<p>消費者價格指數預計在六月上漲 0.3%</p><p>核心 CPI 預計上漲 0.3%；同比上漲 3.0%</p><p>六月可能標誌着關税引發的價格上漲的開始</p><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p><p>華盛頓，7 月 15 日（路透社）- 美國消費者價格在六月可能有所上升，這可能標誌着長期預期的關税引發的通貨膨脹增加的開始，這使得美聯儲在恢復降息方面保持謹慎。</p><p>勞工部週二發佈的消費者價格指數報告預計將顯示上個月汽油價格反彈以及一些受關税影響商品的成本上升。二月至五月的通脹數據表現疲軟，導致特朗普總統要求美國中央銀行降低借貸成本。</p><p>但隨着沃爾瑪等零售商警告價格上漲，大多數經濟學家預計價格壓力將在今夏開始積聚，並持續到年底。他們表示，由於企業仍在銷售關税生效前積累的庫存，通脹對特朗普的廣泛進口關税反應緩慢。商業調查顯示，今夏通脹將上升。特朗普上週宣佈，針對包括墨西哥、日本、加拿大和巴西在內的多個國家的進口關税將於 8 月 1 日生效，此外還包括歐盟。</p><p>“六月的 CPI 報告可能會顯示通脹開始再次增強，儘管在此時並不足以讓美聯儲官員感到擔憂，” 富國銀行高級經濟學家 Sarah House 表示。“雖然庫存前置減輕了提高商品價格的必要性，但隨着關税前的庫存減少，企業吸收更高進口關税的難度將越來越大。”</p><p>根據路透社對經濟學家的調查，CPI 上個月可能上漲 0.3%，而五月份僅上漲 0.1%。這將是自一月份以來的最大增幅，汽油價格在連續四個月下降後可能反彈。經濟學家預計食品價格將温和上漲，得益於禽流感疫情減緩導致雞蛋成本的適度下降。</p><p>在截至六月的 12 個月中，CPI 預計將上漲 2.7%，而五月份上漲 2.4%。</p><h3>核心通脹回暖</h3><p>剔除波動較大的食品和能源成分後，CPI 預計上漲 0.3%，而五月份僅上漲 0.1%。這一數據也將是自一月份以來所謂核心 CPI 的最大增幅，預計主要來自一些受關税影響的商品，包括傢俱和娛樂產品。</p><p>“有軼事報告表明，關税相關的價格上漲在六月開始頻繁出現，但我預計大部分影響將在七月和八月顯現，” 桑坦德美國資本市場首席經濟學家 Stephen Stanley 表示。</p><p>然而，商品價格的穩固上漲可能會被服務成本的適度上漲所抵消。疲軟的需求限制了機票以及酒店和汽車旅館等服務相關類別的價格上漲。</p><p>在截至六月的 12 個月中，核心 CPI 通脹預計上漲 3.0%，而此前連續三個月上漲 2.8%。美聯儲追蹤不同的通脹指標以實現其 2% 的目標。預計中央銀行將在本月晚些時候的政策會議結束時將基準隔夜利率維持在 4.25%-4.50% 區間。上週發佈的美聯儲 6 月 17-18 日會議紀要顯示，只有 “幾位” 官員表示他們認為利率可能在 7 月 29-30 日的會議上下降。</p><p>“即使服務價格放緩並不足以使整體核心 CPI 保持低迷，只有適度的服務通脹也應是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，表明更高的商品價格並未導致廣泛的通脹壓力，” 花旗集團經濟學家 Veronica Clark 表示。“這應該使美聯儲官員在九月份降低利率時感到舒適，即使在接下來的幾個月中出現一些更強的通脹數據。”</p><p>高盛預測未來幾個月核心 CPI 通脹將月增 0.3% 至 0.4%，反映出消費電子、汽車和服裝價格因關税而上漲。該投資銀行預計對核心服務通脹的短期影響有限。</p>

<p>美國的通貨膨脹預計將在 6 月份上升，消費者物價指數（CPI）預計將增加 0.3%。這標誌着可能出現因關税引發的價格上漲，特別是在汽油和對關税敏感的商品方面。經濟學家預測，CPI 同比增長 2.7%，核心 CPI 增長 3.0%。儘管這些增長存在，但由於整體通脹壓力仍然温和，美聯儲可能會維持利率不變。分析師預計，由於對進口商品的關税，未來幾個月價格將繼續上漲，但對核心服務通脹的影響有限</p>

<p>Consumer price index expected to increase 0.3% in June</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消費者價格指數預計在六月上漲 0.3%</p>
</div><p>Core CPI forecast to be up 0.3%; rise 3.0% on year-over-year basis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心 CPI 預計上漲 0.3%；同比上漲 3.0%</p>
</div><p>June could mark the start of tariff-induced price rises</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>六月可能標誌着關税引發的價格上漲的開始</p>
</div><p>By Lucia Mutikani</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p>
</div><p>WASHINGTON, July 15 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices likely picked up in June, potentially marking the start of a long-anticipated, tariff-induced increase in inflation that has left the Federal Reserve cautious about resuming its interest rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華盛頓，7 月 15 日（路透社）- 美國消費者價格在六月可能有所上升，這可能標誌着長期預期的關税引發的通貨膨脹增加的開始，這使得美聯儲在恢復降息方面保持謹慎。</p>
</div><p>The Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department on Tuesday is expected to show a rebound in gasoline prices and higher costs for some tariff-sensitive goods last month. Inflation readings from February through May were on the soft side, leading to demands by President Donald Trump for the U.S. central bank to lower borrowing costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勞工部週二發佈的消費者價格指數報告預計將顯示上個月汽油價格反彈以及一些受關税影響商品的成本上升。二月至五月的通脹數據表現疲軟，導致特朗普總統要求美國中央銀行降低借貸成本。</p>
</div><p>But with retailers like Walmart (WMT.N) warning of price increases, most economists expect price pressures to begin building up beginning this summer and stretching through the end of the year. They said inflation has been slow to respond to Trump’s sweeping import duties because businesses were still selling stock accumulated before the tariffs came into effect. Business surveys have pointed to inflation rising this summer. Trump last week announced higher tariffs would come into effect on August 1 on imports from a range of countries, including Mexico, Japan, Canada and Brazil, as well as the European Union.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着沃爾瑪等零售商警告價格上漲，大多數經濟學家預計價格壓力將在今夏開始積聚，並持續到年底。他們表示，由於企業仍在銷售關税生效前積累的庫存，通脹對特朗普的廣泛進口關税反應緩慢。商業調查顯示，今夏通脹將上升。特朗普上週宣佈，針對包括墨西哥、日本、加拿大和巴西在內的多個國家的進口關税將於 8 月 1 日生效，此外還包括歐盟。</p>
</div><p>“The June CPI report is likely to show inflation beginning to strengthen again, albeit not enough to alarm Fed officials at this juncture,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “While inventory front-running has mitigated the need to raise goods prices, it will become increasingly difficult for businesses to absorb higher import duties as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“六月的 CPI 報告可能會顯示通脹開始再次增強，儘管在此時並不足以讓美聯儲官員感到擔憂，” 富國銀行高級經濟學家 Sarah House 表示。“雖然庫存前置減輕了提高商品價格的必要性，但隨着關税前的庫存減少，企業吸收更高進口關税的難度將越來越大。”</p>
</div><p>The CPI likely increased 0.3% last month after edging up 0.1% in May, a Reuters survey of economists showed. That would be the largest gain since January, with gasoline prices likely rebounding after four straight monthly declines. Economists expect mild food price increases, thanks to a moderation in the cost of eggs as an avian flu outbreak abates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據路透社對經濟學家的調查，CPI 上個月可能上漲 0.3%，而五月份僅上漲 0.1%。這將是自一月份以來的最大增幅，汽油價格在連續四個月下降後可能反彈。經濟學家預計食品價格將温和上漲，得益於禽流感疫情減緩導致雞蛋成本的適度下降。</p>
</div><p>In the 12 months through June, the CPI is forecast to advance 2.7% in June after rising by 2.4% in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在截至六月的 12 個月中，CPI 預計將上漲 2.7%，而五月份上漲 2.4%。</p>
</div><h3>WARMER CORE INFLATION</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>核心通脹回暖</h3>
</div><p>Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI is estimated to have risen 0.3% after edging up 0.1% in May. That reading also would be the biggest advance in the so-called core CPI since January, with the lift likely coming from a number of items that are exposed to tariffs, including furniture and recreation goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除波動較大的食品和能源成分後，CPI 預計上漲 0.3%，而五月份僅上漲 0.1%。這一數據也將是自一月份以來所謂核心 CPI 的最大增幅，預計主要來自一些受關税影響的商品，包括傢俱和娛樂產品。</p>
</div><p>“Anecdotal reports suggest that tariff-related price hikes began to finally grow in frequency in June, but I expect the bulk of the impact to come in July and August,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“有軼事報告表明，關税相關的價格上漲在六月開始頻繁出現，但我預計大部分影響將在七月和八月顯現，” 桑坦德美國資本市場首席經濟學家 Stephen Stanley 表示。</p>
</div><p>Solid price increases for goods, however, could be somewhat offset by moderate rises in services costs. Soft demand has limited price increases for services-related categories like air fares as well as hotel and motel rooms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，商品價格的穩固上漲可能會被服務成本的適度上漲所抵消。疲軟的需求限制了機票以及酒店和汽車旅館等服務相關類別的價格上漲。</p>
</div><p>In the 12 months through June, core CPI inflation is estimated to have increased 3.0% after rising 2.8% for three straight months. The Fed tracks different inflation measures for its 2% target. The central bank is expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the end of a policy meeting later this month. The minutes of the central bank’s June 17-18 meeting, which were published last week, showed only “a couple” of officials said they felt rates could fall as soon as the July 29-30 meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在截至六月的 12 個月中，核心 CPI 通脹預計上漲 3.0%，而此前連續三個月上漲 2.8%。美聯儲追蹤不同的通脹指標以實現其 2% 的目標。預計中央銀行將在本月晚些時候的政策會議結束時將基準隔夜利率維持在 4.25%-4.50% 區間。上週發佈的美聯儲 6 月 17-18 日會議紀要顯示，只有 “幾位” 官員表示他們認為利率可能在 7 月 29-30 日的會議上下降。</p>
</div><p>“And even if slowing services prices are not quite weak enough to keep overall core CPI subdued, only modest services inflation should be an encouraging sign that higher goods prices are not leading to broad-based inflationary pressures,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. “This should keep Fed officials comfortable lowering rates in September even if there is some stronger inflation data in the next few months.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“即使服務價格放緩並不足以使整體核心 CPI 保持低迷，只有適度的服務通脹也應是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，表明更高的商品價格並未導致廣泛的通脹壓力，” 花旗集團經濟學家 Veronica Clark 表示。“這應該使美聯儲官員在九月份降低利率時感到舒適，即使在接下來的幾個月中出現一些更強的通脹數據。”</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs is forecasting monthly core CPI inflation increases of between 0.3% and 0.4% over the next few months, reflecting tariff-related increases in the prices of consumer electronics, autos and apparel. The investment bank expects limited near-term impact on core services inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛預測未來幾個月核心 CPI 通脹將月增 0.3% 至 0.4%，反映出消費電子、汽車和服裝價格因關税而上漲。該投資銀行預計對核心服務通脹的短期影響有限。</p>
</div>

WRAPUP 1-US inflation expected to rise in June with tariff-driven price hikes

- 美國消費者價格指數預計在 6 月上漲 0.3%。  
- 核心 CPI 預計同比上漲 3.0%。  
- 關税引發的價格上漲可能在 6 月開始顯現。  

總結 1-預計美國 6 月通脹將因關税導致的價格上漲而上升