<p>世界上最重要的公司之一將在 7 月 31 日公佈財報。<strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.46%）——iPhone、Apple Watch、Air Pods 等產品的製造商——將為投資者提供 2025 年第二季度的財務更新。在過去五年中，股票價格飆升，但在 2025 年最近遭遇了一些困難，年初至今（YTD）股價下跌了 14%，原因是對增長放緩和美國對其他國家實施關税的擔憂。</p>
<p>2025 年對蘋果來説是一個關鍵年份，因為它試圖尋找新的增長方式。這是否意味着你應該在 7 月 31 日財報公佈前買入或賣出股票？查看數據後，答案顯而易見。</p>
<h2>與同行保持增長的困難</h2>
<p>毫無疑問，iPhone 是有史以來最盈利的產品之一，但它在全球年銷售額方面正逐漸走向成熟。定價能力可以幫助這款每年 2000 億美元的產品在未來幾年中勉強實現一些增長，但客户的升級週期不斷延長將始終對產品增長構成持續的阻力。新款手機與舊款相似，幾乎沒有技術創新來刺激客户升級到最新設備。</p>
<p>iPhone 佔蘋果整體收入的一半。iPhone 收入的停滯——自 2021 年以來沒有增長——是蘋果整體收入在過去幾年幾乎沒有增長的原因。蘋果正在尋找下一個重磅計算產品。去年，它推出了 Apple Vision Pro，一款售價 3000 美元的混合現實頭顯。如今，顯然 Vision Pro 對公司來説是一次徹底的失敗，實際銷售的頭顯非常少。是的，蘋果的服務部門顯示出穩定的增長，在過去 12 個月中整體收入達到了創紀錄的 1000 億美元，但對於市值達到 3.1 萬億美元的股票來説，這不會帶來巨大的推動。</p>
<p>蘋果需要一款新的硬件設備來將其業務提升到一個新的水平。除非發生這種情況，否則它將繼續落後於其大型科技同行。通過對比蘋果、<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 在過去五年的收入增長，可以看出這一點。蘋果的收入增長了 46%，自 2022 年以來沒有增長，而微軟增長了 83.5%，亞馬遜增長了 86.9%，字母表增長了 109.5%。其他大型科技公司正在將蘋果甩在身後。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9a66d2ae94947a735253790e721d54.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="490" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9a66d2ae94947a735253790e721d54.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 收入（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<h2>中國的潛在復甦</h2>
<p>蘋果面臨的另一個阻力是中國，那裏本土科技公司和智能手機制造商正在搶佔 iPhone 的市場份額。自 2022 年 3 月以來，該國的收入一直在下降，這令人失望，因為它曾是蘋果的重要增長引擎。然而，第三方分析師估計，蘋果在第二季度的中國收入同比增長了 8%，這可能意味着情況在今年有所好轉。</p>
<p>從長遠來看，投資者很難對蘋果在中國持樂觀態度。該國有一個&#34;中國製造 2025&#34;的計劃，正在降低對西方品牌的需求。蘋果在中國作為品牌具有很強的吸引力，但很難與這樣的政府阻力抗衡。此外，美國與中國之間的關税和貿易戰，蘋果可能會被捲入其中，因為它在中國進行大部分製造。這是投資者在購買蘋果股票之前需要考慮的風險。</p>
<p>其他國家可能會在一定程度上支持收入增長，例如印度及其龐大的人口。然而，這些國家目前僅佔蘋果銷售的一小部分，未來幾年不會對其合併財務產生影響。公司的增長將主要依賴於北美和中國。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTIvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTIvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>在財報公佈前，你應該買入還是賣出蘋果股票？</h2>
<p>在今天的市值下，蘋果的市盈率（P/E）為 33。這遠高於其長期平均水平，甚至高於一些收入增長更快的大型科技同行，如字母表。</p>
<p>展望未來，除了提高 iPhone 價格和逐步增加服務收入外，很難找到蘋果增長的理由。它在人工智能（AI）方面幾乎沒有存在感，沒有云計算戰略，也未能在新的計算範式中取得突破。在接下來的幾年裏，投資者似乎將被困在同樣的老蘋果及其 iPhone、計算機和配件產品中。</p>
<p>儘管這是世界上最好的品牌之一，但投資者應該在蘋果第二季度財報公佈前賣出蘋果股票。這隻股票幾乎沒有增長的空間。</p>

蘋果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>蘋果公司定於 7 月 31 日公佈 2025 年第二季度財報，當前股價年初至今已下跌 14%，主要由於增長放緩和關税影響。iPhone 佔蘋果收入的一半，自 2021 年以來增長停滯，公司在現有產品之外的創新面臨困難。儘管其服務部門正在增長，但仍不足以推動顯著的股價增長。分析師建議中國市場可能會出現復甦，但由於政府政策和競爭，長期增長仍然不確定。由於市盈率高達 33，投資者在尋找蘋果的增長催化劑時面臨挑戰</p>

<p>One of the most important companies in the world reports earnings on July 31. <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.46%) -- maker of the iPhone, Apple Watch, Air Pods, and more -- is set to give investors another financial update for the second quarter of 2025. The stock has soared in the last five years but has recently hit a rough patch in 2025, with shares down 14% year to date (YTD) due to concerns over slowing growth and tariffs implemented by the United States on other nations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界上最重要的公司之一將在 7 月 31 日公佈財報。<strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.46%）——iPhone、Apple Watch、Air Pods 等產品的製造商——將為投資者提供 2025 年第二季度的財務更新。在過去五年中，股票價格飆升，但在 2025 年最近遭遇了一些困難，年初至今（YTD）股價下跌了 14%，原因是對增長放緩和美國對其他國家實施關税的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Apple as it tries to find new ways to grow. Does that mean you should buy or sell the stock before the July 31 earnings? The answer is clear when looking at the numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年對蘋果來説是一個關鍵年份，因為它試圖尋找新的增長方式。這是否意味着你應該在 7 月 31 日財報公佈前買入或賣出股票？查看數據後，答案顯而易見。</p>
</div><h2>Struggles to keep growing with peers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>與同行保持增長的困難</h2>
</div><p>It is undoubtedly one of the most profitable products ever, but the iPhone is now hitting maturity in relation to its annual sales around the globe. Pricing power can help the $200 billion-per-year product eke out a little bit of growth in the coming years, but the fact that upgrade cycles for customers keep expanding will be a consistent headwind for product growth. New phones are now similar to older models, with little technological innovation to spur customers to upgrade to the latest devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，iPhone 是有史以來最盈利的產品之一，但它在全球年銷售額方面正逐漸走向成熟。定價能力可以幫助這款每年 2000 億美元的產品在未來幾年中勉強實現一些增長，但客户的升級週期不斷延長將始終對產品增長構成持續的阻力。新款手機與舊款相似，幾乎沒有技術創新來刺激客户升級到最新設備。</p>
</div><p>The iPhone makes up half of Apple's overall revenue. Stagnation in iPhone revenue -- which hasn't grown since 2021 -- is why Apple's overall revenue has barely grown in the last few years. It is searching for the next blockbuster computing product. Last year, it debuted the Apple Vision Pro, a $3,000 mixed reality headset. Today, it is clear that the Vision Pro has been a total flop for the company, with very few headsets actually sold. Yes, Apple's services division is showing steady growth, hitting a record $100 billion in overall revenue in the last 12 months, but it is not going to be a huge needle mover for a stock with a market cap of $3.1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 佔蘋果整體收入的一半。iPhone 收入的停滯——自 2021 年以來沒有增長——是蘋果整體收入在過去幾年幾乎沒有增長的原因。蘋果正在尋找下一個重磅計算產品。去年，它推出了 Apple Vision Pro，一款售價 3000 美元的混合現實頭顯。如今，顯然 Vision Pro 對公司來説是一次徹底的失敗，實際銷售的頭顯非常少。是的，蘋果的服務部門顯示出穩定的增長，在過去 12 個月中整體收入達到了創紀錄的 1000 億美元，但對於市值達到 3.1 萬億美元的股票來説，這不會帶來巨大的推動。</p>
</div><p>Apple needs a new hardware device to take its business to the next level. Unless that happens, it will keep falling behind its big technology peers. We can see this by indexing revenue growth for Apple, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong> in the last five years. Apple's revenue is up 46% and hasn't grown since 2022, while Microsoft's is up 83.5%, Amazon's is up 86.9%, and Alphabet's is up 109.5%. The other big technology players are leaving Apple in the dust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果需要一款新的硬件設備來將其業務提升到一個新的水平。除非發生這種情況，否則它將繼續落後於其大型科技同行。通過對比蘋果、<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 在過去五年的收入增長，可以看出這一點。蘋果的收入增長了 46%，自 2022 年以來沒有增長，而微軟增長了 83.5%，亞馬遜增長了 86.9%，字母表增長了 109.5%。其他大型科技公司正在將蘋果甩在身後。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9a66d2ae94947a735253790e721d54.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b9a66d2ae94947a735253790e721d54.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 收入（TTM）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Potential recovery in China</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中國的潛在復甦</h2>
</div><p>Another headwind for Apple has been China, where homegrown technology players and smartphone makers have been taking market share from iPhones. Revenue in the country has been in decline since March 2022, which is disappointing since it used to be such a big growth engine for Apple. However, things may be turning around this year, with third-party analysts estimating that China revenue grew 8% year over year for Apple in Q2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果面臨的另一個阻力是中國，那裏本土科技公司和智能手機制造商正在搶佔 iPhone 的市場份額。自 2022 年 3 月以來，該國的收入一直在下降，這令人失望，因為它曾是蘋果的重要增長引擎。然而，第三方分析師估計，蘋果在第二季度的中國收入同比增長了 8%，這可能意味着情況在今年有所好轉。</p>
</div><p>Over the long term, it is hard for investors to be bullish on Apple in China. The country has a &#34;Made in China 2025&#34; mandate, which is driving down demand for Western brands. Apple has a fantastic pull as a brand in China, but it is hard to fight government headwinds like this. There is also the tariff and trade war between the United States and China, which Apple could end up being caught right in the middle of, since it does the majority of its manufacturing in China. This is a risk that investors need to consider before buying Apple stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從長遠來看，投資者很難對蘋果在中國持樂觀態度。該國有一個&#34;中國製造 2025&#34;的計劃，正在降低對西方品牌的需求。蘋果在中國作為品牌具有很強的吸引力，但很難與這樣的政府阻力抗衡。此外，美國與中國之間的關税和貿易戰，蘋果可能會被捲入其中，因為它在中國進行大部分製造。這是投資者在購買蘋果股票之前需要考慮的風險。</p>
</div><p>Other countries may provide some level of support to revenue growth, such as India and its large population. However, these are only a tiny portion of Apple's sales today and won't affect its consolidated financials for many years. The company's growth will be driven by North America and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他國家可能會在一定程度上支持收入增長，例如印度及其龐大的人口。然而，這些國家目前僅佔蘋果銷售的一小部分，未來幾年不會對其合併財務產生影響。公司的增長將主要依賴於北美和中國。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3MTIvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825712%2Fwoman-looking-at-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy or sell Apple stock before earnings?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在財報公佈前，你應該買入還是賣出蘋果股票？</h2>
</div><p>At today's market cap, Apple trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 33. This is much higher than its long-term average, and even higher than some of its big technology peers like Alphabet that are growing revenue much faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今天的市值下，蘋果的市盈率（P/E）為 33。這遠高於其長期平均水平，甚至高於一些收入增長更快的大型科技同行，如字母表。</p>
</div><p>Looking toward the future, it is difficult to find reasons for Apple to grow besides raising prices on iPhones and incremental services revenue. It has shown zero presence in artificial intelligence (AI), has no cloud computing strategy, and has failed to leap ahead into new computing paradigms. For at least the next few years, it looks like investors will be stuck with the same old Apple and its iPhone, computer, and accessories products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，除了提高 iPhone 價格和逐步增加服務收入外，很難找到蘋果增長的理由。它在人工智能（AI）方面幾乎沒有存在感，沒有云計算戰略，也未能在新的計算範式中取得突破。在接下來的幾年裏，投資者似乎將被困在同樣的老蘋果及其 iPhone、計算機和配件產品中。</p>
</div><p>Even though this is one of the best brands in the world, investors should sell Apple before its Q2 earnings report. There isn't much growth left to be had with this stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這是世界上最好的品牌之一，但投資者應該在蘋果第二季度財報公佈前賣出蘋果股票。這隻股票幾乎沒有增長的空間。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy or Sell Apple Stock Before July 31? The Answer May Surprise You

- 蘋果公司將於 7 月 31 日發佈 2025 年第二季度財報。  
- 由於 iPhone 收入停滯和市場競爭加劇，股價年初至今下跌 14%。  
- 投資者需謹慎，未來增長前景不明，建議在財報前賣出。

在 7 月 31 日之前，你是否應該買入或賣出蘋果股票？這個答案可能會讓你意外