<p>在 2024 年底接近 260 美元的高峰後，<strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.53%）的股價已進入熊市。儘管廣泛的股市指數接近歷史新高，但蘋果的股票下跌了 25%，成為 2025 年表現最差的大型科技股之一。</p>
<p>投資者對關税、收入增長放緩以及可能影響智能手機制造商未來盈利能力的反壟斷訴訟感到擔憂。</p>
<p>現在是購買蘋果股票的合適時機嗎？讓我們來檢驗一下數據，看看為什麼今天購買蘋果是一項風險較大的投資。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIxMzQvdGhpbmtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="491" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIxMzQvdGhpbmtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>穩定的 iPhone 銷售，失敗的硬件創新</h2>
<p>iPhone 仍然是一個暢銷的消費產品。在過去六個月中，該細分市場為蘋果創造了超過 1000 億美元的收入，使其成為全球收入最高的智能手機。</p>
<p>投資者面臨的問題是，銷售在過去幾年中停滯不前。蘋果能夠持續提高新 iPhone 的價格，但消費者的升級週期越來越長，這意味着他們在購買最新設備之前需要等待更長的時間。這對收入增長構成了重大阻力。</p>
<p>為了擴展其設備生態系統，蘋果在可穿戴設備方面取得了一定進展，如 Apple Watch 和 AirPods。這些都是成功的產品，但對於蘋果 4000 億美元的年綜合收入來説，影響有限。為此，蘋果推出了自 iPhone 以來最大的硬件產品——Vision Pro 虛擬現實頭顯。這款售價 3500 美元的設備本應成為蘋果下一個重要的計算範式，為用户提供更先進的工作和娛樂計算工具。</p>
<p>到目前為止，Vision Pro 似乎是一個失敗。估計累計銷量不足 100 萬，許多購買者在試用期後報告停止使用該設備。</p>
<p>蘋果仍然是一家依賴 iPhone 銷售的硬件供應商，而這一產品類別已經成熟。預計在未來幾年，除非蘋果能夠推出突破性的計算設備，否則在硬件方面的收入增長將面臨更多挑戰。</p>
<h2>反壟斷訴訟將對利潤產生什麼影響？</h2>
<p>在過去幾年中，蘋果業務的金蛋是其軟件和服務部門。包括 App Store 收入、許可協議以及來自其第一方應用（如 Apple Music）的收入，服務收入從 2012 年的 130 億美元增長到過去 12 個月的 1020 億美元。</p>
<p>服務收入的利潤率也很高。過去 12 個月，服務的毛利潤為 760 億美元，接近公司從硬件產品中獲得的 1100 億美元毛利潤。</p>
<p>蘋果面臨一個問題：其服務現金牛正受到攻擊。</p>
<p>首先，由於法院裁決，蘋果設備上的 App Store 壟斷地位被打破。蘋果對在 iPhone 上進行的某些交易嚮應用開發者收取 30% 的費用，之前不允許第三方支付方式，除非用户使用移動瀏覽器。法院裁決規定，開發者現在可以直接向消費者推廣使用更便宜的支付方式，這可能意味着繞過蘋果的支付生態系統。估計 App Store 的收入預計每年將為蘋果帶來至少 100 億美元的高利潤收入。</p>
<p>這並不是唯一一個將蘋果利潤置於風險之中的反壟斷訴訟。還有一起反壟斷案件部分涉及 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Google Search 為成為蘋果設備默認搜索引擎所支付的鉅額費用，估計這一支付每年超過 200 億美元的純利潤。這可能會大大影響蘋果的服務毛利潤以及其綜合淨收益。</p>
<p>將兩者相加，可以清楚地看出蘋果的服務部門正面臨威脅，而這是過去幾年中業務中唯一的亮點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b2e654dcdf510f171750a20be7a8481.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b2e654dcdf510f171750a20be7a8481.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 淨收入（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>一隻疲軟的股票，但並不便宜</h2>
<p>蘋果股票在 2025 年初變得更便宜，但這並不意味着它便宜。它目前的市盈率（P/E）約為 30.5，高於一些增長更快的科技同行。</p>
<p>市盈率超過 30 的股票通常是為那些盈利快速增長、未來增長前景強勁的公司保留的。自 2022 年以來，蘋果的淨收入沒有增長，使其成為市場上市盈率高但增長緩慢的股票之一。這是一個危險的組合。</p>
<p>我們不能忘記談論關税。蘋果正處於美國與中國之間貿易戰的核心，而大多數蘋果設備都是在中國組裝的。過去，蘋果能夠通過談判擺脱對其設備徵收的高關税，但這次可能不會那麼順利。</p>
<p>對美國進口的高關税將對蘋果造成嚴重打擊，因為目前它幾乎被迫在中國組裝大部分設備。此外，轉向新市場或美國也會帶來額外費用。</p>
<p>今天關於蘋果股票沒有太多值得喜歡的地方。其關鍵產品增長放緩，盈利的服務部門受到衝擊，且其估值昂貴。再加上關税風險，今天沒有理由購買蘋果股票的下跌。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果的股票在 2025 年下跌了 25%，儘管整體市場上漲，但已進入熊市。對關税、iPhone 銷售放緩和反壟斷訴訟的擔憂威脅着未來的收益。儘管服務收入顯著增長，但最近的法院裁決使這一領域面臨風險。蘋果的市盈率為 30.5，儘管股票下跌，但這表明其可能並不是一個便宜的選擇。考慮到公司的增長停滯和潛在的法律挑戰，投資者正在質疑現在是否是買入的合適時機</p>

<p>After peaking at around $260 near the end of 2024, <strong>Apple</strong>'s (AAPL 0.53%) stock price has entered a bear market. Even with the wide stock market indices approaching new all-time highs, shares of Apple are down 25%, making it one of the worst-performing large-cap technology stocks in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年底接近 260 美元的高峰後，<strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.53%）的股價已進入熊市。儘管廣泛的股市指數接近歷史新高，但蘋果的股票下跌了 25%，成為 2025 年表現最差的大型科技股之一。</p>
</div><p>Investors are worried about tariffs, slowing revenue growth, and antitrust lawsuits that may impact the smartphone maker's future earnings power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對關税、收入增長放緩以及可能影響智能手機制造商未來盈利能力的反壟斷訴訟感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Is now the right time to buy the dip on Apple stock? Let's put the numbers to the test and show why Apple is a risky big tech stock to purchase today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在是購買蘋果股票的合適時機嗎？讓我們來檢驗一下數據，看看為什麼今天購買蘋果是一項風險較大的投資。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIxMzQvdGhpbmtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822134%2Fthinking.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Steady iPhone sales, failed hardware innovations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>穩定的 iPhone 銷售，失敗的硬件創新</h2>
</div><p>The iPhone is still a blockbuster consumer product. Over the last six months alone, the segment has generated more than $100 billion in revenue for Apple, making it the most popular smartphone in the world by revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 仍然是一個暢銷的消費產品。在過去六個月中，該細分市場為蘋果創造了超過 1000 億美元的收入，使其成為全球收入最高的智能手機。</p>
</div><p>The problem for investors is the fact sales have stagnated for the last few years. Apple has been able to consistently raise the price of new iPhones, but upgrade cycles are proving longer and longer for consumers, meaning they are going more years before buying the latest device. This is a major headwind to revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者面臨的問題是，銷售在過去幾年中停滯不前。蘋果能夠持續提高新 iPhone 的價格，但消費者的升級週期越來越長，這意味着他們在購買最新設備之前需要等待更長的時間。這對收入增長構成了重大阻力。</p>
</div><p>In order to expand its ecosystems of devices, Apple has made inroads into wearables like the Apple Watch and AirPods. These are successful products, but will not move the needle for Apple's $400 billion in consolidated annual revenue. To do that, Apple made its largest hardware launch since the iPhone with the Vision Pro virtual reality headset. A device that costs $3,500, the headset was supposed to be Apple's next big computing paradigm, giving its users more advanced computing tools for work and pleasure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了擴展其設備生態系統，蘋果在可穿戴設備方面取得了一定進展，如 Apple Watch 和 AirPods。這些都是成功的產品，但對於蘋果 4000 億美元的年綜合收入來説，影響有限。為此，蘋果推出了自 iPhone 以來最大的硬件產品——Vision Pro 虛擬現實頭顯。這款售價 3500 美元的設備本應成為蘋果下一個重要的計算範式，為用户提供更先進的工作和娛樂計算工具。</p>
</div><p>So far, it looks like the Vision Pro has been a flop. Estimates are that unit sales are cumulatively less than 1 million, with many purchasers reportedly stopping using the device after a trial period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，Vision Pro 似乎是一個失敗。估計累計銷量不足 100 萬，許多購買者在試用期後報告停止使用該設備。</p>
</div><p>Apple remains a hardware provider tethered to iPhone sales, a product category that has matured. Expect more struggles to grow revenue on the hardware side of things in the years ahead unless Apple can come up with a breakthrough new computing device.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果仍然是一家依賴 iPhone 銷售的硬件供應商，而這一產品類別已經成熟。預計在未來幾年，除非蘋果能夠推出突破性的計算設備，否則在硬件方面的收入增長將面臨更多挑戰。</p>
</div><h2>What impact will antitrust lawsuits have on profits?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>反壟斷訴訟將對利潤產生什麼影響？</h2>
</div><p>The golden goose of Apple's business in the last few years has been its software and services segment. Including App Store revenue, licensing deals, and revenue from its first-party apps such as Apple Music, services revenue has grown from $13 billion in 2012 to $102 billion over the last 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年中，蘋果業務的金蛋是其軟件和服務部門。包括 App Store 收入、許可協議以及來自其第一方應用（如 Apple Music）的收入，服務收入從 2012 年的 130 億美元增長到過去 12 個月的 1020 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Services revenue comes with high profit margins, too. Services gross profit was $76 billion over the past 12 months, which is closing in on the $110 billion in gross profit the company gets from hardware products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服務收入的利潤率也很高。過去 12 個月，服務的毛利潤為 760 億美元，接近公司從硬件產品中獲得的 1100 億美元毛利潤。</p>
</div><p>Apple has one problem: Its services cash cow is under attack.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果面臨一個問題：其服務現金牛正受到攻擊。</p>
</div><p>First, the App Store monopoly on Apple devices has been broken due to a court ruling. Apple charges a 30% take rate on some transactions performed on an iPhone for application developers, and previously did not allow third-party payment methods unless users went to a mobile browser. The court ruling states that developers are allowed to now market directly to consumers to use cheaper payment methods, which could mean circumvention of Apple's payment ecosystem. Estimates vary, but App Store revenue is projected to be at least $10 billion a year in high-margin revenue for Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，由於法院裁決，蘋果設備上的 App Store 壟斷地位被打破。蘋果對在 iPhone 上進行的某些交易嚮應用開發者收取 30% 的費用，之前不允許第三方支付方式，除非用户使用移動瀏覽器。法院裁決規定，開發者現在可以直接向消費者推廣使用更便宜的支付方式，這可能意味着繞過蘋果的支付生態系統。估計 App Store 的收入預計每年將為蘋果帶來至少 100 億美元的高利潤收入。</p>
</div><p>This is not the only antitrust lawsuit putting Apple's profits at risk. There is an antitrust court case that partially covers the large payment <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google Search makes to be the default engine on Apple devices, with estimates that the payment is more than $20 billion a year in pure profit. This could greatly impact Apple's services gross profit, as well as its consolidated bottom-line earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是唯一一個將蘋果利潤置於風險之中的反壟斷訴訟。還有一起反壟斷案件部分涉及 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Google Search 為成為蘋果設備默認搜索引擎所支付的鉅額費用，估計這一支付每年超過 200 億美元的純利潤。這可能會大大影響蘋果的服務毛利潤以及其綜合淨收益。</p>
</div><p>Add both together, and it is clear that Apple's services division is under threat, and it's the only bright spot in the business over the last few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將兩者相加，可以清楚地看出蘋果的服務部門正面臨威脅，而這是過去幾年中業務中唯一的亮點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b2e654dcdf510f171750a20be7a8481.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b2e654dcdf510f171750a20be7a8481.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Net Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 淨收入（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>A downtrodden stock, but not cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一隻疲軟的股票，但並不便宜</h2>
</div><p>Apple stock has gotten cheaper to start 2025, but that does not mean it is cheap. It currently has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 30.5, which is higher than some of its technology peers that are growing much faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果股票在 2025 年初變得更便宜，但這並不意味着它便宜。它目前的市盈率（P/E）約為 30.5，高於一些增長更快的科技同行。</p>
</div><p>Stocks with P/E ratios above 30 are typically reserved for companies with earnings growing at a quick pace, with strong future growth prospects. Apple's net income has not grown since 2022, making it one of the slowest-growing stocks with a high P/E ratio on the market today. That is a dangerous combination.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率超過 30 的股票通常是為那些盈利快速增長、未來增長前景強勁的公司保留的。自 2022 年以來，蘋果的淨收入沒有增長，使其成為市場上市盈率高但增長緩慢的股票之一。這是一個危險的組合。</p>
</div><p>We cannot forget to talk about tariffs. Apple is at the heart of the trade war between the United States and China, where most Apple devices are assembled. In the past, Apple has been able to negotiate its way out of high tariffs put on its devices, but this time may not go so well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們不能忘記談論關税。蘋果正處於美國與中國之間貿易戰的核心，而大多數蘋果設備都是在中國組裝的。過去，蘋果能夠通過談判擺脱對其設備徵收的高關税，但這次可能不會那麼順利。</p>
</div><p>High tariffs on imports to the United States would be brutal for Apple, as it is virtually stuck assembling most of its devices in China for the time being. Plus, moving to new markets or the United States comes with added expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對美國進口的高關税將對蘋果造成嚴重打擊，因為目前它幾乎被迫在中國組裝大部分設備。此外，轉向新市場或美國也會帶來額外費用。</p>
</div><p>There is not much to like about Apple stock today. Its key product is seeing slowing growth, the profitable services segment is under fire, and it trades at an expensive valuation. Add tariff risk, and there is no good reason to buy the dip on Apple stock today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天關於蘋果股票沒有太多值得喜歡的地方。其關鍵產品增長放緩，盈利的服務部門受到衝擊，且其估值昂貴。再加上關税風險，今天沒有理由購買蘋果股票的下跌。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy the Dip on Apple Stock This Year?

- 蘋果股價自 2024 年底約 260 美元后進入熊市，2025 年下跌 25%。  
- 投資者擔憂關税、收入增長放緩及反壟斷訴訟影響未來盈利。  
- 蘋果的服務部門面臨威脅，且市盈率高於同行，風險加大。  

今年是否應該在蘋果股票下跌時買入？