<p>股市更關注未來的盈利潛力而非過去的表現——這可能就是為什麼 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>（NASDAQ: AAPL）和 <strong>Amazon</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）今天的市值都超過了 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 1.61%）（GOOGL 1.56%），儘管 Alphabet 是唯一一家在過去 12 個月淨收入超過 1000 億美元的 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 公司。</p>
<p>以下是市場為何將 Alphabet 的盈利與其他大型成長股視為不同，以及 Alphabet 現在是否值得購買的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMzMzIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtcmVhY3RpbmctdG8taW5mb3JtYXRpb24tb24tYS1zaGVldC1vZi1wYXBlci1pbi1hLWNvbmZ1c2VkLW1hbm5lci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMzMzIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtcmVhY3RpbmctdG8taW5mb3JtYXRpb24tb24tYS1zaGVldC1vZi1wYXBlci1pbi1hLWNvbmZ1c2VkLW1hbm5lci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>不僅僅是一個數字</h2>
<p>盈利是投資者用來評估公司價值的最重要指標之一。公司產生的利潤是投資論點的一個重要組成部分，但對未來利潤的預期同樣重要。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/893a943e7192be57d1cdc2558d8b40c9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/893a943e7192be57d1cdc2558d8b40c9.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 淨收入（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>儘管淨收入只是一個數字，但其中有值得理解的細微差別。一個在快速增長行業中運營、具有競爭優勢、高利潤率和良好資產負債表的領先公司，其盈利質量遠高於在衰退或甚至失敗的行業中運營的、週期性且資本密集型的公司。</p>
<p>這一概念解釋了為什麼即使是最好的石油和天然氣公司，如 <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> 和 <strong>Chevron</strong>，也會有如此低廉的估值。它們的盈利並不是高利潤的，產生這些盈利需要大量資本。而且，幾十年後，石油和天然氣的消費可能與今天大相徑庭。這並不意味着 ExxonMobil 和 Chevron 是糟糕的公司。實際上，兩者都是優秀的分紅股票。這只是意味着投資者不太可能以與高利潤率的超快速成長公司如 Nvidia 相同的價格來評估這些公司的盈利。</p>
<p>Alphabet 並沒有資本密集型的商業模式。它產生高利潤率，並且從其服務（如 Google 搜索、Google 網絡、YouTube、Android、Google Cloud 等）中擁有多樣化的收入來源。它還擁有出色的資產負債表，現金、現金等價物和可交易證券的總額超過債務。儘管有這些優勢，Alphabet 的市盈率（P/E）和前瞻市盈率遠低於 Nvidia、Microsoft、Apple 和 Amazon。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/46216995c59ea7bc22322010e51223b2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/46216995c59ea7bc22322010e51223b2.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>預期驅動估值</h2>
<p>這種折扣估值是 Alphabet 的市值低於其同行的原因，儘管其利潤更高。由於投資者對 Alphabet 未來盈利前景的樂觀程度較低，Alphabet 的估值遠低於一些同行。</p>
<p>Nvidia 正在推動人工智能（AI）的未來，提供數據中心的圖形處理單元。大型科技公司繼續在 AI 上投資，因此投資者對 Nvidia 產品的需求將持續增長持樂觀態度。</p>
<p>Microsoft 正在將 AI 整合到其軟件中，並且是僅次於 Amazon 的雲計算第二大玩家。相比之下，Alphabet 的 Google Cloud 在市場份額上遠遠落後。</p>
<p>Apple 的增長速度並不快，但該公司擁有如此強大的垂直整合的消費產品和服務生態系統，以至於投資者願意為其股票相對於盈利支付溢價。</p>
<p>Alphabet 的大部分運營收入來自 Google 搜索。與 Amazon（可以説是 Microsoft）不同，雲並不是該公司的最有價值的部分。Alphabet 的 AI 業務主要來自 Google Cloud 和其 “其他投資” 類別，其中包括自動駕駛公司 Waymo 和負責聊天機器人 Gemini 的 AI 研究實驗室 DeepMind。</p>
<p>總之，市場可能將 Alphabet 的商業模式視為比其他明顯受益於 AI 的大型成長公司更容易受到技術進步的影響。</p>
<h2>Alphabet 是一個無可挑剔的價值</h2>
<p>沃倫·巴菲特有一句著名（且仍然適用）的名言：“在股市中，你為樂觀的共識支付了非常高的價格。” 對許多投資者有利的公司往往會要求昂貴的估值，而具有不確定性的公司則可能以折扣價出售。</p>
<p>現在購買 Alphabet 的最簡單理由是，如果你認為市場對該公司 AI 潛力的懷疑是不 warranted 或過度的。在這種情況下，投資者可以以遠低於同行的價格購買 Alphabet。如果 Alphabet 的市盈率為 30，而不是低於 20 的市盈率，它的市值將超過 3 萬億美元。如果它的市盈率與 Microsoft 相同，它將成為世界上最有價值的公司。</p>
<p>在許多方面，Alphabet 確實應該以低於這些其他大型科技公司的價格交易。但也許只是低一點——而不是我們今天在市場上看到的巨大差異。總的來説，現在是對大型科技感興趣的價值投資者購買 Alphabet 股票的絕佳時機。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>儘管 Alphabet 是標準普爾 500 指數中最盈利的公司，淨收入超過 1000 億美元，但其市值卻低於 Nvidia、Microsoft、Apple 和 Amazon。這一差異源於市場對未來盈利潛力的看法，投資者對 Alphabet 的增長前景，尤其是在人工智能領域的樂觀程度較低。雖然 Alphabet 擁有強勁的資產負債表和多元化的收入來源，但其較低的市盈率反映了市場對其人工智能能力的懷疑，相較於同行而言。價值投資者可能會發現 Alphabet 在當前折扣估值下具有吸引力</p>

<p>The stock market cares more about future earnings potential than the past -- and that may be why <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>(NASDAQ: AAPL), and <strong>Amazon</strong>(NASDAQ: AMZN) are all worth more than <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.61%)(GOOGL 1.56%) today even though Alphabet is the only <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> stock with over $100 billion in trailing-12-month net income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市更關注未來的盈利潛力而非過去的表現——這可能就是為什麼 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>（NASDAQ: AAPL）和 <strong>Amazon</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）今天的市值都超過了 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 1.61%）（GOOGL 1.56%），儘管 Alphabet 是唯一一家在過去 12 個月淨收入超過 1000 億美元的 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 公司。</p>
</div><p>Here's why the market views Alphabet's earnings differently than other megacap growth stocks, and whether Alphabet is a buy now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是市場為何將 Alphabet 的盈利與其他大型成長股視為不同，以及 Alphabet 現在是否值得購買的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMzMzIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtcmVhY3RpbmctdG8taW5mb3JtYXRpb24tb24tYS1zaGVldC1vZi1wYXBlci1pbi1hLWNvbmZ1c2VkLW1hbm5lci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823332%2Ftwo-people-sitting-on-a-couch-reacting-to-information-on-a-sheet-of-paper-in-a-confused-manner.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>More than just a number</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不僅僅是一個數字</h2>
</div><p>Earnings are one of the most important metrics investors use to value a company. How much profit a company generates is an integral part of an investment thesis. But so are expectations for future profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利是投資者用來評估公司價值的最重要指標之一。公司產生的利潤是投資論點的一個重要組成部分，但對未來利潤的預期同樣重要。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/893a943e7192be57d1cdc2558d8b40c9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/893a943e7192be57d1cdc2558d8b40c9.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL Net Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 淨收入（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Although net income is just a number, there are nuances worth understanding. A leading company that operates in a growing industry with competitive advantages, high profit margins, and a great balance sheet will have far higher-quality earnings than a company operating in a declining or even failing industry that is cyclical and capital-intensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管淨收入只是一個數字，但其中有值得理解的細微差別。一個在快速增長行業中運營、具有競爭優勢、高利潤率和良好資產負債表的領先公司，其盈利質量遠高於在衰退或甚至失敗的行業中運營的、週期性且資本密集型的公司。</p>
</div><p>This concept is why even the best oil and gas companies, like <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> and <strong>Chevron</strong>, sport such inexpensive valuations. Their earnings aren't high-margin. Generating them takes a lot of capital. And oil and gas consumption may look much different decades from now than today. This doesn't mean ExxonMobil and Chevron are bad companies. In fact, both are excellent dividend stocks. It just means investors are unlikely to pay the same price for these companies relative to their earnings as, say, an ultra-fast-growing company with high margins like Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一概念解釋了為什麼即使是最好的石油和天然氣公司，如 <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> 和 <strong>Chevron</strong>，也會有如此低廉的估值。它們的盈利並不是高利潤的，產生這些盈利需要大量資本。而且，幾十年後，石油和天然氣的消費可能與今天大相徑庭。這並不意味着 ExxonMobil 和 Chevron 是糟糕的公司。實際上，兩者都是優秀的分紅股票。這只是意味着投資者不太可能以與高利潤率的超快速成長公司如 Nvidia 相同的價格來評估這些公司的盈利。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet doesn't have a capital-intensive business model. It generates high margins and has diverse revenue streams from its services like Google Search, Google Network, YouTube, Android, Google Cloud, and more. It also has a phenomenal balance sheet with more cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities than debt. Despite these advantages, Alphabet sports a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and forward P/E ratio that are far lower than Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 並沒有資本密集型的商業模式。它產生高利潤率，並且從其服務（如 Google 搜索、Google 網絡、YouTube、Android、Google Cloud 等）中擁有多樣化的收入來源。它還擁有出色的資產負債表，現金、現金等價物和可交易證券的總額超過債務。儘管有這些優勢，Alphabet 的市盈率（P/E）和前瞻市盈率遠低於 Nvidia、Microsoft、Apple 和 Amazon。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/46216995c59ea7bc22322010e51223b2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/46216995c59ea7bc22322010e51223b2.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Expectations drive valuations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預期驅動估值</h2>
</div><p>This discounted valuation is why Alphabet is worth less than its peers despite making more profit. Alphabet's valuation is much cheaper than some of its peers because investors are less optimistic about its future earnings prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種折扣估值是 Alphabet 的市值低於其同行的原因，儘管其利潤更高。由於投資者對 Alphabet 未來盈利前景的樂觀程度較低，Alphabet 的估值遠低於一些同行。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is powering the future of artificial intelligence (AI) with its graphics processing units for data centers. Big tech continues to spend on AI, so investors are optimistic that demand for Nvidia's products will continue growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 正在推動人工智能（AI）的未來，提供數據中心的圖形處理單元。大型科技公司繼續在 AI 上投資，因此投資者對 Nvidia 產品的需求將持續增長持樂觀態度。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is integrating AI into its software and is the No. 2 player in cloud computing behind Amazon. In contrast, Alphabet's Google Cloud is a distant third in market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Microsoft 正在將 AI 整合到其軟件中，並且是僅次於 Amazon 的雲計算第二大玩家。相比之下，Alphabet 的 Google Cloud 在市場份額上遠遠落後。</p>
</div><p>Apple isn't growing quickly, but the company has such a dominant, vertically integrated ecosystem of consumer products and services that investors are willing to pay a premium price for the stock relative to its earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 的增長速度並不快，但該公司擁有如此強大的垂直整合的消費產品和服務生態系統，以至於投資者願意為其股票相對於盈利支付溢價。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet makes the majority of its operating income from Google Search. Unlike Amazon (and arguably Microsoft), cloud is not the most valuable aspect of the company. Alphabet's AI plays mainly come from Google Cloud and its &#34;Other Bets&#34; category, which consists of projects like self-driving company Waymo and AI research lab DeepMind, which is behind the chatbot Gemini.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的大部分運營收入來自 Google 搜索。與 Amazon（可以説是 Microsoft）不同，雲並不是該公司的最有價值的部分。Alphabet 的 AI 業務主要來自 Google Cloud 和其 “其他投資” 類別，其中包括自動駕駛公司 Waymo 和負責聊天機器人 Gemini 的 AI 研究實驗室 DeepMind。</p>
</div><p>In sum, the market may be viewing Alphabet's business model as more vulnerable to technological advancements in AI than other megacap growth companies that are clearly benefiting from AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，市場可能將 Alphabet 的商業模式視為比其他明顯受益於 AI 的大型成長公司更容易受到技術進步的影響。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet is an impeccable value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Alphabet 是一個無可挑剔的價值</h2>
</div><p>There's a famous (and still relevant) quote by Warren Buffett that goes, &#34;You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.&#34; Companies that are favorable to many investors tend to demand expensive valuations, whereas companies with an element of uncertainty can fetch a discount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特有一句著名（且仍然適用）的名言：“在股市中，你為樂觀的共識支付了非常高的價格。” 對許多投資者有利的公司往往會要求昂貴的估值，而具有不確定性的公司則可能以折扣價出售。</p>
</div><p>The simplest reason to buy Alphabet right now is if you believe the market's skepticism about the company's AI potential is unwarranted or overblown. In that case, investors can buy Alphabet at a steep discount to its peers. If Alphabet had a 30 P/E ratio instead of a sub-20 P/E, it would be worth well over $3 trillion. If it had Microsoft's P/E, it would be the most valuable company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在購買 Alphabet 的最簡單理由是，如果你認為市場對該公司 AI 潛力的懷疑是不 warranted 或過度的。在這種情況下，投資者可以以遠低於同行的價格購買 Alphabet。如果 Alphabet 的市盈率為 30，而不是低於 20 的市盈率，它的市值將超過 3 萬億美元。如果它的市盈率與 Microsoft 相同，它將成為世界上最有價值的公司。</p>
</div><p>In many ways, Alphabet deserves to trade at a discount to these other big tech names. But maybe only by a little bit -- not the drastic discrepancy we are seeing in the market today. All told, now is a great time for value investors interested in big tech to buy Alphabet stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在許多方面，Alphabet 確實應該以低於這些其他大型科技公司的價格交易。但也許只是低一點——而不是我們今天在市場上看到的巨大差異。總的來説，現在是對大型科技感興趣的價值投資者購買 Alphabet 股票的絕佳時機。</p>
</div>

Why Is Alphabet Stock Worth Less Than Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon Even Though It Is the Most Profitable S&P 500 Company?

- 市場更關注未來盈利潛力，導致 Alphabet 估值低於其他科技巨頭。  
- 儘管 Alphabet 淨收入超過 1000 億美元，但投資者對其未來盈利預期不樂觀。  
- 當前是價值投資者購買 Alphabet 股票的良機。  

為什麼 Alphabet 的股票價值低於 Nvidia、微軟、蘋果和亞馬遜，即使它是標普 500 中最賺錢的公司？