<p>儘管投資者經歷了一段顛簸的旅程，但無人能否認 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.14%）已經成為一隻極為成功的股票。在過去的 10 年中，股價飆升了 1700%（截至 7 月 10 日）。公司的收入增長確實放緩，但特斯拉現在持續盈利，這是一個積極的發展。</p>
<p>儘管目前業務可能並未全面開花，市場仍然繼續給予特斯拉信任。股價距離去年 12 月的峯值下跌了 35%，但以 170.4 的市盈率來看，仍然非常昂貴。似乎無論基本面如何變化，特斯拉總是處於高估值狀態。</p>
<p>現有股東以及希望購買這隻電動車（EV）股票的投資者需要了解當前的情況。以下是我們展望特斯拉未來時最重要的事項。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ2NjcvdHdvLXRlc2xhcy1wYXJrZWQtbmVhci1lYWNoLW90aGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ2NjcvdHdvLXRlc2xhcy1wYXJrZWQtbmVhci1lYWNoLW90aGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>寄望於不同的未來</h2>
<p>任何時候，當估值像特斯拉這樣高時，清楚表明市場相信未來將會非常光明。這正是創始人兼首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克讓股東們相信的。在這種情況下，主要關注的焦點是其完全自動駕駛（FSD）技術，這也是特斯拉最終成功和當前估值的依賴所在。</p>
<p>經過多次延遲，特斯拉終於在 6 月在德克薩斯州奧斯丁推出了一項機器人出租車服務。這是一次非常有限且受控的發佈，僅面向小範圍內的特定人羣。雖然這些車輛中有監督人員，但仍然出現了駕駛錯誤。然而，儘管在 FSD 和機器人出租車競賽中顯著落後於 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo，公司仍然值得讚揚，能夠走到這一步。</p>
<p>將機器人出租車服務帶到全球城市的財務回報是巨大的。因此，馬斯克和特斯拉如此專注於這一首要目標是有道理的。根據凱西·伍德和方舟投資的説法，這是一個數萬億美元的機會。</p>
<p>要使特斯拉的戰略成功，不僅需要銷售更多的電動車，還需要這些人將他們的汽車提供給機器人出租車服務。通過這種方式，特斯拉將能夠迅速擴大其車隊，如果能夠削弱 <strong>Uber</strong> 和 <strong>Lyft</strong> 在美國的市場領先地位，可能會獲得非常高的利潤收入。如果 FSD 能夠降低出行成本，那麼需求可能會顯著增長，從而為這一方程式提供上行空間。</p>
<h2>如果特斯拉保持不變呢？</h2>
<p>投資者需要意識到，特斯拉實現廣泛的機器人出租車採用遠非確定。到目前為止，馬斯克過度承諾而未能兑現。顯然，存在重大的監管障礙，安全性是主要關注點。而乘客必須適應坐在沒有人駕駛的汽車中（或者根本沒有方向盤）。</p>
<p>這些都是目前無人能解答的大問題。時間會證明事情的發展。這意味着，今天願意購買該股票的投資者暗示特斯拉將在其 FSD 能力上取得巨大成功，以至於公司的盈利能力在五年或十年後將大幅提高。</p>
<p>這是我樂意放棄的賭注。特斯拉的商業模式不變的可能性依然存在。在未來，這家公司仍可能在銷售電動車。在這種情況下，特斯拉的多頭將不會滿意，特斯拉將應得一個更低的市盈率倍數。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

南方兩倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票在過去十年中飆升了 1700%，但其當前的市盈率為 170.4，儘管收入增長放緩，但仍顯示出高估值。公司的未來取決於其完全自動駕駛（FSD）技術，最近在奧斯丁有限推出了一項機器人出租車服務。儘管這帶來了潛在的數萬億美元機會，但仍面臨重大監管和安全挑戰。投資者必須考慮 FSD 採用的相關不確定性，以及特斯拉可能繼續主要作為電動車銷售商的可能性，這可能導致估值降低</p>

<p>While it has taken investors on a bumpy drive, no one can deny that <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 1.14%) has worked out to be a wildly successful stock. In the past 10 years, shares have rocketed 1,700% higher (as of July 10). The company's revenue growth has slowed, to be sure, but Tesla is now consistently profitable, which is a positive development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管投資者經歷了一段顛簸的旅程，但無人能否認 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.14%）已經成為一隻極為成功的股票。在過去的 10 年中，股價飆升了 1700%（截至 7 月 10 日）。公司的收入增長確實放緩，但特斯拉現在持續盈利，這是一個積極的發展。</p>
</div><p>Even though the business might not be firing on all cylinders right now, the market continues to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt. Shares trade 35% off their peak from December last year, but they're very expensive, at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 170.4. It seems that Tesla is always at a nosebleed valuation regardless of what's going on with the underlying fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管目前業務可能並未全面開花，市場仍然繼續給予特斯拉信任。股價距離去年 12 月的峯值下跌了 35%，但以 170.4 的市盈率來看，仍然非常昂貴。似乎無論基本面如何變化，特斯拉總是處於高估值狀態。</p>
</div><p>Existing shareholders, as well as those investors looking to buy the electric vehicle (EV) stock, need to understand what's going on. Here's what matters most as we look at Tesla's future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現有股東以及希望購買這隻電動車（EV）股票的投資者需要了解當前的情況。以下是我們展望特斯拉未來時最重要的事項。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ2NjcvdHdvLXRlc2xhcy1wYXJrZWQtbmVhci1lYWNoLW90aGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824667%2Ftwo-teslas-parked-near-each-other.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Betting on a different future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>寄望於不同的未來</h2>
</div><p>Anytime there's a valuation as high as Tesla's, it's a clear indication that the market believes the future will be incredibly bright. And that's exactly what founder and CEO Elon Musk has gotten shareholders to believe. In this case, the main thing to focus on is its full self-driving (FSD) technology, which is what Tesla's ultimate success and current valuation depend on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何時候，當估值像特斯拉這樣高時，清楚表明市場相信未來將會非常光明。這正是創始人兼首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克讓股東們相信的。在這種情況下，主要關注的焦點是其完全自動駕駛（FSD）技術，這也是特斯拉最終成功和當前估值的依賴所在。</p>
</div><p>After many delays, Tesla finally introduced a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas in June. It was a very limited and controlled launch to a select number of people in a small area. The cars, which had supervisors in them, did make driving errors. However, the company deserves credit for getting to this point, even though it's significantly behind <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Waymo in the FSD and robotaxi race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經過多次延遲，特斯拉終於在 6 月在德克薩斯州奧斯丁推出了一項機器人出租車服務。這是一次非常有限且受控的發佈，僅面向小範圍內的特定人羣。雖然這些車輛中有監督人員，但仍然出現了駕駛錯誤。然而，儘管在 FSD 和機器人出租車競賽中顯著落後於 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo，公司仍然值得讚揚，能夠走到這一步。</p>
</div><p>The financial reward of one day bringing a robotaxi service to cities across the world is massive. So, it makes sense why Musk and Tesla are so focused on this top objective. According to Cathie Wood and Ark Invest, this is a multitrillion-dollar opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將機器人出租車服務帶到全球城市的財務回報是巨大的。因此，馬斯克和特斯拉如此專注於這一首要目標是有道理的。根據凱西·伍德和方舟投資的説法，這是一個數萬億美元的機會。</p>
</div><p>To make Tesla's strategy a success, it involves not only selling more of its EVs but having these people offer up their cars to the robotaxi service. In this way, Tesla would be able to rapidly scale up its fleet, earning what could be very high-margin revenue if it can chip away at the leading market positions of <strong>Uber</strong> and <strong>Lyft</strong>, at least in the U.S. And if FSD can bring down the cost of travel, then perhaps demand would grow meaningfully, providing upside to the equation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要使特斯拉的戰略成功，不僅需要銷售更多的電動車，還需要這些人將他們的汽車提供給機器人出租車服務。通過這種方式，特斯拉將能夠迅速擴大其車隊，如果能夠削弱 <strong>Uber</strong> 和 <strong>Lyft</strong> 在美國的市場領先地位，可能會獲得非常高的利潤收入。如果 FSD 能夠降低出行成本，那麼需求可能會顯著增長，從而為這一方程式提供上行空間。</p>
</div><h2>What if Tesla stays the same?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果特斯拉保持不變呢？</h2>
</div><p>Investors need to realize that it's far from a certainty that Tesla achieves broad robotaxi adoption. Up until this point, Musk has overpromised and underdelivered. There are obviously major regulatory hurdles to overcome, with safety being the leading concern. And riders must get comfortable sitting in a car that has no one behind the wheel (or no wheel at all).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者需要意識到，特斯拉實現廣泛的機器人出租車採用遠非確定。到目前為止，馬斯克過度承諾而未能兑現。顯然，存在重大的監管障礙，安全性是主要關注點。而乘客必須適應坐在沒有人駕駛的汽車中（或者根本沒有方向盤）。</p>
</div><p>These are big question marks that no one has answers for at this point. Time will tell how things play out. This means that investors who are comfortable buying the stock today are implying that Tesla will find monster success with its FSD capabilities, enough so that the company's earnings power will be substantially higher five or 10 years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些都是目前無人能解答的大問題。時間會證明事情的發展。這意味着，今天願意購買該股票的投資者暗示特斯拉將在其 FSD 能力上取得巨大成功，以至於公司的盈利能力在五年或十年後將大幅提高。</p>
</div><p>That's a bet I'll gladly skip out on. There remains a good possibility that Tesla's business model doesn't change. And in the future, this company could still be selling EVs. In that scenario, something the Tesla bulls would not be pleased with, Tesla would be deserving of a much lower P/E multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是我樂意放棄的賭注。特斯拉的商業模式不變的可能性依然存在。在未來，這家公司仍可能在銷售電動車。在這種情況下，特斯拉的多頭將不會滿意，特斯拉將應得一個更低的市盈率倍數。</p>
</div>

1 Thing That Matters Most for Tesla Stock Investors

- 特斯拉股票在過去 10 年上漲了 1,700%，現已實現持續盈利。  
- 儘管面臨高估值和市場質疑，特斯拉仍專注於全自動駕駛技術。  
- 投資者需警惕特斯拉未來的機器人出租車服務能否成功。  

特斯拉股票投資者最關注的關鍵因素