<p>Wayne Cole 對歐洲和全球市場的前景進行展望。</p><p>當美國和加拿大之間的貿易談判恢復的消息傳出時，亞洲市場已經開始了風險偏好的新一週，加拿大總理卡尼同意取消特朗普要求的數字税。這項努力的新截止日期是 7 月 21 日，延長了特朗普原定的 7 月 9 日日期。</p><p>後者似乎也將延長其他談判，財政部長貝森特上週暗示，他們可能會在 9 月 1 日的勞動節假期之前完成。</p><p>華爾街期貨上漲約 0.4%，創下歷史新高，投資者在新季度湧入大型股，而歐洲和德國的股票期貨也上漲約 0.3%。大多數亞洲市場也處於上漲狀態，受益於中東停火的持續以及油價的進一步下跌。</p><p>投資者對一項正在參議院緩慢推進的巨大美國減税和支出法案的進展保持警惕，跡象表明它可能無法在特朗普偏好的 7 月 4 日截止日期之前通過。為了拖延時間，民主黨人讓書記員逐行朗讀這份 940 頁的法案，可能使他們成為唯一知道法案內容的人。</p><p>國會預算辦公室估計，該法案將在十年內使國家債務增加 3.3 萬億美元，這進一步考驗了外國對美國國債的需求，並對美國例外主義的事業造成了又一次打擊。</p><p>這一影響在美元上表現得尤為明顯，上週歐元上漲了 1.7%。資本經濟學的分析師詹姆斯·瑞利指出，美元在今年的這一階段下跌幅度超過了自 1973 年美國轉向自由浮動匯率以來的任何一年。</p><p>這種下滑必然迫使外國投資者對其美元敞口進行對沖，這在貨幣的熊市循環中進一步加劇了拋售。</p><p>投資者對美聯儲政策放鬆的預期也沒有得到改善，預計今年剩餘時間將降息 65 個基點。儘管 7 月的降息仍然是一個小概率事件，但如果週四的就業報告出現意外下滑，這種情況可能會改變。特別是，如果失業率上升超過 4.3%，將達到自 2021 年底以來未見的水平，肯定會引起美聯儲的警覺。</p><p>可能影響週一市場的關鍵發展：</p><ul><li>歐洲中央銀行論壇在葡萄牙辛特拉開始</li><li>德國、意大利的消費者物價指數數據</li><li>美聯儲的博斯蒂克和古爾斯比發言</li></ul><p>自由下跌的美元</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a1605a93abe4fbfefc482fe62a035b33?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="962" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a1605a93abe4fbfefc482fe62a035b33"/></figure><p>美國非農就業人數增長預計在 6 月放緩</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/2bb3b0d46123616108b66e647325e70f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="966" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/2bb3b0d46123616108b66e647325e70f"/></figure><p>（編輯：Jacqueline Wong）</p>

<p>美國與加拿大的貿易談判重新啓動，提振了市場情緒。華爾街期貨上漲 0.4%，歐洲股市上漲 0.3%。投資者對可能使國家債務增加 3.3 萬億美元的美國減税法案持謹慎態度。美元承壓，歐元上週上漲 1.7%。對美聯儲政策放鬆的預期增加，7 月可能的行動取決於即將發佈的就業數據。市場的主要影響因素包括歐洲央行論壇和消費者物價指數數據發佈</p>

<p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wayne Cole 對歐洲和全球市場的前景進行展望。</p>
</div><p>It was already a risk-on start to the week in Asia when news broke trade talks between the United States and Canada were back on after Prime Minister Carney agreed to rescind a digital tax as demanded by President Trump. The new deadline for this effort is July 21, extending Trump’s original July 9 date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當美國和加拿大之間的貿易談判恢復的消息傳出時，亞洲市場已經開始了風險偏好的新一週，加拿大總理卡尼同意取消特朗普要求的數字税。這項努力的新截止日期是 7 月 21 日，延長了特朗普原定的 7 月 9 日日期。</p>
</div><p>The latter looks like being extended for other talks as well, with Treasury Secretary Bessent last week suggesting they might be done by the September 1 Labor Day holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>後者似乎也將延長其他談判，財政部長貝森特上週暗示，他們可能會在 9 月 1 日的勞動節假期之前完成。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street futures are up around 0.4% at record highs as investors pile into mega caps for the new quarter, while European and German stock futures firmed around 0.3%. Most Asian markets are also in the black, helped by a further decline in oil prices as the Mideast ceasefire holds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街期貨上漲約 0.4%，創下歷史新高，投資者在新季度湧入大型股，而歐洲和德國的股票期貨也上漲約 0.3%。大多數亞洲市場也處於上漲狀態，受益於中東停火的持續以及油價的進一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>Investors are keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by Trump’s preferred July 4 deadline. Stalling for time, the Democrats are making clerks read out every line in the 940-page bill, likely making them the only ones who know what’s in it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對一項正在參議院緩慢推進的巨大美國減税和支出法案的進展保持警惕，跡象表明它可能無法在特朗普偏好的 7 月 4 日截止日期之前通過。為了拖延時間，民主黨人讓書記員逐行朗讀這份 940 頁的法案，可能使他們成為唯一知道法案內容的人。</p>
</div><p>The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add $3.3 trillion to the nation’s debt over a decade, a further test of foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries and another blow to the cause of U.S. exceptionalism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國會預算辦公室估計，該法案將在十年內使國家債務增加 3.3 萬億美元，這進一步考驗了外國對美國國債的需求，並對美國例外主義的事業造成了又一次打擊。</p>
</div><p>The impact has been most evident in the dollar, with the euro clocking gains of 1.7% last week. James Reilly, an analyst at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the U.S. moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一影響在美元上表現得尤為明顯，上週歐元上漲了 1.7%。資本經濟學的分析師詹姆斯·瑞利指出，美元在今年的這一階段下跌幅度超過了自 1973 年美國轉向自由浮動匯率以來的任何一年。</p>
</div><p>That slide must be pressuring foreign investors to hedge their dollar exposure, which creates yet more selling in a bearish cycle for the currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種下滑必然迫使外國投資者對其美元敞口進行對沖，這在貨幣的熊市循環中進一步加劇了拋售。</p>
</div><p>Neither has it been helped by investors ratcheting up expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing to 65 basis points for the rest of the year. A July move is still an outside chance, though that might change if the payrolls report on Thursday springs a downside surprise. In particular, a rise in the jobless rate above 4.3% would take it to levels not seen since late 2021 and would surely ring alarm bells at the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對美聯儲政策放鬆的預期也沒有得到改善，預計今年剩餘時間將降息 65 個基點。儘管 7 月的降息仍然是一個小概率事件，但如果週四的就業報告出現意外下滑，這種情況可能會改變。特別是，如果失業率上升超過 4.3%，將達到自 2021 年底以來未見的水平，肯定會引起美聯儲的警覺。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影響週一市場的關鍵發展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, begins</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>歐洲中央銀行論壇在葡萄牙辛特拉開始</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>German, Italian CPI data</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>德國、意大利的消費者物價指數數據</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee speak</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美聯儲的博斯蒂克和古爾斯比發言</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Free-falling dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自由下跌的美元</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3I2xY5D" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3I2xY5D"/></p>
<p>U.S. non-farm payrolls growth set to slow in June</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國非農就業人數增長預計在 6 月放緩</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4lpDf5I" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4lpDf5I"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（編輯：Jacqueline Wong）</p>
</div>

Risk flows as trade talks unclog

- 美國與加拿大的貿易談判重啓，新的截止日期為 7 月 21 日。  
- 投資者關注美國税收削減法案，預計將增加 3.3 萬億美元債務。  
- 美元持續下跌，市場對美聯儲政策寬鬆預期上升。  

貿易談判解堵後風險流動