<p><strong>Lemonade</strong>(LMND 0.88%) 自上市以來經歷了爆炸式增長，其股價在過去一年中上漲了超過 160%。這家保險科技公司取得了一些重大進展，儘管仍然存在風險。讓我們看看五年後它可能會在哪裏，以及現在是否是購買 Lemonade 股票的好時機。</p>
<h2>Lemonade 目前的狀況</h2>
<p>截至七月，Lemonade 已經成立 10 年，這十年相當不平凡。該公司利用人工智能 (AI) 顛覆傳統保險，為保單持有人提供更好的產品。它在整個業務中使用數字化流程和人工智能，包括通過聊天機器人來引導客户和評估索賠。雖然如今許多公司都在使用人工智能，這聽起來可能不那麼令人印象深刻，但 Lemonade 多年來一直在這樣做。它依賴數據、機器學習和不斷改進的算法來確保準確性，減少人工干預，為普通保單持有人消除了許多麻煩和困擾。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM1MDkva2lkcy13aXRoLWEtbGVtb25hZGUtc3RhbmQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM1MDkva2lkcy13aXRoLWEtbGVtb25hZGUtc3RhbmQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>這被證明是一種受歡迎的替代方案，Lemonade 正以快速的速度吸引客户。截至 2025 年第一季度末，Lemonade 擁有超過 250 萬客户，同比增長 21%。每位客户的保費也在增加，第一季度同比增長 4%，達到 396 美元。綜合來看，這導致了 Lemonade 的在保保費 (IFP) 增加，這是其首選的收入指標。第一季度首次超過 10 億美元，同比增長 27%。自上市以來，Lemonade 一直報告強勁增長，但在過去六個季度中加速增長。</p>
<p>與許多年輕公司一樣，Lemonade 目前尚未盈利。作為一家保險公司，它用超越收入和淨收入的指標來衡量其進展和成功。對於保險公司來説，最關鍵的盈利能力指標之一是損失率，即它收取的保費與支付的保單索賠之間的比例，而 Lemonade 在這方面一直在掙扎。然而，最近它似乎朝着正確的方向發展，損失率正在下降。第一季度的損失率為 78%，比去年下降了一個百分點，過去 12 個月的損失率為 73%，與 2024 年第四季度持平，低於公司的短期目標 75%。這一切都很好。</p>
<p>這一令人難以置信的表現讓市場對持續的淨虧損的情緒有所好轉。第一季度的淨虧損為 6200 萬美元，較去年同期的 4700 萬美元更糟。</p>
<h2>為未來而建設</h2>
<p>投資 Lemonade 的理念和股票實際上是對其顛覆傳統保險能力的押注。首席執行官 Dan Schreiber 認為這是理所當然的事情，它將會發生，Lemonade 的業務超越其傳統競爭對手只是時間問題。</p>
<p>Schreiber 指出，儘管現在人們普遍認為所有保險公司都在使用人工智能，但實際上並非如此。許多大型傳統巨頭採取的是觀望態度，全面切換到 Lemonade 所擁有的所有部分相互連接和溝通的數字化基礎並不簡單。這些公司仍然在很大程度上依賴外部銷售代理，後者帶來了 62% 的財產和意外險保費，這使得 Lemonade 在這場競爭中佔據了優勢。</p>
<p>Schreiber 認為，公司的人工智能技術在未來五到十年將變得更加強大，他解釋説</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在本十年結束之前，那些以人工智能的速度前進的公司會發現，2025 年花費 100 萬美元購買一支工程團隊的力量，到 2030 年將相當於 90,000 名工程師。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>隨着這一變化的發生，Lemonade 處於領先競爭對手的良好位置。這也將有助於它實現盈利的目標。許多公司已經在重組其勞動力，以便通過人工智能完成更多工作。</p>
<p>如今，Lemonade 仍處於擴張階段，花費大量資金進行營銷以吸引更多客户。預計最終，這些客户帶來的收入將超過公司為獲取他們而花費的資金。由於依賴人工智能系統，其其他運營成本保持不變，並且由於這是保險，只要 Lemonade 能夠給客户留下深刻印象並留住他們，每位新客户都具有終身價值，因為他們會續保。</p>
<h2>現在是購買的時機嗎？</h2>
<p>管理層預計到 2026 年底將報告正的調整後息税折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA)。這將是一個里程碑，但華爾街仍然預計明年的每股淨虧損為 1.97 美元。管理層的目標是在 2027 年及以後實現正的淨收入。</p>
<p>如果事情按這個方向發展，股東將會受益。即使在此過程中出現波折，五年後，Lemonade 看起來將會更大且盈利，其股票也應該反映這一點。</p>

LMND

<p>Lemonade (LMND) 自上市以來經歷了顯著增長，過去一年股價上漲超過 160%。這家以人工智能驅動的保險公司客户數量已超過 250 萬，並實現了超過 10 億美元的有效保費。儘管在第一季度報告了 6200 萬美元的淨虧損，但其虧損率正在改善。首席執行官 Dan Schreiber 認為，隨着人工智能技術的進步，Lemonade 將超越傳統保險公司。管理層的目標是到 2026 年實現正的調整後 EBITDA，到 2027 年實現淨利潤，這使其成為一個潛在的投資機會</p>

<p><strong>Lemonade</strong>(LMND 0.88%) has experienced explosive growth since going public, and its stock is climbing, up more than 160% during the past year. The insurance technology company has made some serious progress, although there are still risks. Let's see where it might be five years from now and whether it's a good time to buy Lemonade stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Lemonade</strong>(LMND 0.88%) 自上市以來經歷了爆炸式增長，其股價在過去一年中上漲了超過 160%。這家保險科技公司取得了一些重大進展，儘管仍然存在風險。讓我們看看五年後它可能會在哪裏，以及現在是否是購買 Lemonade 股票的好時機。</p>
</div><h2>Where Lemonade is now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lemonade 目前的狀況</h2>
</div><p>Lemonade is 10 years old as of July, and it's been quite a decade. The company uses artificial intelligence (AI) to disrupt traditional insurance and offer a better product for policy holders. It was built using digital processes and AI throughout its business, including having chatbots onboard customers and assess claims. That may not sound so impressive today, as AI becomes the norm for many companies, but Lemonade has been doing this for years. It relies on data, machine learning, and continually improving algorithms to get things right, cutting out human intervention and lots of headaches and hassle for the average policyholder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至七月，Lemonade 已經成立 10 年，這十年相當不平凡。該公司利用人工智能 (AI) 顛覆傳統保險，為保單持有人提供更好的產品。它在整個業務中使用數字化流程和人工智能，包括通過聊天機器人來引導客户和評估索賠。雖然如今許多公司都在使用人工智能，這聽起來可能不那麼令人印象深刻，但 Lemonade 多年來一直在這樣做。它依賴數據、機器學習和不斷改進的算法來確保準確性，減少人工干預，為普通保單持有人消除了許多麻煩和困擾。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM1MDkva2lkcy13aXRoLWEtbGVtb25hZGUtc3RhbmQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823509%2Fkids-with-a-lemonade-stand.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>This is proving to be a popular alternative, and Lemonade is attracting customers at a rapid pace. It had more than 2.5 million customers as of the end of the 2025 first quarter, a 21% year-over-year increase. The premium per customer is also increasing, up 4% year over year in Q1 to $396. Together, that's leading to increased in-force premium (IFP), Lemonade's preferred top-line metric. It surpassed $1 billion in Q1 for the first time, up 27% from last year. Lemonade has been reporting strong growth since it went public, but it has accelerated the past six quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這被證明是一種受歡迎的替代方案，Lemonade 正以快速的速度吸引客户。截至 2025 年第一季度末，Lemonade 擁有超過 250 萬客户，同比增長 21%。每位客户的保費也在增加，第一季度同比增長 4%，達到 396 美元。綜合來看，這導致了 Lemonade 的在保保費 (IFP) 增加，這是其首選的收入指標。第一季度首次超過 10 億美元，同比增長 27%。自上市以來，Lemonade 一直報告強勁增長，但在過去六個季度中加速增長。</p>
</div><p>As with many young companies, Lemonade isn't profitable. As an insurance company, it measures its progress and success with metrics beyond revenue and net income. One of the most crucial profitability metrics for an insurance company is the loss ratio, or how much it collects in premiums versus paying policy claims, and Lemonade has been struggling here. Recently, however, it looks like it's going in the right direction, which is down. The Q1 loss ratio was 78%, down one percentage point from last year, and the trailing-12-month loss ratio was 73%, in line with 2024's Q4 and below the company's short-term target of 75%. All good there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與許多年輕公司一樣，Lemonade 目前尚未盈利。作為一家保險公司，它用超越收入和淨收入的指標來衡量其進展和成功。對於保險公司來説，最關鍵的盈利能力指標之一是損失率，即它收取的保費與支付的保單索賠之間的比例，而 Lemonade 在這方面一直在掙扎。然而，最近它似乎朝着正確的方向發展，損失率正在下降。第一季度的損失率為 78%，比去年下降了一個百分點，過去 12 個月的損失率為 73%，與 2024 年第四季度持平，低於公司的短期目標 75%。這一切都很好。</p>
</div><p>This incredible performance has been lightening the market's mood about the continued net losses. The net loss was $62 million in Q1, worse than $47 million a year earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一令人難以置信的表現讓市場對持續的淨虧損的情緒有所好轉。第一季度的淨虧損為 6200 萬美元，較去年同期的 4700 萬美元更糟。</p>
</div><h2>Building for the future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為未來而建設</h2>
</div><p>Buying into Lemonade's thesis and stock is really a bet on its ability to disrupt traditional insurance. Chief Executive Officer Dan Schreiber sees that as a given and that it will happen, and it's just a matter of time before Lemonade's business outperforms its legacy competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資 Lemonade 的理念和股票實際上是對其顛覆傳統保險能力的押注。首席執行官 Dan Schreiber 認為這是理所當然的事情，它將會發生，Lemonade 的業務超越其傳統競爭對手只是時間問題。</p>
</div><p>Schreiber notes that, although it's perceived that all insurance companies are using AI today, that's not actually the case. Many of the large, traditional giants are taking a wait-and-see approach, and it's not so simple to switch over all of their systems to the kind of digital substrate where all parts connect and communicate that Lemonade has. Those companies still heavily rely on outside sales agents, who bring in 62% of all property and casualty premiums, giving Lemonade a leg up in this game.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Schreiber 指出，儘管現在人們普遍認為所有保險公司都在使用人工智能，但實際上並非如此。許多大型傳統巨頭採取的是觀望態度，全面切換到 Lemonade 所擁有的所有部分相互連接和溝通的數字化基礎並不簡單。這些公司仍然在很大程度上依賴外部銷售代理，後者帶來了 62% 的財產和意外險保費，這使得 Lemonade 在這場競爭中佔據了優勢。</p>
</div><p>Schreiber thinks that the company's AI technology will be even more potent in the next five to 10 years, and he explains that</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Schreiber 認為，公司的人工智能技術在未來五到十年將變得更加強大，他解釋説</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>before the decade is out, those that are moving at the pace of AI will find that the same $1 million that buys one squad's worth of engineering firepower in 2025 will deliver the equivalent of 90,000 engineers in 2030.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在本十年結束之前，那些以人工智能的速度前進的公司會發現，2025 年花費 100 萬美元購買一支工程團隊的力量，到 2030 年將相當於 90,000 名工程師。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Lemonade is well positioned to jump ahead of the competition as that happens. It will also help it on its journey to profitability. Many companies are already restructuring their workforces as they get more done with AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着這一變化的發生，Lemonade 處於領先競爭對手的良好位置。這也將有助於它實現盈利的目標。許多公司已經在重組其勞動力，以便通過人工智能完成更多工作。</p>
</div><p>Today, Lemonade is still in scale mode, spending a lot on marketing to grab more customers. The expectation is that eventually, the revenue from these customers will be more than the money the company is spending on getting them. Its other operational costs have remained constant due to its reliance on AI systems, and because this is insurance, each new customer has lifetime value as they renew their policies, so long as Lemonade can impress them and keep them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，Lemonade 仍處於擴張階段，花費大量資金進行營銷以吸引更多客户。預計最終，這些客户帶來的收入將超過公司為獲取他們而花費的資金。由於依賴人工智能系統，其其他運營成本保持不變，並且由於這是保險，只要 Lemonade 能夠給客户留下深刻印象並留住他們，每位新客户都具有終身價值，因為他們會續保。</p>
</div><h2>Is now the time to buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是購買的時機嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Management expects to report positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by the end of 2026. That would be a milestone, but Wall Street is still expecting a net loss of $1.97 per share next year. Management is shooting for positive net income by the end of 2027 and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層預計到 2026 年底將報告正的調整後息税折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA)。這將是一個里程碑，但華爾街仍然預計明年的每股淨虧損為 1.97 美元。管理層的目標是在 2027 年及以後實現正的淨收入。</p>
</div><p>If that's the way things go, shareholders are in for a treat. Even if there are hiccups along the way, it does look like five years from now, Lemonade will be bigger and profitable, and its stock should reflect that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果事情按這個方向發展，股東將會受益。即使在此過程中出現波折，五年後，Lemonade 看起來將會更大且盈利，其股票也應該反映這一點。</p>
</div>

五年後 Lemonade 的股票將會如何表現？