<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.56%) 今年讓投資者感到失望。截至目前，股價下跌約 19%。而同期 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 則上漲約 4%。該股的表現不佳主要是由於公司的增長令人失望。例如，蘋果在上半年的收入同比僅增長 4.4%。</p>
<p>隨着這家科技公司的年收入自 2022 年以來徘徊在約 400 億美元的水平，市場對這家 iPhone 製造商可能接近其全球銷售潛力的擔憂加劇。但在你對蘋果失去信心之前，請考慮以下對該股票的獨特看漲理由。這可能會改變你的看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI4OTgvc3RvY2stdXAtYXBwbGUtYnV5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI4OTgvc3RvY2stdXAtYXBwbGUtYnV5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>只需一款成功的新產品</h2>
<p>蘋果的產品線高度集中，通常被視為公司的風險。例如，iPhone 佔蘋果總銷售額的約一半，這意味着該關鍵類別的任何疲軟都會對整體業務產生重大影響。更進一步，蘋果的集中風險在於，僅有三個產品類別——iPhone、Mac 和 iPad——就佔據了公司年總銷售額的約三分之二。此外，如果將公司的可穿戴設備、家居和配件部門（主要由 Apple Watch 和 AirPods 的銷售組成）納入蘋果產品類別集中度的評估中，僅有五個產品線就佔據了總銷售額的約四分之三。</p>
<p>剩餘的銷售額來自蘋果的服務部門，該部門在多種服務中實現了多元化，利潤率更高，且比硬件銷售更具可預測性。</p>
<p>但如果換個角度來看，這種產品集中度也有另一種解讀。蘋果強大的商業模式及其全球忠實的客户基礎使其能夠僅通過四個產品類別每年創造約 3000 億美元的產品銷售。因此，考慮到單一產品類別對公司業績的影響，一款成功的新產品可能會成為公司的重大助力。</p>
<p>實際上，這正是蘋果在 AirPods 和 Apple Watch 上所做的。得益於這些標誌性且廣受歡迎的設備的推出，從 2015 年的 Apple Watch 到 2016 年的 AirPods，公司的可穿戴設備、家居和配件部門如今佔總銷售額的 9% 以上。而回顧過去，公司在 2010 年推出 iPad 時也做了同樣的事情。如今，iPad 佔總銷售額的 7%。</p>
<p>所有這些都表明，如果蘋果在新產品類別中取得成功，公司的銷售增長率可能會顯著加速。</p>
<h2>服務飛輪</h2>
<p>進一步加強對蘋果的投資論點，這裏的分析可能低估了新產品類別對整體業務的影響。原因在於，每一款新產品對其他業務領域都有飛輪效應。例如，當客户購買他們的第一款 Apple Watch 或 iPad 時，可能會增加他們與蘋果生態系統的整體互動，從而導致更高的服務收入、更大的忠誠度，最終提高客户的終身價值。</p>
<p>如今，蘋果已經在探索可能在未來轉變為主要收入來源的新產品類別。其中最顯著的是公司在空間計算領域的嘗試，推出了 Vision Pro。蘋果首席執行官蒂姆·庫克在新設備開始交付前表示，這款新眼鏡標誌着空間計算的新紀元。儘管這款新產品仍被視為大多數客户會放棄的利基產品，但它表明公司願意探索可能成為下一個 iPad、Apple Watch 或 AirPods 的新領域。此外，投資者也不應排除 Vision Pro 作為潛在未來催化劑的可能性。儘管目前它不是公司的主要驅動力，但未來版本的設備可能會在客户效用上達到一個轉折點。</p>
<p>綜上所述，蘋果股票的市盈率約為 31，似乎已經反映了未來某個時點回歸更高增長率的預期。但這一論點至少有助於加強在這一增長低迷期持有股票的理由。</p>
<p>不過，風險依然顯著。例如，蘋果的銷售增長率可能永遠無法恢復到強勁的高個位數水平。這樣的不幸結果可能是由於公司某一主要產品類別的疲軟，或是未能在任何新類別中獲得 traction。但即使考慮到這些風險，整體的風險回報特徵似乎仍然足夠吸引人，值得持有股票。公司在過去十年中僅憑少數產品類別實現如此增長，表明蘋果在未來十年內可能會找到另一個新類別，幫助公司重返強勁增長。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果的股票在今年表現不佳，截至目前下跌了 19%，而標準普爾 500 指數則上漲了 4%。人們對收入增長緩慢表示擔憂，主要是由於 iPhone 的銷售佔其總銷售額的一半。然而，一款成功的新產品可能會顯著提升銷售，正如 Apple Watch 和 AirPods 所展現的那樣。公司的服務部門也提供了增長的潛力。儘管面臨增長停滯的風險，但持有蘋果股票的整體風險回報特徵仍然具有吸引力，尤其是在 Vision Pro 等空間計算的新業務推出之際</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.56%) has underwhelmed investors this year. As of this writing, shares are down about 19% year to date. That compares with a gain of about 4% for the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> during the same time frame. The stock's underperformance has been driven by the company's disappointing growth. Apple's revenue in the first half of the year, for instance, grew just 4.4% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.56%) 今年讓投資者感到失望。截至目前，股價下跌約 19%。而同期 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 則上漲約 4%。該股的表現不佳主要是由於公司的增長令人失望。例如，蘋果在上半年的收入同比僅增長 4.4%。</p>
</div><p>With the tech company's total annual revenue hovering at around the $400 million level since 2022, there are some concerns that the iPhone maker may be nearing its maximum global sales potential. But before you count Apple out, consider the following unique bull case for the stock. It might change your mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着這家科技公司的年收入自 2022 年以來徘徊在約 400 億美元的水平，市場對這家 iPhone 製造商可能接近其全球銷售潛力的擔憂加劇。但在你對蘋果失去信心之前，請考慮以下對該股票的獨特看漲理由。這可能會改變你的看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI4OTgvc3RvY2stdXAtYXBwbGUtYnV5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822898%2Fstock-up-apple-buy.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>All it would take is one successful new product</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>只需一款成功的新產品</h2>
</div><p>Apple's concentrated product line is primarily viewed as a risk for the company. For example, the fact that the iPhone accounts for about half of Apple's total sales means that any weakness in the key category will weigh heavily on the overall business. Adding to Apple's concentration risk, just three product categories -- iPhone, Mac, and iPad -- account for about two-thirds of the company's total annual sales. In addition, if you include the company's wearables, home, and accessories segment, primarily consisting of sales of Apple Watch and AirPods, in an assessment of Apple's product category concentration, just five product lines represent about three-fourths of total sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的產品線高度集中，通常被視為公司的風險。例如，iPhone 佔蘋果總銷售額的約一半，這意味着該關鍵類別的任何疲軟都會對整體業務產生重大影響。更進一步，蘋果的集中風險在於，僅有三個產品類別——iPhone、Mac 和 iPad——就佔據了公司年總銷售額的約三分之二。此外，如果將公司的可穿戴設備、家居和配件部門（主要由 Apple Watch 和 AirPods 的銷售組成）納入蘋果產品類別集中度的評估中，僅有五個產品線就佔據了總銷售額的約四分之三。</p>
</div><p>The remaining sales come from Apple's services segment, which is diversified across a range of services, has a higher profit margin, and is more predictable than hardware sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剩餘的銷售額來自蘋果的服務部門，該部門在多種服務中實現了多元化，利潤率更高，且比硬件銷售更具可預測性。</p>
</div><p>But if you flip the script, there's another way to look at this product concentration. Apple's powerful business model and its global and loyal customer base enable it to generate about $300 billion worth of product sales annually from just four product categories. Therefore, considering how much a single product category can move the needle for the company, a single successful new product would be a likely major tailwind for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果換個角度來看，這種產品集中度也有另一種解讀。蘋果強大的商業模式及其全球忠實的客户基礎使其能夠僅通過四個產品類別每年創造約 3000 億美元的產品銷售。因此，考慮到單一產品類別對公司業績的影響，一款成功的新產品可能會成為公司的重大助力。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, this is exactly what Apple did with AirPods and Apple Watch. Thanks to the launch of these iconic and wildly popular devices, starting with the Apple Watch in 2015 and the AirPods in 2016, the company's wearables, home, and accessories segment now represents more than 9% of total sales. And, looking further back, the company did the same thing with the iPad when it was launched in 2010. Today, the iPad represents 7% of total sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>實際上，這正是蘋果在 AirPods 和 Apple Watch 上所做的。得益於這些標誌性且廣受歡迎的設備的推出，從 2015 年的 Apple Watch 到 2016 年的 AirPods，公司的可穿戴設備、家居和配件部門如今佔總銷售額的 9% 以上。而回顧過去，公司在 2010 年推出 iPad 時也做了同樣的事情。如今，iPad 佔總銷售額的 7%。</p>
</div><p>All of this to say, the company's sales growth rates could materially accelerate if Apple sees success in a new product category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些都表明，如果蘋果在新產品類別中取得成功，公司的銷售增長率可能會顯著加速。</p>
</div><h2>The services flywheel</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>服務飛輪</h2>
</div><p>Strengthening this investment thesis for Apple even more, the analysis here arguably understates the impact of new product categories on the overall business. The reason is that every new product has a flywheel effect on other areas of the business, too. For instance, when a customer buys his or her first Apple Watch or iPad, it's likely to increase overall engagement with the Apple ecosystem, leading to higher services revenue, greater loyalty, and ultimately higher lifetime customer value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進一步加強對蘋果的投資論點，這裏的分析可能低估了新產品類別對整體業務的影響。原因在於，每一款新產品對其他業務領域都有飛輪效應。例如，當客户購買他們的第一款 Apple Watch 或 iPad 時，可能會增加他們與蘋果生態系統的整體互動，從而導致更高的服務收入、更大的忠誠度，最終提高客户的終身價值。</p>
</div><p>Today, Apple is already venturing into new product categories that could morph into major revenue streams in the future. The most notable one is the company's foray into spatial computing with Vision Pro. Launched just last year, these new goggles mark a new era of spatial computing, Apple CEO Tim Cook said just before deliveries of the new device started. While the new product is still considered a niche item that most customers pass on, it shows that the company is willing to explore new areas that could become the next iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods for the company. In addition, investors shouldn't rule out Vision Pro specifically as a potential future catalyst. While it's not a major driver for the company today, future iterations of the device could lead to a tipping point in customer utility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，蘋果已經在探索可能在未來轉變為主要收入來源的新產品類別。其中最顯著的是公司在空間計算領域的嘗試，推出了 Vision Pro。蘋果首席執行官蒂姆·庫克在新設備開始交付前表示，這款新眼鏡標誌着空間計算的新紀元。儘管這款新產品仍被視為大多數客户會放棄的利基產品，但它表明公司願意探索可能成為下一個 iPad、Apple Watch 或 AirPods 的新領域。此外，投資者也不應排除 Vision Pro 作為潛在未來催化劑的可能性。儘管目前它不是公司的主要驅動力，但未來版本的設備可能會在客户效用上達到一個轉折點。</p>
</div><p>With all of this said, Apple stock's price-to-earnings ratio of about 31 already seems to price in a return to higher growth rates at some point in the future. But this thesis at least helps strengthen the case for holding shares through this lull in growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜上所述，蘋果股票的市盈率約為 31，似乎已經反映了未來某個時點回歸更高增長率的預期。但這一論點至少有助於加強在這一增長低迷期持有股票的理由。</p>
</div><p>Still, the risks are significant. For instance, it's possible Apple's sales growth rates will never return to robust high-single-digit rates. An unfortunate outcome like this could be caused by weakness in one of the company's major product categories or simply a failure to gain traction in any new categories. But even with these risks in mind, the overall risk-reward profile seems attractive enough to hold onto shares. The fact that the company has been able to grow as much as it has over the past decade with just a handful of product categories suggests that Apple will likely find another new category over the next decade to help the company return to strong growth again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，風險依然顯著。例如，蘋果的銷售增長率可能永遠無法恢復到強勁的高個位數水平。這樣的不幸結果可能是由於公司某一主要產品類別的疲軟，或是未能在任何新類別中獲得 traction。但即使考慮到這些風險，整體的風險回報特徵似乎仍然足夠吸引人，值得持有股票。公司在過去十年中僅憑少數產品類別實現如此增長，表明蘋果在未來十年內可能會找到另一個新類別，幫助公司重返強勁增長。</p>
</div>

A Bull Case for Apple: Is It a Sleeping Giant?

- 蘋果公司股價今年下跌約 19%，與標普 500 指數的 4% 增長形成對比。  
- 公司的營收增長乏力，第一季度同比僅增長 4.4%。  
- 新產品的成功可能會顯著推動銷售增長，尤其是服務業務的飛輪效應。  

蘋果的牛市論點：它是否是一個沉睡的巨人？