<p>沃倫·巴菲特作為投資者的巨大成功並不是通過試圖把握市場時機，也不是通過預測哪些股票在短期內會上漲或下跌而獲得的。他在多次場合指出，這些都是不可能的任務。相反，巴菲特和他的團隊在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A 0.29%)(BRK.B 0.10%) 所做的主要工作是試圖判斷某個企業在特定時刻的價值是否高於或低於其市場價格。</p>
<p>這一策略帶來了驚人的成果。自 1965 年巴菲特接管當時處於困境的紡織企業以來，伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票以約 20% 的複合年增長率增長。為了更好地理解這一點，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -0.01%) 在此期間的複合年回報率僅為 10.4%。</p>
<p>儘管這聽起來令人印象深刻，但當複利有數十年的時間來發揮其魔力時，這種差異變得難以想象。從 1965 年到 2024 年，投資於標準普爾 500 指數（再投資股息）將使其價值增長約 390 倍。而同樣的投資在伯克希爾的價值則增長了超過 55,000 倍。</p>
<p>簡而言之，購買那些基本上比市場認為的更有價值的股票是有效的。但最近，巴菲特得出結論，伯克希爾投資組合中的許多股票可能並不值市場所支付的價格。此外，他發現潛在的新股票投資機會非常有限。因此，伯克希爾哈撒韋已經連續 10 個季度成為股票的淨賣方。在此期間，巴菲特和他的團隊賣出的股票比買入的多出 1740 億美元。</p>
<p>最近，伯克希爾哈撒韋削減的兩個最大持倉是 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) 和 <strong>美國銀行</strong>(BAC 0.64%)。該集團分別將其在這兩家公司的股份削減了 67% 和 39%。利用這些銷售及其他交易的部分收益，巴菲特正在投資一種當前收益率約為 4.3% 的高收益投資。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ5ODYvYnVmZmV0dDE3LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ5ODYvYnVmZmV0dDE3LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>削減一些最大的持倉</h2>
<p>在某個時刻，蘋果股票佔伯克希爾股票投資組合價值的一半以上。巴菲特在 2016 年首次購買了這家 iPhone 製造商的股票，當時其股價約為 25 美元（經過拆股調整）。在接下來的幾年裏，他在該股票上建立了鉅額持倉，到 2018 年底時投入了約 360 億美元。</p>
<p>當巴菲特首次投資蘋果時，其市盈率約為 10。這對於當時正經歷淨收入下滑的公司來説是一個令人難以置信的價值。巴菲特看到了 iPhone 和蘋果生態系統的價值，注意到人們對智能手機的依賴程度。他預計，得益於蘋果的品牌實力、在智能手機市場的領先地位以及強勁的自由現金流，業務將會好轉。果然，在接下來的八年裏，股票飆升。</p>
<p>但到 2023 年底，其市盈率已攀升至超過 30 倍，這對於一家每年以個位數百分比增長每股收益的公司來説是一個極高的倍數。這足以説服巴菲特開始兑現部分利潤。從 2023 年 10 月到 2024 年 9 月，他賣出了伯克希爾在這家科技巨頭的超過三分之二的股份。</p>
<p>蘋果仍然是伯克希爾投資組合中最大的持倉，佔其價值的近 22%。但考慮到其前瞻性市盈率為 29，巴菲特不太可能在近期內再次增加該持倉，除非出現重大進展。</p>
<p>美國銀行是伯克希爾去年夏天的第二大持倉。但在過去三個季度中，伯克希爾已將其在該公司的股份削減了 39%。根據伯克希爾最近向證券交易委員會提交的 13F 文件，美國銀行仍是伯克希爾的第三大持倉。但巴菲特可能在第二季度繼續出售該股票。</p>
<p>伯克希爾在美國銀行的最初持倉來自於 2011 年巴菲特通過一項特殊交易獲得的優先股所附帶的股票認購權。當時美國銀行正面臨困境。這些優先股支付了不錯的股息，但在 2017 年，持有普通股變得更有利可圖。因此，巴菲特行使了他的認購權，將優先股轉換為普通股，然後在 2020 年之前逐步增加該持倉。</p>
<p>再次，估值似乎是巴菲特決定兑現部分美國銀行投資利潤的最大原因。該股票價格的上漲是由於市場對利率將下降的預期。美國銀行在其資產負債表上持有長期債務，在美聯儲加息時面臨困難，但當利率下降時，這將使其相對於同行處於良好位置。但隨着過去幾年股票價格的上漲，其有形賬面價值的市價比率也隨之上升。過去一年中，該比率大部分時間超過 1.6。目前交易接近 1.7，遠高於其 10 年平均值 1.49。</p>
<h2>每年為伯克希爾帶來 135 億美元的投資</h2>
<p>這些鉅額股票銷售為伯克希爾哈撒韋的資金庫注入了大量現金。如前所述，過去兩年半中，巴菲特的股票銷售超過了購買 1740 億美元。雖然其中一大部分現金用於支付伯克希爾去年的鉅額税單，但幾乎所有剩餘的資金都用於一項單一的投資持倉。</p>
<p>截至第一季度末，伯克希爾在其資產負債表上持有 3141 億美元的美國國債。這些債券的平均收益率約為 4.3%，公司預計到 2025 年僅從政府債券持有的利息中就能收穫 135 億美元。如果巴菲特在全年內購買更多國債，這一數字可能會更高。</p>
<p>僅僅通過支持美國政府而獲得 135 億美元的收益，這筆交易並不差。伯克希爾在 2024 年的總運營收入為 475 億美元。但巴菲特明確表示，他更願意將伯克希爾不斷增長的現金儲備（國債被視為現金等價物）投資於股票，而不是債券。</p>
<p>巴菲特在 2024 年致股東的信中寫道：“伯克希爾的股東可以放心，我們將永遠將其大部分資金投入股票。”</p>
<p>巴菲特目前面臨的挑戰是，市場上大多數股票從估值角度來看都很昂貴。對於他能夠購買足夠數量以真正影響像伯克希爾哈撒韋這樣巨頭的股票尤其如此。伯克希爾可投入的資金接近 3500 億美元，但可投資的股票範圍僅限於那些市值較大、能夠吸納數十億美元資本的公司。不幸的是，如今大盤股的交易估值要高得多。以此趨勢為例，標準普爾 500 指數的前瞻市盈率已攀升至 22 以上，達到了自互聯網泡沫以來的最高水平，僅在 2020 年和 2021 年的幾個季度（在 2022 年熊市之前）有所例外。</p>
<p>如果巴菲特是一位只有幾百萬美元投資的小型投資者，他肯定能在市場上找到很好的機會。小型和中型股指數的預期前瞻市盈率約為 16 倍。即使是等權重的標準普爾 500 指數，其市盈率也僅為 17.6 倍，反映出該指數中較小成分股的交易價值比其最大成分股更具吸引力。</p>
<p>花時間研究市場上那些不那麼知名的個別公司，投資者可以找到一些價值超過其當前市場價值的優秀公司。如果你持續購買這些股票，長期來看可以獲得優異的回報。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

蘋果

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>沃倫·巴菲特拋售蘋果和美國銀行，轉而投資這一乏味的投資，收益率為 4.3%</p>

<p>Warren Buffett's tremendous success as an investor didn't come from trying to time the market, nor from predicting which stocks would go up or down in the near term. Those are impossible tasks, he has noted on multiple occasions. Instead, the primary thing that Buffett and his team at <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.29%)(BRK.B 0.10%) do is try to determine whether a business, at that particular moment, is worth more or less than its market price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃倫·巴菲特作為投資者的巨大成功並不是通過試圖把握市場時機，也不是通過預測哪些股票在短期內會上漲或下跌而獲得的。他在多次場合指出，這些都是不可能的任務。相反，巴菲特和他的團隊在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.A 0.29%)(BRK.B 0.10%) 所做的主要工作是試圖判斷某個企業在特定時刻的價值是否高於或低於其市場價格。</p>
</div><p>That strategy has led to some phenomenal results. Berkshire Hathaway stock has grown at a compound annual rate of about 20% since 1965, when Buffett took control of what was then a failing textile business. To put that in perspective, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.01%) has produced compound annual returns of just 10.4% over that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一策略帶來了驚人的成果。自 1965 年巴菲特接管當時處於困境的紡織企業以來，伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票以約 20% 的複合年增長率增長。為了更好地理解這一點，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -0.01%) 在此期間的複合年回報率僅為 10.4%。</p>
</div><p>As impressive as that may sound, it can be hard to grasp just how vast that difference becomes when compounding has decades to work its magic. From 1965 through 2024, an investment in the S&amp;P 500 (with dividends reinvested) would have multiplied in value by about 390 times. The same investment in Berkshire would have risen by more than 55,000 times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這聽起來令人印象深刻，但當複利有數十年的時間來發揮其魔力時，這種差異變得難以想象。從 1965 年到 2024 年，投資於標準普爾 500 指數（再投資股息）將使其價值增長約 390 倍。而同樣的投資在伯克希爾的價值則增長了超過 55,000 倍。</p>
</div><p>In short, buying stocks that are fundamentally worth more than the market thinks they are works. But in recent times, Buffett has concluded that many of the equities in Berkshire's portfolio might not be worth as much as the market is paying for them. Further, he has found the pickings quite slim in terms of potential new equity holdings to buy. As a result, Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of stocks for 10 consecutive quarters. In that period, Buffett and his team have sold $174 billion more in stocks than they bought.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡而言之，購買那些基本上比市場認為的更有價值的股票是有效的。但最近，巴菲特得出結論，伯克希爾投資組合中的許多股票可能並不值市場所支付的價格。此外，他發現潛在的新股票投資機會非常有限。因此，伯克希爾哈撒韋已經連續 10 個季度成為股票的淨賣方。在此期間，巴菲特和他的團隊賣出的股票比買入的多出 1740 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Two of the biggest positions recently getting trimmed at Berkshire Hathaway were <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) and <strong>Bank of America</strong>(BAC 0.64%). The conglomerate cut its stakes in them by 67% and 39%, respectively. With some of the proceeds from those sales and others, Buffett has been piling into a high-yield investment that's paying around 4.3% as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，伯克希爾哈撒韋削減的兩個最大持倉是 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) 和 <strong>美國銀行</strong>(BAC 0.64%)。該集團分別將其在這兩家公司的股份削減了 67% 和 39%。利用這些銷售及其他交易的部分收益，巴菲特正在投資一種當前收益率約為 4.3% 的高收益投資。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ5ODYvYnVmZmV0dDE3LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824986%2Fbuffett17-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Cutting some of his biggest holdings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>削減一些最大的持倉</h2>
</div><p>At one point, Apple stock accounted for more than half the value of Berkshire's equity portfolio. Buffett first purchased shares of the iPhone maker in 2016 when it traded for around $25 on a split-adjusted basis. Over the next few years, he built a massive stake in the stock, pouring an estimated $36 billion into it by late 2018.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某個時刻，蘋果股票佔伯克希爾股票投資組合價值的一半以上。巴菲特在 2016 年首次購買了這家 iPhone 製造商的股票，當時其股價約為 25 美元（經過拆股調整）。在接下來的幾年裏，他在該股票上建立了鉅額持倉，到 2018 年底時投入了約 360 億美元。</p>
</div><p>When Buffett made his initial investment in Apple, it was trading at a P/E multiple of around 10. That was an incredible value for the stock, even as the company was experiencing a downturn in net income. Buffett saw the value of the iPhone and the Apple ecosystem, noticing how attached people were to their smartphones. He expected the business to turn around, thanks to Apple's brand strength, its leading position in smartphones, and its strong free cash flow. Sure enough, the stock soared over the next eight years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當巴菲特首次投資蘋果時，其市盈率約為 10。這對於當時正經歷淨收入下滑的公司來説是一個令人難以置信的價值。巴菲特看到了 iPhone 和蘋果生態系統的價值，注意到人們對智能手機的依賴程度。他預計，得益於蘋果的品牌實力、在智能手機市場的領先地位以及強勁的自由現金流，業務將會好轉。果然，在接下來的八年裏，股票飆升。</p>
</div><p>But by late 2023, it had climbed to above 30 times earnings, which is an extremely high multiple for a company growing its earnings per share at a single-digit percentage annual rate. That was enough to convince Buffett to start taking some cash off the table. From October 2023 through September 2024, he sold more than two-thirds of Berkshire's stake in the tech giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但到 2023 年底，其市盈率已攀升至超過 30 倍，這對於一家每年以個位數百分比增長每股收益的公司來説是一個極高的倍數。這足以説服巴菲特開始兑現部分利潤。從 2023 年 10 月到 2024 年 9 月，他賣出了伯克希爾在這家科技巨頭的超過三分之二的股份。</p>
</div><p>Apple remains the largest holding in Berkshire's portfolio, accounting for nearly 22% of its value. But given its forward P/E of 29, it's unlikely that Buffett plans to start adding to the position again in the near future, absent any significant developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果仍然是伯克希爾投資組合中最大的持倉，佔其價值的近 22%。但考慮到其前瞻性市盈率為 29，巴菲特不太可能在近期內再次增加該持倉，除非出現重大進展。</p>
</div><p>Bank of America was Berkshire's second-largest holding as of last summer. But over the last three quarters, Berkshire has trimmed its stake in the company by 39%. Bank of America remains Berkshire's third-largest holding based on the company's most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. But Buffett may have continued selling the stock in the second quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國銀行是伯克希爾去年夏天的第二大持倉。但在過去三個季度中，伯克希爾已將其在該公司的股份削減了 39%。根據伯克希爾最近向證券交易委員會提交的 13F 文件，美國銀行仍是伯克希爾的第三大持倉。但巴菲特可能在第二季度繼續出售該股票。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's original stake in Bank of America came from stock warrants received in connection with preferred shares Buffett picked up in 2011 through a special deal he made while Bank of America was struggling. Those preferred shares paid nice dividends, but in 2017, it became more lucrative to own the common stock instead. So, Buffett exercised his warrants and converted the preferred shares into common stock, then proceeded to gradually add to the position through 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾在美國銀行的最初持倉來自於 2011 年巴菲特通過一項特殊交易獲得的優先股所附帶的股票認購權。當時美國銀行正面臨困境。這些優先股支付了不錯的股息，但在 2017 年，持有普通股變得更有利可圖。因此，巴菲特行使了他的認購權，將優先股轉換為普通股，然後在 2020 年之前逐步增加該持倉。</p>
</div><p>Again, valuation seems to be the biggest reason for Buffett's decision to book some profits on his Bank of America investment. The stock's run-up in price has been fueled by expectations that interest rates will decline. Bank of America has longer-dated debt on its balance sheet that struggled when the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates, but that will leave it well positioned relative to its peers when interest rates decline. But as the stock price climbed over the past couple of years, its price to tangible book value did too. That ratio has exceeded 1.6 for much of the past year. It currently trades closer to 1.7, well above its 10-year average of 1.49.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再次，估值似乎是巴菲特決定兑現部分美國銀行投資利潤的最大原因。該股票價格的上漲是由於市場對利率將下降的預期。美國銀行在其資產負債表上持有長期債務，在美聯儲加息時面臨困難，但當利率下降時，這將使其相對於同行處於良好位置。但隨着過去幾年股票價格的上漲，其有形賬面價值的市價比率也隨之上升。過去一年中，該比率大部分時間超過 1.6。目前交易接近 1.7，遠高於其 10 年平均值 1.49。</p>
</div><h2>The investment paying Berkshire $13.5 billion per year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>每年為伯克希爾帶來 135 億美元的投資</h2>
</div><p>Those massive stock sales put a lot of cash in Berkshire Hathaway's coffers. As mentioned, Buffett's stock sales outpaced his purchases by $174 billion over the past two and a half years. While a sizeable chunk of that cash went toward paying Berkshire's massive tax bill from last year, almost all of the rest went toward a single investment holding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些鉅額股票銷售為伯克希爾哈撒韋的資金庫注入了大量現金。如前所述，過去兩年半中，巴菲特的股票銷售超過了購買 1740 億美元。雖然其中一大部分現金用於支付伯克希爾去年的鉅額税單，但幾乎所有剩餘的資金都用於一項單一的投資持倉。</p>
</div><p>As of the end of the first quarter, Berkshire held $314.1 billion in U.S. Treasury bills on its balance sheet. With those bonds delivering an average yield of around 4.3%, the company is in line to collect $13.5 billion in 2025 just from interest on its government bond holdings. That number could climb higher if Buffett buys more T-bills throughout the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至第一季度末，伯克希爾在其資產負債表上持有 3141 億美元的美國國債。這些債券的平均收益率約為 4.3%，公司預計到 2025 年僅從政府債券持有的利息中就能收穫 135 億美元。如果巴菲特在全年內購買更多國債，這一數字可能會更高。</p>
</div><p>A $13.5 billion payout for doing nothing but supporting the U.S. government isn't a bad deal. Berkshire's total income from operations in 2024 was $47.5 billion. But Buffett has made it clear that he would rather invest Berkshire's growing pile of cash (Treasury bills are considered a cash equivalent) in equities instead of bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>僅僅通過支持美國政府而獲得 135 億美元的收益，這筆交易並不差。伯克希爾在 2024 年的總運營收入為 475 億美元。但巴菲特明確表示，他更願意將伯克希爾不斷增長的現金儲備（國債被視為現金等價物）投資於股票，而不是債券。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Berkshire shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities,&#34; Buffett wrote in his 2024 letter to shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在 2024 年致股東的信中寫道：“伯克希爾的股東可以放心，我們將永遠將其大部分資金投入股票。”</p>
</div><p>The challenge Buffett currently faces is that most stocks on the market are expensive from a valuation standpoint. That's especially true for stocks that he could buy in quantities large enough that they could actually move the needle for a giant like Berkshire Hathaway. With nearly $350 billion to deploy, Berkshire's universe of investable stocks is limited to those with large market caps that can absorb billions of dollars of capital. Unfortunately, large-cap stocks trade at much higher valuations these days. Illustrating that trend, the S&amp;P 500's forward P/E ratio has climbed above 22 to one of its highest levels since the dot-com bubble, save for a few quarters in 2020 and 2021 (ahead of the 2022 bear market).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特目前面臨的挑戰是，市場上大多數股票從估值角度來看都很昂貴。對於他能夠購買足夠數量以真正影響像伯克希爾哈撒韋這樣巨頭的股票尤其如此。伯克希爾可投入的資金接近 3500 億美元，但可投資的股票範圍僅限於那些市值較大、能夠吸納數十億美元資本的公司。不幸的是，如今大盤股的交易估值要高得多。以此趨勢為例，標準普爾 500 指數的前瞻市盈率已攀升至 22 以上，達到了自互聯網泡沫以來的最高水平，僅在 2020 年和 2021 年的幾個季度（在 2022 年熊市之前）有所例外。</p>
</div><p>If Buffett were a smaller investor with just a few million dollars to invest, he'd surely be able to find great opportunities in the market. The small- and mid-cap indices trade for around 16 times expected forward earnings. Even the equal-weight S&amp;P 500 index trades at just 17.6 times earnings, reflecting the fact that smaller members of the index are trading at more attractive values than its largest components.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果巴菲特是一位只有幾百萬美元投資的小型投資者，他肯定能在市場上找到很好的機會。小型和中型股指數的預期前瞻市盈率約為 16 倍。即使是等權重的標準普爾 500 指數，其市盈率也僅為 17.6 倍，反映出該指數中較小成分股的交易價值比其最大成分股更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Investors who take the time to research individual companies outside of the largest and most well-known names in the market can find some great companies worth more than their current market values. And if you consistently buy those stocks, you can generate excellent returns over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花時間研究市場上那些不那麼知名的個別公司，投資者可以找到一些價值超過其當前市場價值的優秀公司。如果你持續購買這些股票，長期來看可以獲得優異的回報。</p>
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Warren Buffett Sold Apple and Bank of America in Favor of This Boring Investment Offering a 4.3% Yield

- 巴菲特的成功源於評估企業價值，而非市場時機。  
- 伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票年均增長約 20%，遠超標普 500 的 10.4%。  
- 近期，伯克希爾已連續 10 個季度淨賣出股票，出售額達 1740 億美元。

沃倫·巴菲特出售了蘋果和美國銀行的股票，轉而選擇了一個提供 4.3% 收益率的乏味投資