<p>Wayne Cole 對歐洲和全球市場的前景展望</p><p>在世界已經充滿不確定性的情況下，特朗普總統卻讓美國捲入了另一場中東衝突。總統通過社交媒體宣佈對另一個國家發動攻擊並不常見，尤其是 “炸彈” 這個詞被用全大寫字母。</p><p>美國政府表示並未處於戰爭狀態，如果伊朗達成和平，也不會升級。然而，它也曾表示並不旨在推翻伊朗政權，直到特朗普在社交媒體上發佈了關於這一前景的內容。</p><p>目前，局勢在德黑蘭手中，伊朗尚未對任何美國目標採取行動，儘管有報道稱其議會已批准嘗試關閉霍爾木茲海峽。伊朗媒體表示，這一舉動需要最高國家安全委員會的批准。</p><p>Polymarket 甚至對伊朗是否能夠關閉海峽進行了博彩，目前的概率為 47%。因此，突然間每個市場評論員都成了如何關閉航運通道、破壞掩體炸彈的有效性以及鈾濃縮複雜性的專家。</p><p>市場的立場是希望這次美國干預不會升級，也許如果伊朗的核野心真的被推遲多年，甚至可能使該地區更安全。</p><p>油價上漲近 2%，但遠低於早期五個月的高點，分析師指出如果他們願意，OPEC 有大量額外供應可以增加。</p><p>華爾街股指期貨下跌 0.3%，開盤時下跌 1%，而歐洲期貨下跌約 0.4%。美元對歐元和日元略微走強，反映出歐盟和日本對進口石油和液化天然氣的依賴，以及美國作為淨出口國的地位。</p><p>國債收益率小幅上升，因此安全避險的需求不多，而美聯儲基金期貨小幅下跌，可能是因為能源成本的持續上漲可能會加大通脹壓力，正值關税影響價格之際。</p><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾將在週二和週三面對國會的質詢，討論所有這些問題，以及特朗普威脅解僱他的相關問題。鮑威爾如何回應美聯儲理事沃勒突然支持 7 月降息的立場也將頗具看點，因為在此之前，FOMC 的成員似乎都在唱同一首謹慎的讚美詩。</p><p>市場仍然暗示 7 月降息的概率僅為 16%，更傾向於 9 月降息的 70% 押注。 (0#USDIRPR)</p><p>可能影響週一市場的關鍵發展：</p><ul><li>歐盟和英國 6 月份 PMI 數據</li><li>歐洲央行行長克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的開場發言</li><li>美聯儲成員沃勒、鮑曼、古爾斯比和庫格勒的出席</li></ul><p>石油供應衝擊</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/189cba49748bc1b9f61ee2a29edebe9a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="2528" height="860" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/189cba49748bc1b9f61ee2a29edebe9a"/></figure><p>OPEC 的備用石油生產能力</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/82b8113c3fba90127a135991b0efded2?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="938" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/82b8113c3fba90127a135991b0efded2"/></figure><p>中東海灣每月原油出口</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/86b1e18d22984da5a208d997dca016b1?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="974" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/86b1e18d22984da5a208d997dca016b1"/></figure><p>（作者：Wayne Cole；編輯：Edmund Klamann）</p>

<p>美國正面臨與伊朗的潛在衝突，特朗普總統通過社交媒體暗示可能採取軍事行動。伊朗議會可能試圖關閉霍爾木茲海峽，引發市場擔憂。油價上漲近 2%，而華爾街期貨下跌。美元對歐元和日元走強，反映出對能源進口的依賴。美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾將在通脹擔憂和潛在降息的背景下向國會發表講話。影響市場的關鍵因素包括歐盟和英國的 PMI、歐洲央行的言論以及 OPEC 的石油供應能力</p>

<p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wayne Cole 對歐洲和全球市場的前景展望</p>
</div><p>As if there wasn’t enough uncertainty in the world already, President Trump has to get the United States embroiled in another Middle East conflict. It’s not often a president announces an attack on another country via social media, or that the word “bombs” is used in all caps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在世界已經充滿不確定性的情況下，特朗普總統卻讓美國捲入了另一場中東衝突。總統通過社交媒體宣佈對另一個國家發動攻擊並不常見，尤其是 “炸彈” 這個詞被用全大寫字母。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. administration says it’s not at war and it will not escalate if Iran makes peace. Then again, it also said it was not aiming at regime change in Iran, until Trump posted on social media about that very prospect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國政府表示並未處於戰爭狀態，如果伊朗達成和平，也不會升級。然而，它也曾表示並不旨在推翻伊朗政權，直到特朗普在社交媒體上發佈了關於這一前景的內容。</p>
</div><p>For now the ball is in Tehran’s court and it has not yet struck at any U.S. site, although its parliament was reported to have approved an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media said such a move would need approval by the Supreme National Security Council.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，局勢在德黑蘭手中，伊朗尚未對任何美國目標採取行動，儘管有報道稱其議會已批准嘗試關閉霍爾木茲海峽。伊朗媒體表示，這一舉動需要最高國家安全委員會的批准。</p>
</div><p>Polymarket even makes a book on the chance of Iran managing to close the Strait, and that’s currently at 47%. So, suddenly every market commentator is an expert on how to close shipping lanes, the efficacy of bunker busting bombs and the intricacies of enriching uranium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 甚至對伊朗是否能夠關閉海峽進行了博彩，目前的概率為 47%。因此，突然間每個市場評論員都成了如何關閉航運通道、破壞掩體炸彈的有效性以及鈾濃縮複雜性的專家。</p>
</div><p>The market position is to hope this U.S. intervention will not escalate, and perhaps might even make the region safer should Iran’s nuclear ambitions really be set back by years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場的立場是希望這次美國干預不會升級，也許如果伊朗的核野心真的被推遲多年，甚至可能使該地區更安全。</p>
</div><p>Oil is up almost 2%, but well off early five-month peaks as analysts note OPEC has plenty of extra supply to add if they want.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價上漲近 2%，但遠低於早期五個月的高點，分析師指出如果他們願意，OPEC 有大量額外供應可以增加。</p>
</div><p>Wall St share futures are down 0.3%, having started with losses of 1%, while European futures are off 0.4% or so. The dollar is marginally firmer on the euro and yen, reflecting the reliance of the EU and Japan on imported oil and LNG, and the U.S. status as a net exporter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街股指期貨下跌 0.3%，開盤時下跌 1%，而歐洲期貨下跌約 0.4%。美元對歐元和日元略微走強，反映出歐盟和日本對進口石油和液化天然氣的依賴，以及美國作為淨出口國的地位。</p>
</div><p>Treasury yields are up slightly, so not many safe-haven bids there, while Fed fund futures are down a tick, likely on the risk a sustained rise in energy costs could add to inflationary pressure just as tariffs are being felt in prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國債收益率小幅上升，因此安全避險的需求不多，而美聯儲基金期貨小幅下跌，可能是因為能源成本的持續上漲可能會加大通脹壓力，正值關税影響價格之際。</p>
</div><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set for a grilling on all this when he faces Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with queries on Trump’s threats to fire him. It will also be interesting to see how Powell responds to Fed Governor Waller’s sudden embrace of a July rate cut, when it seemed the FOMC choir had all been singing from the same cautious hymn sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾將在週二和週三面對國會的質詢，討論所有這些問題，以及特朗普威脅解僱他的相關問題。鮑威爾如何回應美聯儲理事沃勒突然支持 7 月降息的立場也將頗具看點，因為在此之前，FOMC 的成員似乎都在唱同一首謹慎的讚美詩。</p>
</div><p>Markets imply still only a 16% chance of a July easing, preferring a 70% wager on a September move. (0#USDIRPR)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場仍然暗示 7 月降息的概率僅為 16%，更傾向於 9 月降息的 70% 押注。 (0#USDIRPR)</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影響週一市場的關鍵發展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>EU and UK PMIs for June</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>歐盟和英國 6 月份 PMI 數據</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Introductory remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>歐洲央行行長克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的開場發言</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Appearances by Fed members Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee and Kugler</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美聯儲成員沃勒、鮑曼、古爾斯比和庫格勒的出席</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Oil supply shocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石油供應衝擊</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OIL-SUPPLY/znvnndgdevl/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OIL-SUPPLY/znvnndgdevl/chart.png"/></p>
<p>OPEC spare oil production capacity</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OPEC 的備用石油生產能力</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OPEC-OIL/lbpgzrxrwvq/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OPEC-OIL/lbpgzrxrwvq/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Mideast Gulf monthly crude oil exports</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中東海灣每月原油出口</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GULF-OIL/xmvjegwgdpr/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GULF-OIL/xmvjegwgdpr/chart.png"/></p>
<p>(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Wayne Cole；編輯：Edmund Klamann）</p>
</div>

Now the ball is in Iran's court

- 美國總統特朗普宣佈對中東的攻擊，引發市場不確定性。  
- 伊朗尚未對美國目標採取行動，但其議會已批准關閉霍爾木茲海峽的嘗試。  
- 油價上漲近 2%，但分析師指出 OPEC 有足夠的額外供應。  

現在輪到伊朗採取行動