<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.54%) 曾在數年內保持全球最大公司的稱號，但現在已將這一稱號讓給了 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) 和 <strong>微軟</strong>(NASDAQ: MSFT)，可能是永久性的。然而，我認為這並不是蘋果的終點。根據該公司缺乏新創新產品以及幾乎不存在的人工智能戰略，我不會感到驚訝，如果在未來幾年內其他公司在市值上超過蘋果。</p>
<p>我認為到 2030 年可以超過蘋果的三家公司是 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -0.13%)、<strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 0.49%)(GOOGL 0.49%) 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.69%)。每隻股票需要走的路徑不同，但我認為在未來五年內是可行的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MDkvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MDkvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>蘋果的增長在過去幾年中表現不佳</h2>
<p>首先，讓我們來看看為什麼蘋果會陷入困境。在 COVID 銷售熱潮消退後，蘋果未能顯著增長其收入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/227bb8fd304c1eacdfe589c39f365d72.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/227bb8fd304c1eacdfe589c39f365d72.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<p>雖然蘋果可以提高利潤率和回購股票，但如果不以有意義的速度增加銷售，這些活動的影響是有限的。</p>
<p>目前似乎也沒有任何創新技術在管道中可以推動蘋果的股票上漲。其人工智能推出失敗，新款 iPhone 多年來沒有出現顛覆性功能。除非發生重大變化，否則蘋果的中個位數收入增長是可以預期的。這與其比較的三家公司大相徑庭。</p>
<p>這三家公司最近的收入增長遠遠超過蘋果。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61a68048644bb2a663474857ccc3a531.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61a68048644bb2a663474857ccc3a531.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 和谷歌的增長速度是蘋果的兩到三倍，如果它們能夠保持這種速度，將能夠趕上蘋果。隨着每家公司在人工智能方面的投資和成功，我不會感到驚訝，如果這兩家公司能夠在可預見的未來保持其增長率。</p>
<p>亞馬遜在收入方面的增長速度並沒有顯著快於蘋果。然而，由於高利潤業務如亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）和廣告的崛起，其利潤正在快速增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/232f70bb4938dde3eafc5b908f5bd090.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/232f70bb4938dde3eafc5b908f5bd090.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 基本每股收益（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts。每股收益 = 每股收益。</p>
<p>這三家公司在盈利增長方面的速度遠快於蘋果，而這正是市場對成熟企業所關注的。這將使這三家公司在 2030 年前超過蘋果，但每家公司實現這一目標的難易程度如何呢？</p>
<h2>估值是另一個關鍵考慮因素</h2>
<p>儘管蘋果的增長速度低於市場，但其交易價格遠高於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)，後者的前瞻性市盈率為 23.2 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/096ef740a6f716b1c212d6265f21d139.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/096ef740a6f716b1c212d6265f21d139.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來自 YCharts。市盈率 = 價格與收益之比。</p>
<p>此外，蘋果的估值也遠高於谷歌，後者最近的業績明顯優於蘋果。如果蘋果和谷歌以相同的估值交易，谷歌的市值將超過今天的蘋果。因此，谷歌超越蘋果的路徑相對明確。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 的估值大致相同，因此其增長需要來自盈利。儘管 Meta 在上個季度的每股收益增長了 36%，但假設這一增長放緩至 20%，而蘋果的每股收益增長加速至 10%。如果發生這種情況，五年後，蘋果的淨收入將達到 1570 億美元，而 Meta 將達到 1660 億美元。如果這兩者的估值相同，那麼 Meta 將成為更大的公司。</p>
<p>亞馬遜的估值遠高於蘋果。這是由於其快速的盈利增長，但這種情況不太可能永遠持續。亞馬遜和 Meta 的淨收入相似，即使亞馬遜的盈利增長放緩至 20% 的速度，其估值下降，仍將與 Meta Platforms 的估值相當，從而使其超過蘋果。</p>
<p>這三家公司都具有出色的增長前景，似乎是值得考慮現在購買的優秀投資。蘋果是一隻增長緩慢且昂貴的股票，如果我擁有蘋果的股票，我會賣掉我的股份，投資這三家公司。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>一項預測表明，到 2030 年，亞馬遜、Alphabet 和 Meta Platforms 的市值可能會超過蘋果。自 COVID 以來，蘋果的增長停滯，缺乏創新產品或顯著的人工智能戰略，導致其收入增長僅為中個位數。相比之下，這三家競爭對手的收入和盈利增長速度更快，尤其是在人工智能投資方面。估值也起着重要作用，因為蘋果的交易價格高於其競爭對手。分析表明，投資這三家公司可能比持有蘋果股票更具優勢</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.54%) held the title of world's largest company for several years, but it has since relinquished that title to <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(NASDAQ: MSFT), likely for good. However, I don't think that's the last stop for Apple. Judging by the company's lack of new innovative products, coupled with a practically non-existent AI strategy, I wouldn't be surprised if other companies pass Apple in terms of market cap over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.54%) 曾在數年內保持全球最大公司的稱號，但現在已將這一稱號讓給了 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) 和 <strong>微軟</strong>(NASDAQ: MSFT)，可能是永久性的。然而，我認為這並不是蘋果的終點。根據該公司缺乏新創新產品以及幾乎不存在的人工智能戰略，我不會感到驚訝，如果在未來幾年內其他公司在市值上超過蘋果。</p>
</div><p>Three companies that I think can surpass Apple by 2030 are <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.13%), <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.49%)(GOOGL 0.49%), and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.69%). The paths that each stock needs to take to get there are different, but I think that it's doable within the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為到 2030 年可以超過蘋果的三家公司是 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -0.13%)、<strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 0.49%)(GOOGL 0.49%) 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.69%)。每隻股票需要走的路徑不同，但我認為在未來五年內是可行的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MDkvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823609%2Fcelebrating-stock-market-success.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's growth has been poor over the past few years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的增長在過去幾年中表現不佳</h2>
</div><p>First, let's tackle why Apple is struggling. After the COVID sales boom subsided for Apple, it failed to grow its revenue meaningfully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，讓我們來看看為什麼蘋果會陷入困境。在 COVID 銷售熱潮消退後，蘋果未能顯著增長其收入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/227bb8fd304c1eacdfe589c39f365d72.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/227bb8fd304c1eacdfe589c39f365d72.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts. YoY = year-over-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><p>While Apple can improve margins and repurchase shares, there is only so much effect those activities can have without increasing sales at a meaningful pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然蘋果可以提高利潤率和回購股票，但如果不以有意義的速度增加銷售，這些活動的影響是有限的。</p>
</div><p>There also don't appear to be any innovative technologies in the pipeline that can drive Apple's stock higher. Its AI launch flopped, and new iPhones haven't seen a game-changing feature in years. Unless something drastic changes, the mid-single-digit revenue growth for Apple is what's to be expected. That's far different from the trio it's being compared against.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前似乎也沒有任何創新技術在管道中可以推動蘋果的股票上漲。其人工智能推出失敗，新款 iPhone 多年來沒有出現顛覆性功能。除非發生重大變化，否則蘋果的中個位數收入增長是可以預期的。這與其比較的三家公司大相徑庭。</p>
</div><p>All three of these companies have produced far greater revenue growth than Apple recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這三家公司最近的收入增長遠遠超過蘋果。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61a68048644bb2a663474857ccc3a531.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61a68048644bb2a663474857ccc3a531.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms and Alphabet are growing two to three times faster than Apple, which will allow them to catch up to Apple if they can maintain their pace. With each company investing in AI and seeing success, I wouldn't be surprised if both these companies can keep up their growth rates for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 和谷歌的增長速度是蘋果的兩到三倍，如果它們能夠保持這種速度，將能夠趕上蘋果。隨着每家公司在人工智能方面的投資和成功，我不會感到驚訝，如果這兩家公司能夠在可預見的未來保持其增長率。</p>
</div><p>Amazon isn't growing significantly faster than Apple in terms of revenue. Still, due to the rise of high-margin businesses like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and advertising, its profits are increasing at a rapid pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜在收入方面的增長速度並沒有顯著快於蘋果。然而，由於高利潤業務如亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）和廣告的崛起，其利潤正在快速增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/232f70bb4938dde3eafc5b908f5bd090.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/232f70bb4938dde3eafc5b908f5bd090.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL EPS Basic (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts. EPS = earnings per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 基本每股收益（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts。每股收益 = 每股收益。</p>
</div><p>All three of these companies are growing earnings at a much faster pace than Apple, which is what the market cares about for mature businesses. This will allow all three to surpass Apple by 2030, but just how easily will each company achieve this goal?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這三家公司在盈利增長方面的速度遠快於蘋果，而這正是市場對成熟企業所關注的。這將使這三家公司在 2030 年前超過蘋果，但每家公司實現這一目標的難易程度如何呢？</p>
</div><h2>Valuation is another key consideration</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值是另一個關鍵考慮因素</h2>
</div><p>Despite Apple's slower-than-market growth rate, it trades at a massive premium to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), which trades for 23.2 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管蘋果的增長速度低於市場，但其交易價格遠高於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)，後者的前瞻性市盈率為 23.2 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/096ef740a6f716b1c212d6265f21d139.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/096ef740a6f716b1c212d6265f21d139.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts. PE = price-to-earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來自 YCharts。市盈率 = 價格與收益之比。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, it has a massive premium over Alphabet, which has posted substantially better results than Apple recently. If Apple and Alphabet were to trade at the same valuation, Alphabet would be worth more than Apple is today. So, the path for Alphabet to be worth more than Apple is fairly clear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，蘋果的估值也遠高於谷歌，後者最近的業績明顯優於蘋果。如果蘋果和谷歌以相同的估值交易，谷歌的市值將超過今天的蘋果。因此，谷歌超越蘋果的路徑相對明確。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms is valued at approximately the same level, so its growth needs to come from earnings. Even though Meta grew earnings per share at a 36% pace during the last quarter, let's say that slows to 20% growth while Apple accelerates to a 10% EPS growth rate. If that occurs, five years from now, Apple will have $157 billion in net income, while Meta will have $166 billion. If these two are valued at the same price, then Meta would be the larger company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 的估值大致相同，因此其增長需要來自盈利。儘管 Meta 在上個季度的每股收益增長了 36%，但假設這一增長放緩至 20%，而蘋果的每股收益增長加速至 10%。如果發生這種情況，五年後，蘋果的淨收入將達到 1570 億美元，而 Meta 將達到 1660 億美元。如果這兩者的估值相同，那麼 Meta 將成為更大的公司。</p>
</div><p>Amazon trades at a much higher premium than Apple. It has earned this due to its rapid earnings growth, but it's unlikely to last forever. Amazon and Meta have similar net incomes, and even if Amazon's earnings growth decelerates to a 20% pace and its valuation drops, it would still be valued at a comparable level to Meta Platforms, allowing it to surpass Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜的估值遠高於蘋果。這是由於其快速的盈利增長，但這種情況不太可能永遠持續。亞馬遜和 Meta 的淨收入相似，即使亞馬遜的盈利增長放緩至 20% 的速度，其估值下降，仍將與 Meta Platforms 的估值相當，從而使其超過蘋果。</p>
</div><p>All three of these companies have excellent growth prospects and appear to be great investments to consider purchasing now. Apple is a slow-growing and expensive stock, and I'd sell my shares if I owned any and invest in these three.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這三家公司都具有出色的增長前景，似乎是值得考慮現在購買的優秀投資。蘋果是一隻增長緩慢且昂貴的股票，如果我擁有蘋果的股票，我會賣掉我的股份，投資這三家公司。</p>
</div>

Prediction: These 3 Stocks Will Be Worth More Than Apple by 2030

- 蘋果公司在過去幾年中未能實現顯著增長，面臨市場競爭壓力。  
- 亞馬遜、谷歌和 Meta 預計將在 2030 年前超越蘋果，因其收入和盈利增長更快。  
- 蘋果的高估值與其低增長形成對比，可能導致投資者轉向其他公司。  

預測：到 2030 年，這三隻股票的價值將超過蘋果