<p>近三年來，人工智能（AI）的崛起主導了華爾街的討論。普華永道的分析師認為，AI 驅動的軟件和系統能夠在沒有人類監督的情況下做出瞬間決策，這一前景將改變遊戲規則，預計到本世紀末可以為全球經濟增加 15.7 萬億美元。</p>
<p>沒有哪家公司比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.75%）更直接地受益於 AI 的演變。自 2023 年開始，Nvidia 從一家邊緣重要的科技公司變成了市值超過 4 萬億美元的最有價值上市公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的崛起反映了其 AI 圖形處理單元（GPU）在高計算數據中心運營的企業中是無可替代的。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell GPU 的訂單已經積壓，這使得公司能夠對其硬件收取三位數百分比的溢價，相較於其他外部競爭對手。</p>
<p>首席執行官黃仁勳正在努力確保他的公司在 AI 領域保持計算領導地位。黃仁勳預計每年推出一款新的先進 AI 芯片，接下來是 Blackwell Ultra（2025）、Vera Rubin（2026）和 Vera Rubin Ultra（2027）。後兩者將基於全新的 Vera 處理器。</p>
<p>最後，Nvidia 的 CUDA 軟件平台將一切聯繫在一起。CUDA 是開發者用來最大化其 Nvidia 硬件計算潛力的工具。它實際上是保持買家忠誠於 Nvidia 生態系統的關鍵。</p>
<p>對於華爾街和投資者來説，毫無疑問，Nvidia 在 8 月 27 日的財務第二季度運營結果是最重要的（Nvidia 的財年在 1 月底結束）。雖然大多數分析師預計將再次出現爆炸性表現，但在 8 月 27 日，AI 革命的面孔可能會面臨不少於五個原因的挑戰。</p>
<h2>1. 內部競爭開始對利潤率施加壓力</h2>
<p>對於大多數投資者來説，外部競爭被視為對 Nvidia AI-GPU 主導地位的最大威脅。直接競爭對手包括 <strong>超微半導體</strong> 和中國的華為等。</p>
<p>儘管來自外部競爭對手的 GPU 數量隨着每個季度的推移而增加，但這並不是投資者應該擔心的威脅。對 Nvidia 來説，最大的風險來自內部。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的一些最大客户（想想 “七大奇蹟” 成員）正在開發 AI-GPU 以部署在他們的數據中心。雖然這些芯片不會在公開市場上與 Nvidia 的硬件競爭，但它們對 Nvidia 的增長構成了多種危險：</p>
<ul>
<li>它們減少了 AI-GPU 的稀缺性，而 Nvidia 正是利用這一點來提升其定價能力並提高其毛利率。</li>
<li>它們明顯比 Nvidia 的硬件便宜，這可能對 Nvidia 的定價能力施加額外的下行壓力。</li>
<li>與 Nvidia 的 GPU 不同，它們不會出現積壓。這可能會減緩升級週期，從而削弱 Nvidia 未來的增長預測。</li>
</ul>
<h2>2. 特朗普總統的互惠關税引入預測不確定性</h2>
<p>另一個可能阻礙 AI 革命面孔的逆風是特朗普總統的關税和貿易政策。</p>
<p>4 月 2 日，總統公佈了 10% 的全球關税，以及對被認為與美國存在不利貿易失衡的數十個國家的更高 “互惠關税”。這些互惠關税率在 4 月 9 日暫停 90 天，並於 7 月 7 日通過行政命令再次延長至 8 月 1 日。從今天起一週後，它們將生效。</p>
<p>特朗普的關税和貿易政策令人擔憂之處在於，它為 Nvidia 的情況引入了不確定性，而在此之前，完美和透明度已被定價。如果貿易協議未達成，報復性關税、供應鏈問題和不利影響利潤率的更高價格都可能出現。</p>
<p>也就是説，截至 7 月 22 日，Nvidia 的增長預測遠非確定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLWNlby1qZW5zZW4taHVhbmctZGVsaXZlcnMtZ3RjLWtleW5vdGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLWNlby1qZW5zZW4taHVhbmctZGVsaXZlcnMtZ3RjLWtleW5vdGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>黃仁勳在 GTC 上發表主題演講。圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>3. 黃仁勳的創新週期開始引發不滿</h2>
<p>另一個可能讓華爾街不滿並使 Nvidia 失去其地位的因素是公司的創新週期。</p>
<p>通常，積極投資開發新技術會受到投資者的豐厚回報。但在技術進步和通過對外部競爭對手收取三位數溢價來維持 70% 以上的毛利率之間存在着微妙的平衡。</p>
<p>例如，黃仁勳每年推出一款新的 AI-GPU 的目標存在迅速貶值前一代芯片價值的風險。如果 Hopper GPU 的價值暴跌，購買了大量 Hopper GPU 的客户以及租賃計算能力的數據中心將不太可能升級到新芯片。</p>
<p>另一種可能性是，隨着 Nvidia 推出更快和更高價的 GPU，企業可能會選擇以折扣價購買前一代芯片。我們可能會開始看到這反映在公司更弱的毛利率預測中。</p>
<h2>4. 特朗普政府在出口限制上反覆無常</h2>
<p>自 2022 年 10 月以來，喬·拜登和唐納德·特朗普政府已限制向中國出口高性能 AI 芯片及相關設備。儘管 Nvidia 專門開發了其最高性能 AI 芯片的簡化版本，但兩屆政府均已取消其向世界第二大經濟體出口的能力。</p>
<p>好消息是，特朗普政府最近（不到兩週前）撤銷了出口禁令，這使得英偉達可以向中國銷售其較不先進的 H20 芯片。雖然這一消息使英偉達的股票飆升，但這也做出了一個危險的假設，即特朗普政府不會對這一決定反覆無常。</p>
<p>儘管美國商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克建議允許向中國銷售 AI 芯片將使公司依賴美國技術，但特朗普及其政府在過去六個月中對關税和貿易政策的改變次數不計其數。與中國尚未達成任何貿易協議，英偉達的技術仍有可能被用作特朗普獲取其所需的籌碼。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7814310564931bdfdd023653c9de17d1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7814310564931bdfdd023653c9de17d1.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。PS 比率=市銷率。</p>
<h2>5. 歷史終於追上英偉達的高估值</h2>
<p>英偉達在 8 月 27 日的派對可能結束的第五個也是最後一個原因是歷史終於追上了其過高的估值。</p>
<p>我堅信，擁有可持續護城河和壟斷市場份額的公司應當獲得高估值……<em>在一定程度上</em>。去年夏天，英偉達的股票市銷率（P/S）達到了 42，這與互聯網泡沫破裂前華爾街領先企業的峯值過去 12 個月（TTM）市銷率大致相符。</p>
<p>儘管英偉達在過去兩年中銷售額激增，但截至 7 月 22 日，其 TTM 市銷率仍為 28。沒有任何市場領先公司能夠在較長時間內維持如此高的溢價。這表明英偉達幾乎沒有犯錯的餘地，其股票將因最輕微的失誤或感知的不確定性而受到懲罰。</p>

英偉達

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達作為人工智能技術的領導者，在 8 月 27 日的財年第二季度業績發佈前面臨潛在挑戰。主要擔憂包括主要客户開發自有 AI-GPU 帶來的內部競爭、特朗普總統關税的不確定性，以及快速創新可能導致對舊型號需求下降的風險。儘管英偉達在人工智能需求中表現出色，但這些因素可能會影響其定價能力和增長預測，令其在人工智能市場的未來表現引發疑問</p>

<p>For nearly three years, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has dominated discussion on Wall Street. The prospect of AI-empowered software and systems making split-second decisions without the oversight of humans is a game-changer that the analysts at PwC believe can add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by the turn of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近三年來，人工智能（AI）的崛起主導了華爾街的討論。普華永道的分析師認為，AI 驅動的軟件和系統能夠在沒有人類監督的情況下做出瞬間決策，這一前景將改變遊戲規則，預計到本世紀末可以為全球經濟增加 15.7 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>No company has been a more direct beneficiary of the evolution of AI than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.75%). Since 2023 began, Nvidia has gone from being a tech company of fringe importance to the most-valuable publicly traded company at north of $4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有哪家公司比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.75%）更直接地受益於 AI 的演變。自 2023 年開始，Nvidia 從一家邊緣重要的科技公司變成了市值超過 4 萬億美元的最有價值上市公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826253%2Fnvidia-voyager-headquarters-artificial-intelligence-gpu-ai-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's ascension is a reflection of its AI-graphic processing units (GPUs) being the bee's knees among businesses operating high-compute data centers. Orders for Nvidia's Hopper (H100) and Blackwell GPUs are backlogged, which has allowed the company to charge a triple-digit percentage premium for its hardware, when compared to other external competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的崛起反映了其 AI 圖形處理單元（GPU）在高計算數據中心運營的企業中是無可替代的。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell GPU 的訂單已經積壓，這使得公司能夠對其硬件收取三位數百分比的溢價，相較於其他外部競爭對手。</p>
</div><p>CEO Jensen Huang is doing his part to ensure that his company remains the compute leader in the AI space. Huang anticipates bringing a new advanced AI chip to market annually, with Blackwell Ultra (2025), Vera Rubin (2026), and Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) next in line. The latter two will operate on the all-new Vera processor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席執行官黃仁勳正在努力確保他的公司在 AI 領域保持計算領導地位。黃仁勳預計每年推出一款新的先進 AI 芯片，接下來是 Blackwell Ultra（2025）、Vera Rubin（2026）和 Vera Rubin Ultra（2027）。後兩者將基於全新的 Vera 處理器。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Nvidia's CUDA software platform has tied everything together. CUDA is what developers use to maximize the compute potential of their Nvidia hardware. It's effectively the hook that keeps buyers loyal to Nvidia's ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，Nvidia 的 CUDA 軟件平台將一切聯繫在一起。CUDA 是開發者用來最大化其 Nvidia 硬件計算潛力的工具。它實際上是保持買家忠誠於 Nvidia 生態系統的關鍵。</p>
</div><p>For Wall Street and investors, arguably nothing is of greater importance than Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter operating results on Aug. 27 (Nvidia's fiscal year ends in late January). While most analysts are counting on another blowout performance, there are no fewer than five reasons the party can end on Aug. 27 for the face of the AI revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於華爾街和投資者來説，毫無疑問，Nvidia 在 8 月 27 日的財務第二季度運營結果是最重要的（Nvidia 的財年在 1 月底結束）。雖然大多數分析師預計將再次出現爆炸性表現，但在 8 月 27 日，AI 革命的面孔可能會面臨不少於五個原因的挑戰。</p>
</div><h2>1. Internal competition begins pressuring margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 內部競爭開始對利潤率施加壓力</h2>
</div><p>For most investors, external competition is viewed as the greatest threat to Nvidia's AI-GPU dominance. Direct rivals include the likes of <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> and China-based Huawei, among others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於大多數投資者來説，外部競爭被視為對 Nvidia AI-GPU 主導地位的最大威脅。直接競爭對手包括 <strong>超微半導體</strong> 和中國的華為等。</p>
</div><p>Though the number of GPUs becoming available from external competitors is climbing with each passing quarter, this isn't the threat investors should be worried about. The biggest risk to Nvidia comes from within.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管來自外部競爭對手的 GPU 數量隨着每個季度的推移而增加，但這並不是投資者應該擔心的威脅。對 Nvidia 來説，最大的風險來自內部。</p>
</div><p>Many of Nvidia's largest customers by net sales (think members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34;) are developing AI-GPUs to deploy in their data centers. While these chips aren't going to compete with Nvidia's hardware on the open market, they're dangerous to Nvidia's growth for a number of reasons:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的一些最大客户（想想 “七大奇蹟” 成員）正在開發 AI-GPU 以部署在他們的數據中心。雖然這些芯片不會在公開市場上與 Nvidia 的硬件競爭，但它們對 Nvidia 的增長構成了多種危險：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>They're reducing AI-GPU scarcity, which Nvidia has used to pump up its pricing power and boost its gross margin.</li>
<li>They're notably cheaper than Nvidia's hardware, which can provide additional downside pressure on Nvidia's pricing power.</li>
<li>Unlike Nvidia's GPUs, they aren't going to be backlogged. This can slow upgrade cycles, which would weaken Nvidia's future growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>它們減少了 AI-GPU 的稀缺性，而 Nvidia 正是利用這一點來提升其定價能力並提高其毛利率。</li>
<li>它們明顯比 Nvidia 的硬件便宜，這可能對 Nvidia 的定價能力施加額外的下行壓力。</li>
<li>與 Nvidia 的 GPU 不同，它們不會出現積壓。這可能會減緩升級週期，從而削弱 Nvidia 未來的增長預測。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>2. President Trump's reciprocal tariffs introduce forecast uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 特朗普總統的互惠關税引入預測不確定性</h2>
</div><p>A second headwind that can trip up the face of the AI revolution is President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個可能阻礙 AI 革命面孔的逆風是特朗普總統的關税和貿易政策。</p>
</div><p>On April 2, the president unveiled a 10% global tariff, along with higher &#34;reciprocal tariffs&#34; on dozens of countries deemed to have adverse trade imbalances with America. These reciprocal tariff rates were paused for 90 days on April 9, and extended once more on July 7 via executive order to August 1. One week from today, they go into effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 2 日，總統公佈了 10% 的全球關税，以及對被認為與美國存在不利貿易失衡的數十個國家的更高 “互惠關税”。這些互惠關税率在 4 月 9 日暫停 90 天，並於 7 月 7 日通過行政命令再次延長至 8 月 1 日。從今天起一週後，它們將生效。</p>
</div><p>What's so worrisome about Trump's tariff and trade policy is that it introduces uncertainty into a situation (for Nvidia) where perfection and transparency have been priced in. If trade deals aren't reached, retaliatory tariffs, supply chain hiccups, and higher prices that adversely impact margins, can all come into play.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的關税和貿易政策令人擔憂之處在於，它為 Nvidia 的情況引入了不確定性，而在此之前，完美和透明度已被定價。如果貿易協議未達成，報復性關税、供應鏈問題和不利影響利潤率的更高價格都可能出現。</p>
</div><p>The point being that Nvidia's growth forecast is anything but certain, as of this writing on July 22.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，截至 7 月 22 日，Nvidia 的增長預測遠非確定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjYyNTMvbnZpZGlhLWNlby1qZW5zZW4taHVhbmctZGVsaXZlcnMtZ3RjLWtleW5vdGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F826253%2Fnvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-delivers-gtc-keynote.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Jensen Huang delivering his keynote address at GTC. Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃仁勳在 GTC 上發表主題演講。圖片來源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>3. Jensen Huang's innovation cycle begins to ruffle feathers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 黃仁勳的創新週期開始引發不滿</h2>
</div><p>Something else that can ruffle Wall Street's feathers and knock Nvidia off of its pedestal is the company's innovation cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個可能讓華爾街不滿並使 Nvidia 失去其地位的因素是公司的創新週期。</p>
</div><p>Typically, aggressive spending to develop new technology is rewarded handsomely by investors. But there's a fine line between technological advancements and maintaining a 70%-plus gross margin by charging a triple-digit premium to external competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，積極投資開發新技術會受到投資者的豐厚回報。但在技術進步和通過對外部競爭對手收取三位數溢價來維持 70% 以上的毛利率之間存在着微妙的平衡。</p>
</div><p>For example, Huang's goal of bringing a new AI-GPU to market annually runs the risk of rapidly depreciating the value of prior-generation chips. If the value of Hopper GPUs tanks, customers that made the largest purchases of Hopper GPUs, along with data centers leasing out compute capacity, are going to be less likely to upgrade to new chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，黃仁勳每年推出一款新的 AI-GPU 的目標存在迅速貶值前一代芯片價值的風險。如果 Hopper GPU 的價值暴跌，購買了大量 Hopper GPU 的客户以及租賃計算能力的數據中心將不太可能升級到新芯片。</p>
</div><p>The other possibility is that as Nvidia introduces faster and higher-priced GPUs, businesses will simply opt for prior-generation chips at a discounted price. We may begin to see this reflected in the form of a weaker gross margin forecast from the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一種可能性是，隨着 Nvidia 推出更快和更高價的 GPU，企業可能會選擇以折扣價購買前一代芯片。我們可能會開始看到這反映在公司更弱的毛利率預測中。</p>
</div><h2>4. The Trump administration flip-flops on export restrictions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 特朗普政府在出口限制上反覆無常</h2>
</div><p>Since October 2022, the Joe Biden and Donald Trump administrations have restricted exports of high-powered AI chips and related equipment to China. Even though Nvidia had specifically developed toned-down versions of its highest-powered AI chips, both administrations had nixed its ability to export to the world's No. 2 economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 10 月以來，喬·拜登和唐納德·特朗普政府已限制向中國出口高性能 AI 芯片及相關設備。儘管 Nvidia 專門開發了其最高性能 AI 芯片的簡化版本，但兩屆政府均已取消其向世界第二大經濟體出口的能力。</p>
</div><p>The silver lining is that the Trump administration recently (less than two weeks ago) reversed its export ban, which allows Nvidia to sell its less-advanced H20 chip to China. While this news sent Nvidia's stock soaring, it makes the dangerous assumption that the Trump administration won't flip-flop on this decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，特朗普政府最近（不到兩週前）撤銷了出口禁令，這使得英偉達可以向中國銷售其較不先進的 H20 芯片。雖然這一消息使英偉達的股票飆升，但這也做出了一個危險的假設，即特朗普政府不會對這一決定反覆無常。</p>
</div><p>Though U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has suggested that allowing AI chip sales to China will keep companies reliant on American technology, President Trump and his administration have altered tariff and trade policy more times than can be counted over the last six months. No trade deal has been reached with China, and there remains the possibility that Nvidia's technology is used as a bargaining chip for Trump to get what he wants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美國商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克建議允許向中國銷售 AI 芯片將使公司依賴美國技術，但特朗普及其政府在過去六個月中對關税和貿易政策的改變次數不計其數。與中國尚未達成任何貿易協議，英偉達的技術仍有可能被用作特朗普獲取其所需的籌碼。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7814310564931bdfdd023653c9de17d1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7814310564931bdfdd023653c9de17d1.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS Ratio= price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。PS 比率=市銷率。</p>
</div><h2>5. History finally catches up with Nvidia's premium valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 歷史終於追上英偉達的高估值</h2>
</div><p>The fifth and final reason the party can end for Nvidia on Aug. 27 is if history finally catches up to its outsized valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達在 8 月 27 日的派對可能結束的第五個也是最後一個原因是歷史終於追上了其過高的估值。</p>
</div><p>I'm a firm believer that companies with sustainable moats and monopoly like market share deserve a premium valuation... <em>to a point</em>. Last summer, Nvidia stock tipped the scales at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 42, which is more or less in-line with the peak trailing-12-month (TTM) P/S ratios of Wall Street's leading businesses prior to the dot-com bubble bursting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我堅信，擁有可持續護城河和壟斷市場份額的公司應當獲得高估值……<em>在一定程度上</em>。去年夏天，英偉達的股票市銷率（P/S）達到了 42，這與互聯網泡沫破裂前華爾街領先企業的峯值過去 12 個月（TTM）市銷率大致相符。</p>
</div><p>Despite Nvidia's sales skyrocketing over the last two years, its P/S ratio on a TTM basis is still 28, as of July 22. No market-leading company has ever been able to sustain such a high premium over an extended period. What this suggests is that Nvidia has zero margin for error and its stock will be punished for the slightest miss or perceived uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管英偉達在過去兩年中銷售額激增，但截至 7 月 22 日，其 TTM 市銷率仍為 28。沒有任何市場領先公司能夠在較長時間內維持如此高的溢價。這表明英偉達幾乎沒有犯錯的餘地，其股票將因最輕微的失誤或感知的不確定性而受到懲罰。</p>
</div>

5 Reasons the Party Can End for Nvidia On Aug. 27

- 人工智能的崛起為全球經濟帶來 15.7 萬億美元的潛在增長。  
- Nvidia 成為 AI 領域的領軍企業，市值超過 4 萬億美元。  
- 內部競爭、關税政策和高估值等因素可能影響 Nvidia 的未來增長。

8 月 27 日英偉達的盛宴可能結束的五個原因