<p>Rae Wee 對歐洲和全球市場的前景展望</p><p>週五，亞洲股市攀升至三年多以來的最高點，歐洲市場也有望加入這一漲勢，因市場在經歷了幾周的中東緊張局勢和關税不確定性後變得樂觀。</p><p>華爾街在隔夜引領了這一趨勢，投資者關注到最新的積極進展：以色列和伊朗之間脆弱的停火協議繼續維持，而中美貿易緊張局勢則顯示出進一步緩和的初步跡象。</p><p>市場對美聯儲進一步降息的預期也在上升，隨着更温和的美聯儲主席的前景和持續疲軟的美國經濟數據。</p><p>在貿易方面，一位白宮官員週四表示，美國已與中國達成協議，以加快稀土礦石向美國的運輸。</p><p>對投資者來説，利好因素還包括美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特要求國會的共和黨人從其廣泛的預算立法中刪除針對外國投資者的 “報復性税” 提案。</p><p>週五市場的下一個關鍵將是美國核心個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數的發佈，這可能為美聯儲的利率軌跡提供額外線索。</p><p>到目前為止，特朗普總統的關税並未顯現出導致國內消費價格大幅上漲的跡象，這讓許多投資者感到擔憂，儘管美聯儲官員表示現在還為時尚早。</p><p>如果週五的 PCE 數據出現意外下滑，可能會加大市場對美聯儲今年進一步寬鬆的押注。</p><p>在過去兩個交易日中，美聯儲的利率前景和主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在央行的未來一直是市場關注的焦點，此前《華爾街日報》報道稱，特朗普考慮在九月或十月宣佈鮑威爾的接替人選。</p><p>這將使鮑威爾在其任期的最後六次會議中面臨 “陰影”。</p><p>這些發展引發了美元的大規模拋售，投資者對美聯儲的獨立性感到擔憂，並押注鮑威爾將被更傾向於降息的人選取代。</p><p>週五，美元徘徊在三年半低點附近，預計將迎來一個多月以來最糟糕的一週。</p><p>截至目前，美元今年已下跌超過 10%，如果最新的損失持續到月底，將標誌着自 1970 年代初自由浮動貨幣時代以來上半年最大跌幅。</p><p>可能影響週五市場的關鍵發展：</p><ul><li>法國初步通脹（六月）</li><li>美國 PCE 價格指數（五月）想要跟上最新的關税新聞？我們的新每日新聞摘要提供了影響全球貿易的市場動態頭條的概述。請在此註冊《關税觀察》。</li></ul><p>美國市場今年的表現如何</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b0efe867bd7efe815e80cb088d232e51?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="830" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b0efe867bd7efe815e80cb088d232e51"/></figure><p>專家認為美聯儲的未來走向</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/de21eb73e76123a4a6b7af8c9a74cea6?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="812" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/de21eb73e76123a4a6b7af8c9a74cea6"/></figure><p>（作者：Rae Wee；編輯：Edmund Klamann）</p>

<p>歐洲和全球市場樂觀，亞洲股市創下三年新高，受到中東脆弱停火和中美貿易緊張局勢緩解的提振。對美聯儲進一步降息的預期正在上升，尤其是在美國經濟數據疲軟的背景下。一個關鍵關注點是即將公佈的美國核心個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數，這可能會影響美聯儲的利率走向。美元接近 3.5 年來的低點，反映出對美聯儲獨立性和潛在領導層變動的擔憂。主要動態包括法國的初步通脹數據和美國 PCE 價格指數的發佈</p>

<p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rae Wee 對歐洲和全球市場的前景展望</p>
</div><p>Asian shares climbed to their highest in more than three years on Friday and Europe looked set to join the rally, as markets turned optimistic after weathering a few weeks of heightened Middle East tensions and uncertainties over tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五，亞洲股市攀升至三年多以來的最高點，歐洲市場也有望加入這一漲勢，因市場在經歷了幾周的中東緊張局勢和關税不確定性後變得樂觀。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street set the pace overnight when investors latched onto the latest upbeat developments: The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran continued to hold, and China-U.S. trade tensions showed tentative signs of further easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街在隔夜引領了這一趨勢，投資者關注到最新的積極進展：以色列和伊朗之間脆弱的停火協議繼續維持，而中美貿易緊張局勢則顯示出進一步緩和的初步跡象。</p>
</div><p>Expectations were also rising for more rate cuts by the Fed, with the prospect of a more dovish Fed chair on the horizon and continued weak U.S. economic data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場對美聯儲進一步降息的預期也在上升，隨着更温和的美聯儲主席的前景和持續疲軟的美國經濟數據。</p>
</div><p>On the trade front, a White House official said on Thursday the United States had reached an agreement with China on how to expedite rare earths shipments to the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在貿易方面，一位白宮官員週四表示，美國已與中國達成協議，以加快稀土礦石向美國的運輸。</p>
</div><p>Adding to tailwinds for investors, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asked Republicans in Congress to remove from their sweeping budget legislation a “retaliatory tax” proposal that targets foreign investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對投資者來説，利好因素還包括美國財政部長斯科特·貝森特要求國會的共和黨人從其廣泛的預算立法中刪除針對外國投資者的 “報復性税” 提案。</p>
</div><p>The next key for markets on Friday will be the release of the core PCE price index in the U.S., which could offer additional clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五市場的下一個關鍵將是美國核心個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數的發佈，這可能為美聯儲的利率軌跡提供額外線索。</p>
</div><p>There have been few signs thus far that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are causing the huge spike in domestic consumer prices that many investors had feared, although Fed officials have said it is still too early to tell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，特朗普總統的關税並未顯現出導致國內消費價格大幅上漲的跡象，這讓許多投資者感到擔憂，儘管美聯儲官員表示現在還為時尚早。</p>
</div><p>Any downside surprise in Friday’s PCE numbers could fuel bets on more easing by the Fed this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果週五的 PCE 數據出現意外下滑，可能會加大市場對美聯儲今年進一步寬鬆的押注。</p>
</div><p>The Fed’s rate outlook and Chair Jerome Powell’s future at the central bank have been front and centre for markets over the past two sessions, after the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has toyed with the idea of announcing Powell’s replacement by September or October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去兩個交易日中，美聯儲的利率前景和主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在央行的未來一直是市場關注的焦點，此前《華爾街日報》報道稱，特朗普考慮在九月或十月宣佈鮑威爾的接替人選。</p>
</div><p>That would leave Powell with a “shadow” looming over him for the last six meetings of his tenure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將使鮑威爾在其任期的最後六次會議中面臨 “陰影”。</p>
</div><p>These developments have triggered a wave of heavy dollar selling as investors fret about the Fed’s independence and bet that Powell will be replaced by somebody more inclined towards rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些發展引發了美元的大規模拋售，投資者對美聯儲的獨立性感到擔憂，並押注鮑威爾將被更傾向於降息的人選取代。</p>
</div><p>The dollar languished near a 3-1⁄2-year low on Friday and was set for its worst week in more than a month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五，美元徘徊在三年半低點附近，預計將迎來一個多月以來最糟糕的一週。</p>
</div><p>The dollar is already down more than 10% for the year thus far and, if the latest losses hold until the end of the month, it will mark its biggest fall for the first half of the year since the start of the era of free-floating currencies in the early 1970s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，美元今年已下跌超過 10%，如果最新的損失持續到月底，將標誌着自 1970 年代初自由浮動貨幣時代以來上半年最大跌幅。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影響週五市場的關鍵發展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>France preliminary inflation (June)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>法國初步通脹（六月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. PCE price index (May) Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美國 PCE 價格指數（五月）想要跟上最新的關税新聞？我們的新每日新聞摘要提供了影響全球貿易的市場動態頭條的概述。請在此註冊《關税觀察》。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>How US markets have performed this year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國市場今年的表現如何</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4nnpYfL" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4nnpYfL"/></p>
<p>Where experts think the Fed is headed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>專家認為美聯儲的未來走向</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4nnhaGK" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4nnhaGK"/></p>
<p>(By Rae Wee; Editing by Edmund Klamann)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Rae Wee；編輯：Edmund Klamann）</p>
</div>

Stock markets opt for optimism

- 亞洲股市攀升至三年高點，歐洲市場也將加入反彈。  
- 美國與中國達成稀土運輸協議，市場對美聯儲降息預期上升。  
- 週五將發佈美國核心 PCE 價格指數，可能影響美聯儲的利率走向。  

股市選擇樂觀情緒