<p>七年前，市場首次出現了市值達到 1 萬億美元的公司，當時 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL) 突破了這一門檻。從那時起，許多公司也達到了萬億市值。根據一些分析師的觀點，可能不久之後就會出現市值達到 5 萬億美元的股票。</p>
<p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT) 和 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA) 是當今世界上最有價值的股票之一。它們的交易價格創下了歷史新高，估值也並不低。然而，分析師們預計這些科技股還有更大的上漲空間。這些科技巨頭的預測是否過於樂觀，還是現在仍然是投資它們的好時機？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwMTQvYS1jb3VwbGUtb2YtaW52ZXN0b3JzLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1zZXJpZXMtb2YtY2hhcnRzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwMTQvYS1jb3VwbGUtb2YtaW52ZXN0b3JzLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1zZXJpZXMtb2YtY2hhcnRzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>爭奪 5 萬億美元估值的競賽</h2>
<p>蘋果、微軟和英偉達通常是世界上最有價值的公司。然而，最近微軟和英偉達在蘋果之間拉開了一些距離，現在穩居前兩名。截至 7 月 7 日，英偉達以近 3.9 萬億美元的市值成為最有價值的公司。在如此高的估值下，它達到 4 萬億美元的門檻只是時間問題。</p>
<p>對於芯片製造商英偉達來説，要達到 5 萬億美元的市值，它需要從現在的水平上漲不到 30%。而市值為 3.7 萬億美元的微軟，這需要上漲超過 35% 才能達到。Wedbush 的分析師認為，這兩者中的一個可能在未來 18 個月內達到 5 萬億美元的估值。</p>
<p>價格目標可能會有所不同，但根據共識平均水平，微軟的上漲空間約為 6%，而英偉達約為 11%。但隨着時間的推移，並假設更多分析師上調他們的價格目標，這一共識平均水平將會上升。</p>
<h2>這些股票是否已經太貴？</h2>
<p>這些公司估值很高，但多年來它們的增長速度也令人印象深刻。以下是這三大巨頭在各自的市盈率 (P/E) 倍數上的比較。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/356d12ac20c3f9fc25340bfe5a4fb0d8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/356d12ac20c3f9fc25340bfe5a4fb0d8.png"/></p>
<p>PE 比率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>平均 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數股票的市盈率倍數為 24，這意味着這兩隻股票的交易價格都處於相當高的溢價水平，而市場已經顯得火熱並創下歷史新高。另一種將此放入背景的方法是將這些估值與這些公司在最近幾個季度所取得的增長率進行比較。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4035b108f4d5010e5cea938dac316615.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4035b108f4d5010e5cea938dac316615.png"/></p>
<p>增長率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>如果一家公司以快速的速度增長，那麼支付高溢價是可以理解的，尤其是在預期仍然很高的情況下。與微軟相比，英偉達在盈利方面的價格要高得多，其增長率也遠高於微軟，這得益於其在人工智能芯片市場的主導地位。</p>
<p>然而，潛在的技術支出放緩可能由於關税和貿易戰而削弱這些公司的增長前景，從而使它們的投資價值下降。</p>
<h2>投資英偉達或微軟是否為時已晚？</h2>
<p>英偉達和微軟都是高盈利且強大的投資業務。然而，期待它們在不久的將來達到 5 萬億美元估值的問題在於，科技行業需要存在最佳的情景，並且人工智能支出需要保持強勁。如果經濟放緩，我不相信這一點會發生，這就是我認為目前對這些科技股的預期可能過於高漲的原因；它們的價格已經顯得過於樂觀。</p>
<p>但如果你計劃投資至少五年，那麼這兩隻股票仍然可以是你投資組合中的良好投資。它們是最安全的投資之一。儘管它們在短期內可能會經歷波動，但從長期來看，它們的價值仍然可能顯著上升。</p>

微軟

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>分析師對微軟和英偉達的看法越來越樂觀，兩者的市值均接近 4 萬億美元。英偉達以 3.9 萬億美元的市值領先，而微軟則以 3.7 萬億美元緊隨其後。分析師預測在 18 個月內有可能達到 5 萬億美元的估值，但對高市盈率和潛在的科技支出放緩表示擔憂。儘管存在這些風險，兩家公司仍被視為強勁的長期投資，儘管當前的估值可能反映出過度樂觀。投資者應考慮長期投資以獲取潛在收益</p>

<p>It was seven years ago that the market saw its first 1 trillion-dollar company, when <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL) crossed that threshold. Since then, many more have reached trillion-dollar valuations. And according to some analysts, it may not be long before there is a stock that's worth $5 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七年前，市場首次出現了市值達到 1 萬億美元的公司，當時 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL) 突破了這一門檻。從那時起，許多公司也達到了萬億市值。根據一些分析師的觀點，可能不久之後就會出現市值達到 5 萬億美元的股票。</p>
</div><p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT) and <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA) are among the most highly valued stocks in the world today. They are trading at record levels and their valuations aren't exactly modest. And yet, analysts are projecting much more upside for these tech stocks. Are forecasts getting a bit too rosy for these tech giants, or can it still be a good time to invest in them?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT) 和 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA) 是當今世界上最有價值的股票之一。它們的交易價格創下了歷史新高，估值也並不低。然而，分析師們預計這些科技股還有更大的上漲空間。這些科技巨頭的預測是否過於樂觀，還是現在仍然是投資它們的好時機？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwMTQvYS1jb3VwbGUtb2YtaW52ZXN0b3JzLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1zZXJpZXMtb2YtY2hhcnRzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824014%2Fa-couple-of-investors-looking-at-a-series-of-charts.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The race to a $5 trillion valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>爭奪 5 萬億美元估值的競賽</h2>
</div><p>Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are routinely among the most valuable companies in the world. Lately, however, Microsoft and Nvidia have been creating some space between Apple and are now firmly in the top two positions. As of July 7, Nvidia held the title as the most valuable company, with a market cap of nearly $3.9 trillion. At such a high valuation, it may only be a matter of time before it reaches the $4 trillion threshold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果、微軟和英偉達通常是世界上最有價值的公司。然而，最近微軟和英偉達在蘋果之間拉開了一些距離，現在穩居前兩名。截至 7 月 7 日，英偉達以近 3.9 萬億美元的市值成為最有價值的公司。在如此高的估值下，它達到 4 萬億美元的門檻只是時間問題。</p>
</div><p>For chipmaker Nvidia to get to $5 trillion, it would need to rise by a little less than 30% from where it is right now. Microsoft, the diversified software and hardware company, which has a market cap of $3.7 trillion, would need to rally by more than 35% to get there. Analysts at Wedbush believe that one of these two might reach a $5 trillion valuation within the next 18 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於芯片製造商英偉達來説，要達到 5 萬億美元的市值，它需要從現在的水平上漲不到 30%。而市值為 3.7 萬億美元的微軟，這需要上漲超過 35% 才能達到。Wedbush 的分析師認為，這兩者中的一個可能在未來 18 個月內達到 5 萬億美元的估值。</p>
</div><p>Price targets can vary, but according to the consensus average, Microsoft has an upside of around 6% while Nvidia is at approximately 11%. But over time, and assuming more analysts upgrade their price targets, that consensus average will rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格目標可能會有所不同，但根據共識平均水平，微軟的上漲空間約為 6%，而英偉達約為 11%。但隨着時間的推移，並假設更多分析師上調他們的價格目標，這一共識平均水平將會上升。</p>
</div><h2>Are these stocks already too expensive?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這些股票是否已經太貴？</h2>
</div><p>These companies are highly valued, but they've also been growing at impressive rates over the years. Here's how the big three stack up against one another when looking at their respective price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些公司估值很高，但多年來它們的增長速度也令人印象深刻。以下是這三大巨頭在各自的市盈率 (P/E) 倍數上的比較。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/356d12ac20c3f9fc25340bfe5a4fb0d8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/356d12ac20c3f9fc25340bfe5a4fb0d8.png"/></p>
<p>PE ratios data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PE 比率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The average <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index stock trades at a P/E multiple of 24, which would mean that both of these stocks are trading at sizable premiums, in a market which is already looking red hot and hitting record levels. Another way to put this into context is to compare these valuations against the growth rates these companies have been achieving in recent quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數股票的市盈率倍數為 24，這意味着這兩隻股票的交易價格都處於相當高的溢價水平，而市場已經顯得火熱並創下歷史新高。另一種將此放入背景的方法是將這些估值與這些公司在最近幾個季度所取得的增長率進行比較。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4035b108f4d5010e5cea938dac316615.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4035b108f4d5010e5cea938dac316615.png"/></p>
<p>Growth rates data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增長率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>If a company is growing at a fast rate, then it can be justifiable to pay a high premium, especially if expectations remain high. Nvidia is much more expensive than Microsoft with respect to earnings, and its growth rate is far higher as well, due to its dominance in the artificial intelligence chip market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果一家公司以快速的速度增長，那麼支付高溢價是可以理解的，尤其是在預期仍然很高的情況下。與微軟相比，英偉達在盈利方面的價格要高得多，其增長率也遠高於微軟，這得益於其在人工智能芯片市場的主導地位。</p>
</div><p>The danger, however, is that a potential slowdown due in tech spending due to tariffs and trade wars could undermine the growth prospects of these companies and make them worse buys in the process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，潛在的技術支出放緩可能由於關税和貿易戰而削弱這些公司的增長前景，從而使它們的投資價值下降。</p>
</div><h2>Is it too late to invest in Nvidia or Microsoft?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資英偉達或微軟是否為時已晚？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia and Microsoft are highly profitable and strong businesses to invest in. However, the problem with expecting either one of them to hit a $5 trillion valuation in the near future is that a best-case scenario would need to exist for tech, and AI spending would need to remain strong. I'm not convinced that will happen if the economy slows down, and that's why I think that expectations may be getting a bit too high for these tech stocks right now; there is too much optimism priced in, as they already look expensive today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達和微軟都是高盈利且強大的投資業務。然而，期待它們在不久的將來達到 5 萬億美元估值的問題在於，科技行業需要存在最佳的情景，並且人工智能支出需要保持強勁。如果經濟放緩，我不相信這一點會發生，這就是我認為目前對這些科技股的預期可能過於高漲的原因；它們的價格已經顯得過於樂觀。</p>
</div><p>But if you're planning to invest for at least five years, then either one of these stocks can still be a good investment to hold in your portfolio. They are among the safest investments to own. And while they may experience volatility in the <em>short term</em>, over the long term, they are still likely to rise significantly in value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你計劃投資至少五年，那麼這兩隻股票仍然可以是你投資組合中的良好投資。它們是最安全的投資之一。儘管它們在短期內可能會經歷波動，但從長期來看，它們的價值仍然可能顯著上升。</p>
</div>

Are Analysts Getting Too Bullish on Microsoft and Nvidia?

- 蘋果、微軟和英偉達是全球最有價值的公司。  
- 英偉達市值接近 3.9 萬億美元，微軟為 3.7 萬億美元。  
- 分析師預計未來 18 個月內可能有公司達到 5 萬億美元市值。

分析師們對微軟和 NVIDIA 的態度是否過於樂觀？