<p>菲利普·拉豐特是一位億萬富翁投資者，也是 Coatue Management 的聯合創始人，該對沖基金專注於技術、醫療保健和加密貨幣等新興主題的投資。</p>
<p>Coatue 最近舉辦了年度東西方會議，並在會議期間發佈了一系列推動資本市場的研究成果——特別是人工智能（AI）革命。</p>
<p>然而，Coatue 也將一部分研究專注於 <strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC 3.70%）在過去幾年的表現，以及這款加密貨幣未來可能的發展方向。</p>
<p>事實上，Coatue 預測到 2030 年，比特幣的市值可能達到 5.2 萬億美元。這不僅意味着比特幣當前市值的 153% 的上漲空間，還暗示它可能在未來五年內成為全球第三大最有價值的資產，僅次於 <strong>微軟</strong> 和 <strong>英偉達</strong>，超過 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 等公司。</p>
<p>讓我們探討一下在未來五年內，什麼因素可能推動比特幣達到新高。更重要的是，我將詳細介紹幾種投資者可以參與比特幣運動的不同方式。</p>
<h2>比特幣可能正在成為主流金融資產</h2>
<p>在其歷史的大部分時間裏，比特幣被標記為一種高度投機的資產——這也是有充分理由的。由於其過於明顯的波動性、不斷上升的採用率以及持續的監管不確定性，比特幣並不像美元那樣主流。</p>
<p>儘管如此，過去幾年中，由於多種因素的結合，加密貨幣逐漸變得更加主流。</p>
<p>零售投資者對區塊鏈技術表現出早期的熱情，以及像比特幣或 <strong>以太坊</strong> 這樣的主要加密貨幣如何在現實世界中促進交易。</p>
<p>隨着時間的推移，大型金融機構也逐漸接受去中心化金融（DeFi）協議在支付基礎設施中的作用，以及比特幣等資產可以作為對抗通貨膨脹的工具——類似於黃金和某些其他替代資產的作用。</p>
<p>在金融交易之外的實用性方面，像 <strong>Strategy</strong>（前稱 MicroStrategy）和 <strong>GameStop</strong> 這樣的公司實際上已經收購了比特幣，以增強其資產負債表。雖然從投資者的角度來看，這種舉動存在爭議，但將比特幣與現金和短期投資一起持有，與幾年前 <strong>Palantir</strong> 在其資產負債表上持有黃金的策略並沒有太大不同。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI0NTEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE0OTIyNTAwNi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI0NTEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE0OTIyNTAwNi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>華爾街的一些人似乎同意拉豐特的觀點</h2>
<p>Coatue 並不是華爾街上唯一預測比特幣在未來幾年將大幅上漲的公司。</p>
<p>不到一年前，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的湯姆·李預測比特幣的短期價格目標在 150,000 美元到 250,000 美元之間。在最近一次接受 CNBC 的_ Squawk Box_採訪時，李不僅重申了他的樂觀觀點，還聲稱考慮到比特幣的有限供應及其相對於其他對沖工具（即黃金）的感知價值和不斷演變的使用案例，其長期價格目標可能在 300 萬美元左右——這意味着 63 萬億美元的市值。</p>
<p>Ark Invest 的凱西·伍德也預測比特幣將有巨大的上漲空間。她對每個比特幣 150 萬美元的長期預測意味着 31 萬億美元的市值——遠高於 Coatue 的預測。</p>
<h2>現在比特幣是個好買入嗎？</h2>
<p>從上述分析中最重要的結論不僅僅是知名投資者呼籲比特幣價格大幅上漲。更重要的是理解比特幣的固定供應賦予了該資產稀缺的感知價值，因此在經濟不確定時期，接觸該資產可能是有利的。</p>
<p>當然，比特幣仍然是一種高度投機和波動的資產。如果直接接觸比特幣超出了你的風險承受能力，還有幾種被動投資加密貨幣的方式。</p>
<p>首先，投資者可以購買現貨比特幣 ETF，如 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust</strong> 或凱西·伍德的 <strong>ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Trust</strong>。這些基金跟蹤比特幣的價格波動，但不要求投資者直接購買加密貨幣。</p>
<p>更進一步，如果投資者希望持有與比特幣有更隔離接觸的資產，他們可以購買加密貨幣交易所的股票，如 <strong>Coinbase</strong> 或專注於加密的交易應用程序 <strong>Robinhood</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f41c620d6fc3ec9d832f7da6b0afb13b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f41c620d6fc3ec9d832f7da6b0afb13b.png"/></p>
<p>比特幣價格數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>如上圖所示，比特幣及其一些代理在過去一年中表現優於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>、<strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 和黃金。然而，值得注意的是，整體市場和黃金的表現也相當不錯。</p>
<p>考慮到這些動態，我確實認為對比特幣的某種接觸——無論是直接還是間接——可能是多元化投資組合的有用補充。話雖如此，我認為比特幣或更廣泛的加密貨幣機會尚未優於傳統投資工具。</p>

亞馬遜

特斯拉

<p>億萬富翁投資者菲利普·拉豐（Philippe Laffont），Coatue Management 的聯合創始人，預測比特幣到 2030 年可能達到 5.2 萬億美元的市值，可能會超過亞馬遜、Meta 和特斯拉。這一預測與比特幣作為金融資產的日益主流接受度相一致，受到零售和機構投資者的推動。其他華爾街分析師，如湯姆·李（Tom Lee）和凱西·伍德（Cathie Wood），也預測比特幣將大幅上漲，目標價位在 15 萬美元到 300 萬美元之間。投資者可以通過比特幣 ETF 或加密貨幣交易所的股票獲得投資機會</p>

<p>Philippe Laffont is a billionaire investor and a co-founder of Coatue Management, a hedge fund that focuses its investments on emerging themes across technology, healthcare, and cryptocurrency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲利普·拉豐特是一位億萬富翁投資者，也是 Coatue Management 的聯合創始人，該對沖基金專注於技術、醫療保健和加密貨幣等新興主題的投資。</p>
</div><p>Coatue recently hosted its annual East Meets West conference, during which it published a number of findings that are fueling capital markets -- specifically, the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coatue 最近舉辦了年度東西方會議，並在會議期間發佈了一系列推動資本市場的研究成果——特別是人工智能（AI）革命。</p>
</div><p>However, Coatue also dedicated a portion of its research to <strong>Bitcoin</strong>'s (BTC 3.70%) performance over the last several years, and where the cryptocurrency could be headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Coatue 也將一部分研究專注於 <strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC 3.70%）在過去幾年的表現，以及這款加密貨幣未來可能的發展方向。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Coatue forecasts that Bitcoin could reach a market capitalization of $5.2 trillion by 2030. Not only does this imply 153% upside from Bitcoin's current market value, but it suggests that it could emerge as the third most valuable asset in the world during the next five years -- trailing only <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Nvidia</strong> and surpassing the likes of <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, and <strong>Tesla</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，Coatue 預測到 2030 年，比特幣的市值可能達到 5.2 萬億美元。這不僅意味着比特幣當前市值的 153% 的上漲空間，還暗示它可能在未來五年內成為全球第三大最有價值的資產，僅次於 <strong>微軟</strong> 和 <strong>英偉達</strong>，超過 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 等公司。</p>
</div><p>Let's explore what could fuel Bitcoin to new highs during the next five years. More importantly, I'll detail several different ways in which investors can invest in the Bitcoin movement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們探討一下在未來五年內，什麼因素可能推動比特幣達到新高。更重要的是，我將詳細介紹幾種投資者可以參與比特幣運動的不同方式。</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin could be on its way to becoming a mainstream financial asset</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特幣可能正在成為主流金融資產</h2>
</div><p>For much of its history, Bitcoin has been labeled as a highly speculative asset -- and rightfully so. Between its overly pronounced volatility, rising adoption rates, and ongoing regulatory uncertainties, Bitcoin is not exactly as mainstream as the U.S. dollar, for example.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其歷史的大部分時間裏，比特幣被標記為一種高度投機的資產——這也是有充分理由的。由於其過於明顯的波動性、不斷上升的採用率以及持續的監管不確定性，比特幣並不像美元那樣主流。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, cryptocurrency has gradually become more mainstream during the past several years thanks to a combination of factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，過去幾年中，由於多種因素的結合，加密貨幣逐漸變得更加主流。</p>
</div><p>Retail investors showed early enthusiasm for blockchain technology and how prominent cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or <strong>Ethereum</strong> could be used to facilitate transactions in the real world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>零售投資者對區塊鏈技術表現出早期的熱情，以及像比特幣或 <strong>以太坊</strong> 這樣的主要加密貨幣如何在現實世界中促進交易。</p>
</div><p>Over time, large financial institutions have also become more receptive to the idea of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols playing a role in the world of payments infrastructure, as well as the idea that assets such as Bitcoin could act as hedges to inflation -- similar to the way gold and certain other alternative assets do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着時間的推移，大型金融機構也逐漸接受去中心化金融（DeFi）協議在支付基礎設施中的作用，以及比特幣等資產可以作為對抗通貨膨脹的工具——類似於黃金和某些其他替代資產的作用。</p>
</div><p>In terms of utility beyond that of financial transactions, companies such as <strong>Strategy</strong> (formerly known as MicroStrategy) and <strong>GameStop</strong> have actually acquired Bitcoin to augment their balance sheets. While such moves have been polarizing from the perspective of investors, holding Bitcoin alongside cash and short-term investments is not entirely unlike <strong>Palantir</strong>'s strategy of holding gold on its balance sheet a few years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在金融交易之外的實用性方面，像 <strong>Strategy</strong>（前稱 MicroStrategy）和 <strong>GameStop</strong> 這樣的公司實際上已經收購了比特幣，以增強其資產負債表。雖然從投資者的角度來看，這種舉動存在爭議，但將比特幣與現金和短期投資一起持有，與幾年前 <strong>Palantir</strong> 在其資產負債表上持有黃金的策略並沒有太大不同。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI0NTEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE0OTIyNTAwNi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822451%2Fgettyimages-2149225006.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image Source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Some on Wall Street seem to agree with Laffont</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>華爾街的一些人似乎同意拉豐特的觀點</h2>
</div><p>Coatue isn't the only firm on Wall Street predicting a steep rise in Bitcoin over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coatue 並不是華爾街上唯一預測比特幣在未來幾年將大幅上漲的公司。</p>
</div><p>Less than a year ago, Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors projected a short-term price target between $150,000 and $250,000 for Bitcoin. During a recent interview on CNBC's <em>Squawk Box</em>, not only did Lee double down on his optimistic view, but he asserted that given the limited supply of Bitcoin available and its perceived value and evolving use cases relative to other hedges (i.e., gold), its long-term price target could be more in the $3 million range -- implying a $63 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不到一年前，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的湯姆·李預測比特幣的短期價格目標在 150,000 美元到 250,000 美元之間。在最近一次接受 CNBC 的_ Squawk Box_採訪時，李不僅重申了他的樂觀觀點，還聲稱考慮到比特幣的有限供應及其相對於其他對沖工具（即黃金）的感知價值和不斷演變的使用案例，其長期價格目標可能在 300 萬美元左右——這意味着 63 萬億美元的市值。</p>
</div><p>Cathie Wood, head of Ark Invest, is forecasting a monster upside in Bitcoin as well. Her long-term forecast of $1.5 million per coin implies a market cap of $31 trillion -- well above Coatue's projection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ark Invest 的凱西·伍德也預測比特幣將有巨大的上漲空間。她對每個比特幣 150 萬美元的長期預測意味着 31 萬億美元的市值——遠高於 Coatue 的預測。</p>
</div><h2>Is Bitcoin a good buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在比特幣是個好買入嗎？</h2>
</div><p>The most important takeaway from the analysis explored above is not simply that prominent investors are calling for huge gains in the price of Bitcoin. It's understanding the idea that Bitcoin's fixed supply gives the asset a perceived value of rarity, and therefore exposure to the asset could be advantageous during times of economic uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從上述分析中最重要的結論不僅僅是知名投資者呼籲比特幣價格大幅上漲。更重要的是理解比特幣的固定供應賦予了該資產稀缺的感知價值，因此在經濟不確定時期，接觸該資產可能是有利的。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, Bitcoin remains a highly speculative and volatile item to own. If direct exposure to Bitcoin is outside of your risk profile, there are several passive ways to invest in the cryptocurrency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，比特幣仍然是一種高度投機和波動的資產。如果直接接觸比特幣超出了你的風險承受能力，還有幾種被動投資加密貨幣的方式。</p>
</div><p>For starters, investors can buy spot Bitcoin ETFs such as the <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust</strong> or Cathie Wood's <strong>ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Trust</strong>. These funds track the price movements of Bitcoin, but do not require investors to buy the cryptocurrency directly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，投資者可以購買現貨比特幣 ETF，如 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust</strong> 或凱西·伍德的 <strong>ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Trust</strong>。這些基金跟蹤比特幣的價格波動，但不要求投資者直接購買加密貨幣。</p>
</div><p>Going one step further, if investors would like to hold assets with more insulated exposure to Bitcoin, they could buy shares of crypto exchanges such as <strong>Coinbase</strong> or trading applications such as <strong>Robinhood,</strong> which has a focus on crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更進一步，如果投資者希望持有與比特幣有更隔離接觸的資產，他們可以購買加密貨幣交易所的股票，如 <strong>Coinbase</strong> 或專注於加密的交易應用程序 <strong>Robinhood</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f41c620d6fc3ec9d832f7da6b0afb13b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f41c620d6fc3ec9d832f7da6b0afb13b.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin Price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣價格數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>As the chart above illustrates, Bitcoin and some of its proxies have outperformed the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>, and gold over the last year. However, it should be noted that the broader market and gold have held up quite well, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上圖所示，比特幣及其一些代理在過去一年中表現優於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>、<strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 和黃金。然而，值得注意的是，整體市場和黃金的表現也相當不錯。</p>
</div><p>Given these dynamics, I do think some exposure to Bitcoin -- be it direct or indirect -- could be a useful complementary piece of a diversified portfolio. With that said, I do not see Bitcoin or the broader cryptocurrency opportunity as superior to traditional investment vehicles just yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這些動態，我確實認為對比特幣的某種接觸——無論是直接還是間接——可能是多元化投資組合的有用補充。話雖如此，我認為比特幣或更廣泛的加密貨幣機會尚未優於傳統投資工具。</p>
</div>

Billionaire Philippe Laffont Thinks This Could Be Worth More Than Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Tesla By 2030

- Coatue Management 預測比特幣到 2030 年市值可達 5.2 萬億美元。  
- 比特幣逐漸成為主流金融資產，受到零售投資者和機構的關注。  
- 投資者可通過比特幣 ETF 或加密交易所股票間接投資比特幣。

億萬富翁菲利普·拉豐認為，到 2030 年，這項投資可能比亞馬遜、Meta 和特斯拉更有價值