<p>投資者可能不會將 <strong>奈飛</strong>(NFLX 1.91%) 視為十年前那種熱門成長股，但儘管普遍認為它是一家成熟公司，這隻股票在過去幾年卻一路高歌猛進。</p>
<p>在 2022 年股價暴跌後，公司經歷了連續兩個季度的用户流失，重新審視了戰略，推出了廣告層，儘管多年來一直表示不會這樣做。它還加強了對密碼共享的打擊，並嘗試了體育等現場活動。</p>
<p>因此，股票在過去三年中飆升，漲幅超過 500%，如下圖所示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png"/></p>
<p>NFLX 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>奈飛在未來三年內不太可能重複這一壯舉，至少在沒有重大新業務擴展的情況下，但翻倍似乎是一個合理的目標。它能做到嗎？投資者在最新的財報中獲得了一些線索。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NDgvc3RyZWFtaW5nLXJlbW90ZS1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi10di5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NDgvc3RyZWFtaW5nLXJlbW90ZS1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi10di5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>第二季度對觀眾來説是個成功，但對投資者卻不然</h2>
<p>奈飛的股票在週五的第二季度財報發佈後下跌了 5%。儘管數據強勁，但近期股價的飆升提高了市場對公司的預期。收入增長了 16%，達到 111 億美元，創下四個季度以來的最快增長率，但結果基本符合預期。</p>
<p>該流媒體平台停止報告用户數量，因此不容易看出是什麼推動了業務增長。管理層表示，增長是由用户增加、廣告業務增長以及北美等市場的價格上漲共同推動的。公司現在在所有市場使用其專有的廣告技術平台 Netflix Ads Suite，顯示出它迅速將廣告作為業務核心驅動因素的一部分。</p>
<p>得益於其訂閲商業模式，公司的利潤率隨着業務增長而持續擴大，廣告業務也可能促進了利潤率的增長，因為它使公司能夠以新的方式變現內容，並吸引那些不想為無廣告層支付費用的預算有限的用户。運營利潤率從一年前的 27.2% 擴大到 34.1%，每股收益（EPS）從 4.88 美元躍升至 7.19 美元，超出市場共識的 7.06 美元。</p>
<p>管理層警告稱，隨着內容支出增加，利潤率將在下半年下降。例如，其第三季度的指導預期運營利潤率為 31.5%，但公司也將全年指導從 435 億至 445 億美元上調至 448 億至 452 億美元。它現在預計貨幣中性運營利潤率將擴大至 29.5%，高於之前預測的 29%。</p>
<p>隨着廣告引擎的起步，業務似乎正在全面開花。奈飛繼續擴展其內容的廣度，多個系列和電影在季度內吸引了超過 5000 萬觀眾。</p>
<p>會員在上半年觀看了 950 億小時，增長了 1%，公司的本地內容戰略也取得了成效，非英語內容現在佔其觀看量的三分之一以上。這些趨勢都為未來三年的業務發展帶來了良好前景。</p>
<h2>奈飛的股票能否達到 2500 美元？</h2>
<p>奈飛在過去三年的飆升主要歸功於業務的改善，但它也受益於市盈率的擴張。你可以在下圖中看到這一點，儘管這不包括最近的季度。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png"/></p>
<p>NFLX 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>考慮到第二季度的收益，奈飛的市盈率（P/E）將接近 50，但這仍然很昂貴，尤其是對於一隻不久前被視為成熟的股票。</p>
<p>要讓奈飛的股價翻倍，它可能需要憑藉自身的實力來實現，正如週五財報後的拋售所示，儘管結果強勁。投資者似乎認為這隻股票現在已經包含了足夠的增長，這使得進一步的漲幅變得更加困難。</p>
<p>奈飛可以將每股收益翻倍，但可能需要超過三年的時間才能做到。不過，考慮到其兩位數的收入增長、擴大的運營利潤率以及向新業務擴展的潛力，在未來五年內每股收益翻倍似乎是一個合理的假設。</p>
<p>這隻流媒體股票可能在 2028 年前翻倍，但必須超越已經很高的門檻。這並不容易。</p>

奈飛

<p>奈飛的股票在過去三年中上漲了超過 500%，儘管人們普遍認為它是一家成熟公司。最近發佈的第二季度財報顯示，收入增長了 16%，達到了 111 億美元，但由於市場預期過高，財報發佈後股價下跌了 5%。運營利潤率從 27.2% 提高至 34.1%，每股收益上升至 7.19 美元。雖然奈飛通過廣告和內容擴展來尋求增長，但到 2028 年將其股價翻倍將需要付出重大努力，因為當前估值較高，進一步的漲幅可能會面臨挑戰</p>

<p>Investors may not think of <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX 1.91%) as the hot growth stock it was a decade ago, but the stock has been on a warpath over the last few years, despite the broader perception that it's a mature company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者可能不會將 <strong>奈飛</strong>(NFLX 1.91%) 視為十年前那種熱門成長股，但儘管普遍認為它是一家成熟公司，這隻股票在過去幾年卻一路高歌猛進。</p>
</div><p>After the stock tumbled in 2022, following two straight quarters of subscriber declines, the company went back to the drawing board, launching an advertising tier after years of saying it wouldn't. It also cracked down on password-sharing and experimented with live events, like sports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年股價暴跌後，公司經歷了連續兩個季度的用户流失，重新審視了戰略，推出了廣告層，儘管多年來一直表示不會這樣做。它還加強了對密碼共享的打擊，並嘗試了體育等現場活動。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the stock has skyrocketed, gaining more than 500% over the last three years as the chart below shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，股票在過去三年中飆升，漲幅超過 500%，如下圖所示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png"/></p>
<p>NFLX data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NFLX 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Netflix isn't going to repeat that feat over the next three years, at least without a major new expansion of the business, but a double seems like a reasonable goal. Can it get there? Investors just got some clues in its latest earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛在未來三年內不太可能重複這一壯舉，至少在沒有重大新業務擴展的情況下，但翻倍似乎是一個合理的目標。它能做到嗎？投資者在最新的財報中獲得了一些線索。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU3NDgvc3RyZWFtaW5nLXJlbW90ZS1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi10di5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825748%2Fstreaming-remote-in-front-of-tv.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Q2 was a hit with viewers, but not investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>第二季度對觀眾來説是個成功，但對投資者卻不然</h2>
</div><p>Netflix stock slipped 5% on the second-quarter report on Friday. The numbers were strong, but the recent surge in the share price has raised expectations for the company. Revenue was up 16% to $11.1 billion, marking its fastest growth rate in four quarters, but the result essentially matched estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛的股票在週五的第二季度財報發佈後下跌了 5%。儘管數據強勁，但近期股價的飆升提高了市場對公司的預期。收入增長了 16%，達到 111 億美元，創下四個季度以來的最快增長率，但結果基本符合預期。</p>
</div><p>The streamer stopped reporting subscriber counts, so it's not as easy to see what's driving the business growth. Management said it was driven by a combination of subscriber additions, growth in the ad business, and price hikes in markets like North America. The company is now using its proprietary ad tech platform, Netflix Ads Suite, in all of its markets, showing it's rapidly embraced advertising as part of the core driver of its business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該流媒體平台停止報告用户數量，因此不容易看出是什麼推動了業務增長。管理層表示，增長是由用户增加、廣告業務增長以及北美等市場的價格上漲共同推動的。公司現在在所有市場使用其專有的廣告技術平台 Netflix Ads Suite，顯示出它迅速將廣告作為業務核心驅動因素的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to its subscription business model, the company's profit margin continues to expand as the business grows, and the ad business is likely contributing to margin growth as it's allowed the company to monetize its content in a new way and attract budget-conscious subscribers who didn't want to pay for the ad-free tier. Operating margin expanded from 27.2% in the quarter a year ago to 34.1%, and earnings per share (EPS) jumped from $4.88 to $7.19, beating the consensus at $7.06.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益於其訂閲商業模式，公司的利潤率隨着業務增長而持續擴大，廣告業務也可能促進了利潤率的增長，因為它使公司能夠以新的方式變現內容，並吸引那些不想為無廣告層支付費用的預算有限的用户。運營利潤率從一年前的 27.2% 擴大到 34.1%，每股收益（EPS）從 4.88 美元躍升至 7.19 美元，超出市場共識的 7.06 美元。</p>
</div><p>Management warned that margins would fall in the second half of the year as content expenses grew. Its third-quarter guidance, for example, called for 31.5% operating margin, but the company also raised its full-year guidance from $43.5 billion-$44.5 billion to $44.8 billion-$45.2 billion. It now sees currency-neutral operating margin expanding to 29.5%, up from a previous forecast at 29%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理層警告稱，隨着內容支出增加，利潤率將在下半年下降。例如，其第三季度的指導預期運營利潤率為 31.5%，但公司也將全年指導從 435 億至 445 億美元上調至 448 億至 452 億美元。它現在預計貨幣中性運營利潤率將擴大至 29.5%，高於之前預測的 29%。</p>
</div><p>The business seems to be firing on all cylinders as the ad engine takes off. Netflix continues to expand the breadth of its content with several series and films bringing audiences of 50 million or more in the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着廣告引擎的起步，業務似乎正在全面開花。奈飛繼續擴展其內容的廣度，多個系列和電影在季度內吸引了超過 5000 萬觀眾。</p>
</div><p>Members watched 95 billion hours in the first half of the year, a 1% increase, and the company's local content strategy is paying off, as well, as non-English content now represents more than a third of its viewing. Those trends all bode well for the business over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>會員在上半年觀看了 950 億小時，增長了 1%，公司的本地內容戰略也取得了成效，非英語內容現在佔其觀看量的三分之一以上。這些趨勢都為未來三年的業務發展帶來了良好前景。</p>
</div><h2>Can Netflix stock get to $2,500?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>奈飛的股票能否達到 2500 美元？</h2>
</div><p>Netflix's surge over the last three years is primarily due to the improvements in the business, but it's also benefited from multiple expansion. You can see that in the chart below, though that doesn't include the most recent quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛在過去三年的飆升主要歸功於業務的改善，但它也受益於市盈率的擴張。你可以在下圖中看到這一點，儘管這不包括最近的季度。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9f824c45f5a88c0aad9c9e424f1541e5.png"/></p>
<p>NFLX data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NFLX 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Factoring in second-quarter earnings, Netflix's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) would be closer to 50, but that's still pricey, especially for a stock that was regarded as mature not long ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到第二季度的收益，奈飛的市盈率（P/E）將接近 50，但這仍然很昂貴，尤其是對於一隻不久前被視為成熟的股票。</p>
</div><p>For Netflix to double from here, it will likely have to earn it on its own merits, as Friday's post-earnings sell-off shows, despite the strong results. Investors seem to feel the stock now has enough growth baked in, which makes further gains more difficult.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要讓奈飛的股價翻倍，它可能需要憑藉自身的實力來實現，正如週五財報後的拋售所示，儘管結果強勁。投資者似乎認為這隻股票現在已經包含了足夠的增長，這使得進一步的漲幅變得更加困難。</p>
</div><p>Netflix can double earnings per share, but it may take more than three years to do it. Still, with its double-digit revenue, expanding operating margins, and potential to expand into new businesses, doubling EPS in the next five years seems like a fair assumption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>奈飛可以將每股收益翻倍，但可能需要超過三年的時間才能做到。不過，考慮到其兩位數的收入增長、擴大的運營利潤率以及向新業務擴展的潛力，在未來五年內每股收益翻倍似乎是一個合理的假設。</p>
</div><p>The streaming stock could double by 2028 but will have to top an already high bar. That won't be easy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這隻流媒體股票可能在 2028 年前翻倍，但必須超越已經很高的門檻。這並不容易。</p>
</div>

Can Netflix Stock Double by 2028?

- Netflix 股票在過去三年上漲超過 500%，儘管被視為成熟公司。  
- 第二季度營收增長 16% 至 111 億美元，運營利潤率從 27.2% 增至 34.1%。  
- 管理層預計下半年利潤率將下降，但全年營收預期上調至 448 億至 452 億美元。  

奈飛的股票能在 2028 年翻倍嗎？