<p>對於 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.06%) 的投資者來説，這一年並不好。截至 7 月 14 日，這家消費科技巨頭的股價下跌了 17%。<strong>特斯拉</strong> 是 “七大巨頭” 中表現更差的唯一公司。</p>
<p>蘋果股票今年的失望表現並沒有削弱其在過去十年中上漲 564% 的事實。這一增幅遠超 <strong>標準普爾</strong> 指數。但其股價目前比去年 12 月的峯值低 19%。</p>
<p>現在是投資者買入的好時機嗎？答案可能會讓你感到驚訝。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUwMDkvcmVkLWRvd24tYXJyb3ctb24tdG9wLW9mLTEwMC1kb2xsYXItYmlsbHMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUwMDkvcmVkLWRvd24tYXJyb3ctb24tdG9wLW9mLTEwMC1kb2xsYXItYmlsbHMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>蘋果是世界上最優秀的企業之一</h2>
<p>我相信，長期投資成功的關鍵在於擁有正確的公司。我的意思是，擁有具有持久競爭優勢的高質量企業。此外，從財務實力的角度出發也是必要的。</p>
<p>這就是蘋果的突出之處。這個公司之所以如此優秀的一個原因是其品牌影響力。全球消費者都喜歡蘋果精美設計的硬件和易於使用的軟件。這些產品處於高端市場，確實與人們產生了共鳴。</p>
<p>蘋果所建立的生態系統是另一個使其成為卓越企業的原因。其產品僅與公司的軟件和服務兼容，這創造了一個封閉的環境，為消費者提供了卓越的體驗。這也使得消費者很難轉向競爭對手的產品。</p>
<p>在財務實力方面，蘋果幾乎位於頂尖位置。截至 3 月 29 日，其資產負債表上有 350 億美元的淨現金。在最新的財季中，公司的淨收入達到了 250 億美元。蘋果陷入財務困境的風險幾乎不存在。</p>
<h2>難以忽視的風險</h2>
<p>無論一家公司多麼出色，所有公司在某個時刻都必須克服挑戰。蘋果也不例外。目前投資者需要關注三個緊迫的問題。</p>
<p>增長正在放緩。2023 財年的收入下降了 2.8%，降至 3830 億美元，2024 財年僅增長了 2%。在接下來的三年中，華爾街共識分析師預計銷售將以 5.3% 的年複合增長率增長。這一前景並沒有吸引到以增長為導向的投資者。</p>
<p>在 2025 年第二季度，iPhone 的總收入佔比為 49%，這一產品已經進入生命週期的第 18 年。雖然這可能是有史以來最成功的產品，但如今的成熟度並沒有真正激勵消費者不斷購買最新的升級版本。公平地説，蘋果的其他產品也非常受歡迎，但在如此高的銷售基數上推動有意義的增長是困難的。</p>
<p>人們對蘋果在人工智能（AI）領域的進入速度表示擔憂。新改進的 AI 驅動的 Siri 預計要到 2026 年才能推出。</p>
<p>而且觀察者似乎總是聽到來自大型科技同行的新 AI 發展。儘管如此，蘋果對用户體驗和隱私的關注始終是亮點。</p>
<p>投資者不能忘記動態關税形勢。對於其大部分生產，蘋果依賴中國，而中國在特朗普總統制定貿易政策時始終處於關注之中。蘋果的龐大規模和知名度也使其成為特朗普的攻擊目標，他批評該公司將更多生產轉移到印度。</p>
<p>最新的挑戰確實值得關注。然而，這仍然是一家出色的公司，應該能夠應對未來的各種挑戰。</p>
<p>但即使股票距離歷史高點下跌了 19%，其當前的市盈率（P/E）為 32.5，仍然顯得昂貴。實際上，這一數字遠高於過去 10 年的平均水平。在市盈率接近 25 之前，投資者不應購買蘋果股票。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果的股票從峯值下跌了 19%，引發了是否該趁機買入的疑問。儘管在過去十年中增長了 564%，但近期的表現令人失望，收入下降，增長放緩。蘋果強大的品牌和財務狀況，包括 350 億美元的淨現金，是積極因素。然而，iPhone 銷量放緩、人工智能發展延遲以及關税問題等挑戰依然存在。目前的市盈率為 32.5，被認為較高，這表明投資者應等待更有利的估值再考慮購買股票</p>

<p>It hasn't been a good year for investors in <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.06%). As of July 14, shares of the consumer tech powerhouse are down 17%. <strong>Tesla</strong> is the only other &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; company to have a worse performance in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -0.06%) 的投資者來説，這一年並不好。截至 7 月 14 日，這家消費科技巨頭的股價下跌了 17%。<strong>特斯拉</strong> 是 “七大巨頭” 中表現更差的唯一公司。</p>
</div><p>Apple stock's disappointing showing this year doesn't take away from the fact that it's up 564% in the past decade. That gain is well ahead of the <strong>S&amp;P</strong> index. But shares are trading 19% below their peak from December last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果股票今年的失望表現並沒有削弱其在過去十年中上漲 564% 的事實。這一增幅遠超 <strong>標準普爾</strong> 指數。但其股價目前比去年 12 月的峯值低 19%。</p>
</div><p>Is now the time for investors to buy the dip? The answer might surprise you.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在是投資者買入的好時機嗎？答案可能會讓你感到驚訝。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUwMDkvcmVkLWRvd24tYXJyb3ctb24tdG9wLW9mLTEwMC1kb2xsYXItYmlsbHMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825009%2Fred-down-arrow-on-top-of-100-dollar-bills.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple is one of the world's best businesses</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果是世界上最優秀的企業之一</h2>
</div><p>I believe long-term investing success comes down to owning the right companies. And by this, I mean high-quality businesses that have durable competitive strengths. What's more, operating from a position of financial prowess is also a necessity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信，長期投資成功的關鍵在於擁有正確的公司。我的意思是，擁有具有持久競爭優勢的高質量企業。此外，從財務實力的角度出發也是必要的。</p>
</div><p>Here's where Apple stands out. One reason this is such a great company is its brand presence. Consumers across the globe have come to love Apple's beautifully designed hardware and easy-to-use software. These are at the premium end of the spectrum, and they really resonate with people.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是蘋果的突出之處。這個公司之所以如此優秀的一個原因是其品牌影響力。全球消費者都喜歡蘋果精美設計的硬件和易於使用的軟件。這些產品處於高端市場，確實與人們產生了共鳴。</p>
</div><p>The ecosystem Apple has built is another reason this is a superb business. Its products only work with the company's own software and services, which creates a walled garden that makes for an exceptional experience for consumers. This also makes it difficult to switch to the offerings of competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果所建立的生態系統是另一個使其成為卓越企業的原因。其產品僅與公司的軟件和服務兼容，這創造了一個封閉的環境，為消費者提供了卓越的體驗。這也使得消費者很難轉向競爭對手的產品。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to financial strength, Apple is near the top. As of March 29, it carried $35 billion in net cash on its balance sheet. And during the latest fiscal quarter, the business generated $25 billion in net income. The risk that Apple gets into financial trouble is practically nonexistent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在財務實力方面，蘋果幾乎位於頂尖位置。截至 3 月 29 日，其資產負債表上有 350 億美元的淨現金。在最新的財季中，公司的淨收入達到了 250 億美元。蘋果陷入財務困境的風險幾乎不存在。</p>
</div><h2>Risks that are too hard to ignore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>難以忽視的風險</h2>
</div><p>It doesn't matter how wonderful a company is; all of them must overcome challenges at some point. Apple is no different. There are three pressing issues investors need to be mindful of right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論一家公司多麼出色，所有公司在某個時刻都必須克服挑戰。蘋果也不例外。目前投資者需要關注三個緊迫的問題。</p>
</div><p>Growth is slowing. Revenue declined 2.8% in fiscal 2023 to $383 billion, before rising by just 2% in fiscal 2024. Over the following three fiscal years, Wall Street consensus analyst estimates call for sales to increase at a compound annual rate of 5.3%. This outlook isn't exactly bringing in growth-minded investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增長正在放緩。2023 財年的收入下降了 2.8%，降至 3830 億美元，2024 財年僅增長了 2%。在接下來的三年中，華爾街共識分析師預計銷售將以 5.3% 的年複合增長率增長。這一前景並沒有吸引到以增長為導向的投資者。</p>
</div><p>During the second quarter of 2025, 49% of total revenue came from the iPhone, a product that's 18 years into its life cycle. While this might be the most successful product of all time, its maturity these days doesn't really incentivize consumers to constantly buy the newest upgrades. To be fair, Apple's other products are incredibly popular, but it's hard to drive meaningful growth on a very high sales base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年第二季度，iPhone 的總收入佔比為 49%，這一產品已經進入生命週期的第 18 年。雖然這可能是有史以來最成功的產品，但如今的成熟度並沒有真正激勵消費者不斷購買最新的升級版本。公平地説，蘋果的其他產品也非常受歡迎，但在如此高的銷售基數上推動有意義的增長是困難的。</p>
</div><p>There have been concerns that Apple's entrance into artificial intelligence (AI) has been slow. The new and improved AI-powered Siri isn't expected to be launched until 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人們對蘋果在人工智能（AI）領域的進入速度表示擔憂。新改進的 AI 驅動的 Siri 預計要到 2026 年才能推出。</p>
</div><p>And it seems that observers are constantly hearing about new AI developments from big tech peers. For what it's worth, though, Apple's focus on the user experience and privacy are always bright spots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且觀察者似乎總是聽到來自大型科技同行的新 AI 發展。儘管如此，蘋果對用户體驗和隱私的關注始終是亮點。</p>
</div><p>Investors can't forget about the dynamic tariff situation. For a lot of its production, the company relies on China, a country that's always on top of President Donald Trump's mind when making decisions about trade policy. It also doesn't help that Apple's sheer size and visibility make it a punching bag for Trump, who criticized the company for moving more production to India.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者不能忘記動態關税形勢。對於其大部分生產，蘋果依賴中國，而中國在特朗普總統制定貿易政策時始終處於關注之中。蘋果的龐大規模和知名度也使其成為特朗普的攻擊目標，他批評該公司將更多生產轉移到印度。</p>
</div><p>The latest challenges are certainly worth paying attention to. However, this is still a fantastic company that should be able to navigate whatever comes its way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的挑戰確實值得關注。然而，這仍然是一家出色的公司，應該能夠應對未來的各種挑戰。</p>
</div><p>But even though the stock is 19% off its record, its current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 32.5 is still expensive. In fact, it's well above the trailing-10-year average. Until the P/E gets closer to 25, investors shouldn't buy Apple shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使股票距離歷史高點下跌了 19%，其當前的市盈率（P/E）為 32.5，仍然顯得昂貴。實際上，這一數字遠高於過去 10 年的平均水平。在市盈率接近 25 之前，投資者不應購買蘋果股票。</p>
</div>

Down 19%, Should You Buy the Dip on Apple Stock? The Answer Might Surprise You.

- 蘋果公司股價今年下跌 17%，但過去十年上漲 564%。  
- 目前面臨增長放緩、iPhone 依賴及 AI 進展緩慢等挑戰。  
- 儘管股價回落，當前市盈率仍高，建議投資者觀望。  

蘋果股票已經下跌了 19%，現在是否應該趁低買入？答案可能會讓你感到意外