<p>2024 年 12 月 26 日，<strong>蘋果</strong> 的市值突破了 3.9 萬億美元，距離成為全球首家市值達到 4 萬億美元的公司僅有 2%。但它並沒有做到。蘋果在最近幾周有所回升，但年初至今仍大幅下跌，而 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) 和 <strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT 1.58%) 則創下了新的歷史高點。</p><p>以下是為什麼英偉達可能成為首家市值超過 4 萬億美元的公司的原因，以及英偉達和微軟必須做些什麼才能繼續上漲，以及這兩隻成長股現在是否值得購買。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f12f336883e723afd28aefa8f1de440c?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f12f336883e723afd28aefa8f1de440c"/></figure><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="wtufwyicg">新的領跑者</h2><p>在不到三年的時間裏，英偉達的市值從數十億躍升至數萬億。現在，它是距離 4 萬億美元最近的公司——截至 7 月 3 日市場收盤，距離僅超過 3%。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/15d4f312eaa82201f293cdcf103b55c4?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="538" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/15d4f312eaa82201f293cdcf103b55c4"/></figure><p>英偉達市值數據來源於 YCharts。</p><p>英偉達可能會在微軟之前達到 4 萬億美元的市值，原因在於它離這一門檻更近，並且其股票波動性更大。英偉達年初至今上漲超過 18%，但在 4 月初的關税引發的拋售潮中，年初至今下跌約 30%。因此，股票上漲幾個百分點以使其市值超過 4 萬億美元並不不合理。</p><p>更好的問題不是英偉達或微軟是否會達到 4 萬億美元的市值，而是每家公司必須做些什麼才能證明這一估值是合理的。</p><h2 id="veosmr0dr">由盈利驅動的反彈</h2><p>股票價格上漲的兩個主要驅動因素是盈利增長和投資者情緒。如果盈利在增長，投資者可能會願意以更高的價格購買公司的股票。但如果投資者預期盈利增長的速度會加快，他們可能會願意給予股票溢價估值。</p><p>英偉達和微軟近年來表現如此強勁，因為它們的盈利在增長，且投資者願意為這些公司的股票支付相對於其盈利的溢價。英偉達的年淨收入從不足 100 億美元飆升至驚人的 768 億美元，僅用了幾年時間。微軟在過去五年中將其淨收入翻了一番，其股價也翻了一番以上。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b59939123403d6a421bf9faf5037450e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="573" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b59939123403d6a421bf9faf5037450e"/></figure><p>英偉達數據來源於 YCharts。</p><p>為了繼續成為良好的投資，英偉達和微軟都必須證明其盈利增長是可持續的，而不是暫時的。</p><h2 id="megei89o">英偉達的估值仍然合理</h2><p>英偉達從大科技公司在人工智能（AI）上的快速支出中受益匪淺。英偉達在為數據中心提供高性能圖形處理單元（GPU）和企業相關的 AI 解決方案方面佔據主導市場份額。</p><p>由於供應有限和需求旺盛，英偉達可以為其 AI 產品收取高價，這使其能夠將超過一半的銷售額轉化為純利潤。而且，由於英偉達的客户是一些全球最具財務實力的大型公司（如微軟），因此英偉達知道其客户能夠在 AI 上花費大量資金。</p><p>然而，如果關鍵的英偉達客户面臨挑戰，或者如果行業普遍放緩，競爭出現並侵蝕英偉達的利潤率，情況就會有所不同。現在購買英偉達是對該公司即使在利潤率逐漸下降的情況下仍能繼續增長其盈利的押注。</p><p>好消息是，英偉達不需要每年將盈利翻倍才能成為一個優秀的投資。即使它每年以 25% 的速度增長盈利，它仍然可以隨着時間的推移降低其估值，併成為一隻超越市場的股票。以下是如果英偉達每年以 25% 的速度增長盈利，而股價平均每年上漲 15%，其市盈率（P/E）將如何從 50 以上降至 35 以下的情況。</p><figure class="table"><table><thead><tr><th>指標</th><th>當前</th><th>第一年</th><th>第二年</th><th>第三年</th><th>第四年</th><th>第五年</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>股價（年增長 15%）</td><td>$159.20</td><td>$183.08</td><td>$210.54</td><td>$242.12</td><td>$278.44</td><td>$320.21</td></tr><tr><td>每股盈利（年增長 25%）</td><td>$3.10</td><td>$3.88</td><td>$4.84</td><td>$6.05</td><td>$7.57</td><td>$9.46</td></tr><tr><td>市盈率</td><td>51.4</td><td>47.2</td><td>43.5</td><td>40</td><td>36.2</td><td>33.8</td></tr></tbody></table></figure><p>在這些假設下，英偉達的股價在五年內大致翻倍，但其盈利卻增長了三倍，因此市盈率大幅下降。</p><p>關鍵的結論是，英偉達不需要維持其拋物線式的增長才能成為一個良好的投資。然而，如果投資者認為不可預見的風險會打斷其增長軌跡，股票可能會大幅下跌。我們在 4 月時就嚐到了這一點，當時英偉達預計將因關税而產生數十億美元的費用，股價在短時間內暴跌。</p><p>總之，投資者只有在對持續的 AI 支出和公司在市場成熟時的轉型能力充滿信心時，才應考慮投資英偉達。</p><h2 id="o65p1nbsp">遠非單一業務</h2><p>微軟可能是尋求更平衡的科技股票的投資者更好的選擇。微軟的市盈率低於英偉達，原因很簡單，因為它的增長速度沒有那麼快。然而，微軟也不需要很多事情順利進行就能繼續穩定增長。</p><p>英偉達絕大多數的盈利直接與 AI 相關。微軟則擁有多元化的盈利結構，包括雲計算、軟件、硬件、GitHub、LinkedIn 和 Xbox 等平台，以及其他領域。AI 正在加速微軟的盈利增長並擴展其盈利，但即使 AI 投資放緩，行業成熟，該公司仍然可以表現得非常出色。</p><p>值得一提的是，微軟定期回購股票，並且已經連續 15 年提高股息。因此，它的資本回報計劃比英偉達更為平衡，英偉達則通過發展核心業務來獎勵股東，而不是直接返還資本。</p><h2 id="ui3moofxa">兩個適合長期投資者的穩健買入</h2><p>英偉達和微軟都是傑出的公司。看到它們的市值都超過 4 萬億美元並繼續增長並不令人驚訝。然而，投資者應該注意到，這兩家公司股票價格的上漲速度快於其盈利增長，這給它們帶來了在預期與現實之間彌合差距的壓力。</p>

<p>英偉達有望成為首家市值超過 4 萬億美元的公司，目前距離這一目標僅超過 3%。與此同時，微軟的表現也相當不錯。這兩家公司都經歷了顯著的盈利增長，英偉達的年淨收入飆升至 768 億美元。為了保持投資吸引力，它們必須持續這種增長。英偉達受益於對人工智能解決方案的高需求，從而實現了可觀的利潤率。即使面臨潛在的利潤率下降，25% 的年盈利增長仍然可能使英偉達成為一個強勁的投資選擇，隨着時間的推移降低其市盈率</p>

<p>On Dec. 26, 2024, <strong>Apple</strong> crossed $3.9 trillion in market capitalization, putting it just 2% away from becoming the world's first $4 trillion company. But it didn't get there. Apple has recovered in recent weeks but remains down big year to date, whereas <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 1.58%) just made new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年 12 月 26 日，<strong>蘋果</strong> 的市值突破了 3.9 萬億美元，距離成為全球首家市值達到 4 萬億美元的公司僅有 2%。但它並沒有做到。蘋果在最近幾周有所回升，但年初至今仍大幅下跌，而 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) 和 <strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT 1.58%) 則創下了新的歷史高點。</p>
</div><p>Here's why Nvidia will likely become the first company to surpass $4 trillion in market value, what Nvidia and Microsoft must do to continue rising in price, and whether either growth stock is a buy now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是為什麼英偉達可能成為首家市值超過 4 萬億美元的公司的原因，以及英偉達和微軟必須做些什麼才能繼續上漲，以及這兩隻成長股現在是否值得購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM4OTEvYS1zaWduLXRoYXQtcmVhZHMtcmVjb3JkLWhpZ2hzLWp1c3QtYWhlYWQtb24tdGhlLXNpZGUtb2YtYS1yb2FkLW5leHQtdG8tYW4tb3Blbi1wbGFpbi13aXRoLW1vdW50YWlucy1pbi10aGUtYmFja2dyb3VuZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823891%2Fa-sign-that-reads-record-highs-just-ahead-on-the-side-of-a-road-next-to-an-open-plain-with-mountains-in-the-background.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A new frontrunner</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新的領跑者</h2>
</div><p>In less than three years, Nvidia has gone from billions to trillions in market cap. And now, it is the closest company to $4 trillion -- a little over 3% away as of market close on July 3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在不到三年的時間裏，英偉達的市值從數十億躍升至數萬億。現在，它是距離 4 萬億美元最近的公司——截至 7 月 3 日市場收盤，距離僅超過 3%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/805ab1759246051df94a3433c57dcbd9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/805ab1759246051df94a3433c57dcbd9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Market Cap data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達市值數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia will likely reach $4 trillion before Microsoft simply because it is closer to the threshold, and its stock is more volatile. Nvidia is now up over 18% year to date (YTD), but it was down around 30% YTD in early April during the worst of the tariff-induced sell-off. So it's not unreasonable that the stock could move a few percentage points higher to pole-vault its market cap above $4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達可能會在微軟之前達到 4 萬億美元的市值，原因在於它離這一門檻更近，並且其股票波動性更大。英偉達年初至今上漲超過 18%，但在 4 月初的關税引發的拋售潮中，年初至今下跌約 30%。因此，股票上漲幾個百分點以使其市值超過 4 萬億美元並不不合理。</p>
</div><p>The better question isn't whether Nvidia or Microsoft will hit $4 trillion in market cap but rather what each company must do to justify that valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更好的問題不是英偉達或微軟是否會達到 4 萬億美元的市值，而是每家公司必須做些什麼才能證明這一估值是合理的。</p>
</div><h2>An earnings-driven rally</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>由盈利驅動的反彈</h2>
</div><p>The two biggest drivers of stock-price appreciation are earnings growth and investor sentiment. If earnings are increasing, investors will likely pay a higher price for the company's shares. But if investors expect the pace of earnings growth to accelerate, then they may be willing to give a stock a premium valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票價格上漲的兩個主要驅動因素是盈利增長和投資者情緒。如果盈利在增長，投資者可能會願意以更高的價格購買公司的股票。但如果投資者預期盈利增長的速度會加快，他們可能會願意給予股票溢價估值。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia and Microsoft have been such strong performers in recent years because they are growing earnings <em>and</em> investors are willing to pay a premium price for these companies relative to their earnings. Nvidia went from making under $10 billion in annual net income to a staggering $76.8 billion in just a few years. Microsoft has doubled its net income over the past five years, and its stock price has more than doubled as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達和微軟近年來表現如此強勁，因為它們的盈利在增長，且投資者願意為這些公司的股票支付相對於其盈利的溢價。英偉達的年淨收入從不足 100 億美元飆升至驚人的 768 億美元，僅用了幾年時間。微軟在過去五年中將其淨收入翻了一番，其股價也翻了一番以上。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8658e73ee38cc67b2f2ed7025330b571.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8658e73ee38cc67b2f2ed7025330b571.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>For Nvidia and Microsoft to continue being good investments going forward, both companies must demonstrate that their earnings growth is sustainable and not temporary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了繼續成為良好的投資，英偉達和微軟都必須證明其盈利增長是可持續的，而不是暫時的。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's valuation is still reasonable</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的估值仍然合理</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia has greatly benefited from the rapid rise of big tech spending on artificial intelligence (AI). Nvidia has a dominant market share in providing high-powered graphics processing units (GPUs) for data centers and associated AI solutions for enterprises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達從大科技公司在人工智能（AI）上的快速支出中受益匪淺。英偉達在為數據中心提供高性能圖形處理單元（GPU）和企業相關的 AI 解決方案方面佔據主導市場份額。</p>
</div><p>Due to limited supply and high demand, Nvidia can charge top dollar for its AI offerings, which allows it to convert over half of its sales into pure profit. And because Nvidia's customers are some of the most financially secure, big-budget companies in the world (like Microsoft), then Nvidia knows its customers can afford to spend a ton on AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於供應有限和需求旺盛，英偉達可以為其 AI 產品收取高價，這使其能夠將超過一半的銷售額轉化為純利潤。而且，由於英偉達的客户是一些全球最具財務實力的大型公司（如微軟），因此英偉達知道其客户能夠在 AI 上花費大量資金。</p>
</div><p>However, that wouldn't be the case if challenges arise for key Nvidia customers if there is an industrywide slowdown or if competition comes along and erodes Nvidia's margins. Buying Nvidia now is a bet that the company can continue growing its earnings even if its margins gradually decline over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果關鍵的英偉達客户面臨挑戰，或者如果行業普遍放緩，競爭出現並侵蝕英偉達的利潤率，情況就會有所不同。現在購買英偉達是對該公司即使在利潤率逐漸下降的情況下仍能繼續增長其盈利的押注。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that Nvidia doesn't have to double its earnings every year to be a great buy. Even if it grows earnings at, let's say, 25% per year, it could still reduce its valuation over time and be a market-beating stock. Here's a look at how Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio would go from over 50 to under 35 in five years if it grew earnings at 25% per year, and the stock price gained an average of 15% per year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，英偉達不需要每年將盈利翻倍才能成為一個優秀的投資。即使它每年以 25% 的速度增長盈利，它仍然可以隨着時間的推移降低其估值，併成為一隻超越市場的股票。以下是如果英偉達每年以 25% 的速度增長盈利，而股價平均每年上漲 15%，其市盈率（P/E）將如何從 50 以上降至 35 以下的情況。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Current</th>
<th>Year 1</th>
<th>Year 2</th>
<th>Year 3</th>
<th>Year 4</th>
<th>Year 5</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock Price (15% Annual Growth)</td>
<td>$159.20</td>
<td>$183.08</td>
<td>$210.54</td>
<td>$242.12</td>
<td>$278.44</td>
<td>$320.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Earnings Per Share (25% Annual Growth)</td>
<td>$3.10</td>
<td>$3.88</td>
<td>$4.84</td>
<td>$6.05</td>
<td>$7.57</td>
<td>$9.46</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>P/E Ratio</td>
<td>51.4</td>
<td>47.2</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>36.2</td>
<td>33.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>當前</th>
<th>第一年</th>
<th>第二年</th>
<th>第三年</th>
<th>第四年</th>
<th>第五年</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股價（年增長 15%）</td>
<td>$159.20</td>
<td>$183.08</td>
<td>$210.54</td>
<td>$242.12</td>
<td>$278.44</td>
<td>$320.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股盈利（年增長 25%）</td>
<td>$3.10</td>
<td>$3.88</td>
<td>$4.84</td>
<td>$6.05</td>
<td>$7.57</td>
<td>$9.46</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>市盈率</td>
<td>51.4</td>
<td>47.2</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>36.2</td>
<td>33.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Under these assumptions, Nvidia's stock price roughly doubles in five years, but its earnings triple, so the P/E ratio falls considerably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這些假設下，英偉達的股價在五年內大致翻倍，但其盈利卻增長了三倍，因此市盈率大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>The key takeaway is that Nvidia doesn't have to sustain its parabolic growth to be a good investment. However, the stock could sell off dramatically if investors believe an unforeseen risk will interrupt its growth trajectory. We got a taste of that in April when Nvidia estimated it would incur multibillion-dollar charges due to tariffs, and the stock price nose-dived in a short period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵的結論是，英偉達不需要維持其拋物線式的增長才能成為一個良好的投資。然而，如果投資者認為不可預見的風險會打斷其增長軌跡，股票可能會大幅下跌。我們在 4 月時就嚐到了這一點，當時英偉達預計將因關税而產生數十億美元的費用，股價在短時間內暴跌。</p>
</div><p>In sum, investors should only consider Nvidia if they are confident in sustained AI spending and the company's ability to pivot as the market matures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，投資者只有在對持續的 AI 支出和公司在市場成熟時的轉型能力充滿信心時，才應考慮投資英偉達。</p>
</div><h2>Far from a one-trick pony</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>遠非單一業務</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft may be a better choice for investors seeking a more balanced tech stock to purchase. Microsoft has a lower P/E than Nvidia, and for good reason, because it isn't growing as quickly. However, Microsoft also doesn't need a lot to go right for it to continue growing steadily over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟可能是尋求更平衡的科技股票的投資者更好的選擇。微軟的市盈率低於英偉達，原因很簡單，因為它的增長速度沒有那麼快。然而，微軟也不需要很多事情順利進行就能繼續穩定增長。</p>
</div><p>The vast majority of Nvidia's earnings are directly tied to AI. Microsoft has a diverse earnings profile, encompassing cloud computing, software, hardware, platforms such as GitHub, LinkedIn, and Xbox, as well as other areas. AI is accelerating Microsoft's earnings growth and expanding its earnings, but the company can still do extremely well even if AI investment slows and the industry matures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達絕大多數的盈利直接與 AI 相關。微軟則擁有多元化的盈利結構，包括雲計算、軟件、硬件、GitHub、LinkedIn 和 Xbox 等平台，以及其他領域。AI 正在加速微軟的盈利增長並擴展其盈利，但即使 AI 投資放緩，行業成熟，該公司仍然可以表現得非常出色。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth mentioning that Microsoft routinely buys back its stock and has raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years. So it has a more balanced capital-return program than Nvidia, which rewards shareholders by growing the core business rather than directly returning capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，微軟定期回購股票，並且已經連續 15 年提高股息。因此，它的資本回報計劃比英偉達更為平衡，英偉達則通過發展核心業務來獎勵股東，而不是直接返還資本。</p>
</div><h2>Two solid buys for long-term investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>兩個適合長期投資者的穩健買入</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia and Microsoft are exceptional companies. It wouldn't be surprising to see them both surpass $4 trillion market caps and continue building from there. However, investors should be mindful that both companies are seeing their stock prices rise faster than their earnings are growing, which puts pressure on them to bridge the gap between expectations and reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達和微軟都是傑出的公司。看到它們的市值都超過 4 萬億美元並繼續增長並不令人驚訝。然而，投資者應該注意到，這兩家公司股票價格的上漲速度快於其盈利增長，這給它們帶來了在預期與現實之間彌合差距的壓力。</p>
</div>

Nvidia vs. Microsoft Stock: Which Will Be the First $4 Trillion Company?

- 蘋果在 2024 年 12 月 26 日市值達到 3.9 萬億美元，距離 4 萬億僅 2%。
- 英偉達和微軟近期創下新高，英偉達更有可能成為首個市值超 4 萬億的公司。
- 投資者需關注兩家公司能否持續增長以支撐其高估值。

Motley Fool

微軟

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

YieldMax MSFT Option Income Strategy ETF

微軟每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微軟每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft MSFT ETF

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

英偉達和微軟的股票：哪家公司會率先達到市值 4 萬億美元？