<p>每個人都在談論 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.42%)，這種情況已經持續了幾年。這家人工智能（AI）巨頭的股票在過去五年中上漲了 1600%，並在本月達到了一個巨大的里程碑，成為首個市值達到 4 萬億美元的公司。</p>
<p>但如果讓我今天選擇一隻 AI 股票，我不會選擇 Nvidia。並不是因為 Nvidia 不是一家優秀的公司，潛力巨大，而是因為還有另一隻股票在我看來更具吸引力。</p>
<h2>AI 時刻</h2>
<p>老實説，我並沒有在尋找 AI 股票。許多投資者希望通過確定哪些股票能夠接觸到 AI 趨勢來獲利。這不是我投資的方式；我有一些標準來評估股票，這些標準可以適用於任何行業，儘管類別多樣化確實很重要。</p>
<p>但我理解投資 AI 的願望，尤其是如果你是一個成長型投資者。AI 領域正在經歷大量增長，預計未來還會有更多。Nvidia 本身報告了驚人的增長，包括最近一個季度收入同比增長 69%。根據 Grand View Research 的報告，AI 市場預計到 2030 年將以近 36% 的年複合增長率增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUyNjQvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtY29tcHV0ZXItY2hpcC1pbi1hLWZhY3RvcnkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUyNjQvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtY29tcHV0ZXItY2hpcC1pbi1hLWZhY3RvcnkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>然而，今天對 Nvidia 的看法不一，考慮到其高昂的交易價格。毫無疑問，它可以繼續增長，但其高估值存在一定風險，根據某些指標，它可能顯得昂貴。Nvidia 的股票交易價格與銷售比率為 29，市盈率為 55。它的確值得一定的溢價，但這就是溢價。</p>
<p>考慮到其規模，Nvidia 提供給投資者的增長可能存在上限。如果 Nvidia 的股票翻倍，它的市值將達到 8 萬億美元。如果你在尋找一隻能夠讓你資金翻倍的股票，Nvidia 可能無法像其他股票那樣迅速實現。</p>
<h2>另一種投資 AI 的方式</h2>
<p>那麼我會選擇哪隻股票呢？我最近購買了 <strong>台積電</strong>(TSM -2.12%) 的股票，所以這是一個簡單的答案。同樣，我並不是為了購買一隻 AI 股票而買它。它因多種原因引起了我的注意，其中之一是它的增長前景，這與需要其產品的 AI 進步密切相關。然而，如果它僅僅是一隻 AI 股票而沒有其他機會，我就不會考慮它。</p>
<p>這就是 TSMC 作為股票看起來有吸引力的原因之一：它不是一隻單一業務的公司。投資於純 AI 股票存在風險，就像投資於任何依賴當前趨勢的公司一樣。它在 2023 年曾短暫出現在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的投資組合中，這可以讓你感受到它的穩定性。當時，巴菲特稱其為 “世界上管理最好的公司之一和最重要的公司之一。” 巴菲特通常不會給出賣出股票的理由，但他對 TSM 的看法是公開的。他擔心其地理位置，看到了一些風險，這些風險在某種程度上今天已經顯現出來。他説：“優秀的人和優秀的競爭地位以及一切，” 但 “我寧願在美國找到它。”</p>
<p>我説它在某種程度上顯現出這些風險，因為它似乎確實容易受到關税變化的影響，但它仍然繼續展現出韌性和增長，並且也在採取措施使其全球工廠多樣化，減少對關税的依賴。這對投資論點來説是個好消息。</p>
<p>根據 Statista 的數據，台積電與許多客户合作，負責全球半導體市場的 58%。作為當前的領導者，它在一個進入壁壘高的行業中具有競爭優勢。由於它在多個領域擁有許多合作伙伴，因此它能夠抵禦任何一個領域的變化，例如 AI。</p>
<h2>頂級表現，巨大的增長潛力，合理的價格</h2>
<p>然後是你希望在優秀股票中看到的基本實力：穩健的增長，強勁的盈利能力和長期展望。</p>
<p>在第二季度，收入同比增長 39%，超出預期，淨收入增長 61%。毛利率提高了 5.1 個百分點，營業利潤率提高了 7.1 個百分點。包括 AI 在內的高性能計算部門佔總收入的 60%，但除了汽車部門保持平穩外，所有部門都實現了增長。AI 可能會繼續成為主要的增長驅動力，但它並沒有把所有的雞蛋放在一個籃子裏。</p>
<p>關於關税的擔憂依然存在，可能會出現進口商在關税上調前急於獲取芯片的需求激增。管理層指出，進口商負責關税，而不是 TSMC，並且它也在大力投資美國設施以抵消這些風險。</p>
<p>台積電的股票市盈率為 31，價格與銷售比率為 13，這對於一隻具有潛力的股票來説是合理的。如果你在尋找一隻不僅僅是 AI 的頂級 AI 股票，台積電是一個很好的選擇。</p>

台積電

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>這篇文章討論了作者在人工智能領域投資時更傾向於台積電（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing，TSMC）而非英偉達（Nvidia）。儘管英偉達經歷了顯著增長，並且是領先的人工智能公司，但其高估值帶來了風險。相比之下，台積電則提供了強勁的增長潛力、盈利能力以及在多個領域的多元化，使其成為更具吸引力的選擇。該公司在全球半導體市場中佔據了重要份額，並且在關税問題上表現出韌性。台積電最近的財務表現顯示出強勁的增長，特別是在高性能計算領域，包括人工智能</p>

<p>Everyone is talking about <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.42%), and it's been that way for a few years already. The artificial intelligence (AI) giant's stock gained 1,600% over the past five years, and it reached a tremendous milestone this month, becoming the first $4 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每個人都在談論 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.42%)，這種情況已經持續了幾年。這家人工智能（AI）巨頭的股票在過去五年中上漲了 1600%，並在本月達到了一個巨大的里程碑，成為首個市值達到 4 萬億美元的公司。</p>
</div><p>But if I had to choose an AI stock to buy today, it wouldn't be Nvidia. Not because Nvidia isn't an excellent company with lots of potential, but because there's another stock that looks more compelling to me today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果讓我今天選擇一隻 AI 股票，我不會選擇 Nvidia。並不是因為 Nvidia 不是一家優秀的公司，潛力巨大，而是因為還有另一隻股票在我看來更具吸引力。</p>
</div><h2>The AI moment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 時刻</h2>
</div><p>To be honest, I haven't been looking for an AI stock. Many investors want to cash in on AI trends by determining which stocks offer exposure to AI. That's not how I invest; I have criteria I look to satisfy in stocks that could be in any industry, although category diversification is definitely important.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>老實説，我並沒有在尋找 AI 股票。許多投資者希望通過確定哪些股票能夠接觸到 AI 趨勢來獲利。這不是我投資的方式；我有一些標準來評估股票，這些標準可以適用於任何行業，儘管類別多樣化確實很重要。</p>
</div><p>But I understand the desire to invest in AI, especially if you're a growth investor. There's tons of growth happening in AI, with a lot more expected. Nvidia itself is reporting fabulous increases, including a 69% rise in revenue year over year in its most recent quarter. According to Grand View Research, the AI market is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 36% through 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但我理解投資 AI 的願望，尤其是如果你是一個成長型投資者。AI 領域正在經歷大量增長，預計未來還會有更多。Nvidia 本身報告了驚人的增長，包括最近一個季度收入同比增長 69%。根據 Grand View Research 的報告，AI 市場預計到 2030 年將以近 36% 的年複合增長率增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUyNjQvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtY29tcHV0ZXItY2hpcC1pbi1hLWZhY3RvcnkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825264%2Fperson-looking-at-computer-chip-in-a-factory.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>However, there are mixed views on Nvidia today, trading as high as it is. There seems to be little doubt that it can continue to grow, but there's some risk in its sky-high value, and according to certain metrics, it could be expensive. Nvidia stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 29 and a P/E ratio of 55. It's worth a certain premium, but premium it is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，今天對 Nvidia 的看法不一，考慮到其高昂的交易價格。毫無疑問，它可以繼續增長，但其高估值存在一定風險，根據某些指標，它可能顯得昂貴。Nvidia 的股票交易價格與銷售比率為 29，市盈率為 55。它的確值得一定的溢價，但這就是溢價。</p>
</div><p>There also may be a ceiling on just how much growth it offers investors, considering its size. If Nvidia stock doubles, it will reach $8 trillion in market cap. If you're looking for a stock that can double your money, Nvidia may not be able to do that as quickly as other stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到其規模，Nvidia 提供給投資者的增長可能存在上限。如果 Nvidia 的股票翻倍，它的市值將達到 8 萬億美元。如果你在尋找一隻能夠讓你資金翻倍的股票，Nvidia 可能無法像其他股票那樣迅速實現。</p>
</div><h2>Another way to play AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>另一種投資 AI 的方式</h2>
</div><p>So which stock would I choose instead? I recently bought shares of <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM -2.12%), so that's an easy answer. Again, I didn't buy it to buy an AI stock. It stood out to me for a variety of reasons, one of which is its growth prospects, and that's tied to advances in AI that require its products. If, however, it was only an AI stock and didn't have other opportunities, I would not have considered it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼我會選擇哪隻股票呢？我最近購買了 <strong>台積電</strong>(TSM -2.12%) 的股票，所以這是一個簡單的答案。同樣，我並不是為了購買一隻 AI 股票而買它。它因多種原因引起了我的注意，其中之一是它的增長前景，這與需要其產品的 AI 進步密切相關。然而，如果它僅僅是一隻 AI 股票而沒有其他機會，我就不會考慮它。</p>
</div><p>So that's one reason TSMC looks attractive as a stock: It's not a one-trick pony. There are risks in investing in pure-play AI stocks like there are risks in investing in any company that relies on a current trend for its business. It was briefly in the <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> portfolio in 2023, which can give you a sense of its stability. At the time, Buffett called it &#34;one of the best-managed companies and [most] important companies in the world.&#34; Buffett doesn't usually give reasons for selling a stock, but he was open about his take on TSM. He was worried about its location, seeing risks that have to some degree played out today. &#34;Marvelous people and marvelous competitive position and everything,&#34; he said, &#34;[but] I'd rather find it in the United States.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是 TSMC 作為股票看起來有吸引力的原因之一：它不是一隻單一業務的公司。投資於純 AI 股票存在風險，就像投資於任何依賴當前趨勢的公司一樣。它在 2023 年曾短暫出現在 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> 的投資組合中，這可以讓你感受到它的穩定性。當時，巴菲特稱其為 “世界上管理最好的公司之一和最重要的公司之一。” 巴菲特通常不會給出賣出股票的理由，但他對 TSM 的看法是公開的。他擔心其地理位置，看到了一些風險，這些風險在某種程度上今天已經顯現出來。他説：“優秀的人和優秀的競爭地位以及一切，” 但 “我寧願在美國找到它。”</p>
</div><p>I say it played out that way to some degree because it does seem to be susceptible to changes in tariffs, but it has continued to demonstrate resilience and growth nonetheless, and it's also taking action to diversify its global factories and have less exposure to tariffs. That's a thumbs-up for the investing thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我説它在某種程度上顯現出這些風險，因為它似乎確實容易受到關税變化的影響，但它仍然繼續展現出韌性和增長，並且也在採取措施使其全球工廠多樣化，減少對關税的依賴。這對投資論點來説是個好消息。</p>
</div><p>TSMC works with many clients and is responsible for 58% of the global semiconductor market, according to Statista. As the current leader, it has an edge against the competition in an industry with high barriers to entry. Since it has many partners in many spaces, it's protected against changes in any one of them, like AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Statista 的數據，台積電與許多客户合作，負責全球半導體市場的 58%。作為當前的領導者，它在一個進入壁壘高的行業中具有競爭優勢。由於它在多個領域擁有許多合作伙伴，因此它能夠抵禦任何一個領域的變化，例如 AI。</p>
</div><h2>Top performance, huge growth potential, low price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>頂級表現，巨大的增長潛力，合理的價格</h2>
</div><p>Then there's the baseline strength you want to see in a great stock: solid growth, robust profitability, and a long-term outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後是你希望在優秀股票中看到的基本實力：穩健的增長，強勁的盈利能力和長期展望。</p>
</div><p>In the second quarter, revenue rose 39% year over year, topping estimates, and net income was up 61%. Gross margin improved by 5.1 percentage points, and operating margin by 7.1 percentage points. The high-performance computing segment, which includes AI, increased to 60% of the total, but all of its segments enjoyed growth except for automotive, which remained flat. AI is likely to remain the major growth driver for now, but it doesn't have all of its eggs in one basket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度，收入同比增長 39%，超出預期，淨收入增長 61%。毛利率提高了 5.1 個百分點，營業利潤率提高了 7.1 個百分點。包括 AI 在內的高性能計算部門佔總收入的 60%，但除了汽車部門保持平穩外，所有部門都實現了增長。AI 可能會繼續成為主要的增長驅動力，但它並沒有把所有的雞蛋放在一個籃子裏。</p>
</div><p>There are continued concerns about tariffs, and there may be a surge in demand for importers to get chips before tariffs are raised. Management has pointed out that importers are responsible for tariffs, not TSMC, and it's also heavily investing in U.S. facilities to offset these risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於關税的擔憂依然存在，可能會出現進口商在關税上調前急於獲取芯片的需求激增。管理層指出，進口商負責關税，而不是 TSMC，並且它也在大力投資美國設施以抵消這些風險。</p>
</div><p>Taiwan Semiconductor stock trades at a P/E ratio of 31 and a price-to-sales ratio of 13, which is reasonable for a stock with its potential. If you're looking for a top AI stock that's more than just AI, Taiwan Semiconductor is a great choice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台積電的股票市盈率為 31，價格與銷售比率為 13，這對於一隻具有潛力的股票來説是合理的。如果你在尋找一隻不僅僅是 AI 的頂級 AI 股票，台積電是一個很好的選擇。</p>
</div>

If I Could Load Up on Any Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock, It Would Be This One (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- Nvidia 股票在過去五年上漲 1,600%，成為首個市值 4 萬億美元的公司。  
- 但作者更看好台積電，認為其增長潛力更大，且不單依賴 AI。  
- 台積電在全球半導體市場佔有 58% 的份額，第二季度收入同比增長 39%。

如果我能大量投資於任何人工智能（AI）股票，我會選擇這隻股票（提示：不是英偉達）