong>比亞迪</strong> 正在超越特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>The Musk effect</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>馬斯克效應</h2>
</div><p>More recently, Elon Musk's foray into politics has arguably done damage to Tesla's brand. An analysis by Brand Research, which actually quantifies the value of a brand, found that Elon's recent and often controversial time in the political spotlight reduced Tesla's brand value by 26%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，埃隆·馬斯克涉足政治無疑對特斯拉的品牌造成了損害。品牌研究公司的一項分析發現，馬斯克最近在政治聚光燈下的爭議性表現使特斯拉的品牌價值下降了 26%。</p>
</div><p>Musk's time at the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), his support of German far-right politics, and his general online political antagonism have led to a precipitous sales decline across the globe. April saw a nearly 50% drop in Tesla's E.U. sales year over year. The same month saw a 34% increase in overall EV sales in the E.U.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬斯克在政府效率部（DOGE）任職期間，他對德國極右翼政治的支持，以及他在網上的政治對抗，導致全球銷售急劇下降。4 月份，特斯拉在歐盟的銷售同比下降近 50%。同月，歐盟整體電動車銷售增長了 34%。</p>
</div><p>It seemed for a moment that Musk had learned his lesson. As he announced his return to Tesla and began his exit from the Trump administration, it seemed he wanted to repair his image and step away from &#34;stirring the pot,&#34; so to speak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一度似乎馬斯克已經吸取了教訓。當他宣佈重返特斯拉並開始退出特朗普政府時，似乎他想修復自己的形象，遠離&#34;攪局&#34;。</p>
</div><p>That was short-lived. Last week, Musk took to X to criticize Trump's bill. The president was not pleased, and the two soon fell into an extremely public spat on their respective social media platforms that quickly turned personal. It escalated to the point that Trump suggested SpaceX's contracts with the government be canceled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這種情況並沒有持續多久。上週，馬斯克在 X 平台上批評特朗普的法案。總統對此並不滿意，兩人很快在各自的社交媒體平台上展開了一場極為公開的爭吵，迅速變得個人化。事態升級到特朗普建議取消 SpaceX 與政府的合同。</p>
</div><p>It's clear that the inside track Musk enjoyed with this administration could very well be gone, or at the very least, severely damaged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顯然，馬斯克在這一屆政府中享有的內部關係可能已經消失，或者至少受到嚴重損害。</p>
</div><h2>The road to 2030</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通往 2030 年的道路</h2>
</div><p>So, where will Tesla stock be in five years? To borrow a phrase from the sports world: That depends on which Tesla shows up -- and for that matter, which Elon Musk. If it is the incredibly innovative, groundbreaking, and pioneering company that helped build the EV market to what it is today, then things will look bright. In this case, Tesla will have achieved full self-driving technology, launched a successful robotaxi enterprise, and made major advancements in its robotics technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，特斯拉的股票在五年後會在哪裏？借用體育界的一句話：這取決於哪個特斯拉出現——以及哪個埃隆·馬斯克。如果是那個極具創新性、開創性並且引領潮流的公司，幫助將電動車市場發展到今天的樣子，那麼前景將會光明。在這種情況下，特斯拉將實現完全自動駕駛技術，推出成功的機器人出租車業務，並在其機器人技術上取得重大進展。</p>
</div><p>If it is the stagnant Tesla of the last few years, the Tesla that overpromises and underdelivers, the next five years could be rough for investors. While I think, like most things, the truth is somewhere in the middle, my money is on things leaning heavily toward the latter case. And given the enormous amount of future growth already baked into Tesla stock -- a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 160 while revenue stagnates and earnings fall is not the norm -- I would not recommend this stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果是過去幾年停滯不前的特斯拉，那家過度承諾而未能兑現的特斯拉，那麼接下來的五年對投資者來説可能會很艱難。雖然我認為，像大多數事情一樣，真相在中間，但我更傾向於後者。考慮到特斯拉股票中已經包含的鉅額未來增長——在收入停滯和盈利下降的情況下，市盈率超過 160 並不是常態——我不推薦這隻股票。</p>
</div>

Where Will Tesla Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 特斯拉股價經歷劇烈波動，CEO 馬斯克的迴歸引發關注。  
- 競爭加劇和品牌受損導致特斯拉淨收入和銷售下滑。  
- 投資者需警惕未來五年特斯拉的增長潛力。  

五年後特斯拉的股票會處於什麼位置？