<p>英偉達（Nvidia，NVDA 0.37%）股票在 1 月 1 日至 4 月 5 日期間下跌了 30%，這被證明是一個相當大的假象。僅僅幾個月後，股價已達到歷史新高，許多分析師認為未來還有更大的上漲空間。鑑於該股的非凡動能，現在是仔細審視該股票的好時機。</p>
<p>這家人工智能（AI）芯片製造商能否兑現其股票中藴含的高期望，還是其大幅上漲是股東減持的機會？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0MjkvbnZkYS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0MjkvbnZkYS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>人工智能熱潮才剛剛開始</h2>
<p>在撰寫本文時，英偉達的市盈率約為 55，投資者不僅期待英偉達能實現更令人印象深刻的增長，還期待未來幾年能保持這種增長。幸運的是，最近的業績為這種增長前景帶來了良好的預兆。</p>
<p>在 5 月份，這家 AI 芯片公司報告的收入為 441 億美元，同比增長了驚人的 69%。按季度計算，季度收入同比增長了 12%。本季度的主要驅動力是其數據中心收入。該部門負責為人工智能模型提供芯片，同比增長了 73%，達到了 391 億美元。</p>
<p>展望第二季度，英偉達預計將實現更強勁的增長。公司預計收入為 450 億美元，意味着同比增長率為 50%。</p>
<p>尤其令人鼓舞的是，英偉達首席執行官黃仁勳對其產品需求環境的樂觀態度。考慮一下他在公司最近的財報發佈中所做的這些樂觀評論。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>全球對英偉達 AI 基礎設施的需求極其強勁。AI 推理令牌生成在短短一年內激增了十倍，隨着 AI 代理的普及，對 AI 計算的需求將加速增長。世界各國正在將 AI 視為與電力和互聯網一樣的基礎設施，而英偉達正處於這一深刻變革的中心。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>兩個不可否認的風險</h2>
<p>鑑於公司令人印象深刻的業務動能以及 AI 芯片市場似乎仍處於早期階段，可能會讓人急於得出結論，認為英偉達是一隻必買的股票。但關於這隻科技股有兩個常被忽視的擔憂。首先，噹噹前的 AI 芯片投資週期開始減弱時會發生什麼？此外，如果其他競爭對手緩慢但穩步地製造出可以替代英偉達 AI 芯片的芯片，會發生什麼？如果這些對英偉達業務動能的威脅中的任何一個變為現實，銷量和價格可能會同時受到壓力——這可能會導致股價下跌。</p>
<p>當然，多頭會爭辯説，由於 AI 仍處於早期階段，英偉達芯片的需求將遠高於一些投資者的預期。此外，他們還會認為，英偉達在競爭對手中的領先地位是如此顯著，以至於幾乎不可能被任何競爭對手趕上。這兩點可能都是真的。但我們生活在一個不確定的世界中。芯片製造商 <strong>英特爾</strong> 曾經也被認為是幾乎無敵的。然而，英偉達和其他芯片製造商在功率效率、圖形和人工智能方面超越了英特爾，導致了英特爾的衰退。</p>
<p>雖然很難想象英偉達未來會遭遇類似的衝擊，但在承認風險時保持一定的謙遜可能是個好主意。</p>
<p>考慮到英偉達令人印象深刻的業務動能以及未來可能較弱的增長率和日益激烈的競爭所帶來的風險，我認為對投資者的結論是平衡的：今天的股價可能過高，不適合購買。然而，如果你已經持有該股票，該公司的出色執行力使得繼續持有是合理的。然而，股東應預期會經歷波動，並確保他們意識到相關風險。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達的股票在經歷了今年早些時候 30% 的下跌後，已達到歷史新高。分析師對該公司的增長持樂觀態度，尤其是在人工智能領域，預計第二季度的收入將達到 450 億美元，同比增長 50%。然而，潛在風險包括人工智能投資週期的減緩和競爭加劇。雖然目前股票可能過於昂貴，不適合購買，但建議現有股東持有，同時要考慮市場固有的風險和波動性</p>

<p>Nvidia (NVDA 0.37%) stock's 30% slide between Jan. 1 and April 05 has proven to be quite the head fake. Just a few months later, shares are sitting at all-time highs and many analysts think there's more upside ahead. Given the stock's extraordinary momentum, it's a good time to take a close look at the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達（Nvidia，NVDA 0.37%）股票在 1 月 1 日至 4 月 5 日期間下跌了 30%，這被證明是一個相當大的假象。僅僅幾個月後，股價已達到歷史新高，許多分析師認為未來還有更大的上漲空間。鑑於該股的非凡動能，現在是仔細審視該股票的好時機。</p>
</div><p>Can the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker live up to the high expectations baked into its stock, or is its big move higher an opportunity for shareholders to take some chips off the table?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家人工智能（AI）芯片製造商能否兑現其股票中藴含的高期望，還是其大幅上漲是股東減持的機會？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU0MjkvbnZkYS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825429%2Fnvda.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The AI boom is just getting started</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能熱潮才剛剛開始</h2>
</div><p>With a price-to-earnings ratio of about 55 at the time of this writing, investors expect not only more impressive growth from Nvidia but <em>sustained</em> growth for years to come. Fortunately, recent results bode well for this sort of growth profile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰寫本文時，英偉達的市盈率約為 55，投資者不僅期待英偉達能實現更令人印象深刻的增長，還期待未來幾年能保持這種增長。幸運的是，最近的業績為這種增長前景帶來了良好的預兆。</p>
</div><p>In May, the AI chip company reported revenue of $44.1 billion, up an incredible 69% year over year. Sequentially, quarterly revenue was up 12% year over year. The quarter's main driver was its data center revenue. The segment, which is responsible for providing chips for artificial intelligence models, rose 73% year over year to $39.1 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月份，這家 AI 芯片公司報告的收入為 441 億美元，同比增長了驚人的 69%。按季度計算，季度收入同比增長了 12%。本季度的主要驅動力是其數據中心收入。該部門負責為人工智能模型提供芯片，同比增長了 73%，達到了 391 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead to Q2, Nvidia expects more strong growth. The company guided for revenue of $45 billion, translating to a year-over-year growth rate of 50%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望第二季度，英偉達預計將實現更強勁的增長。公司預計收入為 450 億美元，意味着同比增長率為 50%。</p>
</div><p>What's especially encouraging is Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's optimism regarding the demand environment for its products. Consider these bullish remarks he made in the company's most recent earnings release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尤其令人鼓舞的是，英偉達首席執行官黃仁勳對其產品需求環境的樂觀態度。考慮一下他在公司最近的財報發佈中所做的這些樂觀評論。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Global demand for NVIDIA's AI infrastructure is incredibly strong. AI inference token generation has surged tenfold in just one year, and as AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI computing will accelerate. Countries around the world are recognizing AI as essential infrastructure -- just like electricity and the internet -- and NVIDIA stands at the center of this profound transformation.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>全球對英偉達 AI 基礎設施的需求極其強勁。AI 推理令牌生成在短短一年內激增了十倍，隨着 AI 代理的普及，對 AI 計算的需求將加速增長。世界各國正在將 AI 視為與電力和互聯網一樣的基礎設施，而英偉達正處於這一深刻變革的中心。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Two undeniable risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>兩個不可否認的風險</h2>
</div><p>Given the company's impressive business momentum and the fact that the market for AI chips appears to still be in its early stages, it may be tempting to quickly conclude that Nvidia is a must-buy stock. But there are two concerns about this tech stock that are often overlooked. First, what happens when the current investment cycle for AI chips begins to taper off? Additionally, what happens if other competitors slowly but surely build chips that can serve as alternatives to Nvidia's AI chips? If just one of these threats to Nvidia's business momentum materializes, volume and pricing could be pressured simultaneously -- and this could send shares lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於公司令人印象深刻的業務動能以及 AI 芯片市場似乎仍處於早期階段，可能會讓人急於得出結論，認為英偉達是一隻必買的股票。但關於這隻科技股有兩個常被忽視的擔憂。首先，噹噹前的 AI 芯片投資週期開始減弱時會發生什麼？此外，如果其他競爭對手緩慢但穩步地製造出可以替代英偉達 AI 芯片的芯片，會發生什麼？如果這些對英偉達業務動能的威脅中的任何一個變為現實，銷量和價格可能會同時受到壓力——這可能會導致股價下跌。</p>
</div><p>Of course, bulls would argue that since these are still early days for AI and that the demand for Nvidia's chips will be far higher for much longer than some investors think. Additionally, they'd argue that Nvidia's lead over its competitors is so significant that it's nearly impossible for any of them to catch up. Both of these things may be true. But we live in an uncertain world. Chipmaker <strong>Intel</strong>, too, was once considered virtually invincible. However, Nvidia and other chipmakers outmaneuvered Intel in terms of power efficiency, graphics, and artificial intelligence, leading to Intel's decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，多頭會爭辯説，由於 AI 仍處於早期階段，英偉達芯片的需求將遠高於一些投資者的預期。此外，他們還會認為，英偉達在競爭對手中的領先地位是如此顯著，以至於幾乎不可能被任何競爭對手趕上。這兩點可能都是真的。但我們生活在一個不確定的世界中。芯片製造商 <strong>英特爾</strong> 曾經也被認為是幾乎無敵的。然而，英偉達和其他芯片製造商在功率效率、圖形和人工智能方面超越了英特爾，導致了英特爾的衰退。</p>
</div><p>While it's hard to imagine how Nvidia could be similarly disrupted in the future, embracing some humility when it comes to acknowledging risks is likely a good idea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然很難想象英偉達未來會遭遇類似的衝擊，但在承認風險時保持一定的謙遜可能是個好主意。</p>
</div><p>Considering Nvidia's impressive business momentum alongside the risks associated with a potentially weaker growth rate in the future and rising competition, I believe there's a balanced conclusion when it comes to the takeaway for investors: Shares may be too pricey to buy today. However, the company's incredible execution makes a good case for holding onto the stock if you already own it. However, shareholders should expect a bumpy ride and ensure they are aware of the associated risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到英偉達令人印象深刻的業務動能以及未來可能較弱的增長率和日益激烈的競爭所帶來的風險，我認為對投資者的結論是平衡的：今天的股價可能過高，不適合購買。然而，如果你已經持有該股票，該公司的出色執行力使得繼續持有是合理的。然而，股東應預期會經歷波動，並確保他們意識到相關風險。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock at All-Time Highs: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- Nvidia 股票在 2025 年初經歷了 30% 的下滑，但現已創下歷史新高。  
- 公司預計 Q2 收入將達 450 億美元，同比增長 50%。  
- 投資者需關注 AI 芯片市場的競爭風險及未來增長放緩的可能性。

英偉達股票創歷史新高：是該買入、賣出還是持有？