<p>財報季正式來臨，全球一些最大的公司將在接下來的幾天內公佈其季度財務報告。在這個財報季，我將關注的兩隻關鍵股票是 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 1.11%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.58%)，這兩家公司都面臨挑戰。特斯拉在電動車銷售中失去了市場份額，而蘋果的增長因其旗艦 iPhone 在全球的成熟而放緩。</p>
<p>在接下來的幾天內——特斯拉將在 7 月 23 日，蘋果將在 7 月 31 日——這兩家公司將公佈其第二季度的財報，投資者高度警惕。在報告之前，這兩家公司中是否有賣出的機會？</p>
<h2>蘋果的停滯增長</h2>
<p>蘋果在智能手機領域的主導地位毋庸置疑，這一類別是其在 2007 年推出 iPhone 時普及的，距今已近 20 年。如今，iPhone 硬件銷售每年達到 2000 億美元，軟件和服務收入也在其上層疊加。儘管這仍然是一個很好的業務，但增長速度並不快。由於每年新設備之間的差異微乎其微，智能手機的升級購買正在減少（這意味着消費者不再頻繁購買新型號）。這導致自 2022 年 COVID-19 消費熱潮以來，蘋果設備的銷售停滯不前。</p>
<p>最終，蘋果需要在計算硬件上邁出下一步，否則將面臨技術上的落後。例如，它在增強現實和虛擬現實領域已經落後於 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，後者每年銷售數百萬台新款基於眼鏡的硬件。蘋果試圖通過 Vision Pro 耳機進入這一市場，但結果不佳，可能已經停產。</p>
<p>停滯的增長對蘋果來説是一個擔憂。它需要開發出巨大的、廣受歡迎的產品，以推動其 4000 億美元的收入基礎。由於沒有新產品在即，且在熱門的人工智能市場的努力微薄，預測蘋果的收入在未來幾年將大幅快於通貨膨脹是困難的。</p>
<p>在考慮股票估值時，這成為一個問題。目前，蘋果的市盈率 (P/E) 為 33，這通常是高增長股票的收益比率。最終，蘋果必須重新開始增長，否則將面臨市盈率壓縮和股價下跌的風險。這意味着你應該考慮在蘋果即將公佈第二季度財報之前賣出蘋果股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NTUvZXYtYXQtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="455" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NTUvZXYtYXQtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的市場份額下降</h2>
<p>如果蘋果的投資者需要擔心停滯的增長，那麼特斯拉的投資者面臨的問題更為嚴重：銷售下降。上個季度，特斯拉的汽車收入同比下降 20%，降至 140 億美元。由於汽車製造部門固定槓桿的解除，利潤的下滑幅度甚至比收入更大。過去 12 個月，運營收入比歷史最高點下降了近 50%。</p>
<p>這一季度的前景也不樂觀。特斯拉對客户的單位銷售持續下滑，已報告第二季度交付量為 384,000 輛，而去年同期為 443,000 輛。該品牌在美國、歐洲和中國的市場份額正在被其他電動車初創企業和傳統汽車製造商的競爭所侵蝕。</p>
<p>在美國，電動車的税收抵免即將到期，這將使客户購買特斯拉的成本增加。特斯拉被迫削減售價，這損害了其利潤率。</p>
<p>儘管面臨巨大挑戰，特斯拉的股票仍以 179 的高市盈率交易。以 1 萬億美元的市值，它需要實現 400 億美元或更多的淨收入，才能獲得一個相對合理的估值。在過去 12 個月中，它的收益為 64 億美元，僅在短暫時間內達到了超過 100 億美元的年化水平。特斯拉在短期內實現 400 億美元的底線利潤的可能性似乎不切實際。</p>
<p>我可以理解為何投資者在當前價格下應持有蘋果股票的論點。但對於繼續冒險持有特斯拉股票沒有合理的理由。在第二季度財報發佈之前，賣掉你的股份是明智的選擇。</p>

<p>隨着財報季的臨近，投資者被建議在即將發佈的第二季度財報之前考慮出售蘋果和特斯拉的股票。由於智能手機升級放緩和增強現實領域的競爭，蘋果面臨增長停滯的問題，而特斯拉則面臨汽車收入同比下降 20% 以及市場份額被競爭對手侵蝕的困境。兩家公司都擁有較高的市盈率，這引發了對其估值的擔憂。分析師指出，如果沒有顯著的增長，這兩隻股票在財報發佈後可能會面臨下行壓力</p>

<p>Earnings season is officially upon us, and some of the biggest companies in the world are set to report their quarterly financials in the coming days. Two key stocks I will be watching this earnings season are <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 1.11%) and <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.58%), which are both hitting speed bumps. Tesla is losing market share in electric vehicle sales, while Apple's growth has slowed with the flagship iPhone maturing around the globe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>財報季正式來臨，全球一些最大的公司將在接下來的幾天內公佈其季度財務報告。在這個財報季，我將關注的兩隻關鍵股票是 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 1.11%) 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.58%)，這兩家公司都面臨挑戰。特斯拉在電動車銷售中失去了市場份額，而蘋果的增長因其旗艦 iPhone 在全球的成熟而放緩。</p>
</div><p>In the coming days -- July 23 for Tesla and July 31 for Apple -- the companies will report their second-quarter earnings, and investors are on high alert. Is either company a sell before their report?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下來的幾天內——特斯拉將在 7 月 23 日，蘋果將在 7 月 31 日——這兩家公司將公佈其第二季度的財報，投資者高度警惕。在報告之前，這兩家公司中是否有賣出的機會？</p>
</div><h2>Apple's stagnant growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的停滯增長</h2>
</div><p>Apple's dominance in smartphones is undeniable, a category it popularized by releasing the iPhone in 2007, almost 20 years ago. Today, iPhone hardware sales are at $200 billion annually, with a lot of software and services revenue layered on top. It is still a great business, but one that is not growing quickly. Smartphone upgrades are decreasing (meaning customers aren't buying new models as often) because of the little difference between new devices every passing year. This has caused a stagnation in Apple device sales since 2022 after the COVID-19 spending boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果在智能手機領域的主導地位毋庸置疑，這一類別是其在 2007 年推出 iPhone 時普及的，距今已近 20 年。如今，iPhone 硬件銷售每年達到 2000 億美元，軟件和服務收入也在其上層疊加。儘管這仍然是一個很好的業務，但增長速度並不快。由於每年新設備之間的差異微乎其微，智能手機的升級購買正在減少（這意味着消費者不再頻繁購買新型號）。這導致自 2022 年 COVID-19 消費熱潮以來，蘋果設備的銷售停滯不前。</p>
</div><p>Eventually, Apple will need to take the next step up in computing hardware or risk getting left behind technologically. For example, it is losing out so far in augmented and virtual reality to <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, which is selling millions of its new glasses-based hardware every year. Apple tried to enter this market with the Vision Pro headset, but it was a flop and has likely been discontinued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，蘋果需要在計算硬件上邁出下一步，否則將面臨技術上的落後。例如，它在增強現實和虛擬現實領域已經落後於 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，後者每年銷售數百萬台新款基於眼鏡的硬件。蘋果試圖通過 Vision Pro 耳機進入這一市場，但結果不佳，可能已經停產。</p>
</div><p>Stagnant growth is a concern for Apple. It needs to develop huge, widely bought products in order to move the needle for its $400 billion revenue base. With no products on the horizon and meager efforts in the hot AI market, it is hard to predict that Apple's revenue will grow substantially faster than inflation in the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>停滯的增長對蘋果來説是一個擔憂。它需要開發出巨大的、廣受歡迎的產品，以推動其 4000 億美元的收入基礎。由於沒有新產品在即，且在熱門的人工智能市場的努力微薄，預測蘋果的收入在未來幾年將大幅快於通貨膨脹是困難的。</p>
</div><p>This is a problem when looking at the stock's valuation. Today, Apple has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 33, which is an earnings ratio typically reserved for high-growth stocks. Eventually, Apple is going to have to start growing again or risk multiple compression and a falling share price. This means you should consider selling Apple stock before it soon reports Q2 earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考慮股票估值時，這成為一個問題。目前，蘋果的市盈率 (P/E) 為 33，這通常是高增長股票的收益比率。最終，蘋果必須重新開始增長，否則將面臨市盈率壓縮和股價下跌的風險。這意味着你應該考慮在蘋果即將公佈第二季度財報之前賣出蘋果股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NTUvZXYtYXQtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825755%2Fev-at-home.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's declining market share</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的市場份額下降</h2>
</div><p>If Apple investors need to be worried about stagnant growth, then Tesla investors have an even worse issue: declining sales. Last quarter, Tesla's automotive revenue declined 20% year-over-year to $14 billion. Profits are moving in the wrong direction and even worse than revenue due to the fixed leverage unwinding in the automotive manufacturing division. Operating income is off close to 50% from all-time highs over the last 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果蘋果的投資者需要擔心停滯的增長，那麼特斯拉的投資者面臨的問題更為嚴重：銷售下降。上個季度，特斯拉的汽車收入同比下降 20%，降至 140 億美元。由於汽車製造部門固定槓桿的解除，利潤的下滑幅度甚至比收入更大。過去 12 個月，運營收入比歷史最高點下降了近 50%。</p>
</div><p>This quarter does not look promising, either. Tesla's unit sales to customers continue to slide and it already reported Q2 deliveries of 384,000 compared to 443,000 in the year-ago quarter. The brand is losing market share in the United States, Europe, and China to increasing competition among other electric vehicle upstarts and legacy automotive players.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一季度的前景也不樂觀。特斯拉對客户的單位銷售持續下滑，已報告第二季度交付量為 384,000 輛，而去年同期為 443,000 輛。該品牌在美國、歐洲和中國的市場份額正在被其他電動車初創企業和傳統汽車製造商的競爭所侵蝕。</p>
</div><p>In the United States, tax credits for electric vehicles are expiring, which will make it more expensive for customers to buy a Tesla. It has been forced to slash its selling prices, which has hurt its profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國，電動車的税收抵免即將到期，這將使客户購買特斯拉的成本增加。特斯拉被迫削減售價，這損害了其利潤率。</p>
</div><p>Even though it is struggling mightily, Tesla stock trades at a nosebleed P/E ratio of 179. At a market cap of $1 trillion, it will need to grow into net income of $40 billion or more just to get a somewhat reasonable valuation. It generated $6.4 billion in earnings over the last 12 months and only briefly hit an annualized rate of over $10 billion. The likelihood that Tesla achieves a bottom-line profit of $40 billion anytime soon seems far-fetched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管面臨巨大挑戰，特斯拉的股票仍以 179 的高市盈率交易。以 1 萬億美元的市值，它需要實現 400 億美元或更多的淨收入，才能獲得一個相對合理的估值。在過去 12 個月中，它的收益為 64 億美元，僅在短暫時間內達到了超過 100 億美元的年化水平。特斯拉在短期內實現 400 億美元的底線利潤的可能性似乎不切實際。</p>
</div><p>I can understand an argument for why an investor should hold Apple stock at today's prices. But there is no rational argument for continuing to risk your portfolio in Tesla shares. It would be prudent to sell your stake before this Q2 earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我可以理解為何投資者在當前價格下應持有蘋果股票的論點。但對於繼續冒險持有特斯拉股票沒有合理的理由。在第二季度財報發佈之前，賣掉你的股份是明智的選擇。</p>
</div>

Should You Sell These 2 Popular "Magnificent Seven" Stocks Before They Report Earnings?

- 蘋果和特斯拉即將公佈第二季度財報，投資者高度關注。  
- 蘋果面臨增長停滯，特斯拉銷售下滑，市場份額減少。  
- 建議在財報前考慮出售蘋果和特斯拉股票。

Motley Fool

蘋果

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方兩倍做多特斯拉

南方兩倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

蘋果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

蘋果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

T-Rex 2X Long Apple Daily Target ETF

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Apple Aapl ETF

YieldMax AAPL Option Income Strategy ETF

在這兩隻受歡迎的 “七大巨頭” 股票公佈財報之前，你是否應該賣掉它們？