<p>儘管整體市場表現良好，截至週四市場收盤，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 上漲了 7%，但電動車製造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.13%) 的股價卻走向了相反的方向，下降了約 21%。</p>
<p>該公司在最近幾個季度面臨了許多困難，圍繞其業務和首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克的負面報道層出不窮，這無疑對股價造成了壓力。如果情況不盡快改善，特斯拉可能會面臨近年來最糟糕的表現。與 2022 年市場動盪不同，這次是在_有利_的市場條件下表現不佳。</p>
<p>這是否意味着特斯拉將開始一個令人擔憂的趨勢，還是現在是投資這隻掙扎中的汽車股票的好時機？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MTcvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1wZXJzb24tc2l0dGluZy1uZXh0LXRvLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MTcvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1wZXJzb24tc2l0dGluZy1uZXh0LXRvLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉正面臨異常糟糕的一年</h2>
<p>特斯拉通常是一個不錯的投資。雖然它並不總是優於市場，但在過去十年中，這隻汽車股票的回報率約為 1700%，而同期標準普爾 500 指數的漲幅約為 200%。在這段時間內，特斯拉的好年份遠遠超過了壞年份。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>標準普爾 500 指數</th>
<th>特斯拉股票</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.3%</td>
<td>62.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.2%</td>
<td>101.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>(19.4%)</td>
<td>(65%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.9%</td>
<td>49.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>743.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.9%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>(6.2%)</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.4%</td>
<td>45.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>(11%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>(0.7%)</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>來源：YCharts。表格由作者製作。</p>
<p>然而，值得注意的是，在這段時間內，只有一次股價在單一年份內下跌超過 20%——那是在 2022 年。由於利率上升和通貨膨脹成為重大問題，這導致特斯拉股票表現慘淡。</p>
<p>今年的損失可能沒有那麼嚴重，但如果沒有顯著的恢復，股價可能會在 10 年內第二次出現超過 20% 的下跌。</p>
<h2>特斯拉今年能否扭轉局面？</h2>
<p>由於首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克領導唐納德·特朗普的政府效率部門倡議以及政府支出的削減，今年特斯拉麪臨了很多負面報道。雖然馬斯克已經退出了這一角色，許多投資者認為這對特斯拉的業務是一個積極的發展，但這並不足以成為扭轉股價下跌的催化劑。</p>
<p>公司的季度利潤是多年來最低的，不僅由於經濟環境嚴峻導致可支配支出受到壓力，競爭的加劇也在擠壓特斯拉的毛利率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62af5a492f629b37b95d52e39ba0adec.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62af5a492f629b37b95d52e39ba0adec.png"/></p>
<p>特斯拉淨收入（季度）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>為了讓特斯拉的股票扭轉局面，企業需要在盈利能力上有所改善，這可能並不容易。該股票的市盈率約為 180 倍，市值仍然相當高，約為 1 萬億美元。</p>
<h2>現在應該投資特斯拉嗎？</h2>
<p>特斯拉歷來是一個不錯的成長投資，但在目前如此高的市值下，產生強勁收益將不容易。在如此高的價格下，預期也很高，而特斯拉顯然沒有產生足夠的結果來證明其高昂的溢價。今年前三個月，該公司的汽車收入同比下降了 20%。</p>
<p>儘管它是領先的電動車公司，但其高估值意味着許多未來的增長已經被市場定價。特斯拉在過去 10 年的業績可能看起來令人印象深刻，但這並不意味着它在未來能夠繼續為投資者帶來強勁的回報。</p>
<p>我不期待該股在今年恢復，我會等到它能夠證明自己能在增長業務的同時也能提高盈利能力時再考慮購買特斯拉的股票。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

南方兩倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票今年下跌了約 21%，與標準普爾 500 指數上漲 7% 形成對比。該公司面臨挑戰，包括負面新聞和季度利潤下降，這引發了對十年來可能出現第二年超過 20% 虧損的擔憂。儘管其歷史增長顯著，但高市場預期和競爭壓力使得復甦變得困難。分析師建議在特斯拉展示出改善的財務表現之前，暫時不要投資</p>

<p>Although it has been a good year overall for the markets, with the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> up 7% as of Thursday's market close, shares of electric vehicle maker <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.13%) have been going in the opposite direction and are down about 21%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管整體市場表現良好，截至週四市場收盤，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 上漲了 7%，但電動車製造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.13%) 的股價卻走向了相反的方向，下降了約 21%。</p>
</div><p>The company has been facing a lot of adversity in recent quarters and there's been plenty of negative press surrounding the business and its CEO, Elon Musk, which has undoubtedly weighed on the stock. If things don't improve soon, Tesla could be on track for one of its worst performances in recent years. And unlike in 2022, when the markets were in a tailspin, this time, it's doing badly amid <em>favorable</em> market conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司在最近幾個季度面臨了許多困難，圍繞其業務和首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克的負面報道層出不窮，這無疑對股價造成了壓力。如果情況不盡快改善，特斯拉可能會面臨近年來最糟糕的表現。與 2022 年市場動盪不同，這次是在_有利_的市場條件下表現不佳。</p>
</div><p>Could this be the start of a troubling trend for Tesla, or can now be a good time to take a chance on this struggling auto stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是否意味着特斯拉將開始一個令人擔憂的趨勢，還是現在是投資這隻掙扎中的汽車股票的好時機？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ3MTcvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1wZXJzb24tc2l0dGluZy1uZXh0LXRvLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824717%2Ffrustrated-person-sitting-next-to-a-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla is on track for an unusually bad year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉正面臨異常糟糕的一年</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has normally been a good investment. While it hasn't always outperformed the market, the automotive stock has generated returns of around 1,700% over the past decade, while the S&amp;P is up around 200% over that time frame. Tesla's good years have more than outweighed the bad ones during that stretch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉通常是一個不錯的投資。雖然它並不總是優於市場，但在過去十年中，這隻汽車股票的回報率約為 1700%，而同期標準普爾 500 指數的漲幅約為 200%。在這段時間內，特斯拉的好年份遠遠超過了壞年份。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500</th>
<th>Tesla Stock</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.3%</td>
<td>62.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.2%</td>
<td>101.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>(19.4%)</td>
<td>(65%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.9%</td>
<td>49.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>743.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.9%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>(6.2%)</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.4%</td>
<td>45.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>(11%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>(0.7%)</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>標準普爾 500 指數</th>
<th>特斯拉股票</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>23.3%</td>
<td>62.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>24.2%</td>
<td>101.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>(19.4%)</td>
<td>(65%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>26.9%</td>
<td>49.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2020</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>743.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2019</td>
<td>28.9%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2018</td>
<td>(6.2%)</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>19.4%</td>
<td>45.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>(11%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>(0.7%)</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: YCharts. Table by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：YCharts。表格由作者製作。</p>
</div><p>What's notable, however, is that only once during that stretch has the stock been down more than 20% in a single year -- that was back in 2022. As interest rates were on the rise and inflation was a big concern, that led to a disastrous performance for Tesla stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，值得注意的是，在這段時間內，只有一次股價在單一年份內下跌超過 20%——那是在 2022 年。由於利率上升和通貨膨脹成為重大問題，這導致特斯拉股票表現慘淡。</p>
</div><p>This year's losses may not be nearly as deep, but without a significant recovery, the stock may be on track for a decline of more than 20% for just the second time in 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年的損失可能沒有那麼嚴重，但如果沒有顯著的恢復，股價可能會在 10 年內第二次出現超過 20% 的下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Can Tesla turn things around this year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉今年能否扭轉局面？</h2>
</div><p>There's been a lot of bad press involving Tesla this year due to its CEO -- Elon Musk -- leading Donald Trump's Department of Government Efficiency initiative and its cutbacks in government spending. While Musk has stepped away from that role, which many investors see as a positive development for Tesla's business, that hasn't been enough of a catalyst to undo the stock's losses this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克領導唐納德·特朗普的政府效率部門倡議以及政府支出的削減，今年特斯拉麪臨了很多負面報道。雖然馬斯克已經退出了這一角色，許多投資者認為這對特斯拉的業務是一個積極的發展，但這並不足以成為扭轉股價下跌的催化劑。</p>
</div><p>The company's quarterly profits are the lowest they've been in years, as not only has discretionary spending come under pressure due to challenging economic conditions, but a rise in competition is also squeezing Tesla's gross margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的季度利潤是多年來最低的，不僅由於經濟環境嚴峻導致可支配支出受到壓力，競爭的加劇也在擠壓特斯拉的毛利率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62af5a492f629b37b95d52e39ba0adec.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/62af5a492f629b37b95d52e39ba0adec.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA Net Income (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉淨收入（季度）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>For Tesla's stock to turn things around, the business needs to show improvement on its bottom line, which may not be easy. The stock trades at around 180 times its trailing earnings, with its market cap still fairly high at around $1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了讓特斯拉的股票扭轉局面，企業需要在盈利能力上有所改善，這可能並不容易。該股票的市盈率約為 180 倍，市值仍然相當高，約為 1 萬億美元。</p>
</div><h2>Should you invest in Tesla right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在應該投資特斯拉嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has historically been a good growth investment, but it's not going to be easy for it to generate strong gains with its market cap as high as it is right now. At such a high price tag, expectations are also high, and Tesla simply hasn't been producing the results necessary to justify its steep premium. In the first three months of this year, the company's automotive revenue was down 20% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉歷來是一個不錯的成長投資，但在目前如此高的市值下，產生強勁收益將不容易。在如此高的價格下，預期也很高，而特斯拉顯然沒有產生足夠的結果來證明其高昂的溢價。今年前三個月，該公司的汽車收入同比下降了 20%。</p>
</div><p>Although it's a leading electric vehicle company, its high valuation means a lot of future growth is already priced in. Tesla's track record may look impressive over the past 10 years, but that doesn't mean it's likely to continue generating strong returns for investors in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管它是領先的電動車公司，但其高估值意味着許多未來的增長已經被市場定價。特斯拉在過去 10 年的業績可能看起來令人印象深刻，但這並不意味着它在未來能夠繼續為投資者帶來強勁的回報。</p>
</div><p>I don't expect the stock to recover this year, and I'd hold off on buying shares of Tesla until it can show that it can get back to growing its business while also growing its bottom line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不期待該股在今年恢復，我會等到它能夠證明自己能在增長業務的同時也能提高盈利能力時再考慮購買特斯拉的股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Could Be on Track to Do This for Only the Second Time in 10 Years. (Hint: It's Not a Good Thing)

- 特斯拉股價下跌約 21%，與整體市場表現相反。  
- 公司面臨負面新聞和競爭壓力，季度利潤降至多年低點。  
- 高估值使得未來增長預期高，短期內難以恢復。  

特斯拉股票可能在 10 年內第二次面臨這樣的情況。（提示：這並不是一件好事）