<p>在 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 爭奪全球市值最大公司的地位時，另一位競爭者正在暗中潛伏：<strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN 2.66%）。</p>
<p>Amazon 是一個黑馬，有潛力在幾年內成為全球最大公司，因為它有多個部門以令人印象深刻的速度增長，並且產生了卓越的利潤。但它是否有足夠的動力在 2030 年前超越當前的領導者？讓我們來看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI2ODUvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1sYXB0b3AtYXQtYS1kZXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI2ODUvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1sYXB0b3AtYXQtYS1kZXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Amazon 的增長來自兩個業務部門</h2>
<p>Amazon 不僅僅是你在購物時使用的電子商務平台。在線銷售產品以及將其送到你家門口涉及很多方面，但這些方面並沒有讓我對這隻股票感到興奮。</p>
<p>相反，我最感興趣的是公司的廣告和雲計算部門。五年前，它的廣告業務幾乎不存在。現在，它已經成長為第四大部門，僅次於在線商店、第三方賣家服務和亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）。它也是增長最快的部門，第一季度的收入增長了 18%。</p>
<p>公司擁有一些最有價值的消費者數據，比如關於購物習慣的直接信息。這使得它的廣告數據極具威力，這也是管理層明智地將其貨幣化的原因。</p>
<p>這個部門如此重要的另一個原因是其提高的利潤率。公司並沒有細分各個業務的利潤率，廣告業務被歸入亞馬遜的北美和國際商業部門。但通過研究以廣告為重點的企業，如 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，可以清楚地看出，這個部門的運營利潤率可能非常高。</p>
<p>這對亞馬遜的未來至關重要，因為高利潤率部門的快速增長將使利潤迅速增加。</p>
<p>同樣的動態也發生在 AWS 的雲計算部門，該部門受益於兩個主要趨勢：從本地解決方案向基於雲的解決方案的普遍遷移，以及對 AI 工作負載的日益採用。</p>
<p>這兩個趨勢為 AWS 創造了巨大的增長催化劑，這也是它在第一季度實現 17% 穩健增長的原因。幸運的是，對於投資者來説，亞馬遜會細分其利潤率。在第一季度，AWS 的運營利潤率達到了令人印象深刻的 39%。儘管它佔整體收入的 19%，但卻貢獻了公司總運營利潤的 63%。</p>
<p>只要 AWS 繼續實現快速增長，亞馬遜的利潤將比整體收入增長得更快，這也是我們在過去幾年中看到的股票表現，儘管這一趨勢開始有所放緩。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b033411fd3c42b9ad2d75970a554ff07.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b033411fd3c42b9ad2d75970a554ff07.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 運營收入（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts；同比 = 年同比。</p>
<p>儘管其運營利潤增長不如以前那麼迅速，但仍在提供健康的增長。但這是否足以在 2030 年前將其推向頂峯？</p>
<h2>Amazon 將很難追趕 Nvidia</h2>
<p>在接下來的五年裏，Amazon 不太可能看到與當前情況不同的快速增長催化劑，因此高個位數的收入增長和約 20% 的運營利潤增長是投資者合理的預期。</p>
<p>而且該股票的估值與 Microsoft 和 Nvidia 大致相同，因此在未來幾年內，它也沒有理由看到其市盈率的提升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7ab6a83df73941c356e89d40d4677791.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7ab6a83df73941c356e89d40d4677791.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來自 YCharts；市盈率 = 市價與收益之比。</p>
<p>因此，我認為 Amazon 的 20% 左右的運營利潤增長將無法使其超越 Nvidia，後者的增長速度顯著更快。然而，這可能使 Amazon 趕上 Microsoft，後者的增長在低雙位數。</p>
<p>無論如何，我相信 Amazon 是一個優秀的投資，它可能在未來五年內提供超越市場的回報，得益於其穩健的利潤增長。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>亞馬遜正在成為微軟和英偉達在 2030 年成為市值最大公司的潛在競爭者。其增長主要得益於廣告和雲計算部門的快速擴張，這些部門對利潤的貢獻顯著。儘管亞馬遜的營業利潤增長預計將達到約 20%，但可能難以超越英偉達更快的增長速度，但有可能趕上微軟。總體而言，亞馬遜被視為一個強勁的投資機會，未來幾年有望實現超越市場的回報</p>

<p>While <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong> are duking it out to see which company will maintain its position as the largest in the world by market cap, another competitor is lurking in the background: <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 2.66%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 爭奪全球市值最大公司的地位時，另一位競爭者正在暗中潛伏：<strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN 2.66%）。</p>
</div><p>Amazon is a dark horse pick to become the largest company in the world in a few years, because it has several divisions that are growing at an impressive rate while producing stellar profits. But does it have enough juice to overtake the current leaders by 2030? Let's take a look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amazon 是一個黑馬，有潛力在幾年內成為全球最大公司，因為它有多個部門以令人印象深刻的速度增長，並且產生了卓越的利潤。但它是否有足夠的動力在 2030 年前超越當前的領導者？讓我們來看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI2ODUvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1sYXB0b3AtYXQtYS1kZXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822685%2Fperson-looking-at-a-laptop-at-a-desk.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's growth comes from two business units</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Amazon 的增長來自兩個業務部門</h2>
</div><p>Amazon is more than just the e-commerce platform you interact with when shopping. There is a lot that goes into selling products online, as well as delivering them to your doorstep, but none of those aspects excite me about the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amazon 不僅僅是你在購物時使用的電子商務平台。在線銷售產品以及將其送到你家門口涉及很多方面，但這些方面並沒有讓我對這隻股票感到興奮。</p>
</div><p>Instead, I'm most interested in the company's advertising and cloud computing segments. Its advertising wing was nearly nonexistent five years ago. Now, it has grown into its fourth-largest segment, behind online stores, third-party seller services, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It's also the fastest-growing segment, with revenue rising 18% in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，我最感興趣的是公司的廣告和雲計算部門。五年前，它的廣告業務幾乎不存在。現在，它已經成長為第四大部門，僅次於在線商店、第三方賣家服務和亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）。它也是增長最快的部門，第一季度的收入增長了 18%。</p>
</div><p>The company has some of the most valuable consumer data available, like direct information about shopping habits. This makes its ad data incredibly powerful, which is why management was smart to monetize it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司擁有一些最有價值的消費者數據，比如關於購物習慣的直接信息。這使得它的廣告數據極具威力，這也是管理層明智地將其貨幣化的原因。</p>
</div><p>Another reason this segment is so important is its increased margins. The company doesn't break down the margins of its individual operations, and advertising gets grouped into Amazon's North American and International commerce segments. But from examining advertising-focused businesses like <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, it's clear that this division likely has an incredibly high operating margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個部門如此重要的另一個原因是其提高的利潤率。公司並沒有細分各個業務的利潤率，廣告業務被歸入亞馬遜的北美和國際商業部門。但通過研究以廣告為重點的企業，如 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，可以清楚地看出，這個部門的運營利潤率可能非常高。</p>
</div><p>This is crucial for Amazon's future because the faster growth of higher-margin segments will allow profits to increase rapidly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對亞馬遜的未來至關重要，因為高利潤率部門的快速增長將使利潤迅速增加。</p>
</div><p>This same dynamic is occurring in AWS' cloud computing segment, which is benefiting from two major trends: a general migration from on-premises to cloud-based solutions and the increasing adoption of AI workloads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣的動態也發生在 AWS 的雲計算部門，該部門受益於兩個主要趨勢：從本地解決方案向基於雲的解決方案的普遍遷移，以及對 AI 工作負載的日益採用。</p>
</div><p>Both of these create huge growth catalysts for AWS and are why it produced solid 17% growth in the first quarter. Fortunately for investors, Amazon breaks out its margins. In the first quarter, AWS' operating margin was an impressive 39%. Although it accounted for 19% of overall revenue, it contributed 63% of the company's total operating profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這兩個趨勢為 AWS 創造了巨大的增長催化劑，這也是它在第一季度實現 17% 穩健增長的原因。幸運的是，對於投資者來説，亞馬遜會細分其利潤率。在第一季度，AWS 的運營利潤率達到了令人印象深刻的 39%。儘管它佔整體收入的 19%，但卻貢獻了公司總運營利潤的 63%。</p>
</div><p>As long as AWS continues to deliver rapid growth, Amazon's profits will rise much faster than its overall revenue, which is what we've seen play out over the past few years with the stock, although that trend is starting to slow somewhat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要 AWS 繼續實現快速增長，亞馬遜的利潤將比整體收入增長得更快，這也是我們在過去幾年中看到的股票表現，儘管這一趨勢開始有所放緩。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b033411fd3c42b9ad2d75970a554ff07.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b033411fd3c42b9ad2d75970a554ff07.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts; YoY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 運營收入（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts；同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>Although its operating profit growth isn't as rapid as it once was, it's still delivering a healthy amount of growth. But is that enough to propel it to the top spot by 2030?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管其運營利潤增長不如以前那麼迅速，但仍在提供健康的增長。但這是否足以在 2030 年前將其推向頂峯？</p>
</div><h2>Amazon will have a tough time catching Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Amazon 將很難追趕 Nvidia</h2>
</div><p>It's unlikely that Amazon will see a rapid growth catalyst over the next five years different from what's currently happening, so the high-single-digit revenue growth and 20% or so increase in operating profit are reasonable expectations for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下來的五年裏，Amazon 不太可能看到與當前情況不同的快速增長催化劑，因此高個位數的收入增長和約 20% 的運營利潤增長是投資者合理的預期。</p>
</div><p>And the stock is valued around the same level as Microsoft and Nvidia, so it doesn't have an argument for seeing its price-to-forward-earnings multiple increase over the next few years, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且該股票的估值與 Microsoft 和 Nvidia 大致相同，因此在未來幾年內，它也沒有理由看到其市盈率的提升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7ab6a83df73941c356e89d40d4677791.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7ab6a83df73941c356e89d40d4677791.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts; PE = price to earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來自 YCharts；市盈率 = 市價與收益之比。</p>
</div><p>As a result, I don't think Amazon's 20% or so operating profit growth will enable it to surpass Nvidia, which is rising at a significantly faster rate. However, it could allow Amazon to catch Microsoft, which is growing by the low double digits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我認為 Amazon 的 20% 左右的運營利潤增長將無法使其超越 Nvidia，後者的增長速度顯著更快。然而，這可能使 Amazon 趕上 Microsoft，後者的增長在低雙位數。</p>
</div><p>Regardless, I believe Amazon is an excellent investment, and it will likely deliver market-beating returns over the next five years, driven by its solid profit growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論如何，我相信 Amazon 是一個優秀的投資，它可能在未來五年內提供超越市場的回報，得益於其穩健的利潤增長。</p>
</div>

Will This "Magnificent Seven" Stock Overtake Microsoft and Nvidia As the Largest Company in the World By 2030?

- 亞馬遜在廣告和雲計算領域實現快速增長，成為潛在的市場領導者。  
- 廣告部門已成為亞馬遜第四大業務，第一季度收入增長 18%。  
- AWS 雲計算部門第一季度運營利潤率達 39%，推動整體利潤快速增長。  

這隻被稱為 “七大奇蹟” 的股票能否在 2030 年超越微軟和英偉達，成為全球最大的公司？