<p>今天，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）面臨着諸多不確定性。其電動車（EV）銷量正在下降，首席執行官曾是美國總統的顧問，但現在關係變得更加冷淡，同時公司正在投資於多項新技術，以推動未來的增長。我們目前正目睹一家處於十字路口的公司；接下來的幾年對特斯拉及其股票的長期走勢至關重要，目前其市值為 1 萬億美元。</p><p>這是我對特斯拉未來發展的預測，以及這對股票的意義。</p><h2 id="8fqfwjc5">增加的電動車競爭，尤其是在海外</h2><p>在過去幾年中，電動車競爭對特斯拉的主導市場地位構成了威脅。在美國，特斯拉的新電動車銷量市場份額已降至 43.5%，而 2022 年初為 75%，這一趨勢可能會隨着傳統汽車製造商及其他公司的電動車產品日益增多而持續。</p><p>在美國以外，情況更為嚴峻。在中國——特斯拉最大的市場之一——該公司正遭受來自 <strong>比亞迪</strong> 等本土競爭者的猛烈衝擊，比亞迪現在在全球的汽車銷量上遠超特斯拉。特斯拉的交付數字正朝着錯誤的方向發展。</p><p>所有這些因素導致特斯拉不得不大幅降低新車售價，以激發更多客户需求，儘管這並沒有對局勢產生太大影響。特斯拉的汽車收入在上個季度同比下降了 20%。其 70 億美元的營業收入已經連續多年走低，顯示出電動車業務在銷量和售價下降的壓力下所面臨的困境。</p><p>我預測在未來幾年，特斯拉的電動車銷量將面臨更多困境，尤其是來自全球競爭對手，特別是中國的汽車供應不斷增加。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/feef4f8f6b79d7509026f4986406e191?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="403" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/feef4f8f6b79d7509026f4986406e191"/></figure><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="yaob0z4it">一如既往的延遲新舉措</h2><p>特斯拉多年來承諾將擴展業務，不僅限於電動車銷售。這包括可再生能源、機器人技術、人工智能（AI）和無人駕駛機器人出租車，以幫助股票達到下一個水平。雖然公司的電池組業務在上個季度取得了 27 億美元的收入，同比增長 67%，但其他這些舉措卻不斷被炒作後又延遲。</p><p>最重要的是機器人出租車和無人駕駛汽車的計劃。埃隆·馬斯克聲稱，特斯拉的無人駕駛汽車距離向公眾發佈僅一步之遙。他再次表示，特斯拉的機器人出租車將在德克薩斯州奧斯汀推出，原定於 6 月 12 日發佈。現在，推遲到本月晚些時候發佈，儘管我不抱太大希望。特斯拉在歷史上曾多次聲稱推出此類產品，最著名的是 2019 年 “年底前路上有一百萬輛機器人出租車” 的宣言。</p><p>雖然特斯拉最終實現其機器人出租車目標並非不可能，但考慮到過去多次承諾未能實現，這次成功的可能性應該不大。為什麼這次會有所不同呢？</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f20007ccbf90e29e7830eef4278dd367?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f20007ccbf90e29e7830eef4278dd367"/></figure><p>TSLA 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p><h2 id="hqaas12sb">這對特斯拉股票價格的意義</h2><p>特斯拉的股票價格在很大程度上押注於公司在傳統電動車銷售之外的未來潛力。最近，埃隆·馬斯克聲稱，機器人技術可以幫助特斯拉的市值達到 30 萬億美元，使其成為全球最有價值的公司。</p><p>這個想法與其當前的 1 萬億美元市值相比，似乎有些不切實際，但投資者需要放棄這種樂觀情緒，迴歸現實。類人機器人仍處於非常早期的開發階段，目前尚不清楚特斯拉是否是這一領域的領導者。機器人出租車一次又一次未能推出。Cybertruck 是一個重大失敗，可能讓公司損失了數十億美元。</p><p>我們剩下的只有一個小型的低利潤能源存儲業務和一個正在衰退的電動車業務。在 175 的市盈率下，特斯拉股票今天看起來對投資者來説是一個糟糕的選擇。我的預測是，未來幾年股東將面臨更多痛苦。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

南方兩倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉麪臨重大挑戰，因為其電動車銷量下降，競爭加劇，尤其是來自中國製造商的競爭。該公司在美國的市場份額已從 75% 降至 43.5%，汽車收入同比下降 20%。承諾的機器人和自動駕駛技術擴展一再推遲，令未來增長的前景充滿疑慮。由於市盈率高達 175，股票似乎是一個不佳的投資，預測顯示未來幾年股東將面臨持續困難</p>

<p>Uncertainty abounds for <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.00%) today. Its electric vehicle (EV) sales are now declining, its CEO was an advisor to the President of the United States but how has a frostier relationship, and it is investing in numerous new technologies to try to drive future growth. We are currently witnessing a company at a crossroads; the next few years are crucial for Tesla and the long-term trajectory of its stock price, currently at a current market value of $1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.00%）面臨着諸多不確定性。其電動車（EV）銷量正在下降，首席執行官曾是美國總統的顧問，但現在關係變得更加冷淡，同時公司正在投資於多項新技術，以推動未來的增長。我們目前正目睹一家處於十字路口的公司；接下來的幾年對特斯拉及其股票的長期走勢至關重要，目前其市值為 1 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>Here's my prediction on what comes next for Tesla, and what it means for the stock going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是我對特斯拉未來發展的預測，以及這對股票的意義。</p>
</div><h2>More EV competition, especially abroad</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增加的電動車競爭，尤其是在海外</h2>
</div><p>In the last few years, EV competition has come for Tesla's dominant market position. In the United States, Tesla's market share of new EV sales has dropped to 43.5% compared to 75% at the start of 2022, a trend that may continue with the growing presence of EV products from legacy car manufacturers and others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年中，電動車競爭對特斯拉的主導市場地位構成了威脅。在美國，特斯拉的新電動車銷量市場份額已降至 43.5%，而 2022 年初為 75%，這一趨勢可能會隨着傳統汽車製造商及其他公司的電動車產品日益增多而持續。</p>
</div><p>Outside of the United States, the numbers look even worse. In China -- one of Tesla's largest markets -- the company is getting pummeled by local players like <strong>BYD</strong>, which now sells more cars globally than Tesla by a wide margin. Tesla's delivery numbers are moving in the wrong direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國以外，情況更為嚴峻。在中國——特斯拉最大的市場之一——該公司正遭受來自 <strong>比亞迪</strong> 等本土競爭者的猛烈衝擊，比亞迪現在在全球的汽車銷量上遠超特斯拉。特斯拉的交付數字正朝着錯誤的方向發展。</p>
</div><p>All this has led Tesla to aggressively drop its selling prices for new vehicles to try to inspire more customer demand, although this has not done much to turn the tide. Tesla's automotive revenue sank 20% year over year last quarter. Its operating income of $7 billion has been moving in the wrong direction for multiple years now, showing the pressure the EV business is facing with declining volumes and selling prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些因素導致特斯拉不得不大幅降低新車售價，以激發更多客户需求，儘管這並沒有對局勢產生太大影響。特斯拉的汽車收入在上個季度同比下降了 20%。其 70 億美元的營業收入已經連續多年走低，顯示出電動車業務在銷量和售價下降的壓力下所面臨的困境。</p>
</div><p>I predict more pain for Tesla's EV sales over the next few years with the rising supply of cars available from competitors around the globe, especially from China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我預測在未來幾年，特斯拉的電動車銷量將面臨更多困境，尤其是來自全球競爭對手，特別是中國的汽車供應不斷增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE1OTgvaHVtYW5vaWQtcm9ib3QuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821598%2Fhumanoid-robot.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Delayed new initiatives, as usual</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一如既往的延遲新舉措</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has promised for years an expansion away from just EV sales. This includes into renewable energy, robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and self-driving robotaxis to help take the stock to the next level. While the company's battery pack business has had some semblance of success -- generating $2.7 billion in revenue last quarter and growing 67% year over year -- the rest of these initiatives keep getting hyped and then delayed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉多年來承諾將擴展業務，不僅限於電動車銷售。這包括可再生能源、機器人技術、人工智能（AI）和無人駕駛機器人出租車，以幫助股票達到下一個水平。雖然公司的電池組業務在上個季度取得了 27 億美元的收入，同比增長 67%，但其他這些舉措卻不斷被炒作後又延遲。</p>
</div><p>Most important is the robotaxi and self-driving car initiative. Elon Musk has claimed for a decade that self-driving Tesla vehicles are just around the corner from being released to the public. He is saying so again with the potential launch of Tesla robotaxis with no humans at the wheel in Austin, Texas, which was supposed to happen on June 12. Now, the delay is for a release later this month, although I wouldn't cross your fingers. Tesla has claimed launches such as these repeatedly in its history, most famously with the &#34;one million robotaxis on the road by the end of the year&#34; proclamation in 2019.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的是機器人出租車和無人駕駛汽車的計劃。埃隆·馬斯克聲稱，特斯拉的無人駕駛汽車距離向公眾發佈僅一步之遙。他再次表示，特斯拉的機器人出租車將在德克薩斯州奧斯汀推出，原定於 6 月 12 日發佈。現在，推遲到本月晚些時候發佈，儘管我不抱太大希望。特斯拉在歷史上曾多次聲稱推出此類產品，最著名的是 2019 年 “年底前路上有一百萬輛機器人出租車” 的宣言。</p>
</div><p>While it isn't impossible for Tesla to finally accomplish its robotaxi goal, the odds should be against this occurring given how many times it has been promised and then failed to happen. Why would this time be any different?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然特斯拉最終實現其機器人出租車目標並非不可能，但考慮到過去多次承諾未能實現，這次成功的可能性應該不大。為什麼這次會有所不同呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9feeafc441c9495fe68814cb2cf094.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9feeafc441c9495fe68814cb2cf094.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>What it all means for Tesla's stock price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這對特斯拉股票價格的意義</h2>
</div><p>A lot of Tesla's stock price is betting on the future potential of the company's initiatives outside of traditional EV sales. Most recently, Elon Musk claimed that robotics could help Tesla's market cap get to $30 trillion, making it by far the most valuable company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的股票價格在很大程度上押注於公司在傳統電動車銷售之外的未來潛力。最近，埃隆·馬斯克聲稱，機器人技術可以幫助特斯拉的市值達到 30 萬億美元，使其成為全球最有價值的公司。</p>
</div><p>That idea may seem fanciful compared to its current market cap of $1 trillion, but investors need to back off this optimism and return to reality. Humanoid robots are still in the very early stages of development, and it is unclear whether Tesla is the leader here. Robotaxis have failed to launch time and time again. The Cybertruck was a major flop and likely lost the company billions of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個想法與其當前的 1 萬億美元市值相比，似乎有些不切實際，但投資者需要放棄這種樂觀情緒，迴歸現實。類人機器人仍處於非常早期的開發階段，目前尚不清楚特斯拉是否是這一領域的領導者。機器人出租車一次又一次未能推出。Cybertruck 是一個重大失敗，可能讓公司損失了數十億美元。</p>
</div><p>All we have left is a small energy storage business with low margins and a declining EV business. At a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 175, Tesla stock looks like a poor bet for investors today. My prediction is more pain for shareholders in the years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們剩下的只有一個小型的低利潤能源存儲業務和一個正在衰退的電動車業務。在 175 的市盈率下，特斯拉股票今天看起來對投資者來説是一個糟糕的選擇。我的預測是，未來幾年股東將面臨更多痛苦。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Here's What Comes Next for Tesla, and What It Could Mean for Its Stock Price

- 特斯拉麪臨電動車銷量下降和競爭加劇的挑戰。  
- 在美國市場，特斯拉的市場份額已降至 43.5%。  
- 未來幾年，特斯拉股價可能繼續承壓。  

預測：特斯拉接下來會發生什麼，以及這可能對其股價產生什麼影響