<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.67%) 的股票處於一個棘手的境地。分析師預計下個季度的收益將比去年同期下降近 30%。然而，從市銷率來看，該股票的估值仍然高達 12.6。</p>
<p>另一方面，<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>，另一家電動車股票，僅以 2.9 倍的銷售額交易。</p>
<p>儘管未來的盈利增長乏力，特斯拉股票似乎仍然被定價為大幅增長。但下面詳細説明的風險因素可能會在未來幾年對特斯拉的增長軌跡造成更大的打擊。每位投資者都需要仔細監控這一點。</p>
<h2>這個風險因素可能會懲罰特斯拉股票</h2>
<p>目前，特斯拉超過 90% 的汽車銷售來自兩款車型：Model 3 和 Model Y。兩者的起售價均低於 50,000 美元。根據 2024 年 AutoPacific 的一項研究，大多數美國人希望在下一次購車時花費少於 50,000 美元，因此特斯拉在吸引數千萬預算買家方面處於有利位置。</p>
<p>為了讓特斯拉更加實惠，買家長期以來可以申請聯邦税收抵免，最高可達 7,500 美元。Model 3 和 Model Y 均符合這些税收抵免。甚至一些特斯拉的高價車型，如入門級 Cybertruck，也符合條件。結果是消費者的有效購買價格降低，從而對特斯拉的產品需求增加。</p>
<p>問題在於：聯邦税收抵免可能即將取消。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI3NzYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ1ODIzNDc1OS0xMjAxeDY5OS1kMmMwNTE2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="407" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI3NzYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ1ODIzNDc1OS0xMjAxeDY5OS1kMmMwNTE2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>特朗普總統的新法案要求立即取消聯邦電動車税收激勵。如果這發生，特斯拉的銷售會怎樣？超過一半的電動車買家表示，税收抵免是他們購買的決定性因素。當 2023 年德國的電動車激勵措施突然結束時，電動車銷售在接下來的六個月內下降了超過 16%。</p>
<p>如果美國取消税收抵免，預計特斯拉的銷售和收益將會下降。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

南方兩倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票面臨挑戰，分析師預測下個季度的收益將下降近 30%，而其市銷率仍高達 12.6。該公司對售價在 50,000 美元以下的 Model 3 和 Model Y 的依賴，使其在預算有限的買家中具有良好的市場定位。然而，提議取消聯邦電動車税收抵免的立法可能會對銷售產生重大影響，因為超過一半的電動車買家將這些抵免視為購買決策的關鍵因素。在德國，類似的情況導致在取消激勵措施後電動車銷售下降了 16%</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.67%) stock is in a tricky place. Analysts expect earnings to drop by nearly 30% next quarter compared to the corresponding quarter last year. Yet, on a price-to-sales basis, the stock's valuation remains sky-high at 12.6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.67%) 的股票處於一個棘手的境地。分析師預計下個季度的收益將比去年同期下降近 30%。然而，從市銷率來看，該股票的估值仍然高達 12.6。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>, another electric car stock, trades at just 2.9 times sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>，另一家電動車股票，僅以 2.9 倍的銷售額交易。</p>
</div><p>Tesla stock seems priced for big growth despite tepid profitability growth ahead. But there's a risk factor detailed below that could put an even bigger dent in Tesla's growth trajectory for years to come. Every investor needs to monitor this one thing carefully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管未來的盈利增長乏力，特斯拉股票似乎仍然被定價為大幅增長。但下面詳細説明的風險因素可能會在未來幾年對特斯拉的增長軌跡造成更大的打擊。每位投資者都需要仔細監控這一點。</p>
</div><h2>This one risk factor could punish Tesla stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這個風險因素可能會懲罰特斯拉股票</h2>
</div><p>Right now, more than 90% of Tesla's vehicles sales stem from just two models: the Model 3 and Model Y. Both have starting base prices of less than $50,000. Seeing as the majority of Americans are looking to spend less than $50,000 on their next vehicle purchase, according to a 2024 study by AutoPacific, Tesla is in a solid place to attract the tens of millions of budget buyers in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，特斯拉超過 90% 的汽車銷售來自兩款車型：Model 3 和 Model Y。兩者的起售價均低於 50,000 美元。根據 2024 年 AutoPacific 的一項研究，大多數美國人希望在下一次購車時花費少於 50,000 美元，因此特斯拉在吸引數千萬預算買家方面處於有利位置。</p>
</div><p>To make Teslas even more affordable, buyers have long been able to qualify for federal tax credits that can total up to $7,500. Both the Model 3 and Model Y qualify for these tax credits. Even some of Tesla's pricier models, like the entry-level Cybertruck, qualify. The result is a lower effective purchase price for consumers, and thus more demand for Tesla's products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了讓特斯拉更加實惠，買家長期以來可以申請聯邦税收抵免，最高可達 7,500 美元。Model 3 和 Model Y 均符合這些税收抵免。甚至一些特斯拉的高價車型，如入門級 Cybertruck，也符合條件。結果是消費者的有效購買價格降低，從而對特斯拉的產品需求增加。</p>
</div><p>There's just one problem: Federal tax credits may be on the way out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題在於：聯邦税收抵免可能即將取消。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI3NzYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ1ODIzNDc1OS0xMjAxeDY5OS1kMmMwNTE2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822776%2Fgettyimages-1458234759-1201x699-d2c0516.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump's new bill calls for the immediate elimination of federal EV tax incentives. What would happen to Tesla's sales if this were to happen? More than half of all EV buyers say that tax credits were a deciding factor in their purchase. When EV incentives abruptly ended in Germany in 2023, EV sales fell by more than 16% over the next six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普總統的新法案要求立即取消聯邦電動車税收激勵。如果這發生，特斯拉的銷售會怎樣？超過一半的電動車買家表示，税收抵免是他們購買的決定性因素。當 2023 年德國的電動車激勵措施突然結束時，電動車銷售在接下來的六個月內下降了超過 16%。</p>
</div><p>If tax credits are eliminated in the U.S., expect Tesla's sales and earnings to drop in response.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美國取消税收抵免，預計特斯拉的銷售和收益將會下降。</p>
</div>

1 Thing Every Tesla Investor Needs to Watch Right Now

- 特斯拉股票面臨盈利下滑近 30% 的預期。  
- 超過 90% 的特斯拉銷量來自 Model 3 和 Model Y，價格低於 50,000 美元。  
- 如果聯邦税收抵免被取消，特斯拉銷量和盈利可能會大幅下降。  

每位特斯拉投資者當前需要密切關注的一件事