<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 2.62%) 已經完全從四月份的劇烈拋售中恢復過來。截至本文撰寫時，英偉達今年迄今上漲了 17.5%，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 僅上漲了 5%——這使得這家芯片巨頭有望在連續第三年超越基準指數，此前在 2023-2024 年間上漲超過 819%。有很多理由相信，英偉達可以繼續成為未來幾年內的贏家投資。</p><p>如果你回到五或十年前，問投資者到 2025 年下半年最有價值的公司會是什麼——大多數人可能會説 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 或 <strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>。這四家公司在那段時間內都取得了優異的回報——但與英偉達相比，毫無疑問不值一提——英偉達現在是全球最有價值的公司，並且距離成為首個市值 4 萬億美元的公司僅一步之遙。</p><p>以下是為什麼這隻成長股現在值得買入，但為什麼英偉達不太可能在未來產生爆炸性收益的原因。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/3fde8271e5d65c12fb98b8e3ad56458d?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/3fde8271e5d65c12fb98b8e3ad56458d"/></figure><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="bj58xivd9">英偉達的盈利驅動增長</h2><p>英偉達因其超常的股票表現而備受關注。乍一看，飆升的股價看起來像是充滿熱空氣和狂熱的泡沫。但英偉達獨特之處在於，其股價實際上反映了公司的業績。</p><p>在短短几年內，英偉達從不穩定盈利轉變為高利潤的現金奶牛。注意英偉達（粉色線）從幾乎沒有淨收入變成了全球最盈利的公司之一。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c29e4d27c26bf71d06d937cf44c3b811?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="623" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c29e4d27c26bf71d06d937cf44c3b811"/></figure><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p><p>如上圖所示，英偉達在過去 12 個月的淨收入中排名第五，僅次於 Alphabet、蘋果、微軟和 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>。英偉達的秘密武器不是銷售——而是高利潤率。以下是同一組公司，但按利潤率排名。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/351d9c3eff3c81e5012d18c137a7c7cd?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="623" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/351d9c3eff3c81e5012d18c137a7c7cd"/></figure><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p><p>英偉達將超過一半的銷售額轉化為淨收入——對於一家設計實體產品而非銷售軟件或運營數字生態系統的公司來説，這實在是令人難以置信。</p><h2 id="c8hhj73py">人工智能支出全速推進</h2><p>擁有輕資本商業模式和高利潤率的公司值得獲得溢價估值，因為它們不需要投入大量資金就能賺錢。</p><p>英偉達將其芯片製造外包給像 <strong>台積電</strong> 這樣的合作伙伴，這與蘋果大多數產品不進行自我製造類似。然而，關鍵的區別在於，英偉達主要向企業銷售，而蘋果則面向消費者。</p><p>英偉達的主要客户是超大規模公司——那些對雲計算、運行人工智能（AI）模型等需求巨大的大型科技公司。</p><p>儘管面臨貿易緊張和關税壓力，但許多這些公司並沒有減少資本支出的跡象——這表明它們對人工智能採取了長期投資的信心。</p><p>隨着高利潤芯片的銷售不斷湧入，英偉達可以為其下一代產品的研發預算提供資金，並在不影響現金流的情況下承擔風險。只要這種良性循環持續下去，英偉達很可能會繼續超越標準普爾 500 指數。</p><p>除了擁有高利潤率外，英偉達還擁有無可挑剔的資產負債表，使其能夠在不影響財務健康的情況下積極投資於創新。該公司在最近一個季度結束時擁有 536.9 億美元的現金、現金等價物和可交易證券，以及僅 84.6 億美元的長期債務。擁有強大的資產負債表和高利潤率意味着英偉達可以承擔風險，而不需要每一筆投資都能獲利。</p><h2 id="6y1lshstw">英偉達並非沒有風險</h2><p>儘管有這些優勢，英偉達確實面臨一些可能影響未來股票表現的挑戰。競爭正在加劇，其他公司試圖侵蝕英偉達的主導市場份額。例如，<strong>博通</strong> 正在從超大規模客户那裏獲得對其人工智能芯片的巨大需求。</p><p>英偉達還容易受到地緣政治風險的影響，無論是在製造還是銷售其芯片方面。當貿易緊張局勢在四月份加劇時，英偉達表示，如果關税持續存在，可能會因與中國的關税和貿易限制而面臨 55 億美元的損失。</p><p>另一個風險是投資週期。英偉達的主要客户目前在芯片上的支出很高，因為我們仍處於人工智能投資的早期階段。隨着市場的成熟，一些客户可能會減緩投資步伐，從而影響英偉達的增長率。</p><p>最後，還有大數法則。英偉達在從十億級別的淨收入增長到數十億時，複合增長要容易得多。但隨着公司規模的擴大，以快速的速度增長利潤將變得更加困難。超大規模公司正在投資人工智能，但它們需要看到這些投資帶來回報，以提升預算，並進而增加對英偉達的訂單量。</p><p>公平地説，分析師共識估計已經預測到增長放緩，預計 2026 財年的每股收益（EPS）為 4.29 美元，2027 財年為 5.76 美元。但即使英偉達的增長放緩至每年約 30%，該股票仍然可以説是一個很好的價值。在本文撰寫時，英偉達的股價為 157.75 美元，基於 2026 財年 EPS 估計，其市盈率（P/E）為 36.8（如果股價保持不變），基於 2027 財年估計，其市盈率為 27.4。</p><h2 id="te645iyjj">英偉達在長期內可以繼續超越標準普爾 500 指數</h2><p>英偉達製造出極其複雜、尖端的產品。但其投資論點卻非常簡單。</p><p>英偉達的盈利增長可以為其股票價格的上漲提供合理依據，只要其客户繼續為其芯片和其他解決方案支付高價。然而，投資者應關注主要客户可能出現的支出縮減或來自競爭對手的利潤侵蝕。</p><p>到目前為止，幾乎沒有跡象表明英偉達的投資論點正在減弱。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達（Nvidia，股票代碼：NVDA）在經歷了一輪拋售後反彈，今年迄今上漲了 17.5%，表現優於標準普爾 500 指數的 5% 漲幅。在過去兩年中，英偉達的股價上漲了 819%，公司有望繼續保持成功，得益於高利潤率和對人工智能芯片的強勁需求。該公司擁有強健的資產負債表，現金達 536.9 億美元，債務極少。然而，面臨的挑戰包括競爭加劇、地緣政治風險以及隨着人工智能市場的成熟，客户支出可能發生的變化。儘管存在這些風險，英偉達仍然是一個強勁的投資選擇</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.62%) has more than recovered from a brutal sell-off in April. At the time of this writing, Nvidia is up 17.5% year to date compared to a 5% gain in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> -- putting the chip giant on track to outperform the benchmark index for the third consecutive year after gaining over 819% in 2023-2024. There are plenty of reasons to believe Nvidia can continue being a winning investment for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 2.62%) 已經完全從四月份的劇烈拋售中恢復過來。截至本文撰寫時，英偉達今年迄今上漲了 17.5%，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 僅上漲了 5%——這使得這家芯片巨頭有望在連續第三年超越基準指數，此前在 2023-2024 年間上漲超過 819%。有很多理由相信，英偉達可以繼續成為未來幾年內的贏家投資。</p>
</div><p>If you were to go back in time five or 10 years and ask investors what the most valuable company would be entering the second half of 2025 -- most folks probably would have said <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, or <strong>Alphabet</strong>. All four of those companies produced excellent returns over that period -- but none compare to Nvidia -- which is now the most valuable company in the world and is within striking distance of becoming the first $4 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你回到五或十年前，問投資者到 2025 年下半年最有價值的公司會是什麼——大多數人可能會説 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 或 <strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>。這四家公司在那段時間內都取得了優異的回報——但與英偉達相比，毫無疑問不值一提——英偉達現在是全球最有價值的公司，並且距離成為首個市值 4 萬億美元的公司僅一步之遙。</p>
</div><p>Here's why the growth stock is a buy now, but why Nvidia is unlikely to generate explosive gains going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是為什麼這隻成長股現在值得買入，但為什麼英偉達不太可能在未來產生爆炸性收益的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyOTQvYS1wZXJzb24tc21pbGVzLXdoaWxlLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtdGhlaXItcGhvbmUtYW5kLXNpdHRpbmctYXQtYS10YWJsZS13aXRoLW11bHRpcGxlLXNjcmVlbnMtZGlzcGxheWluZy1maW5hbmNpYWwtZGF0YS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823294%2Fa-person-smiles-while-looking-at-their-phone-and-sitting-at-a-table-with-multiple-screens-displaying-financial-data.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Earnings-driven growth for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的盈利驅動增長</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia gets a lot of attention for its outsize stock performance. At first glance, the surging stock price looks like a bubble full of hot air and euphoria. But what's so unique about Nvidia is that its stock price actually mirrors the company's performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達因其超常的股票表現而備受關注。乍一看，飆升的股價看起來像是充滿熱空氣和狂熱的泡沫。但英偉達獨特之處在於，其股價實際上反映了公司的業績。</p>
</div><p>In just a few years, Nvidia has gone from inconsistently profitable to a high-margin cash cow. Notice how Nvidia (the pink line) went from having very little net income to becoming one of the most profitable companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短短几年內，英偉達從不穩定盈利轉變為高利潤的現金奶牛。注意英偉達（粉色線）從幾乎沒有淨收入變成了全球最盈利的公司之一。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/25c1442110163111baa2c752251eac5f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/25c1442110163111baa2c752251eac5f.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>As you can see in the above chart, Nvidia is fifth behind Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> in terms of trailing-12-month net income. Nvidia's secret sauce isn't sales -- it's high margins. Here's that same list of companies, but ranked in order of profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上圖所示，英偉達在過去 12 個月的淨收入中排名第五，僅次於 Alphabet、蘋果、微軟和 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>。英偉達的秘密武器不是銷售——而是高利潤率。以下是同一組公司，但按利潤率排名。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5313356dba81753557dcb693171960ca.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5313356dba81753557dcb693171960ca.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is converting over half of its sales into net income -- which is incredible for a company that designs a physical product rather than selling software or operating a digital ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達將超過一半的銷售額轉化為淨收入——對於一家設計實體產品而非銷售軟件或運營數字生態系統的公司來説，這實在是令人難以置信。</p>
</div><h2>Full steam ahead on AI spending</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能支出全速推進</h2>
</div><p>Companies with capital-light business models and high margins deserve premium valuations because they don't need to invest a lot of money to make money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>擁有輕資本商業模式和高利潤率的公司值得獲得溢價估值，因為它們不需要投入大量資金就能賺錢。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia outsources its chip manufacturing to partners like <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>, similar to how Apple doesn't manufacture most of its products. However, the key difference is that Nvidia mainly sells to businesses, whereas Apple sells to consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達將其芯片製造外包給像 <strong>台積電</strong> 這樣的合作伙伴，這與蘋果大多數產品不進行自我製造類似。然而，關鍵的區別在於，英偉達主要向企業銷售，而蘋果則面向消費者。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's key customers are hyperscalers -- the other big tech companies that demand power for cloud computing, to run artificial intelligence (AI) models, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的主要客户是超大規模公司——那些對雲計算、運行人工智能（AI）模型等需求巨大的大型科技公司。</p>
</div><p>Despite trade tensions and tariff pressures, many of these companies showed no signs of reducing capital expenditures -- a vote of confidence that they are taking a long-term approach to AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管面臨貿易緊張和關税壓力，但許多這些公司並沒有減少資本支出的跡象——這表明它們對人工智能採取了長期投資的信心。</p>
</div><p>With sales pouring in for its high-margin chips, Nvidia can fuel its research and development budget for its next generation of products and take risks without straining its cash flow. As long as this virtuous cycle continues, Nvidia will likely be able to continue outperforming the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着高利潤芯片的銷售不斷湧入，英偉達可以為其下一代產品的研發預算提供資金，並在不影響現金流的情況下承擔風險。只要這種良性循環持續下去，英偉達很可能會繼續超越標準普爾 500 指數。</p>
</div><p>In addition to having high margins, Nvidia also has an impeccable balance sheet that allows it to aggressively invest in innovation without impacting its financial health. The company exited its most recent quarter with $53.69 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities and just $8.46 billion in long-term debt. Having a strong balance sheet and high margins means that Nvidia can afford to take risks without needing every bet to pay off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了擁有高利潤率外，英偉達還擁有無可挑剔的資產負債表，使其能夠在不影響財務健康的情況下積極投資於創新。該公司在最近一個季度結束時擁有 536.9 億美元的現金、現金等價物和可交易證券，以及僅 84.6 億美元的長期債務。擁有強大的資產負債表和高利潤率意味着英偉達可以承擔風險，而不需要每一筆投資都能獲利。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia isn't without risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達並非沒有風險</h2>
</div><p>Despite these advantages, Nvidia does have some challenges that could impact the stock going forward. Competition is heating up as other companies try to eat into Nvidia's dominant market share. For example, <strong>Broadcom</strong> is seeing phenomenal demand from hyperscale customers for its AI chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管有這些優勢，英偉達確實面臨一些可能影響未來股票表現的挑戰。競爭正在加劇，其他公司試圖侵蝕英偉達的主導市場份額。例如，<strong>博通</strong> 正在從超大規模客户那裏獲得對其人工智能芯片的巨大需求。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is also vulnerable to geopolitical risk, both in terms of manufacturing and selling its chips. When trade tensions were heating up in April, Nvidia said that it could take a $5.5 billion charge directly related to tariffs and trade restrictions with China if tariffs persisted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達還容易受到地緣政治風險的影響，無論是在製造還是銷售其芯片方面。當貿易緊張局勢在四月份加劇時，英偉達表示，如果關税持續存在，可能會因與中國的關税和貿易限制而面臨 55 億美元的損失。</p>
</div><p>Another risk is the investment cycle. Nvidia's key customers are spending a lot on chips right now because we are still in the early innings of AI investments. Some customers may take their foot off the gas as the market matures, impacting Nvidia's growth rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個風險是投資週期。英偉達的主要客户目前在芯片上的支出很高，因為我們仍處於人工智能投資的早期階段。隨着市場的成熟，一些客户可能會減緩投資步伐，從而影響英偉達的增長率。</p>
</div><p>Finally, there's the law of large numbers. It was much easier for Nvidia to compound when it went from single-digit billions to tens of billions in net income per year. But the larger the company gets, the harder it will be to grow profits at a breakneck rate. Hyperscalers are spending on AI, but they need to see these investments pay off to boost their budgets and, in turn, order volumes from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，還有大數法則。英偉達在從十億級別的淨收入增長到數十億時，複合增長要容易得多。但隨着公司規模的擴大，以快速的速度增長利潤將變得更加困難。超大規模公司正在投資人工智能，但它們需要看到這些投資帶來回報，以提升預算，並進而增加對英偉達的訂單量。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, a growth slowdown is already projected in analyst consensus estimates, which call for $4.29 in fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) and $5.76 in fiscal 2027. But even if Nvidia's growth slows to around 30% per year, the stock is arguably still a great value. At $157.75 per share at the time of this writing, Nvidia would have a 36.8 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on fiscal 2026 EPS estimates (and if the stock price remained flat) and a 27.4 P/E based on fiscal 2027 estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，分析師共識估計已經預測到增長放緩，預計 2026 財年的每股收益（EPS）為 4.29 美元，2027 財年為 5.76 美元。但即使英偉達的增長放緩至每年約 30%，該股票仍然可以説是一個很好的價值。在本文撰寫時，英偉達的股價為 157.75 美元，基於 2026 財年 EPS 估計，其市盈率（P/E）為 36.8（如果股價保持不變），基於 2027 財年估計，其市盈率為 27.4。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia can continue outperforming the S&amp;P 500 over the long term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達在長期內可以繼續超越標準普爾 500 指數</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia makes incredibly complicated, cutting-edge products. But its investment thesis is beautifully simple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達製造出極其複雜、尖端的產品。但其投資論點卻非常簡單。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's earnings growth can justify a higher stock price as long as its customers keep paying top dollar for its chips and other solutions. However, investors should be on the lookout for potential spending pullbacks from key customers or margin erosion from competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的盈利增長可以為其股票價格的上漲提供合理依據，只要其客户繼續為其芯片和其他解決方案支付高價。然而，投資者應關注主要客户可能出現的支出縮減或來自競爭對手的利潤侵蝕。</p>
</div><p>So far, there have been very few signs that indicate Nvidia's investment thesis is weakening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，幾乎沒有跡象表明英偉達的投資論點正在減弱。</p>
</div>

Will Nvidia Beat the S&P 500 for the Third Consecutive Year After Gaining 819% in the Prior 2 Years?

- Nvidia 股價已從四月的拋售中恢復，年初至今上漲 17.5%。  
- 公司在高利潤率和強勁現金流的支持下，繼續吸引投資。  
- 競爭加劇和地緣政治風險可能影響未來增長。

在過去兩年增長了 819% 之後，英偉達能否連續第三年超越標準普爾 500 指數？