<p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.59%）是一家無需介紹的企業。這家龐大的消費科技公司因其廣受歡迎的產品和服務而成為一個標誌性品牌，消費者在全球範圍內使用這些產品和服務。這一定位使得公司成為全球最有價值的公司之一，目前市值為 3.1 萬億美元。</p>
<p>作為 “壯麗七俠” 的一員，蘋果在過去五年中表現出色，截至 7 月 9 日，股價上漲了 119%。儘管公司的股票比峯值低 19%，但這一表現仍然超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>。</p>
<p>蘋果的股票在五年後會在哪裏？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0NTYvYnVzaW5lc3MtYW5hbHlzdC10cmFkZXItc3RvY2tzLXRyZW5kcy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="442" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0NTYvYnVzaW5lc3MtYW5hbHlzdC10cmFkZXItc3RvY2tzLXRyZW5kcy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>蘋果將繼續保持主導地位</h2>
<p>毫無疑問，蘋果已經建立了全球最強大的品牌之一。iPhone、MacBook 和 AirPods 等硬件設備，以及音樂、支付、App Store 和廣告等服務，均為公司的成功做出了貢獻。目前大約有 24 億台活躍的蘋果設備。管理團隊表示，蘋果現在擁有超過 10 億個付費訂閲。這些數字令人驚歎。</p>
<p>這使得蘋果在科技領域中成為一個主導力量。我認為這種地位在未來五年內不會改變。這是因為蘋果強大的生態系統使客户保持忠誠。硬件、軟件和服務的結合使得競爭對手很難與之抗衡。</p>
<p>投資者應該接受的一件事是，蘋果未來的增長可能不會像過去那樣。蘋果在 2023 財年的收入下降了 2.8%，而在 2024 財年僅增長了 2%。共識觀點是，今財年的收入將增長 4.2%。在如此龐大的銷售基礎上，推動增長是非常困難的。</p>
<h2>向股東回報大量資本</h2>
<p>蘋果的盈利能力令人難以置信。公司以高利潤率銷售其產品和服務，這對底線產生了巨大影響。在最新的財季（2025 財年第二季度截至 3 月 29 日），蘋果的淨收入達到了 248 億美元。</p>
<p>管理層並沒有迴避向股東回報大量資本。在 2024 財年，蘋果花費了 949 億美元進行股票回購，同時支付了 152 億美元的股息。這延續了長期以來以有利的資本配置政策回報投資者的傳統。蘋果在未來五年內無法維持這一點的風險極小。</p>
<h2>理解估值的影響</h2>
<p>我過去一直認為蘋果的股票被高估。隨着收入增長放緩，這一觀點得到了加強。還有其他一些持續存在的挑戰需要考慮，比如與重要供應國的動態關税情況、在人工智能創新方面的落後以及監管問題。這些因素增加了不確定性。</p>
<p>投資者可能會認為是時候重新審視這一情況。畢竟，如前所述，蘋果的股票交易價格比 2024 年 12 月創下的峯值低 19%。今年以來，股票表現非常糟糕，截至 7 月 9 日下跌了 17%。投資者顯然不習慣看到成功企業出現這種情況。</p>
<p>然而，我仍然不相信蘋果的股票在未來五年內能夠超越標準普爾 500 指數。估值仍然很高。股票的市盈率為 32.4，超過了五年的平均水平。如果增長更好，這樣的估值是可以接受的，但事實並非如此。</p>
<p>根據華爾街共識分析師的估計，蘋果的每股收益將在 2024 財年至 2027 財年之間以 8.7% 的複合年增長率增長。這並沒有什麼值得興奮的。而且在沒有顯著的市盈率擴張的情況下，這一點並不確定，股票可能在 2030 年前落後於市場。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果的股票在過去五年中上漲了 119%，但目前仍低於其峯值 19%。儘管預計收入增長放緩，該公司仍然是一個強大的品牌和生態系統的主導力量。蘋果已經向股東返還了大量資本，在 2024 財年花費了 949 億美元用於股票回購和 152 億美元用於分紅。然而，關於估值、增長放緩和外部挑戰的擔憂表明，蘋果的股票在未來五年可能無法超越標準普爾 500 指數，預計的盈利增長率僅為 8.7%</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.59%) is a business that needs no introduction. The massive consumer tech enterprise has become an iconic brand, thanks to its popular products and services that are used by consumers across the globe. This positioning has made the company one of the world's most valuable, with a current market cap of $3.1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -0.59%）是一家無需介紹的企業。這家龐大的消費科技公司因其廣受歡迎的產品和服務而成為一個標誌性品牌，消費者在全球範圍內使用這些產品和服務。這一定位使得公司成為全球最有價值的公司之一，目前市值為 3.1 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>This &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; constituent has been a huge winner, with the stock up 119% in the past five years (as of July 9). That performance comes in ahead of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index even though shares of the company are 19% below their peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為 “壯麗七俠” 的一員，蘋果在過去五年中表現出色，截至 7 月 9 日，股價上漲了 119%。儘管公司的股票比峯值低 19%，但這一表現仍然超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Where will Apple stock be in five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的股票在五年後會在哪裏？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0NTYvYnVzaW5lc3MtYW5hbHlzdC10cmFkZXItc3RvY2tzLXRyZW5kcy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824456%2Fbusiness-analyst-trader-stocks-trends.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple will remain a dominant force</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果將繼續保持主導地位</h2>
</div><p>Without a doubt, Apple has developed one of the strongest brands on the planet. Hardware devices like the iPhone, MacBook, and AirPods, as well as services such as Music, Pay, the App Store, and advertising, have contributed to the company's success. There are roughly 2.4 billion active Apple devices out there. And the leadership team says that Apple now has more than 1 billion paid subscriptions. These are crazy numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，蘋果已經建立了全球最強大的品牌之一。iPhone、MacBook 和 AirPods 等硬件設備，以及音樂、支付、App Store 和廣告等服務，均為公司的成功做出了貢獻。目前大約有 24 億台活躍的蘋果設備。管理團隊表示，蘋果現在擁有超過 10 億個付費訂閲。這些數字令人驚歎。</p>
</div><p>This has made Apple a dominant force in the tech landscape. I don't think that position is going to change over the next five years. That's because Apple's powerful ecosystem keeps customers locked in. The combination of hardware, software, and services is extremely difficult for rivals to compete with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得蘋果在科技領域中成為一個主導力量。我認為這種地位在未來五年內不會改變。這是因為蘋果強大的生態系統使客户保持忠誠。硬件、軟件和服務的結合使得競爭對手很難與之抗衡。</p>
</div><p>One thing that investors should accept is that Apple's growth going forward probably won't resemble the past. Apple's revenue declined 2.8% in fiscal 2023 before rising by just 2% in fiscal 2024. The consensus view is that the top line will increase by 4.2% this fiscal year. It's difficult to move the needle on such a gargantuan sales base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者應該接受的一件事是，蘋果未來的增長可能不會像過去那樣。蘋果在 2023 財年的收入下降了 2.8%，而在 2024 財年僅增長了 2%。共識觀點是，今財年的收入將增長 4.2%。在如此龐大的銷售基礎上，推動增長是非常困難的。</p>
</div><h2>Returning lots of capital to shareholders</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>向股東回報大量資本</h2>
</div><p>Apple's profitability is unbelievably impressive. The company sells its products and services at high margins. And this has a huge impact on the bottom line. Apple raked in $24.8 billion in net income during the latest fiscal quarter (Q2 2025 ended March 29).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的盈利能力令人難以置信。公司以高利潤率銷售其產品和服務，這對底線產生了巨大影響。在最新的財季（2025 財年第二季度截至 3 月 29 日），蘋果的淨收入達到了 248 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Management has not shied away from returning lots of capital to shareholders. In fiscal 2024, Apple spent $94.9 billion on stock buybacks. It also paid $15.2 billion in dividends. That extends a long-running streak of rewarding its investors with a favorable capital allocation policy. There is minimal risk of Apple not being able to keep this going over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層並沒有迴避向股東回報大量資本。在 2024 財年，蘋果花費了 949 億美元進行股票回購，同時支付了 152 億美元的股息。這延續了長期以來以有利的資本配置政策回報投資者的傳統。蘋果在未來五年內無法維持這一點的風險極小。</p>
</div><h2>Understanding the valuation's impact</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>理解估值的影響</h2>
</div><p>My long-held view in the past was that Apple shares were overvalued. This perspective was strengthened by slowing revenue growth. There are other lingering challenges to think about, like the dynamic tariff situation with important supplier countries, falling behind in AI innovation, and regulatory concerns. These factors add uncertainty to the mix.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我過去一直認為蘋果的股票被高估。隨着收入增長放緩，這一觀點得到了加強。還有其他一些持續存在的挑戰需要考慮，比如與重要供應國的動態關税情況、在人工智能創新方面的落後以及監管問題。這些因素增加了不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Investors might think that it's time for a fresh look at the situation. After all, as mentioned, Apple shares are trading 19% below their peak, a high-water mark established in December 2024. The stock has performed very poorly this year, down 17% (as of July 9). Investors are definitely not used to seeing this from a successful business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者可能會認為是時候重新審視這一情況。畢竟，如前所述，蘋果的股票交易價格比 2024 年 12 月創下的峯值低 19%。今年以來，股票表現非常糟糕，截至 7 月 9 日下跌了 17%。投資者顯然不習慣看到成功企業出現這種情況。</p>
</div><p>However, I still don't believe Apple shares have what it takes to outperform the S&amp;P 500 over the next five years. The valuation is still steep. The stock can be purchased at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.4. That's above the five-year average. This would be acceptable if growth were better, but this isn't the case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我仍然不相信蘋果的股票在未來五年內能夠超越標準普爾 500 指數。估值仍然很高。股票的市盈率為 32.4，超過了五年的平均水平。如果增長更好，這樣的估值是可以接受的，但事實並非如此。</p>
</div><p>According to Wall Street consensus analyst estimates, Apple's earnings per share will grow at a compound annual rate of 8.7% between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2027. That's nothing to get excited about. And without meaningful multiple expansion, which isn't a sure thing at all, the stock could trail the market between now and 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據華爾街共識分析師的估計，蘋果的每股收益將在 2024 財年至 2027 財年之間以 8.7% 的複合年增長率增長。這並沒有什麼值得興奮的。而且在沒有顯著的市盈率擴張的情況下，這一點並不確定，股票可能在 2030 年前落後於市場。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 蘋果公司市值達 3.1 萬億美元，過去五年股價上漲 119%。  
- 2023 財年收入下降 2.8%，2024 財年預計增長 4.2%。  
- 股價仍高估，未來五年可能無法超越標普 500 指數。  

五年後蘋果的股票會達到什麼水平？