<p>佛羅里達州奧蘭多，6 月 26 日（路透社）- 交易日</p><p>理解推動全球市場的力量</p><p>作者：傑米·麥基弗，市場專欄作家</p><p>週四，美元下滑，股票飆升，因為投資者加大了對美國利率即將下調的押注，此前唐納德·特朗普總統在對美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的最新攻擊中， reportedly 表示他可能會提前任命他的接替者。</p><p>在我今天的專欄中，我將探討投資者在下半年可能面臨的 “痛苦交易”。更多內容見下文，但首先，回顧一下主要市場動態。</p><p>如果你有更多時間閲讀，這裏有幾篇我推薦的文章，可以幫助你理解今天市場發生了什麼。</p><ol><li>消息人士稱特朗普對美聯儲的決定並不迫在眉睫</li><li>投資者加強防禦以應對可能的八月市場崩盤</li><li>華爾街預測美國大型銀行將因美聯儲放鬆槓桿規則而獲得意外收益</li><li>英國央行呼應央行對長期債券的敏感性：邁克·多蘭</li><li>歐盟領導人會晤決定是否支持快速達成美國貿易協議或尋求更好條款</li></ol><p>今天的關鍵市場動態</p><ul><li>全球股票創下新紀錄，標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克均接近歷史最高點。</li><li>美元指數跌至三年低點，歐元和英鎊創下自 2021 年以來的最高點，瑞士法郎達到十年高點。</li><li>外匯飆升限制了歐洲股票的表現，歐洲指數落後於美國同行。在亞洲，日本和中國股票分別創下五個月和七個月的高點。</li><li>美國國債收益率跌至自五月初以來的最低點，同時受到疲弱的美國經濟數據的壓力。收益率曲線牛市陡峭化。</li><li>鉑金再漲 4%，本月累計上漲 34% - 這是近 40 年來的最佳月份，也是歷史上第二好的月份。</li></ul><p>市場 “熱火朝天”</p><p>刺激經濟。這似乎是特朗普政府的總體計劃，最終將通過減税、放鬆監管和寬鬆的財政政策來實現。還有寬鬆的貨幣政策。毫無疑問，貨幣政策也將保持寬鬆。</p><p>白宮對美聯儲施加降息壓力並不是新鮮事。總統對美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾發起了幾次口頭攻擊，指責他未能採取行動，稱他 “非常愚蠢”、“非常笨” 和 “智商低”。</p><p>鮑威爾的主席任期將於明年五月到期，他堅稱自己不會被解僱。因此，特朗普現在考慮提前任命他的接替者，這可能會作為 “影子” 美聯儲主席，削弱鮑威爾的影響力。</p><p>這是否有效或可行尚待觀察。但這一提議的提出正在為已經開始升温的市場動態火上澆油 - 美元正在下跌，美聯儲降息的押注正在加大，股票飛漲，“大科技” 正在恢復活力。</p><p>週四，美元兑一籃子主要貨幣跌至三年多以來的最低點，尤其在對歐洲貨幣的表現上非常糟糕，並且有望創下半個世紀以來最糟糕的上半年表現。</p><p>特朗普政府可能對市場的反應感到相當滿意 - 更具出口競爭力的美元、較低的短期收益率和更高的股票。如果你進一步觀察，名義增長和超出目標的通脹將有助於減輕債務負擔。</p><p>危險在於這些變動可能會加劇，美元可能會迅速下跌，導致市場廣泛失調。但我們還沒有到達那個地步，投資者正在順勢而為。</p><p>鷹派美聯儲可能會給市場帶來最大的 “痛苦交易”</p><p>隨着上半年結束，金融市場處於停滯狀態，等待看到全球貿易協議的萬花筒在 7 月 9 日華盛頓暫停 “對等關税” 後將如何 - 或不會 - 匯聚。但如果投資者判斷失誤，哪些交易將是最脆弱的？</p><p>今天市場的懸而未決狀態顯得異常樂觀。美國的增長預測正在上升，標準普爾 500 指數明年的盈利增長預期高達 14%，企業併購活動正在增加，全球股票創下歷史新高。</p><p>唐納德·特朗普總統 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 關税後不久的不確定性似乎已成為遙遠的記憶。反彈行情持續了近三個月，僅在以色列和伊朗之間的 12 天戰爭期間短暫暫停。</p><p>這是一個相當樂觀的前景，有人可能會説過於樂觀。如果我們真的看到回調，最大的 “痛苦交易” 將是什麼？</p><p>主要的壓力點顯然是在資產類別和市場中，投資者的定位和情緒在一個方向上過於集中。正如擁擠交易所示，突然的價格反轉可能會迫使太多投資者同時撤出，意味着並非所有人都能及時退出。</p><p>為了識別最過度集中持倉，查看美國銀行的月度全球基金經理調查是很有幫助的。在 6 月的調查中，目前最擁擠的三筆交易是：做多黃金（41% 的受訪者）、做多 “七大奇蹟” 科技股（23%）和做空美元（20%）。</p><p>這種受歡迎程度當然意味着這三筆交易的盈利能力很高。</p><p>“七大奇蹟” 股票籃子包括英偉達、微軟、Meta、蘋果、亞馬遜、谷歌母公司 Alphabet 和特斯拉的股票，佔標準普爾 500 指數 2023 年和 2024 年 58% 兩年回報的超過一半。Roundhill 等權重 “七大奇蹟” ETF 今年上漲了 40%，而納斯達克 100 指數中這七隻股票佔市場總市值的超過一半，本週創下歷史新高。</p><p>與此同時，黃金價格在過去兩年半幾乎翻了一番，4 月份突破 3500 美元/盎司的歷史高點。而美元今年下跌了 10%，有望創下自 50 多年前自由浮動匯率時代以來最糟糕的上半年表現。</p><h3 id="ayv73971r">削減和……燃燒？</h3><p>在某種程度上，這三筆交易是一個基本賭注的衍生品：深信美聯儲將在未來 18 個月內大幅降低美國利率，這種情景將使所有這些頭寸成為賺錢的機會。</p><p>儘管美聯儲上週修訂的經濟預測因其鷹派傾向而引人注目，但利率期貨市場卻在加大對降息的押注，這主要是由於幾位美聯儲官員的鴿派言論和油價的急劇下跌。交易員們現在預測到明年年底將降息 125 個基點。</p><p>摩根士丹利的經濟學家們更加鴿派，預測今年不會有變化，但明年將降息 175 個基點。這將使美聯儲基金利率區間降至 2.5%-2.75%。</p><p>較低的借貸成本對那些可以預期高未來增長率的公司股票，尤其是大型科技公司，將特別有利。理論上，低利率對黃金這種無息資產也是有利的。</p><p>但另一方面，很難構建一個經濟持續增長、支持股票表現的情景，同時美聯儲又在大幅降息 175 個基點。</p><p>如此規模和速度的放鬆幾乎肯定會表明美聯儲正在試圖撲滅一場熊熊的經濟大火，很可能是嚴重的經濟放緩或衰退。雖然在這種環境下風險資產不一定會崩潰，但過度擴張的頭寸將會暴露。</p><p>誠然，這並不是投資者在過去三年中首次押注美聯儲降息，我們尚未看到因此導致的重大崩潰。市場對 “高位持續” 的利率處理得比許多觀察者警告的要好，過程中飆升至新高。</p><p>不過，如果在下半年出現 “痛苦交易”，很可能是由於一個痛點：鷹派的美聯儲。</p><p>明天可能會影響市場的因素有哪些？</p><ul><li>日本零售銷售（5 月）</li><li>日本失業率（5 月）</li><li>日本東京通脹（6 月）</li><li>日本軟銀股東大會</li><li>歐元區情緒指數（6 月）</li><li>美國個人消費支出通脹（5 月）</li><li>美國密歇根大學消費者信心、通脹預期（6 月，最終）</li><li>克利夫蘭聯儲主席貝絲·哈馬克和美聯儲理事麗莎·庫克參加 “美聯儲傾聽” 活動</li></ul><p>想要每個工作日早上在郵箱中收到《交易日》嗎？請在這裏註冊我的通訊。</p><p>所表達的觀點僅代表作者本人，不反映路透社的觀點，路透社在信託原則下致力於誠信、獨立和無偏見。</p><p>美元自由下跌</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5dfe70c49ddcffb4ecafce92e8955d51?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="962" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5dfe70c49ddcffb4ecafce92e8955d51"/></figure><p>最擁擠的交易 - 美銀基金經理調查</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/fb8d7fed3706ef90c971138139639069?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="815" height="452" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/fb8d7fed3706ef90c971138139639069"/></figure><p>隱含的美聯儲基金期貨曲線急劇下滑</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d56bfa94d527682e31b407363737fb9b?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="598" height="453" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d56bfa94d527682e31b407363737fb9b"/></figure><p>（作者：傑米·麥基弗）</p>

<p>6 月 26 日，全球市場出現顯著波動，美元下跌，股票上漲，投資者對美國即將降息的預期推動了這一趨勢。特朗普總統對美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的批評以及可能更換他的計劃加劇了市場的猜測。全球股票創下歷史新高，而美元則跌至三年來的低點。儘管美國的增長預測和企業盈利上升，前景依然樂觀，但如果美元繼續下跌，市場可能出現潛在的動盪</p>

<p>ORLANDO, Florida, June 26 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>佛羅里達州奧蘭多，6 月 26 日（路透社）- 交易日</p>
</div><p>Making sense of the forces driving global markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理解推動全球市場的力量</p>
</div><p>By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：傑米·麥基弗，市場專欄作家</p>
</div><p>The dollar slid and stocks surged on Thursday as investors ramped up bets that U.S. interest rates will soon be cut, after President Donald Trump, in his latest attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, reportedly said he may name his replacement early.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，美元下滑，股票飆升，因為投資者加大了對美國利率即將下調的押注，此前唐納德·特朗普總統在對美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的最新攻擊中， reportedly 表示他可能會提前任命他的接替者。</p>
</div><p>In my column today I look at where the “pain trades” for investors may lie in the second half of the year. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我今天的專欄中，我將探討投資者在下半年可能面臨的 “痛苦交易”。更多內容見下文，但首先，回顧一下主要市場動態。</p>
</div><p>If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你有更多時間閲讀，這裏有幾篇我推薦的文章，可以幫助你理解今天市場發生了什麼。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Trump decision on Fed not imminent, source says</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>消息人士稱特朗普對美聯儲的決定並不迫在眉睫</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Investors shore up defences against another August market rout</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>投資者加強防禦以應對可能的八月市場崩盤</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Wall Street forecasts windfall for big U.S. banks from Fed plan to ease leverage rule</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>華爾街預測美國大型銀行將因美聯儲放鬆槓桿規則而獲得意外收益</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>BoE echoes central banks’ long bond sensitivity: Mike Dolan</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>英國央行呼應央行對長期債券的敏感性：邁克·多蘭</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>EU leaders meet to decide on whether to back quick U.S. trade deal or seek better terms</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>歐盟領導人會晤決定是否支持快速達成美國貿易協議或尋求更好條款</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Today’s Key Market Moves</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的關鍵市場動態</p>
</div><ul>
<li>World stocks hit a fresh record peak, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq both get to within a whisker of their all-time highs.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>全球股票創下新紀錄，標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克均接近歷史最高點。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Dollar index falls to a 3-year low, the euro and sterling hit highest since 2021, the Swiss franc hits a decade high.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美元指數跌至三年低點，歐元和英鎊創下自 2021 年以來的最高點，瑞士法郎達到十年高點。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Soaring FX caps stocks in Europe, where indices lag U.S. peers. In Asia, Japanese, Chinese stocks hit 5-month and 7-month highs, respectively.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>外匯飆升限制了歐洲股票的表現，歐洲指數落後於美國同行。在亞洲，日本和中國股票分別創下五個月和七個月的高點。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. Treasury yields fall to lowest since early May, also pressured by weak U.S. economic data. Curve bull steepens.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美國國債收益率跌至自五月初以來的最低點，同時受到疲弱的美國經濟數據的壓力。收益率曲線牛市陡峭化。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Platinum rises another 4%, now up 34% this month - its best month in nearly 40 years and second best ever.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>鉑金再漲 4%，本月累計上漲 34% - 這是近 40 年來的最佳月份，也是歷史上第二好的月份。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Markets ‘run it hot’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場 “熱火朝天”</p>
</div><p>Juice the economy. That seems to be the Trump administration’s broad plan, which will be achieved in time by tax cuts, deregulation, and loose fiscal policy. And loose monetary policy. Most definitely loose monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刺激經濟。這似乎是特朗普政府的總體計劃，最終將通過減税、放鬆監管和寬鬆的財政政策來實現。還有寬鬆的貨幣政策。毫無疑問，貨幣政策也將保持寬鬆。</p>
</div><p>Pressure from the White House on the Fed to cut interest rates is nothing new. The president has unleashed several verbal tirades towards Chair Jerome Powell for not doing so, branding him “very stupid”, “very dumb” and of “low IQ”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宮對美聯儲施加降息壓力並不是新鮮事。總統對美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾發起了幾次口頭攻擊，指責他未能採取行動，稱他 “非常愚蠢”、“非常笨” 和 “智商低”。</p>
</div><p>Powell’s term as chair expires in May next year, and he insists he can’t be fired. So Trump is now considering naming his replacement early, who could operate as a “shadow” Fed chair, undermining Powell’s influence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾的主席任期將於明年五月到期，他堅稱自己不會被解僱。因此，特朗普現在考慮提前任命他的接替者，這可能會作為 “影子” 美聯儲主席，削弱鮑威爾的影響力。</p>
</div><p>It remains to be seen how effective or even viable this would be. But the fact it’s being floated is pouring fuel on market moves that were already beginning to catch fire - the dollar is tumbling, Fed rate cut bets are being ramped up, stocks are flying, and “Big Tech” is getting its mojo back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是否有效或可行尚待觀察。但這一提議的提出正在為已經開始升温的市場動態火上澆油 - 美元正在下跌，美聯儲降息的押注正在加大，股票飛漲，“大科技” 正在恢復活力。</p>
</div><p>The dollar on Thursday slumped to its lowest in more than three years against a basket of major currencies - performing especially poorly against European currencies - and is on track for its worst first half of any year in over half a century.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，美元兑一籃子主要貨幣跌至三年多以來的最低點，尤其在對歐洲貨幣的表現上非常糟糕，並且有望創下半個世紀以來最糟糕的上半年表現。</p>
</div><p>The Trump administration will likely be quite happy with the way markets are reacting - a more export-competitive dollar, lower short-term yields, and higher stocks. And if you look further out, higher nominal growth and above-target inflation to inflate away the debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府可能對市場的反應感到相當滿意 - 更具出口競爭力的美元、較低的短期收益率和更高的股票。如果你進一步觀察，名義增長和超出目標的通脹將有助於減輕債務負擔。</p>
</div><p>The danger is these moves snowball and the dollar goes into a more rapid freefall, triggering widespread market dislocation. But we’re not there yet, and investors are running with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>危險在於這些變動可能會加劇，美元可能會迅速下跌，導致市場廣泛失調。但我們還沒有到達那個地步，投資者正在順勢而為。</p>
</div><p>Hawkish Fed could inflict markets’ biggest ‘pain trades’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鷹派美聯儲可能會給市場帶來最大的 “痛苦交易”</p>
</div><p>As the first half of the year closes, financial markets are in limbo, waiting to see how the kaleidoscope of global trade deals will – or won’t – come together after July 9, when Washington’s pause on its “reciprocal tariffs” expires. But if investors are wrong-footed, which trades will be the most vulnerable?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着上半年結束，金融市場處於停滯狀態，等待看到全球貿易協議的萬花筒在 7 月 9 日華盛頓暫停 “對等關税” 後將如何 - 或不會 - 匯聚。但如果投資者判斷失誤，哪些交易將是最脆弱的？</p>
</div><p>The state of suspended animation in today’s markets is remarkably bullish. U.S. growth forecasts are rising, S&amp;P 500 earnings growth estimates for next year are running at a punchy 14%, corporate deal-making is picking up, and world stocks are at record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天市場的懸而未決狀態顯得異常樂觀。美國的增長預測正在上升，標準普爾 500 指數明年的盈利增長預期高達 14%，企業併購活動正在增加，全球股票創下歷史新高。</p>
</div><p>The uncertainty immediately following President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs seems a distant memory. The relief rally has ripped for nearly three months, only taking a brief pause during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唐納德·特朗普總統 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 關税後不久的不確定性似乎已成為遙遠的記憶。反彈行情持續了近三個月，僅在以色列和伊朗之間的 12 天戰爭期間短暫暫停。</p>
</div><p>It’s a pretty rosy outlook, some might say too rosy. If we do see a pullback, what will be the biggest “pain trades”?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個相當樂觀的前景，有人可能會説過於樂觀。如果我們真的看到回調，最大的 “痛苦交易” 將是什麼？</p>
</div><p>The major pressure points are, unsurprisingly, in asset classes and markets where positioning and sentiment are most overloaded in one direction. As always with crowded trades, a sudden price reversal can push too many investors to the exit door at once, meaning not all will get out in time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要的壓力點顯然是在資產類別和市場中，投資者的定位和情緒在一個方向上過於集中。正如擁擠交易所示，突然的價格反轉可能會迫使太多投資者同時撤出，意味着並非所有人都能及時退出。</p>
</div><p>To identify the most overloaded positions, it’s useful to look at the Bank of America’s monthly global fund manager survey. In the June survey, the top three most-crowded trades right now are long gold (according to 41% of those polled), long “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks (23%), and short U.S. dollar (20%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了識別最過度集中持倉，查看美國銀行的月度全球基金經理調查是很有幫助的。在 6 月的調查中，目前最擁擠的三筆交易是：做多黃金（41% 的受訪者）、做多 “七大奇蹟” 科技股（23%）和做空美元（20%）。</p>
</div><p>This popularity, of course, means these three trades have been highly profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種受歡迎程度當然意味着這三筆交易的盈利能力很高。</p>
</div><p>The “Mag 7” basket of Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla shares accounted for well over half of the S&amp;P 500’s 58% two-year return in 2023 and 2024. The Roundhill equal-weighted “Mag 7” ETF is up 40% this year, and the Nasdaq 100 index, in which these seven stocks make up more than half of the market cap, this week hit a record high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“七大奇蹟” 股票籃子包括英偉達、微軟、Meta、蘋果、亞馬遜、谷歌母公司 Alphabet 和特斯拉的股票，佔標準普爾 500 指數 2023 年和 2024 年 58% 兩年回報的超過一半。Roundhill 等權重 “七大奇蹟” ETF 今年上漲了 40%，而納斯達克 100 指數中這七隻股票佔市場總市值的超過一半，本週創下歷史新高。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the gold price has virtually doubled in the last two-and-a-half years, smashing its way to a record high $3,500 an ounce in April. And the dollar is down 10% this year, on track for its worst first half of any year since the era of free-floating exchange rates was established more than 50 years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，黃金價格在過去兩年半幾乎翻了一番，4 月份突破 3500 美元/盎司的歷史高點。而美元今年下跌了 10%，有望創下自 50 多年前自由浮動匯率時代以來最糟糕的上半年表現。</p>
</div><h3>SLASH AND … BURN?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>削減和……燃燒？</h3>
</div><p>In some ways, these three trades are an offshoot of one fundamental bet: the deep-rooted view that the Federal Reserve will cut U.S. interest rates quite substantially in the next 18 months, a scenario that would make all these positions money-spinners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某種程度上，這三筆交易是一個基本賭注的衍生品：深信美聯儲將在未來 18 個月內大幅降低美國利率，這種情景將使所有這些頭寸成為賺錢的機會。</p>
</div><p>Even though the Fed’s revised economic projections last week were notable for their hawkish tilt, rates futures markets have been upping their bets on lower rates, largely due to dovish comments from several Fed officials and a sharp fall in oil prices. Traders are now predicting 125 basis points of rate cuts by the end of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美聯儲上週修訂的經濟預測因其鷹派傾向而引人注目，但利率期貨市場卻在加大對降息的押注，這主要是由於幾位美聯儲官員的鴿派言論和油價的急劇下跌。交易員們現在預測到明年年底將降息 125 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Economists at Morgan Stanley are even more dovish, forecasting no change this year but 175 basis points of cuts next year. That would take the Fed funds range down to 2.5%-2.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的經濟學家們更加鴿派，預測今年不會有變化，但明年將降息 175 個基點。這將使美聯儲基金利率區間降至 2.5%-2.75%。</p>
</div><p>Lower borrowing costs would be especially positive for shares in companies that can expect high future growth rates, like Big Tech. Low rates are also, in theory, good for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>較低的借貸成本對那些可以預期高未來增長率的公司股票，尤其是大型科技公司，將特別有利。理論上，低利率對黃金這種無息資產也是有利的。</p>
</div><p>But, on the flip side, it’s difficult to construct a scenario in which the economy is chugging along, supporting equity performance, while the Fed is also slashing rates by 175 bps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但另一方面，很難構建一個經濟持續增長、支持股票表現的情景，同時美聯儲又在大幅降息 175 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Easing on that scale and at that speed would almost certainly signal that the Fed was trying to put out a raging economic fire, most likely a severe slowdown or recession. While risk assets may not necessarily collapse in that environment, over-extended positions would be exposed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此規模和速度的放鬆幾乎肯定會表明美聯儲正在試圖撲滅一場熊熊的經濟大火，很可能是嚴重的經濟放緩或衰退。雖然在這種環境下風險資產不一定會崩潰，但過度擴張的頭寸將會暴露。</p>
</div><p>Granted, this isn’t the first time investors have banked on Fed cuts in the past three years, and we have yet to see a major blow-up as a result. Markets have handled “higher-for-longer” rates much better than many observers warned, soaring to new highs in the process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>誠然，這並不是投資者在過去三年中首次押注美聯儲降息，我們尚未看到因此導致的重大崩潰。市場對 “高位持續” 的利率處理得比許多觀察者警告的要好，過程中飆升至新高。</p>
</div><p>Still, if “pain trades” do emerge in the second half of the year, it will likely be because of one sore spot: a hawkish Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，如果在下半年出現 “痛苦交易”，很可能是由於一個痛點：鷹派的美聯儲。</p>
</div><p>What could move markets tomorrow?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明天可能會影響市場的因素有哪些？</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan retail sales (May)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本零售銷售（5 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan unemployment (May)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本失業率（5 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan Tokyo inflation (June)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本東京通脹（6 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan Softbank AGM</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本軟銀股東大會</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Euro zone sentiment indexes (June)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>歐元區情緒指數（6 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. PCE inflation (May)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美國個人消費支出通脹（5 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation expectations (June, final)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美國密歇根大學消費者信心、通脹預期（6 月，最終）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Lisa Cook participate in ‘Fed Listens’ event</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>克利夫蘭聯儲主席貝絲·哈馬克和美聯儲理事麗莎·庫克參加 “美聯儲傾聽” 活動</li>
</ul>
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</div><p>Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所表達的觀點僅代表作者本人，不反映路透社的觀點，路透社在信託原則下致力於誠信、獨立和無偏見。</p>
</div><p>Dollar free falling</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元自由下跌</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3I2xY5D" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3I2xY5D"/></p>
<p>Most crowded trades - BofA fund manager survey</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最擁擠的交易 - 美銀基金經理調查</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/44jb9SN" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/44jb9SN"/></p>
<p>Implied Fed funds futures curve lurches lower</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隱含的美聯儲基金期貨曲線急劇下滑</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Gizb8p" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Gizb8p"/></p>
<p>(By Jamie McGeever)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：傑米·麥基弗）</p>
</div>

TRADING DAY-Markets 'run it hot'

- 美元下滑，股市上漲，因投資者預期美聯儲將降息。  
- 全球股市創下新高，美元指數跌至三年低點。  
- 投資者關注美聯儲政策變化，可能導致市場波動。

交易日——市場 “熱火朝天”