<p><strong>ASML</strong>(ASML 1.53%) 的股票在 7 月 16 日的交易日中一度下跌超過 11%，最終收盤下跌 8.3%。然而，這隻成長股在接下來的幾天中繼續下跌，目前過去一年已下跌 21%。</p>
<p>該公司製造先進的光刻機，芯片製造商使用這些機器來生產由 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.06%) 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO 1.83%) 設計的芯片。ASML 的極紫外（EUV）系統在每個硅晶圓中集成了前所未有數量的晶體管，提高了精度並降低了製造成本。這些機器是人工智能（AI）革命背後的動力。</p>
<p>以下是關於 ASML 拋售的你需要知道的內容，以及這是否會對 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 造成影響，使其從歷史高點回落。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU1ODgvbGlnaHQtaGl0cy1hLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXItaWxsdXN0cmF0aW5nLXRoZS1jb21wbGV4aXR5LW9mLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItbWFudWZhY3R1cmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU1ODgvbGlnaHQtaGl0cy1hLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXItaWxsdXN0cmF0aW5nLXRoZS1jb21wbGV4aXR5LW9mLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItbWFudWZhY3R1cmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>ASML 的穩健業績被其指引所掩蓋</h2>
<p>ASML 在 7 月 16 日公佈了其最新的季度業績。它在第二季度表現出色，並預計全年收入增長 15%，毛利率略有上升。該半導體設備供應商重申了其 2030 年的目標，預計收入將比 2024 年的 283 億歐元（328.1 億美元）增長 55% 至 112%，毛利率將從低 50% 區間擴展至 56% 至 60%。</p>
<p>毛利率的擴張可能是由於公司預計其銷售組合中 EUV 機器的增加。目前，其較舊且技術較低的深紫外（DUV）機器仍佔新銷售的大部分。ASML 通過為客户提供現有機器的服務來獲得可觀的收入。隨着銷售組合轉向更昂貴的 EUV 機器，毛利率應該會增長，尤其是其約 4 億美元的超高數值孔徑（高-NA）版本。</p>
<p>短期業績和 2030 年的目標不是問題。相反，問題在於模糊的中期前景。ASML 提到地緣政治挑戰和宏觀經濟逆風正在影響其客户及其支出時機。</p>
<p>該公司直接受到對其美國製造中心和現場運營的進口關税的影響。ASML 還從全球各地採購組件來製造其機器，因此它的供應鏈複雜，容易受到關税的影響。</p>
<p>儘管 ASML 是一家荷蘭公司，但荷蘭與美國在貿易政策上密切合作。這限制了 ASML 向中國銷售產品的能力，儘管中國對半導體光刻系統的需求迅速增長。根據目前的情況，ASML 無法向中國銷售其最先進的系統，只能銷售較舊、成本較低的設備。</p>
<p>關税還有間接影響，可能涉及更嚴重的行業整體放緩和客户情緒的轉變。鑑於不確定性，ASML 表示無法確認其將在 2026 年實現增長。這可能是股票拋售的原因。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 在 AI 價值鏈中位於 ASML 的上游</h2>
<p>ASML 最新的財報和管理層評論提醒我們半導體行業的週期性。儘管對 AI 的熱情和支出廣泛存在，但由於地緣政治或宏觀經濟原因，仍然可能出現下滑，從關税和貿易政策到利率和投資週期的時機。</p>
<p>在 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 的投資者開始擔憂之前，重要的是要記住 ASML 的銷售週期與這兩家公司截然不同。ASML 在最新季度僅售出了 76 台新的光刻機。這不到每天一台。你很難找到一家市值近 2900 億美元的公司，其訂單量如此之小。但這證明了 ASML 尖端技術的複雜性。該公司幾乎壟斷市場，其客户願意為其機器支付高價，因為如果能夠降低成本並提高精度，從長遠來看是值得的。但由於這些設備價格昂貴，關鍵客户更容易決定推遲一兩年的購買，以等待更有利的條件。</p>
<p>在最新季度，ASML 表示 35% 的新系統銷售來自台灣，27% 來自中國，19% 來自韓國，10% 來自美國，9% 來自其他地方。你可以肯定，台灣的大部分銷售將給 <strong>台灣半導體制造</strong>(TSM 2.35%)，韓國可能是 <strong>三星電子</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%)，而美國主要是 <strong>英特爾</strong>(INTC 0.97%)。</p>
<p>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 也有國際曝光。但由於它們不僅僅是每季度銷售幾項大宗商品，因此它們的銷售週期截然不同。Nvidia 主要通過銷售圖形處理單元（GPU）、軟件和相關基礎設施來為超大規模企業構建 AI 生態系統來賺取大部分收入。像 <strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT 0.05%) 這樣的超大規模企業正在獲取自由現金流，並將資本支出投入到 AI 投資中，從而使 Nvidia 受益。</p>
<p>Broadcom 正在從超大規模企業的 AI 芯片中經歷爆炸性增長。但 Broadcom 在 AI 之外還有很多業務，包括網絡連接、網絡安全、寬帶、無線和基礎設施軟件。</p>
<p>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 都具有國際曝光，並且容易受到貿易緊張和關税風險的影響，但它們的銷售週期與 ASML 截然不同。因此，ASML 對即將放緩的警告並不一定意味着 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 也會如此。然而，如果晶圓廠（製造商）放慢投資，可能會導致積壓增加，從而延遲芯片設計師的發貨。</p>
<h2>從半導體行業的全局來看</h2>
<p>ASML 股票的拋售是對短期指引的反應，與長期投資無關。處理任何芯片股票，尤其是像英偉達和博通這樣估值昂貴的股票，最好的方法是採取長期視角，最好是至少三到五年。</p>
<p>如果你相信全球連接和人工智能的長期增長，並且認為英偉達和博通將繼續保持行業領先地位，那麼這兩隻股票可能值得購買和持有。即使有幾個季度或幾年的糟糕收益，最終也會被長期投資論點所彌補。</p>
<p>然而，股票價格越是超出盈利增長，估值越是昂貴，股票價格中充斥的泡沫就越多，這種泡沫可能會像進來時一樣迅速消失。因此，以正確的心態看待這些股票至關重要，並接受地緣政治和宏觀經濟因素在短期內對這些公司的股價可能產生巨大影響。</p>

博通

阿斯麥

英偉達

<p>ASML 的股票在過去一年中下跌超過 21%，在 7 月 16 日下跌了 8.3%。儘管季度業績穩健且長期前景積極，ASML 仍面臨影響客户支出的地緣政治和宏觀經濟挑戰。這種不確定性引發了對可能對英偉達和博通產生連鎖反應的擔憂，因為這兩家公司在人工智能價值鏈的上游運營。ASML 的銷售週期與英偉達和博通顯著不同，因為它銷售的光刻機數量較少且成本較高，這使得客户更容易推遲購買。由於半導體行業的週期性和外部壓力，投資者變得謹慎</p>

<p><strong>ASML</strong>(ASML 1.53%) stock was down over 11% at one point during the trading day July 16 before closing the session down 8.3%. However, the growth stock continued falling over the next couple of days and is now down 21% over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>ASML</strong>(ASML 1.53%) 的股票在 7 月 16 日的交易日中一度下跌超過 11%，最終收盤下跌 8.3%。然而，這隻成長股在接下來的幾天中繼續下跌，目前過去一年已下跌 21%。</p>
</div><p>The company makes advanced lithography machines that chip manufacturers use to produce chips designed by companies like <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.06%) and <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO 1.83%). ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems pack an unprecedented number of transistors into each silicon wafer, advancing precision and lowering manufacturing costs. These machines are the muscle behind the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司製造先進的光刻機，芯片製造商使用這些機器來生產由 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.06%) 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO 1.83%) 設計的芯片。ASML 的極紫外（EUV）系統在每個硅晶圓中集成了前所未有數量的晶體管，提高了精度並降低了製造成本。這些機器是人工智能（AI）革命背後的動力。</p>
</div><p>Here's what you need to know about the ASML sell-off, and whether it could have ripple effects that could drag Nvidia and Broadcom down from their all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是關於 ASML 拋售的你需要知道的內容，以及這是否會對 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 造成影響，使其從歷史高點回落。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjU1ODgvbGlnaHQtaGl0cy1hLXNpbGljb24td2FmZXItaWxsdXN0cmF0aW5nLXRoZS1jb21wbGV4aXR5LW9mLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItbWFudWZhY3R1cmluZy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825588%2Flight-hits-a-silicon-wafer-illustrating-the-complexity-of-semiconductor-manufacturing.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>ASML's solid results were overshadowed by its guidance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ASML 的穩健業績被其指引所掩蓋</h2>
</div><p>ASML reported its most recent quarterly results on July 16. It had a great second quarter and is guiding for 15% revenue growth and slightly higher gross margins for the full year. The semiconductor equipment supplier reaffirmed its 2030 targets, which forecast revenue to increase by 55% to 112% from its 2024 results of 28.3 billion euros ($32.81 billion), and gross margin expansion from the low 50% range to 56% to 60%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 在 7 月 16 日公佈了其最新的季度業績。它在第二季度表現出色，並預計全年收入增長 15%，毛利率略有上升。該半導體設備供應商重申了其 2030 年的目標，預計收入將比 2024 年的 283 億歐元（328.1 億美元）增長 55% 至 112%，毛利率將從低 50% 區間擴展至 56% 至 60%。</p>
</div><p>The margin expansion is likely due to the company's anticipated increase in EUV machines in its sales mix. Right now, its older and less advanced deep ultraviolet machines (DUV) still make up the bulk of new sales. ASML brings in a significant amount of revenue by servicing existing machines for its customers. Margins should grow as the sales mix shifts to more expensive EUV machines -- especially its roughly $400 million ultra-powered high-numerical aperture (high-NA) versions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率的擴張可能是由於公司預計其銷售組合中 EUV 機器的增加。目前，其較舊且技術較低的深紫外（DUV）機器仍佔新銷售的大部分。ASML 通過為客户提供現有機器的服務來獲得可觀的收入。隨着銷售組合轉向更昂貴的 EUV 機器，毛利率應該會增長，尤其是其約 4 億美元的超高數值孔徑（高-NA）版本。</p>
</div><p>The near-term results and the 2030 targets aren't the issue. Rather, it's a murky medium-term outlook. ASML cited geopolitical challenges and macroeconomic headwinds that are affecting its customers and the timing of their spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期業績和 2030 年的目標不是問題。相反，問題在於模糊的中期前景。ASML 提到地緣政治挑戰和宏觀經濟逆風正在影響其客户及其支出時機。</p>
</div><p>The company is directly affected by tariffs on imports to its U.S. manufacturing centers and field operations. ASML also sources components from around the world to build its machines, so it has a complex supply chain that is vulnerable to tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司直接受到對其美國製造中心和現場運營的進口關税的影響。ASML 還從全球各地採購組件來製造其機器，因此它的供應鏈複雜，容易受到關税的影響。</p>
</div><p>Although ASML is a Dutch company, the Netherlands works closely with the U.S. on trade policy. This limits ASML's ability to sell products to China, despite China's rapidly growing demand for semiconductor lithography systems. As it stands today, ASML can't sell its most advanced systems to China -- just older, lower-cost units.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 ASML 是一家荷蘭公司，但荷蘭與美國在貿易政策上密切合作。這限制了 ASML 向中國銷售產品的能力，儘管中國對半導體光刻系統的需求迅速增長。根據目前的情況，ASML 無法向中國銷售其最先進的系統，只能銷售較舊、成本較低的設備。</p>
</div><p>There's also the indirect effect of tariffs, which could involve a more severe industrywide slowdown and a shift in customer sentiment. Given the uncertainty, ASML said that it cannot confirm it will grow in 2026. That's likely the reason that the stock is selling off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關税還有間接影響，可能涉及更嚴重的行業整體放緩和客户情緒的轉變。鑑於不確定性，ASML 表示無法確認其將在 2026 年實現增長。這可能是股票拋售的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia and Broadcom operate upstream of ASML along the AI value chain</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 在 AI 價值鏈中位於 ASML 的上游</h2>
</div><p>ASML's latest earnings report and management commentary were a reminder of the cyclicality of the semiconductor industry. Despite widespread enthusiasm and spending on AI, downturns can still happen for geopolitical or macroeconomic reasons, from tariffs and trade policy to interest rates and the timing of the investment cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 最新的財報和管理層評論提醒我們半導體行業的週期性。儘管對 AI 的熱情和支出廣泛存在，但由於地緣政治或宏觀經濟原因，仍然可能出現下滑，從關税和貿易政策到利率和投資週期的時機。</p>
</div><p>Before Nvidia and Broadcom investors start to worry, it's important to remember that ASML operates in a very different sales cycle from those two companies. ASML sold just 76 new lithography units in its latest quarter. That's less than one sale per day. You would be hard-pressed to find a company with a market cap of nearly $290 billion with an order volume that small. But it's a testament to the sophistication of ASML's cutting-edge tech. The company has a virtual monopoly, and its customers are willing to pay a high price for its machines because they're worth it in the long run if they can reduce costs and improve precision. But because these units are so expensive, it's easier for a key customer to decide to delay a purchase by a year or two to wait for more favorable conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 的投資者開始擔憂之前，重要的是要記住 ASML 的銷售週期與這兩家公司截然不同。ASML 在最新季度僅售出了 76 台新的光刻機。這不到每天一台。你很難找到一家市值近 2900 億美元的公司，其訂單量如此之小。但這證明了 ASML 尖端技術的複雜性。該公司幾乎壟斷市場，其客户願意為其機器支付高價，因為如果能夠降低成本並提高精度，從長遠來看是值得的。但由於這些設備價格昂貴，關鍵客户更容易決定推遲一兩年的購買，以等待更有利的條件。</p>
</div><p>In its latest quarter, ASML said that 35% of new system sales were in Taiwan, while 27% were in China, 19% were in South Korea, 10% were in the U.S., and 9% were in other places. You can bet that the majority of sales in Taiwan are going to <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 2.35%), South Korea is probably <strong>Samsung Electronics</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%), and the U.S. is mostly <strong>Intel</strong>(INTC 0.97%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最新季度，ASML 表示 35% 的新系統銷售來自台灣，27% 來自中國，19% 來自韓國，10% 來自美國，9% 來自其他地方。你可以肯定，台灣的大部分銷售將給 <strong>台灣半導體制造</strong>(TSM 2.35%)，韓國可能是 <strong>三星電子</strong>(SSNL.F 9.01%)，而美國主要是 <strong>英特爾</strong>(INTC 0.97%)。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia and Broadcom have international exposure, too. But their sales cycle is far different because they aren't just selling a few big-ticket items every quarter. Nvidia makes most of its money selling graphics processing units (GPUs), software, and associated infrastructure to build AI ecosystems for hyperscalers. Hyperscalers like <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.05%) are raking in the free cash flow and pouring capital expenditures into AI investments -- benefiting Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 也有國際曝光。但由於它們不僅僅是每季度銷售幾項大宗商品，因此它們的銷售週期截然不同。Nvidia 主要通過銷售圖形處理單元（GPU）、軟件和相關基礎設施來為超大規模企業構建 AI 生態系統來賺取大部分收入。像 <strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT 0.05%) 這樣的超大規模企業正在獲取自由現金流，並將資本支出投入到 AI 投資中，從而使 Nvidia 受益。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom is experiencing explosive growth from hyperscalers for its AI chips. But Broadcom does a lot outside AI, from network connectivity to cybersecurity, broadband, wireless, and infrastructure software.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Broadcom 正在從超大規模企業的 AI 芯片中經歷爆炸性增長。但 Broadcom 在 AI 之外還有很多業務，包括網絡連接、網絡安全、寬帶、無線和基礎設施軟件。</p>
</div><p>Both Nvidia and Broadcom have international exposure and are vulnerable to trade tensions and tariff risks, but their sales cycles are distinctly different from ASML's. So ASML's warning of an impending slowdown doesn't necessarily mean the same for Nvidia and Broadcom. However, if fabs (the fabricators) slow down their investment, it could lead to a backlog buildup, which could delay shipments for chip designers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 和 Broadcom 都具有國際曝光，並且容易受到貿易緊張和關税風險的影響，但它們的銷售週期與 ASML 截然不同。因此，ASML 對即將放緩的警告並不一定意味着 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 也會如此。然而，如果晶圓廠（製造商）放慢投資，可能會導致積壓增加，從而延遲芯片設計師的發貨。</p>
</div><h2>Zooming out in the semiconductor industry</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>從半導體行業的全局來看</h2>
</div><p>The sell-off in ASML stock is a reaction to near-term guidance and has nothing to do with the long-term investment. The best way to approach any chip stock, especially ones with expensive valuations like Nvidia and Broadcom, is to take a long-term view, preferably at least three to five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 股票的拋售是對短期指引的反應，與長期投資無關。處理任何芯片股票，尤其是像英偉達和博通這樣估值昂貴的股票，最好的方法是採取長期視角，最好是至少三到五年。</p>
</div><p>If you believe in the long-term growth of global connectivity and AI and that Nvidia and Broadcom will remain industry leaders, then both stocks are probably worth buying and holding. Even a few quarters or a few years of bad earnings will ultimately be made up for by the long-term investment thesis playing out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你相信全球連接和人工智能的長期增長，並且認為英偉達和博通將繼續保持行業領先地位，那麼這兩隻股票可能值得購買和持有。即使有幾個季度或幾年的糟糕收益，最終也會被長期投資論點所彌補。</p>
</div><p>However, the further stock prices outpace earnings growth, and the more expensive valuations become, the more hot air fills the stock price, which can go out just as fast as it went in. Therefore, it's essential to approach these stocks with the right mindset and accept that geopolitical and macroeconomic factors can have a massive effect on the stock prices of these companies in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股票價格越是超出盈利增長，估值越是昂貴，股票價格中充斥的泡沫就越多，這種泡沫可能會像進來時一樣迅速消失。因此，以正確的心態看待這些股票至關重要，並接受地緣政治和宏觀經濟因素在短期內對這些公司的股價可能產生巨大影響。</p>
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Does the ASML Stock Sell-Off Signal Trouble for Nvidia and Broadcom?

- ASML 股價在 7 月 16 日一度下跌超過 11%，最終收盤下跌 8.3%。  
- 公司預計 2023 年收入增長 15%，但面臨地緣政治和宏觀經濟挑戰。  
- ASML 的警告可能影響 Nvidia 和 Broadcom，但兩者銷售週期不同。  

阿斯麥股票的拋售是否意味着英偉達和博通將面臨困境？