<p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 0.51%)(GOOGL 0.54%) 在過去一年中一直是市場上最被厭惡的大型科技股之一。儘管其業績持續穩健，但市場對字母表當前的業務並不尊重，原因在於對其未來可能發生的事情的恐懼。主要問題圍繞着字母表的傳統業務（谷歌搜索）在生成性人工智能崛起的情況下將如何表現。</p><p>投資者假設谷歌搜索的收入將會暴跌，從而拖累字母表的股票。然而，這並沒有發生，我對此表示懷疑。我認為字母表可以通過幾個因素的結合在未來兩年內為股東帶來鉅額回報。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0b45e5972b352226d44339bad8a63ae0?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0b45e5972b352226d44339bad8a63ae0"/></figure><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="uruqy146">字母表的股票遠低於同行的價格</h2><p>字母表的前瞻市盈率（P/E）顯著低於 “七大巨頭” 中的其他成員（<strong>特斯拉</strong> 已從此圖表中移除，因為其前瞻市盈率超過 160 倍）。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4d9be4094e6112b9e680748f1d84376b?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="524" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4d9be4094e6112b9e680748f1d84376b"/></figure><p>GOOGL 前瞻市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p><p>現在，一些股票確實值得溢價估值，例如 <strong>英偉達</strong>，因為它的收入和盈利以快速的速度增長。然而，我認為其他公司，如 <strong>微軟</strong> 和 <strong>蘋果</strong>，由於其增長率，幾乎不值得如此高的溢價。</p><p>在第一季度，字母表的收入和每股收益（EPS）增長率都相當強勁（我在此圖表中省略了英偉達，因為其快速增長扭曲了數據）。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/1bcf47ad1d7f74b08cdd9828bec0f642?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="644" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/1bcf47ad1d7f74b08cdd9828bec0f642"/></figure><p>GOOGL 每季度營業收入（同比增長）數據來源於 YCharts</p><p>字母表的收入增長處於中游，但更接近第二名而非第四名。此外，其每股收益增長是五家公司中第二好的。</p><p>如果我僅向你展示這些信息，你會假設字母表的估值倍數應該處於該組的中高端。然而，它的交易價格約為該組第二便宜成員 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的 50% 折扣。</p><p>那麼，如果字母表獲得一個合理的倍數，會發生什麼呢？</p><h2 id="e28u2v7et">如果字母表的估值上升到平均水平，可能會帶來鉅額收益</h2><p>分析中的其餘四家公司（微軟、蘋果、Meta Platforms 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>）的前瞻市盈率平均為 31.3 倍。如果市場條件保持不變，字母表的市盈率上升到 31.3 倍以達到平均估值，股票將上漲 68%。</p><p>現在，這 68% 並不包括字母表在未來幾年內將經歷的任何增長；這只是為了達到與同行相同的估值水平。這將是一個艱鉅的任務，因為市場似乎確信字母表將面臨一些挑戰。然而，我認為它低估了谷歌的持久力，以及普通人將非常滿意地使用谷歌的人工智能搜索概述來構建他們的人工智能模型。這應該使谷歌保持在其競爭的頂端，並使其在可預見的未來繼續以穩定的兩位數速度增長收入。</p><p>市場可能需要幾年時間才能對字母表股票恢復理智，但如果這樣做，它將顯著超越表現。作為另一個有趣的事實，如果字母表在今天的價格下被賦予 31.3 倍的前瞻市盈率，它將與微軟並列成為全球市值第二大的公司。</p><p>字母表似乎是今天值得購買的頂級大型科技公司之一。它的業績與同行一樣出色（如果不是更好），但交易價格卻大幅折扣。如果字母表能夠繼續發佈強勁的業績，市場最終會意識到字母表值得與同行享有相同的溢價。通過今天的購買，你可以利用這一大幅折扣，並在字母表的估值上升以匹配同行時享受顯著的回報。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>Alphabet 的股票目前相較於其同行被低估，儘管其收入和盈利增長強勁，但交易價格仍顯著折扣。分析師預測，如果 Alphabet 的估值與其競爭對手的平均水平相符，股票可能上漲 68%。這一潛在增長並未考慮未來的盈利增長，這表明 Alphabet 在未來兩年內可能會帶來可觀的回報。市場可能低估了 Alphabet 的韌性及其在以人工智能驅動的搜索領域中保持強大地位的能力</p>

<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.51%)(GOOGL 0.54%) has been one of the most hated big tech stocks in the market over the past year. Despite posting consistently solid results, the market doesn't respect Alphabet's current business out of fear of what <em>could</em> happen to it. The primary question revolves around how Alphabet's legacy business (Google Search) will fare with the rise of generative AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 0.51%)(GOOGL 0.54%) 在過去一年中一直是市場上最被厭惡的大型科技股之一。儘管其業績持續穩健，但市場對字母表當前的業務並不尊重，原因在於對其未來可能發生的事情的恐懼。主要問題圍繞着字母表的傳統業務（谷歌搜索）在生成性人工智能崛起的情況下將如何表現。</p>
</div><p>Investors are assuming that Google Search revenue will tumble, taking Alphabet's stock with it. However, that hasn't happened, and I doubt it will. I think Alphabet can deliver shareholders monster returns over the next two years through a combination of a few factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者假設谷歌搜索的收入將會暴跌，從而拖累字母表的股票。然而，這並沒有發生，我對此表示懷疑。我認為字母表可以通過幾個因素的結合在未來兩年內為股東帶來鉅額回報。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5NzQvcGVyc29uLWV4YW1pbmluZy1hLWdyYXBoLW9uLXRoZWlyLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822974%2Fperson-examining-a-graph-on-their-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet's stock is far cheaper than its peers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>字母表的股票遠低於同行的價格</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet trades at a significant discount to other members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; cohort on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) basis ( <strong>Tesla</strong> has been removed from this chart because it trades for more than 160 times forward earnings).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表的前瞻市盈率（P/E）顯著低於 “七大巨頭” 中的其他成員（<strong>特斯拉</strong> 已從此圖表中移除，因為其前瞻市盈率超過 160 倍）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b6f56a06e2c7b9ef53f621a6ed9738f2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b6f56a06e2c7b9ef53f621a6ed9738f2.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 前瞻市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Now, some stocks deserve a premium valuation, such as <strong>Nvidia</strong>, because it is growing its revenue and earnings at a rapid pace. However, I'd argue that other companies, like <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Apple</strong>, don't deserve nearly the premium due to their growth rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，一些股票確實值得溢價估值，例如 <strong>英偉達</strong>，因為它的收入和盈利以快速的速度增長。然而，我認為其他公司，如 <strong>微軟</strong> 和 <strong>蘋果</strong>，由於其增長率，幾乎不值得如此高的溢價。</p>
</div><p>During the first quarter, Alphabet's growth rates, both in terms of revenue and earnings per share (EPS), were quite strong (I omitted Nvidia from this chart due to its rapid growth skewing the data).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，字母表的收入和每股收益（EPS）增長率都相當強勁（我在此圖表中省略了英偉達，因為其快速增長扭曲了數據）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ac2c97303a3baae4753474f1bf712e82.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ac2c97303a3baae4753474f1bf712e82.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 每季度營業收入（同比增長）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Alphabet's revenue growth was in the middle of the pack, but much closer to second place than it was fourth place. Additionally, its EPS growth was the second-best of the five companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表的收入增長處於中游，但更接近第二名而非第四名。此外，其每股收益增長是五家公司中第二好的。</p>
</div><p>If I presented you with this information alone, you'd assume that the multiple Alphabet assigned should be in the middle to high end of this cohort's range. However, it trades at about a 50% discount to the second-cheapest member of the cohort, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我僅向你展示這些信息，你會假設字母表的估值倍數應該處於該組的中高端。然而，它的交易價格約為該組第二便宜成員 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的 50% 折扣。</p>
</div><p>So, what could happen if Alphabet receives a respectable multiple?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，如果字母表獲得一個合理的倍數，會發生什麼呢？</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet could provide monster gains if it rises to an average valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果字母表的估值上升到平均水平，可能會帶來鉅額收益</h2>
</div><p>The remaining four companies in the analysis (Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, and <strong>Amazon</strong>) trade for an average of 31.3 times forward earnings. Should market conditions remain the same and Alphabet climb to 31.3 times forward earnings to be at the average valuation, the stock would rise by 68%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析中的其餘四家公司（微軟、蘋果、Meta Platforms 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>）的前瞻市盈率平均為 31.3 倍。如果市場條件保持不變，字母表的市盈率上升到 31.3 倍以達到平均估值，股票將上漲 68%。</p>
</div><p>Now, that 68% doesn't include any growth that Alphabet will experience over the next few years; that's just for reaching the same valuation level as its peers. This will be a tall task to accomplish, as the market appears to be convinced that Alphabet will face some challenges ahead. However, I think it's underestimating the staying power that Google has and how the average person will be perfectly content using Google's AI search overviews for their AI model. This should keep Google at the top of its game and allow it to continue growing its revenue at a steady double-digit pace for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，這 68% 並不包括字母表在未來幾年內將經歷的任何增長；這只是為了達到與同行相同的估值水平。這將是一個艱鉅的任務，因為市場似乎確信字母表將面臨一些挑戰。然而，我認為它低估了谷歌的持久力，以及普通人將非常滿意地使用谷歌的人工智能搜索概述來構建他們的人工智能模型。這應該使谷歌保持在其競爭的頂端，並使其在可預見的未來繼續以穩定的兩位數速度增長收入。</p>
</div><p>It may take a few years for the market to come to its senses regarding Alphabet stock, but it will be a significant outperformer if it does. As another fun fact, if Alphabet were assigned a 31.3 times forward earnings multiple at today's prices, it would be tied with Microsoft as the second-largest company in the world by market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場可能需要幾年時間才能對字母表股票恢復理智，但如果這樣做，它將顯著超越表現。作為另一個有趣的事實，如果字母表在今天的價格下被賦予 31.3 倍的前瞻市盈率，它將與微軟並列成為全球市值第二大的公司。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet appears to be one of the top big tech companies to buy today. It's posting just as good as results (if not better) than its peers, yet trades at a huge discount. If Alphabet can continue posting strong results, the market will eventually come around to see that Alphabet is worthy of the same premium as its peers. By buying today, you can take advantage of a large discount and enjoy significant returns as Alphabet's valuation rises to match that of its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表似乎是今天值得購買的頂級大型科技公司之一。它的業績與同行一樣出色（如果不是更好），但交易價格卻大幅折扣。如果字母表能夠繼續發佈強勁的業績，市場最終會意識到字母表值得與同行享有相同的溢價。通過今天的購買，你可以利用這一大幅折扣，並在字母表的估值上升以匹配同行時享受顯著的回報。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Alphabet's Stock Will Deliver Monster Performance Over the Next 2 Years

- Alphabet 股票在市場上被低估，儘管業績穩健。  
- 如果其市盈率回升至同行平均水平，股價可能上漲 68%。  
- 投資者可藉此機會獲取顯著回報。  

預測：Alphabet 的股票將在未來兩年內實現強勁表現