<p>在我 18 歲生日不久後，我開設了我的第一個經紀賬户，選擇了 E*TRADE。再過幾個月，我將慶祝我作為投資者的第 27 個年頭，以及我總共的第 28 個年頭，回顧股票和市場的運作。</p>
<p>我可以毫無疑問地説，總有新的東西可以學習，總有一隻股票可以讓人感到意外。</p>
<p>例如，我對人工智能（AI）革命的代表，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.87%），一直持懷疑態度。自 2023 年開始，Nvidia 不僅打破了反對者的評論，還增加了超過 3 萬億美元的市值。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 圖形處理單元（GPU）無疑是運營 AI 加速數據中心的企業的首選。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>但我也見過像 Nvidia 這樣的故事在之前上演。儘管圍繞顛覆性創新的炒作似乎難以抵擋，但有確鑿的歷史和統計原因表明，Nvidia 確實是有缺陷的。</p>
<p>接下來是來自一位在 27 年中見證了許多下一個大趨勢的投資者的 10 個理由，建議放棄 Nvidia 股票。</p>
<h2>1. 下一個大趨勢往往伴隨着早期泡沫</h2>
<p>歷史提供了一個最有説服力的理由，讓人遠離 Nvidia 股票。自 1990 年代中期互聯網出現以來，每一次重大的技術飛躍都導致了一個早期泡沫的形成並最終破裂。雖然無法提前知道這個泡沫何時會破裂，但下一個大趨勢和泡沫已經伴隨了超過三十年。</p>
<p>簡單的事實是，大多數企業尚未優化其 AI 解決方案，也未能從其 AI 投資中獲利，這強烈表明投資者再次高估了顛覆性創新的採用率和早期效用。這對 Nvidia 來説是個壞消息。</p>
<h2>2. 外部競爭者正在加大生產</h2>
<p>儘管 Nvidia 在當前部署於 AI 加速數據中心的 GPU 中佔據近乎壟斷的份額，但這種情況不太可能長期維持。Nvidia 已經售出了 2025 年能銷售的所有 GPU，這意味着對硬件需求旺盛的企業將尋求其他途徑以獲得競爭優勢。</p>
<p>像 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>（AMD -0.20%）這樣的外部供應商正在迅速擴大生產，並推出新的 AI 加速芯片。AMD 的 Instinct 系列芯片顯著便宜且更易獲得，這表明它應該能夠輕鬆削弱 Nvidia 在數據中心市場的領先地位。</p>
<h2>3. 內部競爭將佔用寶貴的數據中心空間</h2>
<p>然而，可以説內部競爭對 Nvidia 未來的威脅更大，也是放棄其股票的主要原因之一。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的一些主要客户正在內部開發 AI-GPU 和解決方案，以在其數據中心中使用。雖然這些芯片不會在外部與 Hopper 和 Blackwell 競爭，但它們將佔用 Nvidia 無法贏得的寶貴數據中心空間。此外，Nvidia 主要客户內部開發的硬件比 Hopper 和 Blackwell 便宜得多。</p>
<h2>4. 首席執行官黃仁勳的創新週期可能會對公司造成干擾</h2>
<p>通常，創新對科技公司至關重要。Nvidia 首席執行官黃仁勳不遺餘力地確保公司保持計算優勢。黃仁勳試圖每年推出一款新的先進 AI-GPU，Blackwell Ultra 將在今年晚些時候首次亮相，隨後是 2026 年和 2027 年的 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra。</p>
<p>令人擔憂的是，黃仁勳加速的創新週期可能會迅速貶值前一代芯片，並迫使企業轉向成本更低的選擇。每年推出一款新芯片也可能會讓關鍵客户感到不滿，從而選擇推遲升級週期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0202b62f37dd3b75f16dbb11f9131b6f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0202b62f37dd3b75f16dbb11f9131b6f.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 毛利率（季度）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>5. 其毛利率已經在下降</h2>
<p>Nvidia 在 AI 領域最大的競爭優勢是其能夠利用 AI-GPU 的稀缺性。只要 GPU 需求超過供應，Nvidia 就可以顯著提高價格，增加生產，並從中受益。</p>
<p>但我們已經觀察到 AI-GPU 稀缺性正在減弱的跡象。儘管全球領先的芯片製造公司 <strong>台灣半導體制造</strong> 仍無法滿足需求，儘管其正在迅速擴大其芯片在基板上的生產能力，Nvidia 已經連續四個季度報告了公認會計原則（GAAP）毛利率的下降。雖然公司預計當前季度 GAAP 毛利率會有所反彈，但這四個季度的下降表明外部和內部競爭正在減少 Nvidia 所珍視的 AI-GPU 稀缺性。</p>
<h2>6. 出口限制正在扼殺一個關鍵市場</h2>
<p>另一個考慮放棄 Nvidia 股票的原因是對中國的出口限制持續存在，而中國是該公司最重要的單一市場之一，每季度產生數十億美元的銷售額。</p>
<p>對高性能 AI 芯片的出口限制之所以獨特，是因為這是喬·拜登政府和唐納德·特朗普政府少數幾項意見一致的政策之一。在過去三年中，聯邦政府一直阻礙 Nvidia 頂級 AI 硬件向世界第二大經濟體的出口。考慮到特朗普總統專注於國家安全和使美國成為人工智能領導者，這些限制似乎在短期內不太可能放鬆。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvdGFyaWZmcy1lY29ub215LXRyYWRlLXdhci11cy1jaGluYS1vbmUtaHVuZHJlZC1kb2xsYXItY2FzaC10YXgtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvdGFyaWZmcy1lY29ub215LXRyYWRlLXdhci11cy1jaGluYS1vbmUtaHVuZHJlZC1kb2xsYXItY2FzaC10YXgtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>7. 關税對利潤的威脅是次要的</h2>
<p>除了英偉達的關鍵產品被限制出口到中國外，特朗普總統的關税和貿易政策還威脅到公司的擴張計劃。</p>
<p>實施全面的全球關税，以及對與美國曆史上存在不利貿易失衡的特定國家提高 “對等關税率”，有可能加劇與關鍵合作伙伴的貿易關係，並可能引發對某些商品的反美情緒。此外，可能會對半導體和/或人工智能供應鏈的各個方面徵收關税，這最終可能削弱英偉達的毛利率。</p>
<h2>8. 內部人士在 54 個月內沒有進行購買</h2>
<p>如果你需要另一個明確的理由來放棄英偉達的股票，不妨看看公司的內部交易活動，這些活動需要向證券交易委員會備案。</p>
<p>在 2020 年 12 月，首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯的兩個兒子各購買了 100 股英偉達的股票。這次購買發生在 54 個月前，是最後一次有高管、董事會成員或直系親屬購買股票。相比之下，自克雷斯在 2020 年提交的 Form 4 以來，內部人士進行了 172 次獨立的股票出售。</p>
<p>雖然有很多理由可以出售股票（並非所有理由都令人擔憂），但購買股票的理由只有一個：你相信股票會升值。如果英偉達的內部人士不在買入，你為什麼要買呢？</p>
<h2>9. 億萬富翁持續出售英偉達股票</h2>
<p>除了億萬富翁查斯·科爾曼（Chase Coleman）外，華爾街最聰明的億萬富翁投資經理在過去一年中一直在持續出售英偉達股票。這包括杜肯家族辦公室的斯坦利·德魯肯米勒和孤松資本的斯蒂芬·曼德爾，他們都完全退出了曾經相當可觀的在這家人工智能巨頭的持股。</p>
<p>儘管億萬富翁投資者完全有可能犯錯，但值得注意的是，絕大多數大型對沖基金已經兑現了他們的籌碼或大幅減少了他們的持倉，正如阿帕盧薩的戴維·泰珀、科圖管理的菲利普·拉豐和千禧管理的以色列·英格蘭德所示。上述一些因素可能在他們決定出售或減少持倉時發揮了作用。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ed36e9eefb920771bcf1979a5951eea.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ed36e9eefb920771bcf1979a5951eea.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。PS 比率=市銷率。</p>
<h2>10. 英偉達估值的一個關鍵方面仍然沒有意義</h2>
<p>最後但同樣重要的是，英偉達的估值並沒有它所聲稱的那麼好。儘管其前瞻性市盈率為 25 並不算過高，但其過去 12 個月（TTM）的市銷率為 24，相對於其他在下一波趨勢中處於領先地位的巨頭股票來説，仍然處於高位。</p>
<p>例如，互聯網發展的關鍵參與者，如 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>微軟</strong> 和 <strong>思科系統</strong>，在互聯網泡沫破裂之前，其 TTM 市銷率均達到了 30 到 43 的高點。或許並非巧合，英偉達的 TTM 市銷率在去年夏天達到了 42。然而，基於歷史數據，24 的市銷率仍然過高，難以持續。</p>

英偉達

<p>一位經驗豐富的投資者分享了避免投資英偉達股票的 10 個理由，提到了科技泡沫的歷史趨勢、來自 AMD 等公司的競爭加劇，以及客户開發自有 AI 芯片帶來的內部競爭。還有一些擔憂，包括首席執行官黃仁勳的快速創新週期可能會對公司造成干擾、毛利率下降，以及出口限制影響關鍵市場。投資者警告稱，儘管英偉達在 AI 領域表現出色，但市場格局正在變化，使其成為一項風險投資</p>

<p>Not long after my 18th birthday, I opened my first brokerage account with E*TRADE. In just a few months, I'll be celebrating my 27th year as an investor, and my 28th, in total, following what makes stocks and the market tick.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我 18 歲生日不久後，我開設了我的第一個經紀賬户，選擇了 E*TRADE。再過幾個月，我將慶祝我作為投資者的第 27 個年頭，以及我總共的第 28 個年頭，回顧股票和市場的運作。</p>
</div><p>I can say, without question, there's always something new to learn and a stock that can prove a person wrong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我可以毫無疑問地説，總有新的東西可以學習，總有一隻股票可以讓人感到意外。</p>
</div><p>For example, I've been decisively skeptical of the face of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.87%). All Nvidia has done is blow naysayer commentary out of the water and tack on more than $3 trillion in market cap since 2023 began. Nvidia's Hopper (H100) and Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) have been the undeniable top options by businesses operating AI-accelerated data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，我對人工智能（AI）革命的代表，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.87%），一直持懷疑態度。自 2023 年開始，Nvidia 不僅打破了反對者的評論，還增加了超過 3 萬億美元的市值。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 圖形處理單元（GPU）無疑是運營 AI 加速數據中心的企業的首選。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821847%2Fred-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-financial-data-invest-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>But I've also seen stories like Nvidia's play out before. While the hype surrounding game-changing innovations can appear insurmountable, there are tangible, historical, and statistical reasons to believe Nvidia is, indeed, fallible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我也見過像 Nvidia 這樣的故事在之前上演。儘管圍繞顛覆性創新的炒作似乎難以抵擋，但有確鑿的歷史和統計原因表明，Nvidia 確實是有缺陷的。</p>
</div><p>What follows are 10 reasons to pass on Nvidia stock from an investor who's seen a lot of next-big-thing trends come and go over 27 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下來是來自一位在 27 年中見證了許多下一個大趨勢的投資者的 10 個理由，建議放棄 Nvidia 股票。</p>
</div><h2>1. Next-big-thing trends go hand in hand with early stage bubbles</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 下一個大趨勢往往伴隨着早期泡沫</h2>
</div><p>History offers one the most compelling reasons to keep your distance from Nvidia stock. Since (and including) the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, every major technological leap forward has resulted in an early stage bubble <em>eventually</em> (keyword!) forming and bursting. Although it's impossible to know when this bubble will burst ahead of time, next-big-thing trends and bubbles have gone hand-in-hand for more than three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史提供了一個最有説服力的理由，讓人遠離 Nvidia 股票。自 1990 年代中期互聯網出現以來，每一次重大的技術飛躍都導致了一個早期泡沫的形成並最終破裂。雖然無法提前知道這個泡沫何時會破裂，但下一個大趨勢和泡沫已經伴隨了超過三十年。</p>
</div><p>The simple fact that most businesses haven't yet optimized their AI solutions and aren't generating a profit on their AI investments strongly suggests that investors have, once again, overestimated the adoption rate and early innings utility of a game-changing innovation. That's bad news for Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單的事實是，大多數企業尚未優化其 AI 解決方案，也未能從其 AI 投資中獲利，這強烈表明投資者再次高估了顛覆性創新的採用率和早期效用。這對 Nvidia 來説是個壞消息。</p>
</div><h2>2. External competitors are ramping up production</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 外部競爭者正在加大生產</h2>
</div><p>Though Nvidia accounts for a near-monopoly like share of the GPUs currently deployed in AI accelerated data centers, it's unlikely to stay that way for long. Nvidia's has sold all the GPUs it can for 2025, which means hardware-hungry businesses will look elsewhere to gain an edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Nvidia 在當前部署於 AI 加速數據中心的 GPU 中佔據近乎壟斷的份額，但這種情況不太可能長期維持。Nvidia 已經售出了 2025 年能銷售的所有 GPU，這意味着對硬件需求旺盛的企業將尋求其他途徑以獲得競爭優勢。</p>
</div><p>External providers like <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD -0.20%) are rapidly ramping up production and introducing new AI-accelerating chips. AMD's Instinct series chips are notably cheaper and more readily accessible than Nvidia's hardware, which suggests it should have no issue chipping away (pun fully intended) at Nvidia's leading data center market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>（AMD -0.20%）這樣的外部供應商正在迅速擴大生產，並推出新的 AI 加速芯片。AMD 的 Instinct 系列芯片顯著便宜且更易獲得，這表明它應該能夠輕鬆削弱 Nvidia 在數據中心市場的領先地位。</p>
</div><h2>3. Internal competition will remove valuable data center real estate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 內部競爭將佔用寶貴的數據中心空間</h2>
</div><p>However, the argument can be made that internal competition is an even bigger threat to Nvidia's future -- and one of the top reasons to pass on its stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，可以説內部競爭對 Nvidia 未來的威脅更大，也是放棄其股票的主要原因之一。</p>
</div><p>Many of Nvidia's top clients by net sales are internally developing AI-GPUs and solutions to use in their data centers. While these chips won't be competing against Hopper and Blackwell externally, they will be taking up valuable data center real estate that Nvidia won't be able to win. Further, the internally developed hardware by Nvidia's leading customers is considerably cheaper than Hopper and Blackwell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的一些主要客户正在內部開發 AI-GPU 和解決方案，以在其數據中心中使用。雖然這些芯片不會在外部與 Hopper 和 Blackwell 競爭，但它們將佔用 Nvidia 無法贏得的寶貴數據中心空間。此外，Nvidia 主要客户內部開發的硬件比 Hopper 和 Blackwell 便宜得多。</p>
</div><h2>4. CEO Jensen Huang's innovation cycle could be disruptive to his own company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 首席執行官黃仁勳的創新週期可能會對公司造成干擾</h2>
</div><p>Normally, innovation is everything for tech companies. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is sparing no expense to ensure that his company maintains its compute advantages. Huang is attempting to bring a new advanced AI-GPU to market annually, with Blackwell Ultra debuting later this year, followed by Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra in 2026 and 2027, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，創新對科技公司至關重要。Nvidia 首席執行官黃仁勳不遺餘力地確保公司保持計算優勢。黃仁勳試圖每年推出一款新的先進 AI-GPU，Blackwell Ultra 將在今年晚些時候首次亮相，隨後是 2026 年和 2027 年的 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra。</p>
</div><p>The concern is that Huang's accelerated innovation cycle will quickly depreciate prior-generation chips and coerce businesses to trade down to less-costly options. Bringing a new chip to market annually might also irritate key customers, which may choose to delay their upgrade cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>令人擔憂的是，黃仁勳加速的創新週期可能會迅速貶值前一代芯片，並迫使企業轉向成本更低的選擇。每年推出一款新芯片也可能會讓關鍵客户感到不滿，從而選擇推遲升級週期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0202b62f37dd3b75f16dbb11f9131b6f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0202b62f37dd3b75f16dbb11f9131b6f.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 毛利率（季度）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>5. Its gross margin is already eroding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 其毛利率已經在下降</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's biggest competitive edge in AI has been its ability to exploit AI-GPU scarcity. As long as GPU demand overwhelms supply, Nvidia can notably increase its prices, boost its production, and benefit from both ends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 在 AI 領域最大的競爭優勢是其能夠利用 AI-GPU 的稀缺性。只要 GPU 需求超過供應，Nvidia 就可以顯著提高價格，增加生產，並從中受益。</p>
</div><p>But we're already observing evidence that AI-GPU scarcity is waning. Although world-leading chip fabrication company <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> still can't satiate demand despite rapidly expanding its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate capacity, Nvidia has delivered four consecutive quarters of declining generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin. While the company expects a modest rebound in GAAP gross margin for the current quarter, this four-quarter decline points to external and internal competition reducing the AI-GPU scarcity Nvidia holds so dear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我們已經觀察到 AI-GPU 稀缺性正在減弱的跡象。儘管全球領先的芯片製造公司 <strong>台灣半導體制造</strong> 仍無法滿足需求，儘管其正在迅速擴大其芯片在基板上的生產能力，Nvidia 已經連續四個季度報告了公認會計原則（GAAP）毛利率的下降。雖然公司預計當前季度 GAAP 毛利率會有所反彈，但這四個季度的下降表明外部和內部競爭正在減少 Nvidia 所珍視的 AI-GPU 稀缺性。</p>
</div><h2>6. Export restrictions are choking off a key market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>6. 出口限制正在扼殺一個關鍵市場</h2>
</div><p>Another reason to consider passing on Nvidia stock is because of ongoing export restrictions to China, which is one of the company's most important individual markets and generates billions of dollars in quarterly sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個考慮放棄 Nvidia 股票的原因是對中國的出口限制持續存在，而中國是該公司最重要的單一市場之一，每季度產生數十億美元的銷售額。</p>
</div><p>What makes export restrictions on high-powered AI chips so unique is that it's one of the few policies the Joe Biden administration and Donald Trump administration have seen eye-to-eye on. For three years, the federal government has stymied exports of Nvidia's top AI hardware to the world's No. 2 economy. With President Trump focused on national security and making the U.S. an artificial intelligence leader, it seems highly unlikely that these restrictions will be eased anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對高性能 AI 芯片的出口限制之所以獨特，是因為這是喬·拜登政府和唐納德·特朗普政府少數幾項意見一致的政策之一。在過去三年中，聯邦政府一直阻礙 Nvidia 頂級 AI 硬件向世界第二大經濟體的出口。考慮到特朗普總統專注於國家安全和使美國成為人工智能領導者，這些限制似乎在短期內不太可能放鬆。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDcvdGFyaWZmcy1lY29ub215LXRyYWRlLXdhci11cy1jaGluYS1vbmUtaHVuZHJlZC1kb2xsYXItY2FzaC10YXgtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821847%2Ftariffs-economy-trade-war-us-china-one-hundred-dollar-cash-tax-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>7. Tariffs are a secondary threat to margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>7. 關税對利潤的威脅是次要的</h2>
</div><p>In addition to Nvidia having key products restricted for export to China, President Trump's tariff and trade policy threatens to throw a monkey wrench into the company's expansion plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了英偉達的關鍵產品被限制出口到中國外，特朗普總統的關税和貿易政策還威脅到公司的擴張計劃。</p>
</div><p>Implementing a sweeping global tariff, along with higher &#34;reciprocal tariff rates&#34; for select countries that have historically had adverse trade imbalances with America, runs the risk of worsening trade relations with key partners, and may incite anti-American sentiment toward certain goods. To boot, tariffs may be placed on semiconductors and/or various aspects of the AI supply chain, which can ultimately weaken Nvidia's gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實施全面的全球關税，以及對與美國曆史上存在不利貿易失衡的特定國家提高 “對等關税率”，有可能加劇與關鍵合作伙伴的貿易關係，並可能引發對某些商品的反美情緒。此外，可能會對半導體和/或人工智能供應鏈的各個方面徵收關税，這最終可能削弱英偉達的毛利率。</p>
</div><h2>8. Insiders haven't made a purchase in over 54 months</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>8. 內部人士在 54 個月內沒有進行購買</h2>
</div><p>If you need another tangible excuse to pass on Nvidia stock, look no further than the company's insider trading activity, which is required to be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你需要另一個明確的理由來放棄英偉達的股票，不妨看看公司的內部交易活動，這些活動需要向證券交易委員會備案。</p>
</div><p>In December 2020, two sons of Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress each purchased 100 shares of Nvidia. This purchase, which occurred more than 54 months ago, is the last time an executive, board member, or direct family member, bought shares. In comparison, there have been 172 separate sales by insiders since Kress's Form 4 was filed in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 年 12 月，首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯的兩個兒子各購買了 100 股英偉達的股票。這次購買發生在 54 個月前，是最後一次有高管、董事會成員或直系親屬購買股票。相比之下，自克雷斯在 2020 年提交的 Form 4 以來，內部人士進行了 172 次獨立的股票出售。</p>
</div><p>While there are plenty of reasons to sell a stock (not all of which are worrisome), there's only one reason to buy: you believe shares will head higher. If Nvidia's insiders aren't buying, why should you?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然有很多理由可以出售股票（並非所有理由都令人擔憂），但購買股票的理由只有一個：你相信股票會升值。如果英偉達的內部人士不在買入，你為什麼要買呢？</p>
</div><h2>9. Billionaires have been persistent sellers of Nvidia stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>9. 億萬富翁持續出售英偉達股票</h2>
</div><p>With one exception -- billionaire Chase Coleman of Tiger Global Management -- Wall Street's brightest billionaire money managers have been persistent sellers of Nvidia stock for more than a year. This includes Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Family Office and Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital, both of which completely exited their once sizable positions in this AI kingpin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了億萬富翁查斯·科爾曼（Chase Coleman）外，華爾街最聰明的億萬富翁投資經理在過去一年中一直在持續出售英偉達股票。這包括杜肯家族辦公室的斯坦利·德魯肯米勒和孤松資本的斯蒂芬·曼德爾，他們都完全退出了曾經相當可觀的在這家人工智能巨頭的持股。</p>
</div><p>Though billionaire investors are fully capable of being wrong, it's noteworthy that an overwhelming majority of big-money hedge funds have cashed in their chips or meaningfully reduced their positions, as is the case with David Tepper of Appaloosa, Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management, and Israel Englander of Millennium Management. Some of the above factors may have played a role in their decisions to sell or reduce their exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管億萬富翁投資者完全有可能犯錯，但值得注意的是，絕大多數大型對沖基金已經兑現了他們的籌碼或大幅減少了他們的持倉，正如阿帕盧薩的戴維·泰珀、科圖管理的菲利普·拉豐和千禧管理的以色列·英格蘭德所示。上述一些因素可能在他們決定出售或減少持倉時發揮了作用。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ed36e9eefb920771bcf1979a5951eea.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ed36e9eefb920771bcf1979a5951eea.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS Ratio = price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。PS 比率=市銷率。</p>
</div><h2>10. A key aspect of Nvidia's valuation still makes no sense</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>10. 英偉達估值的一個關鍵方面仍然沒有意義</h2>
</div><p>Last but certainly not least, Nvidia's valuation isn't all it's cracked up to be. While its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25 isn't egregiously high, its trailing-12-month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 24 remains in nosebleed territory, relative to other megacap stocks that have been on the leading edge of next-big-thing trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後但同樣重要的是，英偉達的估值並沒有它所聲稱的那麼好。儘管其前瞻性市盈率為 25 並不算過高，但其過去 12 個月（TTM）的市銷率為 24，相對於其他在下一波趨勢中處於領先地位的巨頭股票來説，仍然處於高位。</p>
</div><p>For instance, key players in the evolution of the internet, such as <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Cisco Systems</strong>, all topped out with TTM P/S ratios ranging from 30 to 43 before the dot-com bubble burst. Perhaps not coincidentally, Nvidia's TTM P/S ratio peaked at 42 last summer. Nevertheless, a P/S ratio of 24 is still far too high, based on historical data, to be sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，互聯網發展的關鍵參與者，如 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>微軟</strong> 和 <strong>思科系統</strong>，在互聯網泡沫破裂之前，其 TTM 市銷率均達到了 30 到 43 的高點。或許並非巧合，英偉達的 TTM 市銷率在去年夏天達到了 42。然而，基於歷史數據，24 的市銷率仍然過高，難以持續。</p>
</div>

10 Reasons to Pass on Nvidia Stock From an Investor of 27 Years Who's Seen This Story Play Out Before

- Nvidia 在 2023 年以來市值增加超過 3 萬億美元。  
- 文章列出 10 個理由，建議投資者放棄 Nvidia 股票。  
- 主要原因包括市場競爭加劇和內部創新週期影響。  

來自一位擁有 27 年經驗的投資者的 10 個放棄英偉達股票的理由，他曾見過類似的故事如何發展