<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) 憑藉其一流的圖形處理單元 (GPU) 一躍成為全球最有價值公司的榜首。英偉達的芯片對於訓練大型語言模型及其在應用中的使用至關重要。隨着大型科技公司競相構建更強大的人工智能能力，它們以英偉達能夠提供的速度迅速購買其芯片。</p>
<p>隨着英偉達接近 4 萬億美元的市值，其他公司幾乎沒有接近這個價值的。<strong>微軟</strong> 是唯一一家市值超過 3.5 萬億美元的公司。但我預計在三年內將有另外兩家公司超過英偉達的估值，儘管它們目前的市值僅為英偉達的 50% 到 60%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM0NTcvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM0NTcvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：英偉達。</p>
<h2>英偉達能否突破 4 萬億美元？</h2>
<p>在我寫這篇文章時，英偉達距離 4 萬億美元的里程碑僅有 4%。這不僅會使其成為首家超過該價值的公司，而且還將是在極快增長之後實現的。幾年前，該公司的市值還不到 1 萬億美元。如此龐大的公司以如此快的速度增長，令人難以置信地反駁了大數法則。</p>
<p>推動英偉達強勁股價表現的有兩個因素。首先，其收入增長持續令人印象深刻。第一季度總收入增長了 69%，達到了 441 億美元。此外，隨着需求持續超過新芯片設計的供應，它每個季度都產生了極高的毛利率。第一季度的調整後毛利率為 71.3%。這兩者的結合導致了該業務的驚人盈利增長。</p>
<p>儘管英偉達在 GPU 領域的競爭芯片製造商中保持領先，但其最大的競爭對手在性能上顯示出追趕的跡象。此外，其業務的很大一部分集中在少數幾個大客户身上。這些客户正在積極努力將更多的人工智能工作負載轉移到其他芯片製造商定製的芯片設計上，以提高成本效益。這些客户也受到激勵去探索英偉達的替代方案，以防止這家芯片製造商對他們進行價格欺詐。</p>
<p>儘管英偉達應該繼續在人工智能芯片銷售中佔據大部分市場份額，但其股票的定價似乎沒有考慮到上述威脅。這使得現在的投資風險較大，並且在未來三年內預計股票增長放緩並不不合理。</p>
<p>這為兩家被低估的科技巨頭提供了超越這家芯片製造商市值的機會。這兩家公司在未來三年內看起來可能會遠遠超過英偉達。</p>
<h2>1. 亞馬遜</h2>
<p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN 1.62%) 運營着全球第二大零售業務和全球最大的雲計算平台。</p>
<p>與英偉達類似，亞馬遜的業務也受益於對人工智能 (AI) 的不斷增長的支出。儘管在生成性人工智能領域起步較慢，但亞馬遜網絡服務 (AWS) 仍然保持領先地位，併為開發者提供引人注目的人工智能服務。在第一季度的財報電話會議上，首席執行官安迪·賈西表示，其人工智能業務為 AWS 產生了數十億美元的收入，並以三位數的百分比增長。</p>
<p>這種強勁的增長幫助 AWS 擴大了運營利潤率，第一季度達到了 39.5%。與此同時，管理層表示對其服務器的需求超過了供應，因此正在大量投資以擴大產能。管理層表示，今年的總資本支出將超過 1000 億美元，其中大部分將用於建設和裝備新的數據中心。</p>
<p>亞馬遜在其不斷增長的雲計算業務上的鉅額現金支出得到了其零售業務近期強勁表現的支持。特別是，得益於美國物流的重組，公司在過去幾年中顯著提高了運營利潤率。現在，它能夠以更快的速度向客户發貨，這也幫助其運輸費用在銷售中的比例保持較低。此外，亞馬遜在高利潤廣告銷售方面也實現了強勁增長。總體而言，其北美零售運營利潤率在過去 12 個月中擴大至 6.6%，而其國際業務在去年實現了正增長。</p>
<p>亞馬遜在未來三年內其價值大幅增長有幾個原因。首先，其雲計算和零售業務的強勁業績在可預見的未來應會持續。作為領先的雲服務提供商，它仍然處於吸引希望在其運營中利用人工智能的企業的有利位置。</p>
<p>其次，隨着對 AWS 的支出不斷增長，資本支出小幅上升，預計公司在未來三年內將實現強勁的自由現金流增長。這可能會使公司迅速接近 1000 億美元的自由現金流。如果股票提供 2.5% 的自由現金流收益率，低於其歷史平均水平，這將使其成為一家 4 萬億美元的公司。</p>
<h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.73%) 是全球最大的社交媒體公司，擁有超過 34 億獨特用户，涵蓋其應用家族。它也是虛擬和增強現實技術的領先開發者。</p>
<p>Meta 多年來一直在大力投資人工智能的開發，最近隨着生成性人工智能展現出完全轉變其業務的潛力，進一步加大了投資力度。Meta 計劃在今年投入約 700 億美元用於建設數據中心，並且最近還在進行招聘潮。這包括對 Scale AI 的 143 億美元投資，促使公司的首席執行官遷移到 Meta 並領導其新的人工智能超級智能實驗室。</p>
<p>該公司正在努力追趕領先的模型，因為其 Llama 4 模型讓開發者失望。但隨着行業變化的速度，Meta 有能力做到這一點。</p>
<p>人工智能對 Meta 運營的影響在過去幾年中已經顯著。得益於更高的用户參與度和更高的廣告價格，該公司的廣告收入在第一季度增長了 16%。但這兩者都可能因人工智能的進一步進展而得到提升。</p>
<p>Meta 目前正在開發一種人工智能代理，可以為營銷人員開發、測試和優化廣告活動。這可能會增加現有營銷人員的廣告支出意願，同時吸引新的廣告客户進入 Meta 廣告生態系統。如果人工智能在為個人定製廣告方面比人類更有效，這可能會導致更高的轉化率，進一步支持在 Meta 平台上的廣告支出增加。</p>
<p>這種能力也體現了 Meta 開發針對每個用户獨特的 AI 生成內容的能力，以提升其平台的整體參與度並增加廣告機會。Meta 已經在其信息流中實驗有限的 AI 生成內容。</p>
<p>這應該支持 Meta 在未來幾年內強勁的收入增長，即使它在生成式人工智能和 Reality Labs 部門上投入巨資。如果人工智能能夠推動更多消費者購買像 Meta 的 AI 眼鏡或 Oculus 頭顯這樣的可穿戴設備，這可能進一步支持該業務的強勁利潤擴張。</p>
<p>該股票目前的交易價格為未來收益預期的 29 倍。但我預測 Meta 在未來三年將超出現有預期，股票將迅速上漲。即使它維持當前的收益倍數，未來三年平均收益增長僅為 14.5%——與分析師的預期一致——也應該使股票從這裏上漲超過 50%，接近 3 萬億美元。而且從這裏還有很大的上行空間。</p>

英偉達

亞馬遜

亞馬遜每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>英偉達接近 4 萬億美元的市值，主導了人工智能芯片市場，但面臨來自定製芯片設計的競爭和風險。儘管收入增長令人矚目，其股票可能會放緩，這使得兩家被低估的公司——亞馬遜和另一家未透露名稱的科技巨頭——在三年內有可能超越英偉達的估值。亞馬遜在零售和雲計算方面表現強勁，尤其是在人工智能服務領域，為未來的增長奠定了良好的基礎，得益於大量的資本投資和改善的運營利潤率</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) has soared to the top of the list of most valuable companies in the world thanks to its best-in-class graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia's chips are essential for training large language models and using them in applications. As big tech companies race to build better and better AI capabilities, they've been buying up Nvidia's chips as fast as the company can provide them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) 憑藉其一流的圖形處理單元 (GPU) 一躍成為全球最有價值公司的榜首。英偉達的芯片對於訓練大型語言模型及其在應用中的使用至關重要。隨着大型科技公司競相構建更強大的人工智能能力，它們以英偉達能夠提供的速度迅速購買其芯片。</p>
</div><p>As Nvidia approaches a $4 trillion market capitalization, few other companies are even close to that value. <strong>Microsoft</strong> is the only other company with a value above $3.5 trillion. But I expect that two other companies will surpass Nvidia's valuation within three years, even though they're currently worth between 50% and 60% of Nvidia's market value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着英偉達接近 4 萬億美元的市值，其他公司幾乎沒有接近這個價值的。<strong>微軟</strong> 是唯一一家市值超過 3.5 萬億美元的公司。但我預計在三年內將有另外兩家公司超過英偉達的估值，儘管它們目前的市值僅為英偉達的 50% 到 60%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM0NTcvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823457%2Fnvidia-headquarters-outside-with-black-nvidia-sign-with-nvidia-logo.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：英偉達。</p>
</div><h2>Can Nvidia break $4 trillion?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達能否突破 4 萬億美元？</h2>
</div><p>As I write this, Nvidia is within 4% of the $4 trillion milestone. Not only would that make it the first company to surpass that value, it would also come after extremely fast growth. The company was worth less than $1 trillion just a couple of years ago. A company that large growing that fast is an incredible refutation of the law of large numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我寫這篇文章時，英偉達距離 4 萬億美元的里程碑僅有 4%。這不僅會使其成為首家超過該價值的公司，而且還將是在極快增長之後實現的。幾年前，該公司的市值還不到 1 萬億美元。如此龐大的公司以如此快的速度增長，令人難以置信地反駁了大數法則。</p>
</div><p>Two factors have been driving Nvidia's strong stock performance. First, its revenue growth has continued to impress. Total revenue climbed 69% in the first quarter to $44.1 billion. On top of that, it's produced an extremely high gross margin each quarter as demand continues to outstrip its supply for new chip designs. Adjusted gross margin in the first quarter was 71.3%. The combination has led to incredible earnings growth for the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推動英偉達強勁股價表現的有兩個因素。首先，其收入增長持續令人印象深刻。第一季度總收入增長了 69%，達到了 441 億美元。此外，隨着需求持續超過新芯片設計的供應，它每個季度都產生了極高的毛利率。第一季度的調整後毛利率為 71.3%。這兩者的結合導致了該業務的驚人盈利增長。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia has managed to stay ahead of competing chipmakers in the GPU space, its biggest competitors are showing signs of catching up in performance. On top of that, a huge chunk of its business is concentrated in just a handful of big customers. And those customers are actively working to move more of their AI workloads onto custom chip designs made by other chipmakers in order to improve cost performance. Those customers are also incentivized to explore alternatives to Nvidia in order to prevent the chipmaker from price gouging them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管英偉達在 GPU 領域的競爭芯片製造商中保持領先，但其最大的競爭對手在性能上顯示出追趕的跡象。此外，其業務的很大一部分集中在少數幾個大客户身上。這些客户正在積極努力將更多的人工智能工作負載轉移到其他芯片製造商定製的芯片設計上，以提高成本效益。這些客户也受到激勵去探索英偉達的替代方案，以防止這家芯片製造商對他們進行價格欺詐。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia should continue to take the bulk of the share in AI chip sales, its stock is priced as if the above threats didn't exist. That makes it a risky investment right now, and it's not unreasonable to expect slower growth in the stock over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管英偉達應該繼續在人工智能芯片銷售中佔據大部分市場份額，但其股票的定價似乎沒有考慮到上述威脅。這使得現在的投資風險較大，並且在未來三年內預計股票增長放緩並不不合理。</p>
</div><p>That gives an opportunity for two undervalued tech giants to surpass the chipmaker in market cap. These two look like they could grow well beyond Nvidia over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這為兩家被低估的科技巨頭提供了超越這家芯片製造商市值的機會。這兩家公司在未來三年內看起來可能會遠遠超過英偉達。</p>
</div><h2>1. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 亞馬遜</h2>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.62%) operates the second-largest retail business in the world and the largest cloud computing platform in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN 1.62%) 運營着全球第二大零售業務和全球最大的雲計算平台。</p>
</div><p>Like Nvidia, Amazon has seen its business benefit from the growing spending on artificial intelligence (AI). Despite its slow start in the generative AI space, Amazon Web Services (AWS) has managed to maintain its leading position and offer compelling AI services to developers. During its first-quarter earnings call, CEO Andy Jassy said its AI business is generating multiple billions of revenue for AWS and growing at triple-digit percentage rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與英偉達類似，亞馬遜的業務也受益於對人工智能 (AI) 的不斷增長的支出。儘管在生成性人工智能領域起步較慢，但亞馬遜網絡服務 (AWS) 仍然保持領先地位，併為開發者提供引人注目的人工智能服務。在第一季度的財報電話會議上，首席執行官安迪·賈西表示，其人工智能業務為 AWS 產生了數十億美元的收入，並以三位數的百分比增長。</p>
</div><p>That strong growth has helped expand the operating margin for AWS, which climbed to 39.5% in the first quarter. At the same time, management says demand for its servers exceeds its supply, so it's spending heavily to expand its capacity. Total capital expenditures will total over $100 billion this year, management says. Most of that will go toward building and outfitting new data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種強勁的增長幫助 AWS 擴大了運營利潤率，第一季度達到了 39.5%。與此同時，管理層表示對其服務器的需求超過了供應，因此正在大量投資以擴大產能。管理層表示，今年的總資本支出將超過 1000 億美元，其中大部分將用於建設和裝備新的數據中心。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's massive cash outlay for its growing cloud computing business is supported by the recent strength of its retail operations. In particular the company has pushed its operating margin significantly higher over the last couple of years, thanks, in part, to a reorganization of its U.S. logistics. It's now able to ship more items to customers with faster speeds, which has also helped keep its shipping expenses low as a percentage of sales. Additionally, Amazon has seen strong growth in its high-margin advertising sales. Overall, its North American retail operating margin has expanded to 6.6% of the last 12 months and its international segment turned positive last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜在其不斷增長的雲計算業務上的鉅額現金支出得到了其零售業務近期強勁表現的支持。特別是，得益於美國物流的重組，公司在過去幾年中顯著提高了運營利潤率。現在，它能夠以更快的速度向客户發貨，這也幫助其運輸費用在銷售中的比例保持較低。此外，亞馬遜在高利潤廣告銷售方面也實現了強勁增長。總體而言，其北美零售運營利潤率在過去 12 個月中擴大至 6.6%，而其國際業務在去年實現了正增長。</p>
</div><p>There are a couple of reasons Amazon should see its value increase substantially over the next three years. First, the strong results of its cloud and retail operations should continue for the foreseeable future. As the leading cloud provider, it's still in pole position to attract enterprises looking to utilize AI in their operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜在未來三年內其價值大幅增長有幾個原因。首先，其雲計算和零售業務的強勁業績在可預見的未來應會持續。作為領先的雲服務提供商，它仍然處於吸引希望在其運營中利用人工智能的企業的有利位置。</p>
</div><p>Second, the company should see strong free-cash-flow growth over the next three years, as it sees growing spending on AWS with smaller steps up in capital expenditures. That could push the company toward $100 billion in free cash flow in short order. If the stock offers a 2.5% free-cash-flow yield, which is below its historical average, that would make it a $4 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，隨着對 AWS 的支出不斷增長，資本支出小幅上升，預計公司在未來三年內將實現強勁的自由現金流增長。這可能會使公司迅速接近 1000 億美元的自由現金流。如果股票提供 2.5% 的自由現金流收益率，低於其歷史平均水平，這將使其成為一家 4 萬億美元的公司。</p>
</div><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
</div><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.73%) is the largest social media company in the world with over 3.4 billion unique users across its family of apps. It's also a leading developer of virtual and augmented reality technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.73%) 是全球最大的社交媒體公司，擁有超過 34 億獨特用户，涵蓋其應用家族。它也是虛擬和增強現實技術的領先開發者。</p>
</div><p>Meta has been spending heavily on developing artificial intelligence for years, recently stepping up its investments as generative AI shows the promise to completely transform its business. Not only is Meta planning about $70 billion of capital expenditures this year to build out data centers, it's also been on a hiring spree recently. That includes a $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI, which led the company's CEO to migrate to Meta and head up its new AI super intelligence lab.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 多年來一直在大力投資人工智能的開發，最近隨着生成性人工智能展現出完全轉變其業務的潛力，進一步加大了投資力度。Meta 計劃在今年投入約 700 億美元用於建設數據中心，並且最近還在進行招聘潮。這包括對 Scale AI 的 143 億美元投資，促使公司的首席執行官遷移到 Meta 並領導其新的人工智能超級智能實驗室。</p>
</div><p>The company is working to catch up with leading models after its Llama 4 model disappointed developers. But with the speed of change in the industry, Meta has the capability of doing just that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司正在努力追趕領先的模型，因為其 Llama 4 模型讓開發者失望。但隨着行業變化的速度，Meta 有能力做到這一點。</p>
</div><p>The impact of AI on Meta's operations over the last couple of years is already notable. The company's ad revenue climbed 16% in the first quarter on the back of both higher engagement and higher ad prices. But both could get a boost from further advances in AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能對 Meta 運營的影響在過去幾年中已經顯著。得益於更高的用户參與度和更高的廣告價格，該公司的廣告收入在第一季度增長了 16%。但這兩者都可能因人工智能的進一步進展而得到提升。</p>
</div><p>Meta is now working on an AI agent that can develop, test, and optimize ad campaigns for marketers. This could increase existing marketers' willingness to spend on ads while bringing in new advertisers to the Meta ads ecosystem. And if AI is better at tailoring ads to individuals than humans, it could result in higher conversions, further supporting higher ad spending on Meta's platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 目前正在開發一種人工智能代理，可以為營銷人員開發、測試和優化廣告活動。這可能會增加現有營銷人員的廣告支出意願，同時吸引新的廣告客户進入 Meta 廣告生態系統。如果人工智能在為個人定製廣告方面比人類更有效，這可能會導致更高的轉化率，進一步支持在 Meta 平台上的廣告支出增加。</p>
</div><p>That capability also speaks to Meta's ability to develop AI-generated content unique for each of its users to boost overall engagement on its platform and increase advertising opportunities. Meta's already experimenting with limited AI-generated content in its feeds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種能力也體現了 Meta 開發針對每個用户獨特的 AI 生成內容的能力，以提升其平台的整體參與度並增加廣告機會。Meta 已經在其信息流中實驗有限的 AI 生成內容。</p>
</div><p>This should support strong revenue growth for Meta over the next few years, even as it spends heavily on both generative AI and its Reality Labs segment. And if AI can push more consumers to buy wearables like Meta's AI glasses or Oculus headsets, that could further support strong margin expansion for the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這應該支持 Meta 在未來幾年內強勁的收入增長，即使它在生成式人工智能和 Reality Labs 部門上投入巨資。如果人工智能能夠推動更多消費者購買像 Meta 的 AI 眼鏡或 Oculus 頭顯這樣的可穿戴設備，這可能進一步支持該業務的強勁利潤擴張。</p>
</div><p>The stock currently trades for 29 times forward earnings expectations. But I predict Meta will outperform existing expectations over the next three years and the stock will climb rapidly as a result. Even if it maintains its current earnings multiple, average earnings growth of just 14.5% over the next three years -- in line with analysts expectations -- should push the stock more than 50% higher from here, approaching $3 trillion. And there's a lot of upside from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該股票目前的交易價格為未來收益預期的 29 倍。但我預測 Meta 在未來三年將超出現有預期，股票將迅速上漲。即使它維持當前的收益倍數，未來三年平均收益增長僅為 14.5%——與分析師的預期一致——也應該使股票從這裏上漲超過 50%，接近 3 萬億美元。而且從這裏還有很大的上行空間。</p>
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Prediction: 2 Incredible Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia in 3 Years

- Nvidia 市值接近 4 萬億美元，成為全球最有價值公司之一。  
- 其強勁的收入增長和高毛利率推動了股價表現。  
- 預計亞馬遜和 Meta 將在未來三年內超越 Nvidia 的市值。

預測：兩隻極具潛力的人工智能（AI）股票將在三年內價值超過英偉達