<p>最佳的煙花表演始於一種不祥的寂靜，觀眾安靜，天空昏暗，期待感濃厚。然後，夜空瞬間變得明亮。市場有時也會如此。</p>
<p>經過數週的橫盤整理，一系列鏈上和宏觀信號的突然聚集可以點燃資產的火花，而這正是 <strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC 0.66%）今天所處的狀態。五個獨立的需求指標同時傾向於看漲。讓我們分析每一個指標，看看它們如何與長期持有這款加密貨幣的理論相結合。</p>
<h2>這五個綠燈亮起了</h2>
<p>首先，資金正通過交易所交易基金（ETF）渠道湧入比特幣。</p>
<p>數字資產產品剛剛迎來了連續第十週的資金流入，超過 11 億美元直接流入比特幣投資組合。這是從 5 月已經強勁的步伐中加速而來，使得今年迄今的資金流入超過 150 億美元，創下新紀錄。新資本至關重要，因為每個 ETF 發行者必須前往現貨市場購買並將幣種從流通中取出。</p>
<p>比特幣的第二個突破信號是網絡本身變得昂貴。順便提一下，大多數投資者通常完全忽視這些數據，而這些數據通常包含一些可操作的信息。</p>
<p>本週網絡的每日費用收入飆升至 7890 萬美元，為 3 月以來的最高水平，並且超過了一個月以來每日費用收入超過 5000 萬美元的總和。</p>
<p>比特幣礦工喜歡上漲的費用，因為這些費用增加了他們的利潤，並激勵他們對挖礦硬件進行更多的資本投資，以保持挖礦過程的進行。投資者也應該喜歡這些費用，因為費用只有在流量繁忙時才會激增。這意味着這是一個明確的信號，表明人們願意支付更多以進入下一個區塊。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5MzQvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWJpdGNvaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5MzQvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWJpdGNvaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>第三個看漲因素是穩定幣供應再次上升。與美元掛鈎的穩定幣的總市值剛剛超過 2510 億美元，在過去 30 天內上漲了 2.5%。</p>
<p>雖然大多數投資者並不將穩定幣的交易量與比特幣直接關聯，但不可否認的是，穩定幣是加密貨幣的乾粉。因此，當這筆資金在增長時，至少有一部分資本最終會追逐流動性最深的幣種以獲取收益，而比特幣仍然是加密領域中流動性最深的池子。</p>
<p>第四，全球廣義貨幣供應在去年收縮後開始回升。這一點很重要，因為該幣種與貨幣供應增長的相關性比其他任何因素都要緊密。換句話説，當由於貨幣供應的增加而導致流動性潮水上漲時，比特幣的表現最為突出。</p>
<p>最後，山寨幣市場已經甦醒，聰明的山寨幣投資者通常會將他們的利潤重新投入比特幣，而不是保留高度波動的代幣。但在此之前，資本流入較小代幣通常標誌着牛市的中期階段。這是一個信號，表明資本正在變得自信並尋求槓桿，就像現在發生的情況一樣。</p>
<p>歷史上，一旦輪換開始，比特幣就會隨之進行主導性移動以重新確立領導地位，這可能是接下來要發生的事情。</p>
<h2>請記住，這裏仍然存在逆風</h2>
<p>在 2020 年 10 月和 2024 年 1 月這兩次所有五個指標一致時，比特幣在六個月內翻了一番。這並不保證會重演，即使這可能足以讓投資者現在有信心地購買該幣。</p>
<p>有兩個特別的陰雲可能會給派對潑冷水。</p>
<p>美國聯邦儲備可能不會像許多投資者預期的那樣迅速降息，特別是如果關税驅動的通脹使消費者價格保持高位。如果降息預期再次落空，流動性增長可能會暫停。這將意味着比特幣可能會陷入低迷，而不是爆發。</p>
<p>與此同時，華盛頓的加密貨幣規則手冊仍在每週不斷完善，關於該行業最終監管機構的重大不確定性依然存在。穩定幣的監管正在推進，但新的要求可能會減緩供應增長，如果發行者需要新的許可證或資本緩衝來參與。</p>
<h2>為潛在突破做好準備</h2>
<p>假設這五個信號持續良好，監管事務和貨幣政策不會妨礙，比特幣在接下來的幾個季度突破其之前的歷史高點的幾率看起來非常強。</p>
<p>這裏一個合理的操作方案是逐步建立或增加頭寸，採用定投（DCA）策略。保留一些資本以便在任何回調時能夠採取行動，而不做出情緒化的決策。並確保你的頭寸規模不會顛覆你的財務目標，即使比特幣下跌 40% 或更多，而這在加密貨幣中是完全可能的。</p>
<p>對於長期投資者來説，這是一個有條不紊地獲取敞口並保持警惕的時刻，而不是追逐炒作。關鍵是要做好準備，並耐心等待讓幣種為你隨着時間的推移而增長。</p>

CRCL

<p>五個指標暗示比特幣可能出現突破：1）比特幣 ETF 的資金流入創紀錄，今年超過 150 億美元。2）比特幣網絡的每日手續費收入上升，表明流量增加。3）穩定幣供應量增長，通常會導致對比特幣的投資。4）全球貨幣供應量的上升與比特幣的表現相關。5）山寨幣市場的活動增加，通常在比特幣上漲之前。然而，潛在的阻力包括美國聯邦儲備政策的不確定性和不斷變化的加密貨幣監管。建議投資者考慮採用定投策略以獲得敞口</p>

<p>The best fireworks shows start with an ominous hush, when the crowd is quiet, the sky dark, and anticipation thick. Then, all at once, the night goes bright. Markets sometimes do the same thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最佳的煙花表演始於一種不祥的寂靜，觀眾安靜，天空昏暗，期待感濃厚。然後，夜空瞬間變得明亮。市場有時也會如此。</p>
</div><p>After weeks of sideways chop, a sudden cluster of on-chain and macro signals can light the fuse under an asset, which is exactly where <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.66%) sits today. Five independent gauges of demand are all tilting bullish at once. Let's analyze each one to see how they mesh with the long-term thesis for buying and holding this crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經過數週的橫盤整理，一系列鏈上和宏觀信號的突然聚集可以點燃資產的火花，而這正是 <strong>比特幣</strong>（BTC 0.66%）今天所處的狀態。五個獨立的需求指標同時傾向於看漲。讓我們分析每一個指標，看看它們如何與長期持有這款加密貨幣的理論相結合。</p>
</div><h2>These five green lights are on</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這五個綠燈亮起了</h2>
</div><p>First, money is pouring into Bitcoin through the exchange-traded fund (ETF) pipeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，資金正通過交易所交易基金（ETF）渠道湧入比特幣。</p>
</div><p>Digital-asset products just booked their 10th straight week of inflows, pulling more than $1.1 billion straight into Bitcoin portfolios. That is an acceleration from May's already-robust pace, and pushes the flows this year so far to more than $15 billion, a new record. Fresh capital matters because every ETF issuer must go to the spot market to buy and take coins out of circulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數字資產產品剛剛迎來了連續第十週的資金流入，超過 11 億美元直接流入比特幣投資組合。這是從 5 月已經強勁的步伐中加速而來，使得今年迄今的資金流入超過 150 億美元，創下新紀錄。新資本至關重要，因為每個 ETF 發行者必須前往現貨市場購買並將幣種從流通中取出。</p>
</div><p>The second breakout signal for Bitcoin is that the network itself is getting pricey. As an aside, most investors usually ignore this data entirely, and it usually contains some actionable information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的第二個突破信號是網絡本身變得昂貴。順便提一下，大多數投資者通常完全忽視這些數據，而這些數據通常包含一些可操作的信息。</p>
</div><p>Daily fee revenue on the network popped to $78.9 million this week, the highest tally since March, and topping off more than a full month of fee revenue exceeding $50 million daily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週網絡的每日費用收入飆升至 7890 萬美元，為 3 月以來的最高水平，並且超過了一個月以來每日費用收入超過 5000 萬美元的總和。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin miners love rising fees because those fees fatten their margins and incentivize them to make more capital investments into mining hardware to keep the mining process going. Investors should love them too, because fees spike only when traffic is heavy. This means it's a blunt sign that people are willing to pay up to get into the next block.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣礦工喜歡上漲的費用，因為這些費用增加了他們的利潤，並激勵他們對挖礦硬件進行更多的資本投資，以保持挖礦過程的進行。投資者也應該喜歡這些費用，因為費用只有在流量繁忙時才會激增。這意味着這是一個明確的信號，表明人們願意支付更多以進入下一個區塊。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5MzQvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWJpdGNvaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822934%2Fstock-market-bitcoin.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The third bullish factor is that stablecoin supply is grinding higher again. The aggregate market cap of dollar-pegged stablecoins sits just above $251 billion, up 2.5% during the past 30 days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三個看漲因素是穩定幣供應再次上升。與美元掛鈎的穩定幣的總市值剛剛超過 2510 億美元，在過去 30 天內上漲了 2.5%。</p>
</div><p>While most investors don't associate stablecoin volume with Bitcoin specifically, it's undeniable that stablecoins are the dry powder of crypto. So when the pile is growing, at least some of the capital ends up chasing coins with the deepest liquidity to capture a yield, and Bitcoin is still the deepest pool in the crypto sector by far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然大多數投資者並不將穩定幣的交易量與比特幣直接關聯，但不可否認的是，穩定幣是加密貨幣的乾粉。因此，當這筆資金在增長時，至少有一部分資本最終會追逐流動性最深的幣種以獲取收益，而比特幣仍然是加密領域中流動性最深的池子。</p>
</div><p>Fourth, global broad money supply is turning up after last year's contraction. That's important because the coin correlates more tightly with money supply growth than anything else. In other words, when the liquidity tide rises as a result of increases to the money supply, Bitcoin floats highest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第四，全球廣義貨幣供應在去年收縮後開始回升。這一點很重要，因為該幣種與貨幣供應增長的相關性比其他任何因素都要緊密。換句話説，當由於貨幣供應的增加而導致流動性潮水上漲時，比特幣的表現最為突出。</p>
</div><p>Finally, the altcoin market has woken up, and smart altcoin investors often rotate their profits back into Bitcoin rather than retaining highly volatile tokens. But before that, capital rotations into smaller tokens typically mark the middle innings of a bull run. It's a sign that capital is growing confident and looking for leverage, like what's happening right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，山寨幣市場已經甦醒，聰明的山寨幣投資者通常會將他們的利潤重新投入比特幣，而不是保留高度波動的代幣。但在此之前，資本流入較小代幣通常標誌着牛市的中期階段。這是一個信號，表明資本正在變得自信並尋求槓桿，就像現在發生的情況一樣。</p>
</div><p>Historically, once rotation begins, Bitcoin follows with a dominant move to reassert leadership, which is what could come next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，一旦輪換開始，比特幣就會隨之進行主導性移動以重新確立領導地位，這可能是接下來要發生的事情。</p>
</div><h2>Remember that headwinds still exist here</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>請記住，這裏仍然存在逆風</h2>
</div><p>The last two times all five of these gauges lined up, in October 2020 and January 2024, Bitcoin doubled within six months. That does not guarantee a repeat, even if it's probably enough to enable investors to buy the coin with confidence right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 年 10 月和 2024 年 1 月這兩次所有五個指標一致時，比特幣在六個月內翻了一番。這並不保證會重演，即使這可能足以讓投資者現在有信心地購買該幣。</p>
</div><p>Two clouds in particular could rain on the party.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有兩個特別的陰雲可能會給派對潑冷水。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as quickly as many investors are expecting, especially if tariff-driven inflation keeps consumer prices high. If rate-cut expectations get dashed again, liquidity growth could pause. That would imply doldrums for Bitcoin rather than a blastoff.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國聯邦儲備可能不會像許多投資者預期的那樣迅速降息，特別是如果關税驅動的通脹使消費者價格保持高位。如果降息預期再次落空，流動性增長可能會暫停。這將意味着比特幣可能會陷入低迷，而不是爆發。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Washington's crypto rulebook is still in the process of being written by the week, and considerable uncertainty remains regarding what the final set of regulators for the sector will be. Stablecoin oversight is advancing, but fresh requirements could slow supply growth if issuers need new licenses or capital buffers to play ball.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，華盛頓的加密貨幣規則手冊仍在每週不斷完善，關於該行業最終監管機構的重大不確定性依然存在。穩定幣的監管正在推進，但新的要求可能會減緩供應增長，如果發行者需要新的許可證或資本緩衝來參與。</p>
</div><h2>Positioning for a potential breakout</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為潛在突破做好準備</h2>
</div><p>Assuming the five signals keep humming, and regulatory matters and monetary policy don't get in the way, Bitcoin's odds of clearing its prior all-time highs look very strong over the next couple of quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假設這五個信號持續良好，監管事務和貨幣政策不會妨礙，比特幣在接下來的幾個季度突破其之前的歷史高點的幾率看起來非常強。</p>
</div><p>A sensible playbook here is to build or top up a position gradually using dollar-cost averaging (DCAing). Keep some capital in reserve so you can act on buying any dips without making emotional decisions. And make sure the size of your position won't upend your financial goals, even if Bitcoin drops 40% or more, which the crypto is entirely capable of doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這裏一個合理的操作方案是逐步建立或增加頭寸，採用定投（DCA）策略。保留一些資本以便在任何回調時能夠採取行動，而不做出情緒化的決策。並確保你的頭寸規模不會顛覆你的財務目標，即使比特幣下跌 40% 或更多，而這在加密貨幣中是完全可能的。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, this is a moment to get exposure methodically and stay alert, rather than chasing hype. The key is being prepared and being patient enough to let the coin do the work for you to grow over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於長期投資者來説，這是一個有條不紊地獲取敞口並保持警惕的時刻，而不是追逐炒作。關鍵是要做好準備，並耐心等待讓幣種為你隨着時間的推移而增長。</p>
</div>

5 Indicators Pointing Toward a Massive Bitcoin Breakout Right Now

- 比特幣當前面臨五個看漲信號，資金流入加速，ETF 投資超過 15 億美元。  
- 網絡交易費用達到 7890 萬美元，顯示出市場活躍度上升。  
- 穩定幣供應和全球貨幣供應增長，可能推動比特幣價格上漲。

5 個指標顯示比特幣當前可能出現大規模突破