<p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT -1.02%) 的股價今年上漲了 18%（截至 6 月 27 日的回報），這使得該股票達到了新的歷史高點。它一直是一個傳統上安全的投資選擇，但如今的價格確實昂貴，交易價格約為其過去收益的 38 倍。</p>
<p>該業務有許多增長機會，並且在人工智能（AI）領域扮演了重要角色，這讓投資者對其長期前景持樂觀態度。但考慮到其高估值，您是否應該考慮在股價下跌時再將該股票納入您的投資組合？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMxMzIvaW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1zdG9ja3Mtb24tYS10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMxMzIvaW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1zdG9ja3Mtb24tYS10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>微軟的股票交易的收益倍數高於其 10 年平均水平</h2>
<p>進入本週交易時，微軟的估值達到了創紀錄的水平，市值為 3.7 萬億美元。它是目前市場上估值最高的股票之一，僅次於 <strong>英偉達</strong>。但市值本身並不能告訴投資者一隻股票是否被高估。</p>
<p>查看股票的市盈率（P/E）倍數可以有效地評估其相對價值。您可以將其與其他股票進行比較，甚至查看其歷史平均水平。根據其 10 年平均市盈率，微軟目前確實看起來是一隻昂貴的股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f4837958eb2b2f0ce456fb6d424c6d02.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f4837958eb2b2f0ce456fb6d424c6d02.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>根據上述數據，該股票看起來並不是極其昂貴，但投資者似乎確實在為該業務支付更高的溢價。如果一家企業表現特別好並且增長速度高於正常水平，或者它有一個巨大的增長催化劑——例如 AI，那麼更高的市盈率倍數是可以理解的。</p>
<h2>微軟的增長率高於正常水平</h2>
<p>近年來，微軟通過收購視頻遊戲公司動視暴雪和在 AI 領域的重磅投資實現了擴張。目前，其 AI 業務的年收入達到了 130 億美元，這對於一家過去 12 個月銷售額達到 2700 億美元的科技公司來説是一個適度的數字。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f106a3ecccca9b86a013f276bbd1487.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f106a3ecccca9b86a013f276bbd1487.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>如果對 AI 驅動的個人電腦的需求增加，仍然有可能實現更多的增長。不幸的是，隨着消費者在動盪的經濟環境中縮減開支，可能需要一些時間才能對其運營產生顯著影響。</p>
<h2>您今天應該購買微軟股票嗎？</h2>
<p>微軟是一個不錯的長期投資，但我今天不會購買。在如此高的估值下，我認為它的增長不足以證明如此高的溢價，尤其是當有許多更便宜的 AI 股票可供選擇時；目前沒有足夠令人信服的理由投資微軟。</p>
<p>我會將該股票列入觀察名單，但我不會以目前的估值購買。安全邊際不大，如果科技支出放緩，尤其是如果公司擔心經濟衰退，那麼該股票可能會有相當大的下跌空間。</p>

微軟

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微軟每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微軟每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微軟的股票今年上漲了 18%，達到了歷史新高，但目前的市盈率為 38，超過了其 10 年的平均水平。儘管公司在人工智能方面具有增長潛力，但考慮到當前的經濟環境，其估值可能並不合理。分析師建議在投資之前等待價格回調，因為在人工智能領域還有更便宜的替代品，並且存在科技支出放緩的潛在風險</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -1.02%) are up 18% this year (returns as of June 27), and that has pushed the stock to a new all-time high. It's been a traditionally safe stock to own, but it's definitely expensive these days, trading at around 38 times its trailing earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT -1.02%) 的股價今年上漲了 18%（截至 6 月 27 日的回報），這使得該股票達到了新的歷史高點。它一直是一個傳統上安全的投資選擇，但如今的價格確實昂貴，交易價格約為其過去收益的 38 倍。</p>
</div><p>The business has many growth opportunities and has been a big player in artificial intelligence (AI), which has investors bullish on its long-term future. But given its high valuation, should you consider waiting for a dip in price before adding the stock to your portfolio?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該業務有許多增長機會，並且在人工智能（AI）領域扮演了重要角色，這讓投資者對其長期前景持樂觀態度。但考慮到其高估值，您是否應該考慮在股價下跌時再將該股票納入您的投資組合？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMxMzIvaW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1zdG9ja3Mtb24tYS10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823132%2Finvestor-looking-at-stocks-on-a-tablet.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft's stock is trading at a higher earnings multiple than its 10-year average</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟的股票交易的收益倍數高於其 10 年平均水平</h2>
</div><p>Entering trading this week, Microsoft's valuation was at record levels, with a market cap of $3.7 trillion. It's one of the most highly valued stocks on the market today, trailing only <strong>Nvidia</strong>. But market cap alone doesn't tell investors if a stock is overpriced or not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>進入本週交易時，微軟的估值達到了創紀錄的水平，市值為 3.7 萬億美元。它是目前市場上估值最高的股票之一，僅次於 <strong>英偉達</strong>。但市值本身並不能告訴投資者一隻股票是否被高估。</p>
</div><p>Looking at a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple can be an effective way to gauge its relative value. You can compare it to other stocks or even look at its historical average. And based on its 10-year average P/E, Microsoft does indeed look like an expensive stock right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看股票的市盈率（P/E）倍數可以有效地評估其相對價值。您可以將其與其他股票進行比較，甚至查看其歷史平均水平。根據其 10 年平均市盈率，微軟目前確實看起來是一隻昂貴的股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f4837958eb2b2f0ce456fb6d424c6d02.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f4837958eb2b2f0ce456fb6d424c6d02.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The stock doesn't look wildly expensive based on the above figure, but investors do appear to be paying a higher premium for the business these days. A higher P/E multiple can be justifiable if a business is performing particularly well and growing at a higher rate than normal, or if it has a big growth catalyst -- such as AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據上述數據，該股票看起來並不是極其昂貴，但投資者似乎確實在為該業務支付更高的溢價。如果一家企業表現特別好並且增長速度高於正常水平，或者它有一個巨大的增長催化劑——例如 AI，那麼更高的市盈率倍數是可以理解的。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft's growth rate has been higher than normal</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟的增長率高於正常水平</h2>
</div><p>In recent years, Microsoft has expanded through its acquisition of video gaming company Activision-Blizzard and its heavy investments in AI. Currently, its AI business is generating revenue at an annual run rate of $13 billion, which is a modest amount for a tech company whose sales over the trailing 12 months have totaled $270 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年來，微軟通過收購視頻遊戲公司動視暴雪和在 AI 領域的重磅投資實現了擴張。目前，其 AI 業務的年收入達到了 130 億美元，這對於一家過去 12 個月銷售額達到 2700 億美元的科技公司來説是一個適度的數字。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f106a3ecccca9b86a013f276bbd1487.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f106a3ecccca9b86a013f276bbd1487.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>There's still potentially much more growth ahead if demand for AI-powered PCs picks up. Unfortunately, with consumers scaling back on spending amid turbulent economic conditions, it may take some time before that may have any sizable impact on its operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果對 AI 驅動的個人電腦的需求增加，仍然有可能實現更多的增長。不幸的是，隨着消費者在動盪的經濟環境中縮減開支，可能需要一些時間才能對其運營產生顯著影響。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Microsoft stock today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>您今天應該購買微軟股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft is a good long-term investment, but I wouldn't buy it today. At such a high valuation, I don't think it's generating nearly enough growth to justify such a high premium, especially when there are many cheaper AI stocks to choose from; there's not nearly a compelling enough reason to invest in Microsoft right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟是一個不錯的長期投資，但我今天不會購買。在如此高的估值下，我認為它的增長不足以證明如此高的溢價，尤其是當有許多更便宜的 AI 股票可供選擇時；目前沒有足夠令人信服的理由投資微軟。</p>
</div><p>I'd put the stock on a watch list, but I wouldn't buy it at its current valuation. There's not much margin of safety and if there's a slowdown in tech spending, especially if companies worry about an economic downturn, then there could be considerable room for the stock to fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我會將該股票列入觀察名單，但我不會以目前的估值購買。安全邊際不大，如果科技支出放緩，尤其是如果公司擔心經濟衰退，那麼該股票可能會有相當大的下跌空間。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Microsoft Stock Now or Wait for a Dip?

- 微軟股票今年上漲 18%，市值達 3.7 萬億美元，創歷史新高。  
- 當前市盈率約為 38 倍，高於其 10 年平均水平，顯示出高估值。  
- 儘管長期前景看好，但在高估值下，建議投資者觀望。  

現在是否應該購買微軟股票，還是等待股價下跌後再買入？