<p><strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A 0.98%)(BRK.B 0.98%) 的股票自沃倫·巴菲特宣佈他將在年底辭去首席執行官職務（但仍將擔任董事長）以來大幅下跌。</p>
<p>這就是為什麼此次拋售對尋求長期持有超可靠藍籌股的投資者來説是一個買入機會。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLXBpZWNlLW9mLXBhcGVyLXNpdHMtYXQtYS1kZXNrLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItbW9uaXRvci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLXBpZWNlLW9mLXBhcGVyLXNpdHMtYXQtYS1kZXNrLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItbW9uaXRvci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>成長股重新迴歸</h2>
<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票在年初表現強勁——在 5 月 2 日創下歷史新高——就在其在奧馬哈的年度股東大會前一天。</p>
<p>但在那次會議和 6 月 30 日之間，伯克希爾的股價下跌了 10%，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.83%) 則上漲了 9.1%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13f7bb07bafd4e14fb0c158532730dd8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="487" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13f7bb07bafd4e14fb0c158532730dd8.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>在短時間內，這一顯著的表現不佳是伯克希爾投資者所不習慣的。長期以來，該股票的表現超過了標準普爾 500 指數，從 1965 年到 2024 年，年均複合增長率為 19.9%，而該指數（包括再投資的股息）為 10.4%。</p>
<p>伯克希爾落後於標準普爾 500 指數的部分原因是投資情緒的變化。當關税動盪在市場上蔓延時，一些投資者傾向於選擇那些即使在這些緊張局勢升級時也能保持良好表現的公司。</p>
<p>無論市場週期如何，伯克希爾都是一隻超安全的股票。這是因為它擁有的資產組合——從保險業務到 BNSF 鐵路、能源巨頭伯克希爾哈撒韋能源、製造資產、服務和零售業務，以及在 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>美國運通</strong>、<strong>可口可樂</strong> 等公共公司的持股。但最近，伯克希爾變得更加謹慎。</p>
<p>在 2025 年第一季度的財務報告中，伯克希爾披露了創紀錄的 3480 億美元現金、現金等價物和短期國債。在股東大會上，巴菲特表示，伯克希爾持有的國債超過了他所希望的，但強調了耐心和等待優秀投資機會的重要性。在這種情況下，伯克希爾變得更加防禦性，因此在波動性激增時，投資者傾向於選擇它。</p>
<p>巴菲特辭去首席執行官職務的消息，加上投資者尋求風險更高、潛在回報更大的股票以及較少防禦性的股票，可能解釋了為什麼伯克希爾在過去兩個月中表現如此不佳。</p>
<h2>伯克希爾充滿複合潛力</h2>
<p>作為長期投資者，重要的是要過濾市場波動的噪音，並理解股票價格在短期內可能會做出各種與長期投資理論無關的變化。</p>
<p>今年早些時候，伯克希爾的股價受到一些投資者從大型成長股轉向價值股的推動。但現在，情況正好相反，一些價值股如伯克希爾正在拋售或表現不佳，而大型成長股如 <strong>英偉達</strong> 和 <strong>微軟</strong> 則創下歷史新高。這並不是説英偉達和微軟的商業模式在幾個月前和現在發生了變化。相反，投資者願意為未來的盈利增長支付溢價，因為關税減緩這一增長的風險大大降低。</p>
<p>與其關注哪些股票受歡迎或不受歡迎，不如更好地識別優秀的企業，然後判斷價格是否合理。巴菲特評估伯克希爾的首選方式是通過其運營收益，這反映了其擁有的企業的表現，而不是考慮市場價值的變化。</p>
<p>隨着伯克希爾不斷發展其控制的企業並進行明智的收購，其運營收益也在不斷複合增長。保險承保和投資收入是運營收益的主要驅動因素。承保收益隨着收取的保費超過支付的索賠而增長，而投資收入則代表伯克希爾從未支付索賠的保費總額中獲得的回報。</p>
<p>鑑於伯克希爾保險業務的規模和運營卓越，加上其其他控制的企業，該公司在未來穩步增長運營收益的道路上非常明確。</p>
<p>如前所述，伯克希爾還擁有鉅額現金儲備，可以用於進行戰略收購、加速控制企業的增長或以誘人的價格購買股票。</p>
<p>另一個購買和持有伯克希爾的理由是，在新首席執行官格雷格·阿貝爾的領導下，公司可能會支付股息。巴菲特長期以來反對支付股息，因為他認為伯克希爾通過再投資利潤而不是通過股息分配來為股東創造更好的回報。而且考慮到伯克希爾股票的長期表現，他的觀點是正確的。但如果伯克希爾繼續持有大量現金而不回購股票，那麼支付股息對公司來説可能是合理的。</p>
<h2>出於正確的理由購買伯克希爾</h2>
<p>當伯克希爾還是一家較小的公司時，巴菲特能夠發揮他的投資才能和創造力，通過收購 Geico 和以極低的價格購買可口可樂和美國運通等舉措對業務產生重大影響。但如今，伯克希爾規模龐大，購買隱藏的、被低估的公司不會影響其股票表現。因此，伯克希爾在過去 10 年的大規模收購都是顯而易見的機會——如蘋果。隨着巴菲特將接力棒傳給阿貝爾，投資者應更多關注伯克希爾的運營優勢，而不是將其視為股票挑選的對沖基金。</p>
<p>總的來説，如果你喜歡伯克希爾所擁有的資產、其現金狀況以及競爭優勢，那麼伯克希爾是一個很好的投資選擇。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

南方兩倍做多伯克希爾

<p>自沃倫·巴菲特宣佈退休以來，伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票下跌了 10%，表現不及標準普爾 500 指數。儘管如此，分析師們認為此次拋售是長期投資者的買入機會。伯克希爾強大的投資組合和創紀錄的現金儲備使其成為防禦性股票。公司的運營收益歷史上一直在複合增長，並且在新任首席執行官格雷格·阿貝爾的領導下，分紅潛力也值得期待。投資者被鼓勵關注公司的基本面，而不是短期市場波動</p>

<p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.98%)(BRK.B 0.98%) stock is down big since Warren Buffett announced that he would be stepping down as chief executive officer (but remain chairman) by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A 0.98%)(BRK.B 0.98%) 的股票自沃倫·巴菲特宣佈他將在年底辭去首席執行官職務（但仍將擔任董事長）以來大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Here's why the sell-off is a buying opportunity for investors looking for an ultra-reliable blue chip stock to hold for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是為什麼此次拋售對尋求長期持有超可靠藍籌股的投資者來説是一個買入機會。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLXBpZWNlLW9mLXBhcGVyLXNpdHMtYXQtYS1kZXNrLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItbW9uaXRvci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823639%2Fa-person-holding-a-piece-of-paper-sits-at-a-desk-in-front-of-a-computer-monitor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Growth stocks are back in style</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>成長股重新迴歸</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway stock was on a tear to start the year -- hitting an all-time high on May 2 -- the day before its annual shareholder meeting in Omaha.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票在年初表現強勁——在 5 月 2 日創下歷史新高——就在其在奧馬哈的年度股東大會前一天。</p>
</div><p>But between that meeting and June 30, Berkshire fell 10%, compared to a 9.1% gain in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.83%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在那次會議和 6 月 30 日之間，伯克希爾的股價下跌了 10%，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 0.83%) 則上漲了 9.1%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13f7bb07bafd4e14fb0c158532730dd8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13f7bb07bafd4e14fb0c158532730dd8.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.B 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>That's a significant underperformance in a short period, to which Berkshire investors aren't accustomed. The stock has trounced the S&amp;P 500 over the long term, with a 19.9% compounded annual gain between 1965 and 2024, compared to 10.4% for the index with dividends reinvested.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短時間內，這一顯著的表現不佳是伯克希爾投資者所不習慣的。長期以來，該股票的表現超過了標準普爾 500 指數，從 1965 年到 2024 年，年均複合增長率為 19.9%，而該指數（包括再投資的股息）為 10.4%。</p>
</div><p>Part of the reason Berkshire has been lagging the S&amp;P 500 is changing investment sentiment. When tariff turmoil was rippling through markets, some investors gravitated toward companies with business models that could hold up well even if these tensions escalated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾落後於標準普爾 500 指數的部分原因是投資情緒的變化。當關税動盪在市場上蔓延時，一些投資者傾向於選擇那些即使在這些緊張局勢升級時也能保持良好表現的公司。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire is an ultra-safe stock to own regardless of the market cycle. This is because of its portfolio of controlled assets -- from its insurance businesses to ownership of the BNSF railroad, utility giant Berkshire Hathaway Energy, manufacturing assets, services and retailing businesses, and its positions in public companies like <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>American Express</strong>, <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>, and more. But Berkshire has been extra cautious lately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論市場週期如何，伯克希爾都是一隻超安全的股票。這是因為它擁有的資產組合——從保險業務到 BNSF 鐵路、能源巨頭伯克希爾哈撒韋能源、製造資產、服務和零售業務，以及在 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>美國運通</strong>、<strong>可口可樂</strong> 等公共公司的持股。但最近，伯克希爾變得更加謹慎。</p>
</div><p>In its first-quarter 2025 financial filings, Berkshire revealed a record $348 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term Treasury bills. During the shareholder meeting, Buffett said that Berkshire was holding more Treasury bills than he would like, but stressed the importance of being patient and waiting for excellent investment opportunities. In this vein, Berkshire has become even more of a defensive stock, so it makes sense that investors gravitated toward it when volatility was spiking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年第一季度的財務報告中，伯克希爾披露了創紀錄的 3480 億美元現金、現金等價物和短期國債。在股東大會上，巴菲特表示，伯克希爾持有的國債超過了他所希望的，但強調了耐心和等待優秀投資機會的重要性。在這種情況下，伯克希爾變得更加防禦性，因此在波動性激增時，投資者傾向於選擇它。</p>
</div><p>The news that Buffett is stepping down as CEO, combined with investors looking for riskier, higher-potential-reward stocks and less defensive names, may explain why Berkshire has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by so much over the last two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特辭去首席執行官職務的消息，加上投資者尋求風險更高、潛在回報更大的股票以及較少防禦性的股票，可能解釋了為什麼伯克希爾在過去兩個月中表現如此不佳。</p>
</div><h2>Berkshire is chock-full of compounding potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希爾充滿複合潛力</h2>
</div><p>As a long-term investor, it's important to filter out the noise of market movements and understand that stock prices can do all sorts of things in the near term that have little to do with a long-term investment thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為長期投資者，重要的是要過濾市場波動的噪音，並理解股票價格在短期內可能會做出各種與長期投資理論無關的變化。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this year, Berkshire's stock price was driven by some investors rotating out of mega-cap growth stocks and into value stocks. But now, the opposite is happening, as some value stocks like Berkshire are selling off or underperforming the S&amp;P 500 while mega-cap growth stocks like <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong> are hitting all-time highs. It's not that Nvidia's and Microsoft's business models have changed between now and a few months ago. Rather, investors are willing to pay a premium price for future earnings growth, because the risk of tariffs slowing that growth has gone down considerably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年早些時候，伯克希爾的股價受到一些投資者從大型成長股轉向價值股的推動。但現在，情況正好相反，一些價值股如伯克希爾正在拋售或表現不佳，而大型成長股如 <strong>英偉達</strong> 和 <strong>微軟</strong> 則創下歷史新高。這並不是説英偉達和微軟的商業模式在幾個月前和現在發生了變化。相反，投資者願意為未來的盈利增長支付溢價，因為關税減緩這一增長的風險大大降低。</p>
</div><p>Instead of focusing on which stocks are in and out of favor, a better approach is to identify excellent businesses and then decide if the price is reasonable. Buffett's preferred way to value Berkshire is by its operating earnings, which reflect how the businesses it owns are performing, rather than accounting for changes in market values.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與其關注哪些股票受歡迎或不受歡迎，不如更好地識別優秀的企業，然後判斷價格是否合理。巴菲特評估伯克希爾的首選方式是通過其運營收益，這反映了其擁有的企業的表現，而不是考慮市場價值的變化。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's operating earnings have compounded over time as it has grown its controlled businesses and made savvy acquisitions. Insurance underwriting and investment income have been massive drivers of operating earnings. Underwriting earnings grow as premiums collected outpace claims paid, and investment income represents the return Berkshire gets on the sum of premiums collected that haven't been paid out in claims.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着伯克希爾不斷發展其控制的企業並進行明智的收購，其運營收益也在不斷複合增長。保險承保和投資收入是運營收益的主要驅動因素。承保收益隨着收取的保費超過支付的索賠而增長，而投資收入則代表伯克希爾從未支付索賠的保費總額中獲得的回報。</p>
</div><p>Given the size and operational excellence of Berkshire's insurance businesses, paired with its other controlled businesses, the company has a clear path toward steadily growing operating earnings over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於伯克希爾保險業務的規模和運營卓越，加上其其他控制的企業，該公司在未來穩步增長運營收益的道路上非常明確。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned, Berkshire also has a massive cash position that it can use to make a strategic acquisition, accelerate growth in a controlled business, or buy shares in stocks at compelling prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，伯克希爾還擁有鉅額現金儲備，可以用於進行戰略收購、加速控制企業的增長或以誘人的價格購買股票。</p>
</div><p>Another reason to buy and hold Berkshire is the potential for the company to pay dividends under its new CEO, Greg Abel. Buffett has long been against the idea of paying dividends, because he believes that Berkshire can earn a better return for shareholders by reinvesting profits rather than passing them along through dividends. And he's been right, given the long-term performance of Berkshire stock. But if Berkshire continues to hold a ton of cash and not buy back stock, it could make sense for the company to pay a dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個購買和持有伯克希爾的理由是，在新首席執行官格雷格·阿貝爾的領導下，公司可能會支付股息。巴菲特長期以來反對支付股息，因為他認為伯克希爾通過再投資利潤而不是通過股息分配來為股東創造更好的回報。而且考慮到伯克希爾股票的長期表現，他的觀點是正確的。但如果伯克希爾繼續持有大量現金而不回購股票，那麼支付股息對公司來説可能是合理的。</p>
</div><h2>Buying Berkshire for the right reasons</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>出於正確的理由購買伯克希爾</h2>
</div><p>When Berkshire was a smaller company, Buffett was able to flex his investing prowess and creativity to have a meaningful effect on the business through moves like acquiring Geico and buying Coca-Cola and American Express at dirt cheap prices. But today, Berkshire is so big that buying hidden-gem, undervalued companies wouldn't affect its stock performance. So Berkshire's big buys over the last 10 years have been opportunities hiding in plain sight -- like Apple. And with Buffett passing the torch to Abel, investors should focus more on Berkshire's operational advantages, rather than treating the company like a stock-picking hedge fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當伯克希爾還是一家較小的公司時，巴菲特能夠發揮他的投資才能和創造力，通過收購 Geico 和以極低的價格購買可口可樂和美國運通等舉措對業務產生重大影響。但如今，伯克希爾規模龐大，購買隱藏的、被低估的公司不會影響其股票表現。因此，伯克希爾在過去 10 年的大規模收購都是顯而易見的機會——如蘋果。隨着巴菲特將接力棒傳給阿貝爾，投資者應更多關注伯克希爾的運營優勢，而不是將其視為股票挑選的對沖基金。</p>
</div><p>All told, Berkshire is a great buy if you like the assets it owns, its cash position, and its competitive advantages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總的來説，如果你喜歡伯克希爾所擁有的資產、其現金狀況以及競爭優勢，那麼伯克希爾是一個很好的投資選擇。</p>
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Should You Buy Berkshire Hathaway Stock, Even Though It's Down 10% Since Warren Buffett Announced Retiring as CEO?

- 伯克希爾哈撒韋股價因巴菲特將辭任 CEO 而下跌 10%。  
- 該公司持有 3480 億美元現金，顯示出其防禦性投資策略。  
- 長期來看，伯克希爾的運營收益有望持續增長，適合長期投資。

儘管沃倫·巴菲特宣佈退休擔任 CEO 後伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票已經下跌了 10%，你是否應該考慮購買伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票？