<p><strong>奈飛</strong>（NFLX -0.40%）的股東們在日曆上圈出了 7 月 17 日。這一天，公司將公佈其第二季度的財務業績。</p>
<p>這家流媒體公司今年表現非常出色。其股價今年上漲了 44%。然而，遠超預期的業績可能會使股價進一步飆升，而低於預期的收益則可能產生相反的效果。</p>
<p>投資者應該在奈飛發佈下一個季度更新之前購買其股票嗎？讓我們來看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1MzIvY291cGxlLXdhdGNoaW5nLXR2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1MzIvY291cGxlLXdhdGNoaW5nLXR2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>估值可能是個問題</h2>
<p>奈飛今年表現良好，得益於其出色的財務業績。公司 2024 年第四季度和本財年第一季度的季度更新都非常優秀。根據奈飛的指引，這一趨勢預計將在第二季度繼續。奈飛預計收入約為 110.4 億美元，比 2024 年第二季度增長 15.4%。</p>
<p>這家流媒體公司預計每股收益（EPS）為 7.03 美元，比上一個財年的同一時期高出 44.1%。公司的指引還暗示其營業利潤率將顯著上升，從 2024 年第二季度的 27.2% 上升至 33.3%。值得注意的是，華爾街分析師對公司第二季度的平均收入預測與奈飛相同，但他們預測的平均 EPS 為 7.06 美元，數據來源於 Yahoo! Finance。</p>
<p>股票在季度更新後的走勢部分取決於它是否能夠超出其指引（以及華爾街的預期），同時為第三季度提供同樣吸引人的預測。然而，在奈飛的情況下，有一個主要因素需要考慮：估值。奈飛的市盈率為 51 倍，這相當高，尤其是考慮到通信服務行業的平均水平為 19.5 倍。</p>
<p>這限制了奈飛在財報發佈後的上漲潛力。市場已經預期它會超出預期。這就是為什麼它的估值如此高的原因。</p>
<p>即使其業績與指引持平或略有超出，華爾街可能也會無動於衷。然而，如果公司業績低於預期，即使是稍微低於，或者其第三季度的指引未能達到華爾街的標準，投資者應該預期會出現拋售。</p>
<h2>最好關注長期</h2>
<p>考慮在 7 月 17 日之前購買奈飛股票的投資者應該評估他們的目標和投資期限。那些希望通過潛在的財報後股價上漲快速獲利的人將面臨巨大的風險。預測公司股票在季度更新後的表現幾乎是不可能的。市場有時對其反應是不可預測的。</p>
<p>然而，希望持有公司股票五年或更長時間的投資者應該認真考慮今天就開始建倉，即使股票的估值很高。</p>
<p>奈飛在 7 月 17 日之後可能會下跌，從而為投資者提供更具吸引力的入場點，但再次強調，這種情況是無法預測的。更重要的是，公司長期前景非常樂觀。這是推動其在 2025 年表現的另一個關鍵因素。</p>
<p>儘管新平台層出不窮，奈飛仍然保持着流媒體行業的領導地位。公司之所以能夠做到這一點，得益於其業務的微調，包括推出低價的廣告支持層。管理層曾對這一想法嗤之以鼻，但奈飛決定適應行業內的變化動態，這一決定被證明是明智的。</p>
<p>儘管對公司業務進行了這些調整，奈飛的核心戰略仍然保持不變。它依賴於製作或授權優質內容，以吸引觀眾，增加參與度，並使公司能夠更好地瞭解觀眾想觀看的內容，從而製作或授權更多相同類型的內容。</p>
<p>隨着奈飛吸引更多觀眾，這種動態只會得到改善，表明強大的網絡效應。公司的品牌名稱與流媒體同義，有助於增強其護城河。</p>
<p>最後，流媒體行業仍然存在巨大的市場空間。今年早些時候，奈飛估計有超過 6500 億美元的收入機會，這使其過去 12 個月的收入 402 億美元顯得微不足道。無論 7 月 17 日發生什麼，股票都應該帶來強勁的回報。這就是為什麼今天值得購買公司的股票。</p>

奈飛

<p>奈飛定於 7 月 17 日公佈其第二季度財務業績，今年股價上漲了 44%。分析師預計收入為 110.4 億美元，每股收益為 7.03 美元。然而，奈飛以 51 倍的預期市盈率的高估值可能會限制財報後的上漲空間。投資者應考慮他們的長期目標，因為在財報發佈後，股價可能會下跌，但奈飛強大的品牌和市場地位表明其長期前景穩健。流媒體行業仍然具有顯著的增長潛力，使得奈飛的股票成為值得投資的選擇</p>

<p><strong>Netflix</strong>'s (NFLX -0.40%) shareholders have July 17 circled on their calendar. That's the day the company will report its financial results for the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>奈飛</strong>（NFLX -0.40%）的股東們在日曆上圈出了 7 月 17 日。這一天，公司將公佈其第二季度的財務業績。</p>
</div><p>The streaming specialist has been on fire all year long. Its shares are up by 44% this year. However, much stronger-than-expected results could send the stock soaring even further -- and weaker-than-expected earnings could have the opposite effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家流媒體公司今年表現非常出色。其股價今年上漲了 44%。然而，遠超預期的業績可能會使股價進一步飆升，而低於預期的收益則可能產生相反的效果。</p>
</div><p>Should investors purchase Netflix's shares before it releases its next quarterly update? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者應該在奈飛發佈下一個季度更新之前購買其股票嗎？讓我們來看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1MzIvY291cGxlLXdhdGNoaW5nLXR2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824532%2Fcouple-watching-tv.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation could be an issue</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值可能是個問題</h2>
</div><p>Netflix has performed well this year because of its stellar financial results. The company's quarterly updates for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of the current fiscal year were both excellent. According to Netflix's guidance, this trend is expected to continue in the second quarter. Netflix expects revenue of approximately $11.04 billion, representing a 15.4% increase from the second quarter of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛今年表現良好，得益於其出色的財務業績。公司 2024 年第四季度和本財年第一季度的季度更新都非常優秀。根據奈飛的指引，這一趨勢預計將在第二季度繼續。奈飛預計收入約為 110.4 億美元，比 2024 年第二季度增長 15.4%。</p>
</div><p>The streaming specialist projected earnings per share (EPS) of $7.03, 44.1% higher than the comparable period of the previous fiscal year. The company's guidance also implies that its operating margin will jump significantly, going from 27.2% in Q2 2024 to 33.3%. Of note, Wall Street analysts have the same average revenue projection for the company for the second quarter, but they predict an average EPS of $7.06, according to Yahoo! Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家流媒體公司預計每股收益（EPS）為 7.03 美元，比上一個財年的同一時期高出 44.1%。公司的指引還暗示其營業利潤率將顯著上升，從 2024 年第二季度的 27.2% 上升至 33.3%。值得注意的是，華爾街分析師對公司第二季度的平均收入預測與奈飛相同，但他們預測的平均 EPS 為 7.06 美元，數據來源於 Yahoo! Finance。</p>
</div><p>The direction in which a stock moves after its quarterly update partly depends on whether it can exceed its guidance (and Wall Street's) while giving investors an equally attractive projection for the third quarter. There is one major thing to consider in Netflix's case, though: valuation. Netflix is trading at 51 times forward earnings. That's pretty steep, especially considering the average for the communication services sector is 19.5.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票在季度更新後的走勢部分取決於它是否能夠超出其指引（以及華爾街的預期），同時為第三季度提供同樣吸引人的預測。然而，在奈飛的情況下，有一個主要因素需要考慮：估值。奈飛的市盈率為 51 倍，這相當高，尤其是考慮到通信服務行業的平均水平為 19.5 倍。</p>
</div><p>That limits Netflix's post-earnings upside potential. The market is already expecting it to beat expectations. That's why it is commanding such a hefty premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這限制了奈飛在財報發佈後的上漲潛力。市場已經預期它會超出預期。這就是為什麼它的估值如此高的原因。</p>
</div><p>Even if its results are on par with or slightly exceed its guidance, Wall Street might just shrug. However, if the company falls short of expectations, even slightly, or its third-quarter guidance doesn't meet The Street's standards, investors should expect a sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使其業績與指引持平或略有超出，華爾街可能也會無動於衷。然而，如果公司業績低於預期，即使是稍微低於，或者其第三季度的指引未能達到華爾街的標準，投資者應該預期會出現拋售。</p>
</div><h2>It's best to focus on the long term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最好關注長期</h2>
</div><p>Investors considering buying Netflix's shares before July 17 should assess their goals and investment horizons. Those looking to make a quick buck on a potential post-earnings stock price jump would be taking a huge risk. It's next to impossible to predict how a company's shares will behave after a quarterly update. The market can sometimes be unpredictable in how it reacts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮在 7 月 17 日之前購買奈飛股票的投資者應該評估他們的目標和投資期限。那些希望通過潛在的財報後股價上漲快速獲利的人將面臨巨大的風險。預測公司股票在季度更新後的表現幾乎是不可能的。市場有時對其反應是不可預測的。</p>
</div><p>However, investors hoping to hold onto the company's shares for five years or more should seriously consider initiating a position today, even with the stock's steep premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，希望持有公司股票五年或更長時間的投資者應該認真考慮今天就開始建倉，即使股票的估值很高。</p>
</div><p>Netflix might dip after July 17 and give investors a more attractive entry point, but once again, it's impossible to predict. More importantly, the company's long-term prospects are excellent. That's another critical factor driving its performance in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛在 7 月 17 日之後可能會下跌，從而為投資者提供更具吸引力的入場點，但再次強調，這種情況是無法預測的。更重要的是，公司長期前景非常樂觀。這是推動其在 2025 年表現的另一個關鍵因素。</p>
</div><p>Netflix has remained the leader in streaming despite the rise of numerous new platforms. The company has achieved this thanks to slight changes to its business, including the launch of a low-price, ad-supported tier. Management had long scoffed at that idea, but Netflix decided to adapt to the changing dynamics within the industry -- a decision that proved wise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管新平台層出不窮，奈飛仍然保持着流媒體行業的領導地位。公司之所以能夠做到這一點，得益於其業務的微調，包括推出低價的廣告支持層。管理層曾對這一想法嗤之以鼻，但奈飛決定適應行業內的變化動態，這一決定被證明是明智的。</p>
</div><p>Despite these modifications to the company's business, Netflix's core strategy remains the same. It relies on producing or licensing top-notch content that attracts viewers, increases engagement, and enables the company to learn more about what its viewers want to watch, allowing it to produce or license more of the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管對公司業務進行了這些調整，奈飛的核心戰略仍然保持不變。它依賴於製作或授權優質內容，以吸引觀眾，增加參與度，並使公司能夠更好地瞭解觀眾想觀看的內容，從而製作或授權更多相同類型的內容。</p>
</div><p>This dynamic only improves as Netflix attracts more viewers, indicating a strong network effect. The company's brand name, which is synonymous with streaming, helps strengthen its moat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着奈飛吸引更多觀眾，這種動態只會得到改善，表明強大的網絡效應。公司的品牌名稱與流媒體同義，有助於增強其護城河。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, there is still massive whitespace in the streaming industry. Earlier this year, Netflix estimated a more than $650 billion revenue opportunity, which makes its trailing-12-month revenue of $40.2 billion look tiny in comparison. The stock should deliver strong returns regardless of what happens on July 17. That's why it's worth buying the company's shares today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，流媒體行業仍然存在巨大的市場空間。今年早些時候，奈飛估計有超過 6500 億美元的收入機會，這使其過去 12 個月的收入 402 億美元顯得微不足道。無論 7 月 17 日發生什麼，股票都應該帶來強勁的回報。這就是為什麼今天值得購買公司的股票。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Netflix Stock Before July 17?

- Netflix 將於 7 月 17 日發佈第二季度財報，預計收入約 110.4 億美元。  
- 公司預計每股收益為 7.03 美元，較去年同期增長 44.1%。  
- 儘管估值較高，長期投資者仍可考慮在此時買入。  

你是否應該在 7 月 17 日之前購買奈飛股票？