<p>似乎已經過去很久了，當時 <strong>黑莓</strong>(BB 0.23%) 是科技界的巨頭，其手機需求旺盛。但隨着更多創新技術的出現和更好的手機吸引了消費者，該公司陷入了困境。如今，它已轉向專注於企業軟件和網絡安全。</p>
<p>負責從黑莓手中奪取大量市場份額的科技公司是 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.51%)。18 年前，iPhone 首次上市時迅速獲得了人氣。然而，最近，iPhone 似乎不再是尖端手機，因為該公司推出新人工智能（AI）功能的計劃已推遲到明年。如果蘋果不盡快解決這個問題，是否有可能面臨與黑莓相同的命運？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIzMjEvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1lbGRlcmx5LXBlcnNvbi1ob2xkaW5nLWEtY2VsbC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIzMjEvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1lbGRlcmx5LXBlcnNvbi1ob2xkaW5nLWEtY2VsbC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>蘋果是否在競爭中落後太遠？</h2>
<p>蘋果已推遲其 iPhone 某些 AI 功能的推出，特別是與 Siri 助手相關的功能。這讓許多投資者擔心，蘋果不僅沒有在 AI 創新方面引領潮流，反而是在追趕。AI 能力不斷發展，問題在於，當蘋果發佈所有 AI 功能時，競爭對手的設備上可能已經有了新的功能。</p>
<p>儘管蘋果擁有龐大的用户基礎，全球約有 14 億 iPhone 用户，但該公司並沒有看到升級潮，因為消費者覺得購買新手機的理由越來越少。在該公司最近結束的財政年度（截至 2024 年 9 月 28 日），iPhone 銷售總額為 2012 億美元，與前一年持平。而與兩年前相比，銷售額下降了超過 2%。</p>
<p>目前的需求似乎並不強勁。最大的問題是，當最終需要升級設備時，蘋果用户是否會繼續選擇 iPhone，還是會有轉向其他公司手機的誘惑，而那些手機可能配備更先進的功能。</p>
<h2>為什麼投資者不必過於恐慌</h2>
<p>蘋果可能在 AI 方面看起來落後，但這並不意味着業務註定要失敗。蘋果可能不會成為下一個黑莓的最大原因是一個簡單的理由：其令人印象深刻的財務狀況。在不確定的情況下，蘋果可以收購公司或投資技術來增強其增長前景，因為它擁有龐大的財務資源。</p>
<p>即使在巔峯時期，黑莓的財務實力也遠不及今天的蘋果。在 2011 年 2 月 26 日結束的財政年度，黑莓的總收入為 199 億美元，淨收入為 34 億美元，利潤率為 17%。相比之下，蘋果在最近的財政年度報告了驚人的 937 億美元利潤，收入超過 3910 億美元。</p>
<p>而且蘋果還建立了一個完整的產品和相關服務生態系統，這些產品和服務與其 iPhone 集成；切換到其他提供商並不容易。對於許多蘋果用户來説，他們可能願意堅持等待一年，希望下一代 iPhone 值得升級。但為了某些 AI 功能而切換到其他提供商，並可能需要更改其他服務以確保一切保持兼容，現在看來並不是一個高風險的選擇。</p>
<p>除非蘋果落後於競爭對手到 iPhone 看起來過時的地步，否則推遲 AI 推出可能並不值得恐慌。蘋果不是黑莓，短期內並沒有面臨走上類似道路的危險。</p>
<h2>你今天應該購買蘋果股票嗎？</h2>
<p>蘋果的品牌依然強大，儘管推遲 AI 推出不會使業務癱瘓，但公司確實需要在創新方面做得更好。如果 iPhone 落後於競爭對手，許多消費者最終可能會感到足夠沮喪而轉向其他設備。</p>
<p>然而，我相信蘋果會更加重視創新和改善其 iPhone，以確保這種情況不會成為公司面臨的重大問題。但以超過 31 倍的市盈率來看，考慮到未來的挑戰和近期的表現，股票仍顯得有些昂貴。在這樣的估值下，我認為沒有足夠的安全邊際來考慮購買該股票。</p>
<p>我建議暫時將該股票列入觀察名單。如果股價出現更長時間的下跌，推至多年來的低點，那麼在弱勢時購買蘋果股票可能值得考慮。然而，目前，我會採取觀望態度。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果公司面臨其 iPhone 延遲推出人工智能功能的擔憂，這引發了人們對其可能重蹈黑莓衰退覆轍的恐懼。儘管在上一個財年，iPhone 的銷售額為 2012 億美元持平，但蘋果強勁的財務狀況，利潤達到 937 億美元，表明其能夠進行創新投資。儘管品牌依然強大，但股票的市盈率超過 31 倍，顯得較為昂貴。建議投資者關注該股票，以便在價格大幅下跌時尋找潛在的買入機會</p>

<p>It seems like ages ago when <strong>BlackBerry</strong>(BB 0.23%) was the big name in tech and whose cellphones were in hot demand. But as more innovative technologies emerged and better phones captivated consumers, the company struggled. Today, it has pivoted to focusing on enterprise software and cybersecurity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>似乎已經過去很久了，當時 <strong>黑莓</strong>(BB 0.23%) 是科技界的巨頭，其手機需求旺盛。但隨着更多創新技術的出現和更好的手機吸引了消費者，該公司陷入了困境。如今，它已轉向專注於企業軟件和網絡安全。</p>
</div><p>The tech company whose phones were responsible for taking significant market share from BlackBerry was <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.51%). Its iPhones soared in popularity when they first became available, 18 years ago. Lately, however, iPhones no longer look to be cutting-edge phones as the company's rollout of new artificial intelligence (AI) features has been delayed until next year. If Apple doesn't fix this situation soon, could it risk following the same path as BlackBerry?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>負責從黑莓手中奪取大量市場份額的科技公司是 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.51%)。18 年前，iPhone 首次上市時迅速獲得了人氣。然而，最近，iPhone 似乎不再是尖端手機，因為該公司推出新人工智能（AI）功能的計劃已推遲到明年。如果蘋果不盡快解決這個問題，是否有可能面臨與黑莓相同的命運？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIzMjEvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1lbGRlcmx5LXBlcnNvbi1ob2xkaW5nLWEtY2VsbC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822321%2Ffrustrated-elderly-person-holding-a-cell-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple falling too far behind the competition?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果是否在競爭中落後太遠？</h2>
</div><p>Apple has delayed the rollout of some AI features for its iPhones, specifically to do with its Siri assistant. And that has many investors worried that rather than leading the way in AI innovation, it's playing catch up. AI capabilities are constantly evolving and the danger is that by the time Apple releases all of its AI features, there could be new ones available on rival devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果已推遲其 iPhone 某些 AI 功能的推出，特別是與 Siri 助手相關的功能。這讓許多投資者擔心，蘋果不僅沒有在 AI 創新方面引領潮流，反而是在追趕。AI 能力不斷發展，問題在於，當蘋果發佈所有 AI 功能時，競爭對手的設備上可能已經有了新的功能。</p>
</div><p>While Apple has a large user base and there are around 1.4 billion iPhone users in the world, the company hasn't been seeing a wave of upgrades as consumers are seeing less of a reason to buy a new phone. In the company's most recent fiscal year, which ended on Sept. 28, 2024, iPhone sales totaled $201.2 billion and were flat from the previous year. And when compared to two years ago, their sales were down by a little more than 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管蘋果擁有龐大的用户基礎，全球約有 14 億 iPhone 用户，但該公司並沒有看到升級潮，因為消費者覺得購買新手機的理由越來越少。在該公司最近結束的財政年度（截至 2024 年 9 月 28 日），iPhone 銷售總額為 2012 億美元，與前一年持平。而與兩年前相比，銷售額下降了超過 2%。</p>
</div><p>Demand doesn't look to be all that strong right now. The big question is when it comes time to finally upgrade a device, if Apple users will stick with the iPhone, or if there will be a temptation to leave to another company, whose phones may come equipped with more advanced capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前的需求似乎並不強勁。最大的問題是，當最終需要升級設備時，蘋果用户是否會繼續選擇 iPhone，還是會有轉向其他公司手機的誘惑，而那些手機可能配備更先進的功能。</p>
</div><h2>Why investors shouldn't panic just yet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼投資者不必過於恐慌</h2>
</div><p>Apple may appear to be falling behind in AI, but that doesn't mean the business is doomed. The biggest reason why Apple may not end up being the next BlackBerry is due to one simple reason: its impressive financials. When in doubt, Apple can acquire a company or invest in a technology to bolster its growth prospects, as it has the vast financial resources to do so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果可能在 AI 方面看起來落後，但這並不意味着業務註定要失敗。蘋果可能不會成為下一個黑莓的最大原因是一個簡單的理由：其令人印象深刻的財務狀況。在不確定的情況下，蘋果可以收購公司或投資技術來增強其增長前景，因為它擁有龐大的財務資源。</p>
</div><p>Even at its peak, BlackBerry was nowhere near the financial strength that Apple is at today. In the fiscal year that ended on Feb. 26, 2011, BlackBerry's total revenue was $19.9 billion, and its net income came in at $3.4 billion, for a profit margin of 17%. Apple, by comparison, reported a staggering $93.7 billion in profit during its most recent fiscal year, with its revenue topping $391 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在巔峯時期，黑莓的財務實力也遠不及今天的蘋果。在 2011 年 2 月 26 日結束的財政年度，黑莓的總收入為 199 億美元，淨收入為 34 億美元，利潤率為 17%。相比之下，蘋果在最近的財政年度報告了驚人的 937 億美元利潤，收入超過 3910 億美元。</p>
</div><p>And Apple has also built an entire ecosystem of products and related services which integrate with its iPhones; switching to another provider simply isn't easy. For many Apple users, they may just be willing to hang on and wait for another year and hope that the next iteration of the iPhone is worth upgrading to. But switching to another provider and potentially having to change other services in order to ensure everything remains compatible, all for the sake of some AI features, doesn't seem like a high-risk scenario right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且蘋果還建立了一個完整的產品和相關服務生態系統，這些產品和服務與其 iPhone 集成；切換到其他提供商並不容易。對於許多蘋果用户來説，他們可能願意堅持等待一年，希望下一代 iPhone 值得升級。但為了某些 AI 功能而切換到其他提供商，並可能需要更改其他服務以確保一切保持兼容，現在看來並不是一個高風險的選擇。</p>
</div><p>Unless Apple were to fall so far behind its rivals that the iPhones began to look ancient, a delayed AI rollout likely isn't worth panicking over. Apple is no BlackBerry, and it's not in danger of going down a similar path anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非蘋果落後於競爭對手到 iPhone 看起來過時的地步，否則推遲 AI 推出可能並不值得恐慌。蘋果不是黑莓，短期內並沒有面臨走上類似道路的危險。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Apple stock today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你今天應該購買蘋果股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Apple's brand remains strong and while a delayed AI rollout won't cripple the business, the company does need to do a better job of innovating. If iPhones fall too far behind the competition, many consumers may eventually become frustrated enough and switch to other devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的品牌依然強大，儘管推遲 AI 推出不會使業務癱瘓，但公司確實需要在創新方面做得更好。如果 iPhone 落後於競爭對手，許多消費者最終可能會感到足夠沮喪而轉向其他設備。</p>
</div><p>However, I believe Apple will invest more heavily into innovation and improving its iPhones to ensure that scenario doesn't end up becoming a big problem for the company. But at more than 31 times its trailing earning, the stock is still looking a bit expensive given the challenges ahead and its recent performance. At such a a valuation, there isn't enough margin of safety there for me to consider buying the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我相信蘋果會更加重視創新和改善其 iPhone，以確保這種情況不會成為公司面臨的重大問題。但以超過 31 倍的市盈率來看，考慮到未來的挑戰和近期的表現，股票仍顯得有些昂貴。在這樣的估值下，我認為沒有足夠的安全邊際來考慮購買該股票。</p>
</div><p>I'd suggest keeping the stock on a watch list for now. If there's more of a prolonged drop in the share price that pushes it to multiyear lows, then it might be worth buying Apple's stock on weakness. For now, however, I'd take a wait-and-see approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我建議暫時將該股票列入觀察名單。如果股價出現更長時間的下跌，推至多年來的低點，那麼在弱勢時購買蘋果股票可能值得考慮。然而，目前，我會採取觀望態度。</p>
</div>

Will Apple Be the Next BlackBerry?

- 蘋果推遲了 iPhone 的 AI 功能發佈，引發投資者擔憂。  
- 儘管面臨挑戰，蘋果的財務狀況依然強勁，去年利潤達 937 億美元。  
- 蘋果不太可能重蹈黑莓覆轍，但需加大創新力度以保持競爭力。  

蘋果會成為下一個黑莓嗎？