<p>在 <strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT -0.33%）於 7 月 30 日發佈季度財報之前，許多投資者可能正在密切關注這家軟件巨頭的股票。畢竟，最近該股經歷了令人難以置信的上漲。從 4 月 21 日到 7 月 17 日，股價上漲了 42%。不僅該股在經歷了一次與關税相關的市場拋售後，迅速恢復了 V 型反彈，而且還達到了新的歷史高點。問題是？目前的估值顯得相當高昂。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，該公司正在經歷令人印象深刻的業務勢頭。收入和利潤均以兩位數的速度增長，公司似乎在人工智能（AI）方面處於有利位置——無論是對其 AI 相關服務的需求增加，還是 AI 提升員工生產力帶來的成本效率。</p>
<p>但最大的問題是，股價是否上漲得太快，太高。顯然，該公司具有強大的勢頭。但如此高的估值是否已經將該股的樂觀前景考慮在內？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MDYvbXNmdC1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="485" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MDYvbXNmdC1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>加速增長</h2>
<p>微軟在 4 月底發佈的財政第三季度業績（其最近報告的季度）展示了公司表現良好的原因——以及投資者為何推高股價。收入同比增長 13%——較財政第二季度的 12% 增長加速。值得注意的是，調整外匯因素後，財政第三季度的收入實際上同比增長了 15%。此外，營業收入增長更快，增長了 16%，以固定匯率計算則增長了 19%。</p>
<p>微軟首席執行官薩提亞·納德拉在公司財政第三季度財報中表示：“雲計算和人工智能是每個企業擴展產出、降低成本和加速增長的基本要素。我們正在整個技術棧中進行創新，以滿足客户的需求，從 AI 基礎設施和平台到應用程序。”</p>
<p>推動本季度業績的是公司智能雲部門的收入同比增長 21%。該部門包括公司的雲計算業務 Azure。雲計算基礎設施系統和軟件部門貢獻了 33% 的同比收入增長。</p>
<p>但增長較慢的部門表現也不錯。例如，微軟的生產力和商業流程部門的收入同比增長了 10%，得益於微軟 365 訂閲的增長。</p>
<h2>高期望</h2>
<p>這種由盈利軟件和服務驅動的廣泛強勁表現，為公司的長期增長潛力提供了有力的支持。但考慮到目前股價的市盈率接近 40，估值是否過高？</p>
<p>鑑於該股最近的上漲，投資者不應過於興奮。一方面，微軟的平衡業務顯然值得高估值倍數。畢竟，該公司擁有健康的資產負債表、強大的產品組合，並且正在實現雙位數的收入和利潤增長。然而，40 的市盈率似乎已經反映了大量的樂觀情緒。</p>
<p>總體而言，我更傾向於將該股視為持有而非買入，尤其是在當前股價下。儘管該股估值較高，但我對這一觀點感到舒適的一個原因是，公司每個季度通過支付股息來降低一些風險。</p>
<p>微軟是一隻優秀的股息股票。儘管其股息收益率僅為 0.7%，但未來股息支付有很大的增長空間。這一點從公司支付的股息佔其收益的比例不到 25% 可以看出。此外，如果歷史能對未來有所指引，更多的股息增長是很可能的。該公司已經連續 23 年每年增加股息。</p>
<p>此外，微軟的股票回購計劃也有助於看漲的論點。由於有充足的現金，公司正在積極回購股票。結合股息和回購，公司在財政第三季度向股東返還了 97 億美元的資本，同比增長 15%。</p>
<p>總體而言，微軟的股票在當前價格下可能不是一個很好的買入選擇。另一方面，公司給股東提供了許多持有股票的理由。但考慮到該股的高估值，股東們應該預期會經歷一段波動的旅程。</p>

微軟

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微軟每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微軟每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微軟的股票從四月到七月上漲了 42%，在季度財報發佈前達到了歷史新高。儘管收入和利潤增長令人印象深刻，但其高估值引發了擔憂，市盈率接近 40。雖然公司在雲計算和人工智能服務方面展現出強勁的勢頭，但該股票可能更適合持有而非購買。微軟通過分紅和股票回購繼續回饋股東，但投資者應做好因股票高估值而可能出現的波動的準備</p>

<p>Ahead of <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s (MSFT -0.33%) quarterly earnings release on July 30, many investors are likely looking closely at their shares of the software giant. After all, the stock has seen an incredible run recently. Shares are up 42% from April 21 to July 17. Not only has the stock benefited from a sharp V-shaped recovery following a tariff-related sell-off that impacted much of the market, but it has also risen to a new all-time high. The problem? The valuation is now questionably rich.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT -0.33%）於 7 月 30 日發佈季度財報之前，許多投資者可能正在密切關注這家軟件巨頭的股票。畢竟，最近該股經歷了令人難以置信的上漲。從 4 月 21 日到 7 月 17 日，股價上漲了 42%。不僅該股在經歷了一次與關税相關的市場拋售後，迅速恢復了 V 型反彈，而且還達到了新的歷史高點。問題是？目前的估值顯得相當高昂。</p>
</div><p>To the company's credit, it's seeing impressive business momentum. Revenue and profit are both rising at double-digit rates, and the company appears well positioned to benefit from tailwinds in artificial intelligence (AI) -- both in terms of increased demand for its AI-related services and cost efficiencies as AI boosts employee productivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，該公司正在經歷令人印象深刻的業務勢頭。收入和利潤均以兩位數的速度增長，公司似乎在人工智能（AI）方面處於有利位置——無論是對其 AI 相關服務的需求增加，還是 AI 提升員工生產力帶來的成本效率。</p>
</div><p>But the big question is whether the stock has risen too far, too fast. Clearly, the company has great momentum. But has a sky-high valuation already priced in the bull case for this stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最大的問題是，股價是否上漲得太快，太高。顯然，該公司具有強大的勢頭。但如此高的估值是否已經將該股的樂觀前景考慮在內？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MDYvbXNmdC1zdG9jay5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825706%2Fmsft-stock.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Accelerating growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加速增長</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft's fiscal third-quarter results from late April (its most recently reported quarter) capture how well the company is doing -- and why investors are bidding shares higher. Revenue rose 13% year over year -- an acceleration from 12% growth in fiscal Q2. Notably, when adjusting for foreign exchange, fiscal third-quarter revenue actually rose 15% year over year. Additionally, operating income grew even faster, rising 16%, or 19% in constant currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟在 4 月底發佈的財政第三季度業績（其最近報告的季度）展示了公司表現良好的原因——以及投資者為何推高股價。收入同比增長 13%——較財政第二季度的 12% 增長加速。值得注意的是，調整外匯因素後，財政第三季度的收入實際上同比增長了 15%。此外，營業收入增長更快，增長了 16%，以固定匯率計算則增長了 19%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs, and accelerate growth,&#34; said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella in the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings release. &#34;From AI infra and platforms to apps, we are innovating across the stack to deliver for our customers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟首席執行官薩提亞·納德拉在公司財政第三季度財報中表示：“雲計算和人工智能是每個企業擴展產出、降低成本和加速增長的基本要素。我們正在整個技術棧中進行創新，以滿足客户的需求，從 AI 基礎設施和平台到應用程序。”</p>
</div><p>Driving the quarter's results was a 21% year-over-year increase in revenue from the company's intelligent cloud segment. Included in this segment is the company's cloud-computing business, Azure. The cloud-powering infrastructure systems and software segment contributed 33% year-over-year revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推動本季度業績的是公司智能雲部門的收入同比增長 21%。該部門包括公司的雲計算業務 Azure。雲計算基礎設施系統和軟件部門貢獻了 33% 的同比收入增長。</p>
</div><p>But slower-growing segments still did well. For instance, Microsoft's revenue from its productivity and business processes segment rose 10% year over year, helped by growing Microsoft 365 subscriptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但增長較慢的部門表現也不錯。例如，微軟的生產力和商業流程部門的收入同比增長了 10%，得益於微軟 365 訂閲的增長。</p>
</div><h2>High expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高期望</h2>
</div><p>Such broad-based strength, driven by lucrative software and services, makes a compelling case for the company's long-term growth potential. But with shares now trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of nearly 40, is the valuation simply too high?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種由盈利軟件和服務驅動的廣泛強勁表現，為公司的長期增長潛力提供了有力的支持。但考慮到目前股價的市盈率接近 40，估值是否過高？</p>
</div><p>Given the stock's recent run-up, investors shouldn't get too excited. On the one hand, Microsoft's balanced business clearly deserves a high valuation multiple. After all, the company has a healthy balance sheet, a strong suite of products, and is seeing double-digit top- and bottom-line growth. However, a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 seems to price in plenty of optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於該股最近的上漲，投資者不應過於興奮。一方面，微軟的平衡業務顯然值得高估值倍數。畢竟，該公司擁有健康的資產負債表、強大的產品組合，並且正在實現雙位數的收入和利潤增長。然而，40 的市盈率似乎已經反映了大量的樂觀情緒。</p>
</div><p>Altogether, I'd lean more toward calling the stock a hold instead of a buy at the stock's current price. One reason I'm comfortable with this view, despite the stock's high valuation, is that the company takes some risk off the table every quarter by paying investors a quarterly dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，我更傾向於將該股視為持有而非買入，尤其是在當前股價下。儘管該股估值較高，但我對這一觀點感到舒適的一個原因是，公司每個季度通過支付股息來降低一些風險。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is a great dividend stock. Though its dividend yield is just 0.7%, there's plenty of room for this dividend payment to grow over time. This is evident by the fact that the company is paying out less than 25% of its earnings in dividends. Additionally, if history is any indication of the future, more dividend increases are likely. The company has increased its dividend every year for 23 years straight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟是一隻優秀的股息股票。儘管其股息收益率僅為 0.7%，但未來股息支付有很大的增長空間。這一點從公司支付的股息佔其收益的比例不到 25% 可以看出。此外，如果歷史能對未來有所指引，更多的股息增長是很可能的。該公司已經連續 23 年每年增加股息。</p>
</div><p>Also helping the bull case is Microsoft's share repurchase program. With plenty of excess cash, the company is aggressively buying back its stock. Combining its dividends and repurchases, the company spent $9.7 billion returning capital to shareholders in fiscal Q3, up 15% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，微軟的股票回購計劃也有助於看漲的論點。由於有充足的現金，公司正在積極回購股票。結合股息和回購，公司在財政第三季度向股東返還了 97 億美元的資本，同比增長 15%。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Microsoft shares may not be a great buy at their current price. On the other hand, the company is giving shareholders plenty of reasons to hold onto their shares. But given the stock's premium valuation, shareholders should expect a bumpy ride.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，微軟的股票在當前價格下可能不是一個很好的買入選擇。另一方面，公司給股東提供了許多持有股票的理由。但考慮到該股的高估值，股東們應該預期會經歷一段波動的旅程。</p>
</div>

Buy Microsoft Stock Now, or Wait for a Pullback?

- 微軟股價自 4 月 21 日至 7 月 17 日上漲 42%，創下新高。  
- 第三季度營收同比增長 13%，雲計算和 AI 推動業績。  
- 當前市盈率接近 40，投資者應謹慎持股。  

現在是購買微軟股票的時機，還是應該等待股價回調？