<p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT -0.01%) 的股價超過 500 美元，年初至今上漲 19.1% -- 遠遠超過 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數的 6.8% 增幅。</p>
<p>儘管 <strong>英偉達</strong> 是首家市值達到 4 萬億美元的公司，但微軟緊隨其後 -- 市值超過 3.7 萬億美元。</p>
<p>以下是微軟與其他投資機會的區別，它需要做些什麼才能證明 600 美元的股價合理，以及投資者在全力投入這隻成長股之前需要關注的一些問題。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MDgvYS1wZXJzb24tcG9pbnRpbmctb24tdGhlLWxpbmUtb2YtYW4tdXB3YXJkLXNsb3BpbmctY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="465" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MDgvYS1wZXJzb24tcG9pbnRpbmctb24tdGhlLWxpbmUtb2YtYW4tdXB3YXJkLXNsb3BpbmctY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>長期增長的秘訣</h2>
<p>微軟因其多元化的商業模式，繼續被認為是市場上最平衡的科技公司。</p>
<p>它在企業軟件領域是行業領導者，通過 Microsoft 365、其商業應用程序、Windows 操作系統、開發工具如 GitHub、遊戲軟件等。它也是雲計算巨頭，通過 Microsoft Azure 平台及其相關產品和服務。它還生產技術硬件，如 Surface 設備、Xbox 遊戲機及配件等。</p>
<p>微軟正在將人工智能（AI）整合到其各個業務部門，既面向消費者（通過 Copilot AI 助手），也面向企業（通過 Azure OpenAI 和 Azure AI 服務等工具）。</p>
<p>微軟為投資者提供了在一個公司旗下接觸多個不同終端市場的機會，擁有卓越的資產負債表、高利潤率和穩定的現金流。</p>
<h2>在充滿不確定性的行業中獲勝</h2>
<p>微軟表現如此出色並徘徊在歷史高點的原因可能是它在雲基礎設施和應用軟件領域的蓬勃發展，尤其是在人工智能時代。</p>
<p>這並非易事，因為雲計算領導者 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和第三名 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong> <strong>Alphabet</strong> 仍在積極投資其雲計算業務 -- 挑戰第二名微軟的市場份額保持和增長。像 <strong>甲骨文</strong> 和 <strong>國際商業機器公司</strong> 這樣的較小參與者也在成功擴展其雲產品。</p>
<p>投資者最初對企業軟件通過新工具和代理利用人工智能的潛力感到興奮，這些工具可以幫助用户節省時間，完成任務。然而，許多軟件股票在這種樂觀情緒減弱後大幅回落。</p>
<p>例如，<strong>Salesforce</strong> 今年迄今下跌 21%，在去年 12 月創下歷史新高後。<strong>Adobe</strong> 今年下跌超過 16%，比峯值下跌驚人的 46%。</p>
<p>在代理人工智能時代，哪些公司能夠蓬勃發展仍然存在許多不確定性 -- 這些工具可以在被請求後獨立完成多種任務，而不僅僅是響應提示。許多軟件即服務（SaaS）公司依賴於向用户和組織銷售訂閲和座位許可證。但如果 AI 代理能夠承擔一些這些任務，這可能會直接影響像 Salesforce 或 Adobe 這樣的公司的盈利能力。多年來，這些大型企業軟件公司的護城河首次看起來是可以被攻破的。如果一個代理能夠完成原本需要員工或個人擁有多個 SaaS 訂閲的工作，這將尤其重要。</p>
<p>微軟並未免受代理人工智能威脅，但相較於其他軟件公司，它處於有利位置，因為許多 Microsoft 365 應用程序的日常使用和簡單性，以及 Windows 操作系統與 Copilot 等 AI 工具在應用程序中的交叉使用。同樣，Azure AI 也集成在 Azure 生態系統中。對於 GitHub，微軟推出了 &#34;代理 DevOps&#34;，允許 AI 代理與用户協作，更快地開發軟件。</p>
<p>總之，微軟的商業模式和現有解決方案正在不斷演變，而不是停滯不前。它的適應能力，加上其他部門的強大，是微軟表現良好的原因，而許多其他企業軟件公司則面臨壓力。</p>
<h2>微軟的估值溢價</h2>
<p>微軟的股東不應因為股票表現火熱而感到自滿。公司需要證明用户願意持續為其 AI 工具付費，並且能夠維持其高利潤率和良好的增長率。</p>
<p>最近，微軟的股價增長超過了其盈利增長，因為投資者願意為今天的股票支付更高的價格，因為他們對其增長潛力持樂觀態度。因此，微軟的估值指標相對於其歷史平均水平相對較高。實際上，其未來市盈率（P/E）幾乎與其 10 年中位數市盈率相同。這意味着投資者實際上願意為微軟股票支付一年的溢價 -- 相信公司能夠隨着時間的推移實現其估值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9ad8805b704cdcfddb7db04326422e1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="538" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9ad8805b704cdcfddb7db04326422e1.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>還需注意微軟的自由現金流（FCF）與價格比率較高。</p>
<p>微軟是一頭現金奶牛，但它在研發上的支出如此之高，以至於其資本支出激增 -- 削弱了自由現金流。如果微軟的 AI 投資加速其盈利增長，這一策略可能會帶來回報。但就目前而言，股票確實偏貴，投資者在購買之前應對此有所瞭解。</p>
<h2>投資微軟股票的最佳方式</h2>
<p>在股市中，短期內任何事情都有可能發生。因此，微軟的股價可能僅憑熱情就能達到 600 美元。</p>
<p>但要讓微軟的股價達到每股 600 美元，並保持在這個水平之上並繼續增長，公司必須將其資本支出轉化為盈利增長。更具體地説，它必須保持或擴大在雲基礎設施中的市場份額，繼續開發有用的人工智能工具，並引領自主智能的發展。否則，投資者可能會開始質疑其高額資本支出是否值得，甚至是否有些浪費。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，微軟並不是將所有的資金都投入到人工智能上並寄希望於一場繁榮。該公司已將相當大一部分資本用於股票回購和分紅，同時保持着一個現金、現金等價物和短期投資遠超長期債務的資產負債表。換句話説，微軟並沒有將所有的希望都寄託在其人工智能投資上——但它確實執行了一項比過去幾年更為激進的資本配置策略。</p>
<p>總體而言，微軟仍然是一隻穩健的基礎成長股，投資者可以圍繞其構建投資組合。很容易看着微軟在後視鏡中的上漲，認為該股票被高估了。或者認為，直到公司能夠彌合預期與結果之間的差距之前，這隻股票都不值得購買。但僅僅因為其估值偏高而出售一家優秀公司的股份通常是個壞主意。</p>
<p>相反，更好的方法是讓你的贏家繼續增長，並允許它們隨着時間的推移逐漸實現其估值。我認為這是一種目前投資微軟的好方法。該股票並不便宜，但考慮到公司各方面都在全力運轉，或許也不應當便宜。因此，儘管微軟的股價確實快速上漲，但對於耐心的長期投資者來説，其股票仍然值得購買。</p>

微軟

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微軟每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微軟每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微軟的股票目前超過 500 美元，今年迄今上漲了 19.1%，顯著超過標準普爾 500 指數。微軟的市值超過 3.7 萬億美元，是企業軟件和雲計算的領導者，在其服務中整合了人工智能。儘管面臨來自亞馬遜和字母表等公司的競爭，微軟憑藉其多元化的商業模式蓬勃發展。然而，其股票估值較高，投資者對在新興人工智能技術面前維持增長和盈利能力持謹慎態度</p>

<p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.01%) is over $500 a share and up 19.1% year to date at the time of this writing -- handily outperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s 6.8% gain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT -0.01%) 的股價超過 500 美元，年初至今上漲 19.1% -- 遠遠超過 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數的 6.8% 增幅。</p>
</div><p>Although <strong>Nvidia</strong> is capturing the spotlight as the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap, Microsoft is right behind -- sporting a market cap of over $3.7 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 <strong>英偉達</strong> 是首家市值達到 4 萬億美元的公司，但微軟緊隨其後 -- 市值超過 3.7 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>Here's what differentiates Microsoft from other investment opportunities, what it would have to do to justify a $600 share price, and some concerns that investors will want to monitor before diving headfirst into this growth stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是微軟與其他投資機會的區別，它需要做些什麼才能證明 600 美元的股價合理，以及投資者在全力投入這隻成長股之前需要關注的一些問題。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MDgvYS1wZXJzb24tcG9pbnRpbmctb24tdGhlLWxpbmUtb2YtYW4tdXB3YXJkLXNsb3BpbmctY2hhcnQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824708%2Fa-person-pointing-on-the-line-of-an-upward-sloping-chart.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A recipe for long-term growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>長期增長的秘訣</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft continues to be arguably the most balanced tech company on the market due to its diversified business model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟因其多元化的商業模式，繼續被認為是市場上最平衡的科技公司。</p>
</div><p>It's an industry leader in enterprise software through Microsoft 365, its business applications, the Windows operating system, developer tools like GitHub, gaming software, and more. It is also a cloud computing giant through the Microsoft Azure platform and its associated products and services. It also makes tech hardware like Surface devices, Xbox gaming consoles and accessories, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在企業軟件領域是行業領導者，通過 Microsoft 365、其商業應用程序、Windows 操作系統、開發工具如 GitHub、遊戲軟件等。它也是雲計算巨頭，通過 Microsoft Azure 平台及其相關產品和服務。它還生產技術硬件，如 Surface 設備、Xbox 遊戲機及配件等。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is integrating artificial intelligence (AI) across its business segments for both consumers (through Copilot AI assistants) and for enterprises (through tools like Azure OpenAI and Azure AI services).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟正在將人工智能（AI）整合到其各個業務部門，既面向消費者（通過 Copilot AI 助手），也面向企業（通過 Azure OpenAI 和 Azure AI 服務等工具）。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft offers investors exposure to many different end markets under the umbrella of one company with an exceptional balance sheet, high margins, and stable cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟為投資者提供了在一個公司旗下接觸多個不同終端市場的機會，擁有卓越的資產負債表、高利潤率和穩定的現金流。</p>
</div><h2>A winner in an industry riddled with uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在充滿不確定性的行業中獲勝</h2>
</div><p>Possibly the simplest reason why Microsoft is doing so well and hovering around an all-time high is that its thriving in both the cloud infrastructure and application software niches in the age of AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟表現如此出色並徘徊在歷史高點的原因可能是它在雲基礎設施和應用軟件領域的蓬勃發展，尤其是在人工智能時代。</p>
</div><p>This has been no easy task, as both cloud leader <strong>Amazon</strong> and third-place player <strong>Alphabet</strong> continue to aggressively invest in their cloud computing businesses -- challenging second-place Microsoft's efforts to hold and gain market share. Smaller players like <strong>Oracle</strong> and <strong>International Business Machines</strong> are also successfully building out their cloud offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並非易事，因為雲計算領導者 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和第三名 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong> <strong>Alphabet</strong> 仍在積極投資其雲計算業務 -- 挑戰第二名微軟的市場份額保持和增長。像 <strong>甲骨文</strong> 和 <strong>國際商業機器公司</strong> 這樣的較小參與者也在成功擴展其雲產品。</p>
</div><p>Investors were initially excited about the potential for enterprise software to capitalize on AI through new tools and agents that would save users time by helping them create and accomplish tasks. However, many software stocks have pulled back considerably as that optimism has moderated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者最初對企業軟件通過新工具和代理利用人工智能的潛力感到興奮，這些工具可以幫助用户節省時間，完成任務。然而，許多軟件股票在這種樂觀情緒減弱後大幅回落。</p>
</div><p><strong>Salesforce</strong>, for example, is down 21% year to date after hitting an all-time high in December. <strong>Adobe</strong> is down more than 16% this year and a staggering 46% from its peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>Salesforce</strong> 今年迄今下跌 21%，在去年 12 月創下歷史新高後。<strong>Adobe</strong> 今年下跌超過 16%，比峯值下跌驚人的 46%。</p>
</div><p>There are a lot of question marks as to which companies will thrive in the age of agentic AI -- tools that can do a variety of tasks independently once asked, rather than simply responding to prompts. Many software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies rely on selling subscriptions and seat licenses to users and organizations. But if AI agents can take on some of those tasks, that could directly impact the profitability of a company like Salesforce or Adobe. For the first time in years, the moats of some of these large enterprise software companies look penetrable. That could be especially significant if an agent can do the work that would have required an employee or individual to have several different SaaS subscriptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在代理人工智能時代，哪些公司能夠蓬勃發展仍然存在許多不確定性 -- 這些工具可以在被請求後獨立完成多種任務，而不僅僅是響應提示。許多軟件即服務（SaaS）公司依賴於向用户和組織銷售訂閲和座位許可證。但如果 AI 代理能夠承擔一些這些任務，這可能會直接影響像 Salesforce 或 Adobe 這樣的公司的盈利能力。多年來，這些大型企業軟件公司的護城河首次看起來是可以被攻破的。如果一個代理能夠完成原本需要員工或個人擁有多個 SaaS 訂閲的工作，這將尤其重要。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft isn't immune to the threat of agentic AI, but it is in an advantageous position relative to other software companies because of the everyday use and simplicity of many of the Microsoft 365 apps and the crossover between the Windows operating system and AI tools like Copilot across applications. Similarly, Azure AI is integrated into the Azure ecosystem. For GitHub, Microsoft has introduced &#34;agentic DevOps,&#34; which allows AI agents to collaborate with users to develop software faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟並未免受代理人工智能威脅，但相較於其他軟件公司，它處於有利位置，因為許多 Microsoft 365 應用程序的日常使用和簡單性，以及 Windows 操作系統與 Copilot 等 AI 工具在應用程序中的交叉使用。同樣，Azure AI 也集成在 Azure 生態系統中。對於 GitHub，微軟推出了 &#34;代理 DevOps&#34;，允許 AI 代理與用户協作，更快地開發軟件。</p>
</div><p>In sum, Microsoft's business model and existing solutions are evolving, not remaining stagnant. Its ability to adapt, paired with the strength of its other segments, is why Microsoft is doing well while many other enterprise software companies are under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，微軟的商業模式和現有解決方案正在不斷演變，而不是停滯不前。它的適應能力，加上其他部門的強大，是微軟表現良好的原因，而許多其他企業軟件公司則面臨壓力。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft commands a premium valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟的估值溢價</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft shareholders shouldn't get complacent just because the stock has been red-hot. The company will need to demonstrate that users are consistently willing to pay for its AI tools and that it can sustain its high margins and decent growth rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟的股東不應因為股票表現火熱而感到自滿。公司需要證明用户願意持續為其 AI 工具付費，並且能夠維持其高利潤率和良好的增長率。</p>
</div><p>Lately, Microsoft's stock price growth has been outpacing its earnings growth as investors are willing to pay a higher price for the stock today because they are optimistic about its growth potential. As a result, Microsoft's valuation metrics are relatively high compared to their historical averages. In fact, its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is nearly identical to its 10-year median P/E. Meaning investors are essentially willing to pay a year's worth of premium for Microsoft stock today -- trusting that the company can grow into its valuation over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，微軟的股價增長超過了其盈利增長，因為投資者願意為今天的股票支付更高的價格，因為他們對其增長潛力持樂觀態度。因此，微軟的估值指標相對於其歷史平均水平相對較高。實際上，其未來市盈率（P/E）幾乎與其 10 年中位數市盈率相同。這意味着投資者實際上願意為微軟股票支付一年的溢價 -- 相信公司能夠隨着時間的推移實現其估值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9ad8805b704cdcfddb7db04326422e1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d9ad8805b704cdcfddb7db04326422e1.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Also note Microsoft's elevated price to free cash flow (FCF).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>還需注意微軟的自由現金流（FCF）與價格比率較高。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is a cash cow, but it is spending so much on research and development that its capital expenditures are spiking -- cutting into FCF. That strategy could pay off if Microsoft's AI investments accelerate its earnings growth. But for now, the stock is definitely on the expensive side, which is something investors should be aware of before buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟是一頭現金奶牛，但它在研發上的支出如此之高，以至於其資本支出激增 -- 削弱了自由現金流。如果微軟的 AI 投資加速其盈利增長，這一策略可能會帶來回報。但就目前而言，股票確實偏貴，投資者在購買之前應對此有所瞭解。</p>
</div><h2>The best way to approach Microsoft stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資微軟股票的最佳方式</h2>
</div><p>In the stock market, anything can happen in the short term. So Microsoft could get to $600 a share on euphoria alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股市中，短期內任何事情都有可能發生。因此，微軟的股價可能僅憑熱情就能達到 600 美元。</p>
</div><p>But for Microsoft to reach $600 a share, stay above that level, and continue growing, the company must convert its capex into earnings growth. Or more specifically, it must hold or grow its market share in cloud infrastructure, continue developing useful AI tools, and spearhead agentic AI. Otherwise, investors may start to question whether its high capex is worthwhile or borderline wasteful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但要讓微軟的股價達到每股 600 美元，並保持在這個水平之上並繼續增長，公司必須將其資本支出轉化為盈利增長。更具體地説，它必須保持或擴大在雲基礎設施中的市場份額，繼續開發有用的人工智能工具，並引領自主智能的發展。否則，投資者可能會開始質疑其高額資本支出是否值得，甚至是否有些浪費。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth mentioning that Microsoft isn't just throwing all of its dry powder on AI and hoping for a boom. The company has allocated a considerable amount of capital toward stock buybacks and dividends while maintaining a balance sheet with far more cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments than long-term debt. In other words, Microsoft isn't betting the farm on its AI investments -- but it is executing a more aggressive capital allocation strategy than it has in years past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，微軟並不是將所有的資金都投入到人工智能上並寄希望於一場繁榮。該公司已將相當大一部分資本用於股票回購和分紅，同時保持着一個現金、現金等價物和短期投資遠超長期債務的資產負債表。換句話説，微軟並沒有將所有的希望都寄託在其人工智能投資上——但它確實執行了一項比過去幾年更為激進的資本配置策略。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Microsoft remains a solid, foundational growth stock that investors can build a portfolio around. It would be easy to look at the run-up Microsoft has in its rear-view mirror and say the stock is overvalued. Or to say that the stock won't be worth buying until the company can bridge the gap between expectations and results. But selling shares of an excellent business just because its valuation is on the pricey side is usually a bad idea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，微軟仍然是一隻穩健的基礎成長股，投資者可以圍繞其構建投資組合。很容易看着微軟在後視鏡中的上漲，認為該股票被高估了。或者認為，直到公司能夠彌合預期與結果之間的差距之前，這隻股票都不值得購買。但僅僅因為其估值偏高而出售一家優秀公司的股份通常是個壞主意。</p>
</div><p>Rather, a better approach is to let your winners run and allow them to grow into their valuations over time. I think that's a good approach to investing in Microsoft right now. The stock isn't cheap, but it arguably doesn't deserve to be, given that the company is firing on all cylinders. So, while Microsoft has certainly run up far and fast, its shares could still be worth buying for patient long-term investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，更好的方法是讓你的贏家繼續增長，並允許它們隨着時間的推移逐漸實現其估值。我認為這是一種目前投資微軟的好方法。該股票並不便宜，但考慮到公司各方面都在全力運轉，或許也不應當便宜。因此，儘管微軟的股價確實快速上漲，但對於耐心的長期投資者來説，其股票仍然值得購買。</p>
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Microsoft: Next Stop $600 or Has the Growth Stock Run Up Too Far, Too Fast?

- 微軟股價超過 500 美元，年初至今上漲 19.1%，超越標普 500 的 6.8% 增長。  
- 微軟在雲計算和企業軟件領域表現強勁，市場價值超過 3.7 萬億美元。  
- 投資者需關注其高估值及能否持續增長，尤其是在 AI 領域的表現。  

微軟：下一站是 600 美元，還是成長股漲得過快過遠了？