<p>在過去的 12 個月裏，<strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（BABA 2.71%）的股票上漲了近 50%，因為該公司以其穩定的增長和人工智能（AI）努力給投資者留下了深刻印象。但即便在這輪反彈之後，這家中國電子商務和雲計算領導者的股價仍然比 2020 年 10 月的歷史最高點低 65%。</p>
<p>投資者今天應該購買阿里巴巴的股票，並期待在接下來的 12 個月內繼續上漲嗎？還是它會在面臨更多宏觀和競爭壓力時放棄其收益？</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴在過去一年發生了什麼？</h2>
<p>在 2022 財年（截至 2022 年 3 月），阿里巴巴的收入增長了 19%。但在 2023 財年，其收入僅增長了 2%，在 2024 財年增長了 8%，在 2025 財年增長了 6%。這種放緩是由於三個主要挑戰造成的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MDYvY2hpbmEtYWktY2hpcC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MDYvY2hpbmEtYWktY2hpcC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>首先，中國的反壟斷監管機構在 2021 年對阿里巴巴處以罰款，並禁止其通過獨佔協議鎖定商户，使用激進的虧損促銷來獲取新客户，以及進行未經批准的投資和收購。監管機構還取消了其金融科技子公司螞蟻金服的計劃 IPO。這些限制削弱了阿里巴巴對 <strong>拼多多</strong>、<strong>京東</strong> 和字節跳動的抖音（海外稱為 TikTok）等小型競爭對手的防禦能力。</p>
<p>其次，中國經濟放緩——部分原因是不可預測的 “清零政策” 封鎖和房地產市場疲軟——消費者支出減緩。這些宏觀壓力也導致其雲客户縮減支出。</p>
<p>隨着阿里巴巴的增長放緩，空頭們認為其高增長時代已經結束，業務正在成熟。自 2015 年以來擔任首席執行官的張勇在 2023 年也辭職。在張勇離職後，阿里巴巴曾考慮通過新的 IPO 分拆其各個業務部門，但這些計劃最終未能實現。</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴是如何穩定其業務的？</h2>
<p>但在所有這些噪音中，阿里巴巴的業務仍在增長。在其零售業務中，海外市場（土耳其的 Trendyol、東南亞的 Lazada、南亞的 Daraz 以及跨境採購的 AliExpress）的強勁增長抵消了其在中國的淘寶和天貓市場的較弱增長。更温和的宏觀環境和 AI 市場的擴展也為其雲基礎設施業務帶來了順風。隨着阿里巴巴的兩個核心業務再次增長，它削減成本，回購更多股票，並從其高利潤的雲和 AI 業務中獲得更高的收入組合，從而提高了每股收益。</p>
<p>| 指標 | 2024 財年第四季度 | 2025 財年第一季度 | 2025 財年第二季度 | 2025 財年第三季度 | 2025 財年第四季度 |
| 收入增長（同比）| 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| 營業利潤率 | 7% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 12% |
| 調整後每股收益增長 | (5%) | (5%) | (4%) | 13% | 23% |</p>
<p>數據來源：阿里巴巴。以人民幣計。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<p>因此，阿里巴巴的收入穩定，營業利潤率擴大，調整後的收益在過去兩個季度同比增長。這一復甦，加上其針對 Qwen——其新一代大型語言模型（LLMs）用於新生成 AI 應用的持續升級——吸引了許多投資者重新關注阿里巴巴的股票。</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴的股票在一年後會在哪裏？</h2>
<p>對於 2026 財年，分析師預計阿里巴巴的收入將增長 7%，調整後的每股收益將增長 8%。對於 2027 財年，他們預計阿里巴巴的收入和調整後的每股收益將分別增長 8% 和 14%。投資者應對這些估計持謹慎態度，但這暗示其海外電子商務市場和雲業務將繼續擴展。</p>
<p>由於阿里巴巴不再計劃將其業務單元分拆為獨立公司，它可能會將其雲、AI、物流、配送應用和實體店更緊密地整合到其國內和海外電子商務市場中。這種方法可能會擴大其對競爭對手的護城河。</p>
<p>即便在經歷了一年的反彈後，阿里巴巴的股票仍以其前瞻性調整後收益的 11 倍交易。其估值可能受到美中之間的關税和貿易戰的壓制。但如果這種壓力減輕，它可能會再次獲得更高的估值。假設阿里巴巴能夠達到分析師的預期，並在 2027 財年初（2026 年 4 月）以更慷慨的 15 倍前瞻性調整後收益交易，其股價可能上漲 55%，達到約 167 美元。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴仍然可能有光明的未來。然而，投資者只有在相信冷靜的頭腦將在持續的貿易戰中佔上風時，才應該購買其股票。如果你預計這些緊張局勢會升級，追逐其最新收益可能不是最佳選擇。</p>

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-W

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

BABO

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>阿里巴巴的股票在過去一年上漲了近 50%，但仍比歷史最高點低 65%。儘管面臨監管罰款和經濟放緩等挑戰，阿里巴巴的收入已趨於穩定，預計增長將持續。分析師預測 2026 財年的收入將增長 7%，2027 財年將增長 8%。該股票的前瞻性調整市盈率為 11 倍，如果貿易緊張局勢緩解，可能會有 55% 的上漲空間。如果投資者相信持續的貿易問題能夠得到解決，應該考慮買入</p>

<p>Over the past 12 months, <strong>Alibaba</strong>'s (BABA 2.71%) stock rose nearly 50% as the company impressed investors with its stabilizing growth and artificial intelligence (AI) efforts. But even after that rally, the Chinese e-commerce and cloud leader's stock price remains 65% below its all-time high from October 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的 12 個月裏，<strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（BABA 2.71%）的股票上漲了近 50%，因為該公司以其穩定的增長和人工智能（AI）努力給投資者留下了深刻印象。但即便在這輪反彈之後，這家中國電子商務和雲計算領導者的股價仍然比 2020 年 10 月的歷史最高點低 65%。</p>
</div><p>Should investors buy Alibaba's stock today and expect it to keep climbing over the next 12 months? Or will it give up its gains as it faces more macro and competitive headwinds?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者今天應該購買阿里巴巴的股票，並期待在接下來的 12 個月內繼續上漲嗎？還是它會在面臨更多宏觀和競爭壓力時放棄其收益？</p>
</div><h2>What happened to Alibaba over the past year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴在過去一年發生了什麼？</h2>
</div><p>Back in fiscal 2022 (which ended in March 2022), Alibaba's revenue rose 19%. But its revenue only grew 2% in fiscal 2023, 8% in fiscal 2024, and 6% in fiscal 2025. That slowdown was caused by three major challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 財年（截至 2022 年 3 月），阿里巴巴的收入增長了 19%。但在 2023 財年，其收入僅增長了 2%，在 2024 財年增長了 8%，在 2025 財年增長了 6%。這種放緩是由於三個主要挑戰造成的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MDYvY2hpbmEtYWktY2hpcC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824406%2Fchina-ai-chip.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>First, China's antitrust regulators fined Alibaba in 2021 and barred it from locking in its merchants with exclusive deals, using aggressive loss-leading promotions to gain new customers, and making unapproved investments and acquisitions. The regulators also scuttled a planned IPO for its fintech affiliate Ant Financial. Those restrictions eroded its defenses against its smaller competitors like <strong>PDD</strong>, <strong>JD.com</strong>, and ByteDance's Douyin (known as TikTok overseas).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，中國的反壟斷監管機構在 2021 年對阿里巴巴處以罰款，並禁止其通過獨佔協議鎖定商户，使用激進的虧損促銷來獲取新客户，以及進行未經批准的投資和收購。監管機構還取消了其金融科技子公司螞蟻金服的計劃 IPO。這些限制削弱了阿里巴巴對 <strong>拼多多</strong>、<strong>京東</strong> 和字節跳動的抖音（海外稱為 TikTok）等小型競爭對手的防禦能力。</p>
</div><p>Second, China's economy cooled off -- partly due to the unpredictable &#34;zero-COVID&#34; lockdowns and a softening real estate market -- and consumer spending slowed down. Those macro headwinds also caused its cloud customers to rein in their spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，中國經濟放緩——部分原因是不可預測的 “清零政策” 封鎖和房地產市場疲軟——消費者支出減緩。這些宏觀壓力也導致其雲客户縮減支出。</p>
</div><p>As Alibaba's growth decelerated, the bears argued that its high-growth days were over and its business was maturing. Daniel Zhang, who had served as its CEO since 2015, also stepped down in 2023. After Zhang's departure, Alibaba flirted with the idea of spinning off its individual business segments with fresh IPOs -- but those plans never panned out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着阿里巴巴的增長放緩，空頭們認為其高增長時代已經結束，業務正在成熟。自 2015 年以來擔任首席執行官的張勇在 2023 年也辭職。在張勇離職後，阿里巴巴曾考慮通過新的 IPO 分拆其各個業務部門，但這些計劃最終未能實現。</p>
</div><h2>How did Alibaba stabilize its business?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴是如何穩定其業務的？</h2>
</div><p>But through all of that noise, Alibaba's business kept growing. In its retail business, the robust growth of its overseas marketplaces (Trendyol in Turkey, Lazada in Southeast Asia, Daraz in South Asia, and AliExpress for cross-border purchases) offset the weaker growth of its Taobao and Tmall marketplaces in China. The warmer macro environment and the expansion of the AI market also generated tailwinds for its cloud infrastructure business. As Alibaba's two core businesses grew again, it cut costs, bought back more shares, and generated a higher mix of revenues from its higher-margin cloud and AI businesses to grow its earnings per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在所有這些噪音中，阿里巴巴的業務仍在增長。在其零售業務中，海外市場（土耳其的 Trendyol、東南亞的 Lazada、南亞的 Daraz 以及跨境採購的 AliExpress）的強勁增長抵消了其在中國的淘寶和天貓市場的較弱增長。更温和的宏觀環境和 AI 市場的擴展也為其雲基礎設施業務帶來了順風。隨着阿里巴巴的兩個核心業務再次增長，它削減成本，回購更多股票，並從其高利潤的雲和 AI 業務中獲得更高的收入組合，從而提高了每股收益。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
| Revenue growth (YOY) | 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| Operating margin | 7% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 12% |
| Adjusted EPS growth | (5%) | (5%) | (4%) | 13% | 23% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指標 | 2024 財年第四季度 | 2025 財年第一季度 | 2025 財年第二季度 | 2025 財年第三季度 | 2025 財年第四季度 |
| 收入增長（同比）| 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| 營業利潤率 | 7% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 12% |
| 調整後每股收益增長 | (5%) | (5%) | (4%) | 13% | 23% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Alibaba. In CNY terms. YOY = Year-over-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：阿里巴巴。以人民幣計。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Alibaba's top line stabilized, its operating margins expanded, and its adjusted earnings grew year over year over the past two quarters. That recovery, along with its ongoing upgrades for Qwen -- its new family of large language models (LLMs) for new generative AI applications -- drew many investors back to Alibaba's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，阿里巴巴的收入穩定，營業利潤率擴大，調整後的收益在過去兩個季度同比增長。這一復甦，加上其針對 Qwen——其新一代大型語言模型（LLMs）用於新生成 AI 應用的持續升級——吸引了許多投資者重新關注阿里巴巴的股票。</p>
</div><h2>Where will Alibaba's stock be in a year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴的股票在一年後會在哪裏？</h2>
</div><p>For fiscal 2026, analysts expect Alibaba's revenue to rise 7% as its adjusted EPS grows 8%. For fiscal 2027, they expect Alibaba's revenue and adjusted EPS to increase 8% and 14%, respectively. Investors should take those estimates with a grain of salt, but they imply that its overseas e-commerce marketplaces and cloud business will continue to expand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 2026 財年，分析師預計阿里巴巴的收入將增長 7%，調整後的每股收益將增長 8%。對於 2027 財年，他們預計阿里巴巴的收入和調整後的每股收益將分別增長 8% 和 14%。投資者應對這些估計持謹慎態度，但這暗示其海外電子商務市場和雲業務將繼續擴展。</p>
</div><p>Since Alibaba no longer plans to spin off its business units as stand-alone companies, it might integrate its cloud, AI, logistics, delivery apps, and brick-and-mortar stores more tightly into its domestic and overseas e-commerce marketplaces. That approach could widen its moat against its less diversified competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於阿里巴巴不再計劃將其業務單元分拆為獨立公司，它可能會將其雲、AI、物流、配送應用和實體店更緊密地整合到其國內和海外電子商務市場中。這種方法可能會擴大其對競爭對手的護城河。</p>
</div><p>Even after its year-long rally, Alibaba's stock trades at just 11 times its forward adjusted earnings. Its valuations are likely being compressed by the tariffs and the trade war between the U.S. and China. But if that pressure eases, it could command a higher valuation again. Assuming Alibaba matches analysts' estimates and it trades at a more generous 15 times its forward adjusted earnings by the beginning of fiscal 2027 (April 2026), its stock could rise 55% to about $167.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便在經歷了一年的反彈後，阿里巴巴的股票仍以其前瞻性調整後收益的 11 倍交易。其估值可能受到美中之間的關税和貿易戰的壓制。但如果這種壓力減輕，它可能會再次獲得更高的估值。假設阿里巴巴能夠達到分析師的預期，並在 2027 財年初（2026 年 4 月）以更慷慨的 15 倍前瞻性調整後收益交易，其股價可能上漲 55%，達到約 167 美元。</p>
</div><p>Alibaba could still have a bright future. However, investors should only buy its stock if they believe cooler heads will prevail in the ongoing trade war. If you expect those tensions to escalate, it might not be the best idea to chase its latest gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴仍然可能有光明的未來。然而，投資者只有在相信冷靜的頭腦將在持續的貿易戰中佔上風時，才應該購買其股票。如果你預計這些緊張局勢會升級，追逐其最新收益可能不是最佳選擇。</p>
</div>

Where Will Alibaba Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 阿里巴巴股票在過去一年上漲近 50%，但仍低於歷史高點 65%。
- 受反壟斷罰款和經濟放緩影響，阿里巴巴收入增長放緩。
- 分析師預計未來兩年收入和調整後每股收益將繼續增長。

一年後阿里巴巴的股票價格會達到什麼水平？