<p>在 2025 年上半年，股市受到特朗普政府新關税政策的重大影響。現在，進入下半年一週，特朗普總統仍在不斷推出立法，進一步影響資本市場的方向。</p>
<p>7 月 4 日，特朗普簽署了 “宏偉美麗法案”。與許多立法一樣，該法案涵蓋了多種主題。但在本文中，我將特別指出法案中一個我認為可能對 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.15%）有利的部分。</p>
<p>讓我們探討一下這項宏偉法案如何在電動車（EV）市場引發變革，以及為什麼特斯拉現在可能會成為贏家。</p>
<h2>該法案如何影響特斯拉？</h2>
<p>在過去幾年中，許多企業有意識地努力投資於可持續性和綠色能源解決方案。這被更正式地稱為環境、社會和公司治理（ESG）。企業近年來探索 ESG 的一個原因是，這些倡議中的一些有資格獲得税收抵免。</p>
<p>不過，ESG 並不僅僅惠及企業。消費者也有機會從綠色能源税收補貼中受益。例如，喬·拜登總統的《通貨膨脹削減法案》（IRA）包含了税收激勵，以刺激對電動車而非傳統內燃機車輛的需求。</p>
<p>然而，特朗普的 “宏偉美麗法案” 旨在撤銷其中一些激勵措施。更具體地説，電動車税收抵免預計將在 9 月之前逐步取消。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/989efe7deb63765c97d8f2e859ece2a4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/989efe7deb63765c97d8f2e859ece2a4.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 數據來源：YCharts</p>
<p>如上圖所示，特斯拉股票對法案通過的反應並不好。由於國會山關於法案通過可能性的傳聞，股票在 6 月底首次大幅下跌。在 7 月初法案簽署成為法律後，特斯拉的股票進一步下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgyMTcxNTYwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgyMTcxNTYwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>電動車補貼的取消可能是特斯拉的隱性催化劑（暫時）</h2>
<p>電動車補貼的消失可能看起來是特斯拉業務的一種不利阻力。但作為一個逆向思維者，我認為事情並非如此。事實上，我認為特斯拉可能會從這些電動車税收抵免的取消中受益。</p>
<p>下表列出了特斯拉在電動車方面的生產和交付統計數據，以及過去六個季度電動車業務的收入增長數據。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>類別</th>
<th>2024 年第一季度</th>
<th>2024 年第二季度</th>
<th>2024 年第三季度</th>
<th>2024 年第四季度</th>
<th>2025 年第一季度</th>
<th>2025 年第二季度</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>生產</td>
<td>433,371</td>
<td>410,831</td>
<td>469,796</td>
<td>459,445</td>
<td>362,615</td>
<td>410,244</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>交付</td>
<td>386,810</td>
<td>443,956</td>
<td>462,890</td>
<td>495,570</td>
<td>336,681</td>
<td>384,122</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>汽車收入（同比增長）</td>
<td>(13%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
<td>尚未報告</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：特斯拉。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<p>在過去一年多的時間裏，特斯拉的生產和交付增長一直在放緩。正如電動車收入增長趨勢所表明的，特斯拉最大的銷售來源已經遭到重創，影響了公司的整體利潤率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c6dbe39aba787aa74cf88fdd388ff443.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c6dbe39aba787aa74cf88fdd388ff443.png"/></p>
<p>美國通貨膨脹率數據來源：YCharts</p>
<p>在我看來，這些不盡如人意的數字可能表明，消費者在購買電動車方面已經猶豫了相當長一段時間。即使有税收補貼，電動車仍然相當昂貴。而且，消費者可能擔心通貨膨脹，轉向電動車在大多數消費者看來更多的是一種奢侈，而非必需品。</p>
<p>然而，隨着通貨膨脹的改善以及一些 ESG 税收抵免的逐步取消，我認為某些消費者羣體可能會選擇在未來幾個月內最終購買電動車。</p>
<p>對於特斯拉來説，電動車税收抵免的逐步取消實際上可能為一些急需的需求提供助力，因為那些對購買電動車猶豫不決的消費者沒有太多時間來利用這些補貼。</p>
<h2>現在是購買特斯拉股票的好時機嗎？</h2>
<p>考慮到特斯拉股票已經大幅下跌，以及法案取消電動車税收抵免可能對公司有利，現在似乎是一個不錯的買入時機。然而，聰明的投資者知道事情並非如此簡單。</p>
<p>目前，特斯拉股票受到多種因素的重大影響——“宏偉美麗法案” 只是其中之一。除了特朗普的新政策外，特斯拉股票還受到上個月公司機器人出租車發佈的敍事以及與首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克新政黨成立相關的新聞的影響。</p>
<p>歸根結底，特斯拉可能會在下半年給投資者帶來超出預期的結果。然而，我認為電動車税收抵免的取消可能會導致對特斯拉車輛的需求，這是一個短期催化劑。至於長期前景，特斯拉的電動車增長仍然不明朗。</p>
<p>基於這些原因，我現在會選擇觀望，並繼續監測特斯拉的增長，以便更好地瞭解公司的長期發展軌跡。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

南方兩倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特朗普總統於 2025 年 7 月 4 日簽署的 “宏偉、美麗的法案” 可能會對特斯拉股票產生積極影響，儘管電動車税收抵免被取消。雖然該法案最初導致特斯拉股價下跌，但補貼的逐步取消可能會刺激需求，因為消費者急於在激勵措施消失之前購買電動車。特斯拉的生產和交付增長一直在放緩，但改善的通貨膨脹可能會鼓勵猶豫不決的買家。投資者可能會將此視為一個買入機會，因為包括新政策和特斯拉即將推出的機器人出租車在內的各種因素都會影響股票表現</p>

<p>During the first half of 2025, the stock market was heavily influenced by new tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration. Now, a week into the second half of the year, President Donald Trump hasn't stopped introducing legislation that will further sway the direction of the capital markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年上半年，股市受到特朗普政府新關税政策的重大影響。現在，進入下半年一週，特朗普總統仍在不斷推出立法，進一步影響資本市場的方向。</p>
</div><p>On July 4, Trump signed the &#34;big, beautiful bill&#34; into law. Like many pieces of legislation, the bill covers a variety of topics. But for this article specifically, I'm going to point out one particular section of the bill that I think could benefit <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 1.15%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月 4 日，特朗普簽署了 “宏偉美麗法案”。與許多立法一樣，該法案涵蓋了多種主題。但在本文中，我將特別指出法案中一個我認為可能對 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.15%）有利的部分。</p>
</div><p>Let's explore how the megabill could shake things up in the electric vehicle (EV) market and why Tesla could be a winner right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們探討一下這項宏偉法案如何在電動車（EV）市場引發變革，以及為什麼特斯拉現在可能會成為贏家。</p>
</div><h2>How does the bill impact Tesla?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>該法案如何影響特斯拉？</h2>
</div><p>Over the last several years, many businesses have made a cognizant effort to invest in sustainability and green energy solutions. This is more formally known as environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG). One reason corporations have explored ESG in recent years is because some of these initiatives are eligible for tax credits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年中，許多企業有意識地努力投資於可持續性和綠色能源解決方案。這被更正式地稱為環境、社會和公司治理（ESG）。企業近年來探索 ESG 的一個原因是，這些倡議中的一些有資格獲得税收抵免。</p>
</div><p>ESG does not solely benefit corporations, though. Consumers also have the opportunity to benefit from green energy tax subsidies. For example, President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) included tax incentives in order to spur demand for EVs over traditional combustion engine vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，ESG 並不僅僅惠及企業。消費者也有機會從綠色能源税收補貼中受益。例如，喬·拜登總統的《通貨膨脹削減法案》（IRA）包含了税收激勵，以刺激對電動車而非傳統內燃機車輛的需求。</p>
</div><p>However, Trump's &#34;big, beautiful bill&#34; seeks to roll back some of these incentives. More specifically, EV tax credits are expected to be phased out by September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特朗普的 “宏偉美麗法案” 旨在撤銷其中一些激勵措施。更具體地説，電動車税收抵免預計將在 9 月之前逐步取消。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/989efe7deb63765c97d8f2e859ece2a4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/989efe7deb63765c97d8f2e859ece2a4.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 數據來源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>As the graph above illustrates, Tesla stock has not reacted well to the bill being passed. Shares took an initial nosedive in late June, as rumors swirled on Capitol Hill regarding the likelihood of the bill being passed. Following the bill being signed into law in early July, shares of Tesla sold off even further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上圖所示，特斯拉股票對法案通過的反應並不好。由於國會山關於法案通過可能性的傳聞，股票在 6 月底首次大幅下跌。在 7 月初法案簽署成為法律後，特斯拉的股票進一步下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgyMTcxNTYwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824278%2Fgettyimages-182171560.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The removal of EV subsidies could be a hidden catalyst for Tesla (for now)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>電動車補貼的取消可能是特斯拉的隱性催化劑（暫時）</h2>
</div><p>The perception of EV subsidies going away might seem like an unwanted headwind for Tesla's business. But as a contrarian, I think there is more to the picture. In fact, I see Tesla benefiting from the removal of these EV tax credits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電動車補貼的消失可能看起來是特斯拉業務的一種不利阻力。但作為一個逆向思維者，我認為事情並非如此。事實上，我認為特斯拉可能會從這些電動車税收抵免的取消中受益。</p>
</div><p>The table below breaks down Tesla's production and delivery stats around its EVs, as well as revenue growth figures for the EV business over the last six quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下表列出了特斯拉在電動車方面的生產和交付統計數據，以及過去六個季度電動車業務的收入增長數據。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Category</th>
<th>Q1 2024</th>
<th>Q2 2024</th>
<th>Q3 2024</th>
<th>Q4 2024</th>
<th>Q1 2025</th>
<th>Q2 2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Production</td>
<td>433,371</td>
<td>410,831</td>
<td>469,796</td>
<td>459,445</td>
<td>362,615</td>
<td>410,244</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Deliveries</td>
<td>386,810</td>
<td>443,956</td>
<td>462,890</td>
<td>495,570</td>
<td>336,681</td>
<td>384,122</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Automotive revenue (YOY growth)</td>
<td>(13%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
<td>Not Yet Reported</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>類別</th>
<th>2024 年第一季度</th>
<th>2024 年第二季度</th>
<th>2024 年第三季度</th>
<th>2024 年第四季度</th>
<th>2025 年第一季度</th>
<th>2025 年第二季度</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>生產</td>
<td>433,371</td>
<td>410,831</td>
<td>469,796</td>
<td>459,445</td>
<td>362,615</td>
<td>410,244</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>交付</td>
<td>386,810</td>
<td>443,956</td>
<td>462,890</td>
<td>495,570</td>
<td>336,681</td>
<td>384,122</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>汽車收入（同比增長）</td>
<td>(13%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
<td>尚未報告</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Tesla. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：特斯拉。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><p>For more than a year now, Tesla's production and delivery growth has been decelerating. As the EV revenue growth trends make clear, Tesla's largest source of sales has been decimated -- taking a toll on the company's overall profit margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一年多的時間裏，特斯拉的生產和交付增長一直在放緩。正如電動車收入增長趨勢所表明的，特斯拉最大的銷售來源已經遭到重創，影響了公司的整體利潤率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c6dbe39aba787aa74cf88fdd388ff443.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c6dbe39aba787aa74cf88fdd388ff443.png"/></p>
<p>US Inflation Rate data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國通貨膨脹率數據來源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>In my view, these uninspiring figures could suggest that consumers have been hesitant to purchase an EV for quite some time now. Even with the tax subsidies, EVs are still quite expensive. And with consumers potentially worried about inflation, transitioning to an EV has largely been seen as more of a luxury than a necessity for most consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，這些不盡如人意的數字可能表明，消費者在購買電動車方面已經猶豫了相當長一段時間。即使有税收補貼，電動車仍然相當昂貴。而且，消費者可能擔心通貨膨脹，轉向電動車在大多數消費者看來更多的是一種奢侈，而非必需品。</p>
</div><p>However, with inflation improving and the phaseout of some ESG tax credits right around the corner, I think some consumer demographics may choose to finally purchase an EV in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，隨着通貨膨脹的改善以及一些 ESG 税收抵免的逐步取消，我認為某些消費者羣體可能會選擇在未來幾個月內最終購買電動車。</p>
</div><p>For Tesla, the phaseout of EV tax credits could actually provide some much-needed demand tailwinds as consumers who were on the fence about buying an EV don't have much time left to take advantage of the subsidies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於特斯拉來説，電動車税收抵免的逐步取消實際上可能為一些急需的需求提供助力，因為那些對購買電動車猶豫不決的消費者沒有太多時間來利用這些補貼。</p>
</div><h2>Is Tesla stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是購買特斯拉股票的好時機嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Given how much Tesla stock has sold off and the potential for the bill's removal of EV tax credits actually working in favor for the company, it might seem like now is a good time to buy the dip. Smart investors know there is more to the picture, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到特斯拉股票已經大幅下跌，以及法案取消電動車税收抵免可能對公司有利，現在似乎是一個不錯的買入時機。然而，聰明的投資者知道事情並非如此簡單。</p>
</div><p>Right now, Tesla stock is heavily influenced by several factors -- the &#34;big, beautiful bill&#34; being just one of them. In addition to Trump's new policies, Tesla stock is also moving based on narratives around the company's robotaxi launch last month, as well as news related to CEO Elon Musk's new political party formation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，特斯拉股票受到多種因素的重大影響——“宏偉美麗法案” 只是其中之一。除了特朗普的新政策外，特斯拉股票還受到上個月公司機器人出租車發佈的敍事以及與首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克新政黨成立相關的新聞的影響。</p>
</div><p>At the end of the day, Tesla may surprise investors with better-than-expected results during the second half of the year. However, my idea suggesting that the removal of EV tax credits could lead to demand for Tesla vehicles is a near-term catalyst. As far as the long-term picture is concerned, Tesla's EV growth remains cloudy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歸根結底，特斯拉可能會在下半年給投資者帶來超出預期的結果。然而，我認為電動車税收抵免的取消可能會導致對特斯拉車輛的需求，這是一個短期催化劑。至於長期前景，特斯拉的電動車增長仍然不明朗。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I would sit on the sidelines right now and continue monitoring Tesla's growth in order to get a better picture of the company's long-run trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於這些原因，我現在會選擇觀望，並繼續監測特斯拉的增長，以便更好地瞭解公司的長期發展軌跡。</p>
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Contrarian Opinion: President Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" Could Give a Big Boost to Tesla Stock... for Now

- 特朗普政府的新法案可能影響特斯拉的電動車市場。  
- 法案預計在九月前逐步取消電動車税收補貼。  
- 儘管短期內面臨挑戰，特斯拉可能從補貼取消中受益。

逆向觀點：特朗普總統的 “大而美麗的法案” 可能會暫時大幅提升特斯拉的股票