<p>華爾街曾認為掙扎中的房地產電子商務公司 <strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN 4.34%) 已經無望。然而，股票在不到一個月的時間裏突然飆升超過 500%。</p>
<p>發生了什麼？一位對沖基金經理最近通過社交媒體宣佈對該股票的投資，並設定了 82 美元的目標價，這引發了對這家在低迷住房市場中掙扎的公司的興趣。</p>
<p>但追逐這種勢頭是否明智，還是應該選擇一個經過驗證的電子商務贏家 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -0.33%) 呢？</p>
<p>讓我們仔細看看 Opendoor 的前景，並確定這兩隻熱門成長股中哪一隻現在更值得購買。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxMjEvaG9tZS1zb2xkLXJlYWwtZXN0YXRlLWZvci1zYWxlLWhhcHB5LWZhbWlseS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxMjEvaG9tZS1zb2xkLXJlYWwtZXN0YXRlLWZvci1zYWxlLWhhcHB5LWZhbWlseS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Opendoor Technologies 是否準備好復甦？</h2>
<p>Opendoor Technologies 旨在成為住房市場的亞馬遜，通過 iBuying 這一過程，公司通過在線市場購買和轉售房屋。該公司於 2020 年底通過特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併上市，正值 0% 利率時期，最終導致高通脹並促使美聯儲大幅加息。</p>
<p>隨之而來的抵押貸款利率飆升（加上已經較高的房價）使住房市場急劇放緩，給 Opendoor 帶來了巨大的問題，該公司在出售房屋時遭受了重大損失。自那時以來，Opendoor 的股票持續下跌。</p>
<p>對沖基金經理 Eric Jackson 在他的 X 帖子中詳細説明，他認為公司的削減成本、與代理商合作的轉變以及缺乏直接競爭對手為未來幾年提供了顯著的上行空間，並將其與 <strong>Carvana</strong> 的顯著逆轉進行了比較。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在過去一個月裏，我在談論 $BTQQF $IREN 和 $CIFR 時，X 的印象激增，因為每個人都在尋找下一個 $CVNA。</p>
<p>我們認為我們剛剛找到了另一個。@EMJCapital 已經在 $OPEN 上建立了頭寸——我們相信它在未來幾年可能會成為 100 倍股....</p>
<p>-- Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) 2025 年 7 月 14 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Eric Jackson 承認與 Opendoor 股票相關的風險，但為一家公司的高目標價引發了投資者對該股票的興趣，使其飆升。</p>
<h2>然而，亞馬遜提供了更大的確定性，儘管它可能不再是 100 倍股</h2>
<p>亞馬遜是全球最知名的公司之一，是一個更安全的股票投資。這一點不需要火箭科學家來判斷。但亞馬遜龐大的 2.4 萬億美元市值也意味着它的上行潛力遠不及 Opendoor。</p>
<p>也就是説，該公司仍然有增長空間。電子商務在美國的零售總支出中佔比不到五分之一，而亞馬遜的盈利雲業務——亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）預計將在未來十年及更長時間內顯著增長，因為人工智能（AI）推動了雲使用的增加。</p>
<p>分析師預計亞馬遜在未來三到五年內的年均收益增長將達到 21%。假設股票的估值保持不變，這一增長將在不到四年的時間內使股票價格翻倍。這不是 100 倍股，但大多數投資者可能會樂於接受這樣的回報。</p>
<h2>有時候，手中的鳥勝過林中的百鳥</h2>
<p>比較兩隻截然不同的電子商務股票歸結為這一點：亞馬遜在未來三到五年內翻倍的概率遠大於 Opendoor 增長 100 倍的概率。</p>
<p>Opendoor 的核心 iBuying 業務正在穩步拖累公司，持續消耗公司的賬面價值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/41fb27ca91ea3c7d2e532640ecbecdf2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/41fb27ca91ea3c7d2e532640ecbecdf2.png"/></p>
<p>OPEN 有形賬面價值（季度）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>iBuying 過程是一種低利潤的商業模式，在未售出的房屋停留在資產負債表上時佔用了大量資本。</p>
<p>Opendoor 並沒有足夠快地購買和轉售庫存，也沒有通過足夠的高利潤附加服務來完善其 iBuying 模型，使公司在這一點上可持續。在一個受到可負擔性問題困擾的低迷住房市場中，這可能仍然是一場艱苦的鬥爭。</p>
<p>最初，房地產的亞馬遜式電子商務體驗聽起來不錯，但並沒有轉化為商業成功。在這裏沒有任何變化之前，Opendoor 面臨着巨大的風險，使得以高於其賬面價值的價格購買該股票變得難以合理化。</p>
<p>這就像買彩票。某人，某處，可能會贏，但這不是賺錢的好方法。</p>
<p>我不知道 Opendoor 可能會漲到多高。市場已經變得相當狂熱，這對投機行為是個好兆頭。Opendoor 將於 8 月 5 日公佈財報。該公司需要提供穩健的，或至少是改善的商業基本面；否則，股票可能會迅速反轉。</p>
<p>我所知道的是，亞馬遜是更優秀的企業，現在更值得購買的成長股。根本沒有可比性。</p>

亞馬遜

OPEN

亞馬遜每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>這篇文章比較了兩隻電子商務股票：Opendoor Technologies 和亞馬遜。儘管 Opendoor 在房地產市場面臨困難，但在一位對沖基金經理設定了高價目標後，其股票飆升超過 500%。分析師指出，儘管 Opendoor 具有潛力，但其 iBuying 模式面臨重大風險。相比之下，亞馬遜憑藉穩定的增長前景和強大的市場地位，被認為是更安全的投資。文章最後得出結論，考慮到亞馬遜相比於 Opendoor 的投機性質，其更可靠的前景使得亞馬遜成為更優的增長選擇</p>

<p>Wall Street thought struggling real estate e-commerce company <strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN 4.34%) was down and out. Suddenly, the stock has surged over 500% in less than a month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街曾認為掙扎中的房地產電子商務公司 <strong>Opendoor Technologies</strong>(OPEN 4.34%) 已經無望。然而，股票在不到一個月的時間裏突然飆升超過 500%。</p>
</div><p>What's going on? A hedge fund manager recently announced an investment in the stock via social media, setting an $82 price target for shares that ignited interest in a company that has struggled in a slow housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>發生了什麼？一位對沖基金經理最近通過社交媒體宣佈對該股票的投資，並設定了 82 美元的目標價，這引發了對這家在低迷住房市場中掙扎的公司的興趣。</p>
</div><p>But is it wiser to chase the momentum, or to look to a proven e-commerce winner in <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.33%) instead?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但追逐這種勢頭是否明智，還是應該選擇一個經過驗證的電子商務贏家 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -0.33%) 呢？</p>
</div><p>Let's take a closer look at Opendoor's prospects and determine which of these two hot growth stocks is the better buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們仔細看看 Opendoor 的前景，並確定這兩隻熱門成長股中哪一隻現在更值得購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjUxMjEvaG9tZS1zb2xkLXJlYWwtZXN0YXRlLWZvci1zYWxlLWhhcHB5LWZhbWlseS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F825121%2Fhome-sold-real-estate-for-sale-happy-family.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Opendoor Technologies poised for a comeback?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Opendoor Technologies 是否準備好復甦？</h2>
</div><p>Opendoor Technologies aimed to become the housing market's version of Amazon with iBuying, a process by which a company buys and resells homes through an online marketplace. The company went public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger in late 2020, amid a period of 0% interest rates that ultimately led to high inflation and prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor Technologies 旨在成為住房市場的亞馬遜，通過 iBuying 這一過程，公司通過在線市場購買和轉售房屋。該公司於 2020 年底通過特殊目的收購公司（SPAC）合併上市，正值 0% 利率時期，最終導致高通脹並促使美聯儲大幅加息。</p>
</div><p>The resulting spike in mortgage rates (plus already higher home prices) slammed the brakes on the housing market, creating tremendous problems for Opendoor, which took significant losses on homes it struggled to sell for a profit. Opendoor's stock has cratered since then as losses continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨之而來的抵押貸款利率飆升（加上已經較高的房價）使住房市場急劇放緩，給 Opendoor 帶來了巨大的問題，該公司在出售房屋時遭受了重大損失。自那時以來，Opendoor 的股票持續下跌。</p>
</div><p>Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson elaborated in his post on X that he believes the company's cost-cutting, pivot to partnering with agents, and lack of direct competitors offer a path to significant upside over the coming years, comparing it to the remarkable turnaround that <strong>Carvana</strong> achieved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對沖基金經理 Eric Jackson 在他的 X 帖子中詳細説明，他認為公司的削減成本、與代理商合作的轉變以及缺乏直接競爭對手為未來幾年提供了顯著的上行空間，並將其與 <strong>Carvana</strong> 的顯著逆轉進行了比較。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Over the last month, my X impressions have exploded talking about $BTQQF $IREN and $CIFR because everyone is looking for the next $CVNA.</p>
<p>We think we just found another.@EMJCapital has taken a position in $OPEN -- and we believe it could be a 100-bagger over the next few years....</p>
<p>-- Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) July 14, 2025</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在過去一個月裏，我在談論 $BTQQF $IREN 和 $CIFR 時，X 的印象激增，因為每個人都在尋找下一個 $CVNA。</p>
<p>我們認為我們剛剛找到了另一個。@EMJCapital 已經在 $OPEN 上建立了頭寸——我們相信它在未來幾年可能會成為 100 倍股....</p>
<p>-- Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) 2025 年 7 月 14 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Eric Jackson acknowledges the risks associated with Opendoor stock, but setting such a high target for a company has spiked investor interest in the stock, sending it soaring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Eric Jackson 承認與 Opendoor 股票相關的風險，但為一家公司的高目標價引發了投資者對該股票的興趣，使其飆升。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon offers far more certainty, though it's probably not a 100-bagger anymore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>然而，亞馬遜提供了更大的確定性，儘管它可能不再是 100 倍股</h2>
</div><p>Amazon, one of the world's most prominent companies, is a safer stock to own. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. But Amazon's massive $2.4 trillion market capitalization also means it has nowhere near the upside potential Opendoor does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜是全球最知名的公司之一，是一個更安全的股票投資。這一點不需要火箭科學家來判斷。但亞馬遜龐大的 2.4 萬億美元市值也意味着它的上行潛力遠不及 Opendoor。</p>
</div><p>That said, the company still has room for growth. E-commerce accounts for less than a fifth of total retail spending in the United States, and Amazon's lucrative cloud unit, Amazon Web Services (AWS), is poised to grow significantly over the coming decade and beyond as artificial intelligence (AI) drives increased cloud usage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，該公司仍然有增長空間。電子商務在美國的零售總支出中佔比不到五分之一，而亞馬遜的盈利雲業務——亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）預計將在未來十年及更長時間內顯著增長，因為人工智能（AI）推動了雲使用的增加。</p>
</div><p>Analysts estimate Amazon will grow earnings by an average of 21% annually over the next three to five years. Assuming the stock's valuation remains the same, that growth would double the stock price in just under four years. That's no 100-bagger, but most investors would probably take those returns with a smile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預計亞馬遜在未來三到五年內的年均收益增長將達到 21%。假設股票的估值保持不變，這一增長將在不到四年的時間內使股票價格翻倍。這不是 100 倍股，但大多數投資者可能會樂於接受這樣的回報。</p>
</div><h2>Sometimes, a bird in the hand is worth 100 in the bush</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>有時候，手中的鳥勝過林中的百鳥</h2>
</div><p>Comparing two very different e-commerce stocks boils down to this: The probability that Amazon doubles in value over the next three to five years is far greater than the probability that Opendoor increases by 100 times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比較兩隻截然不同的電子商務股票歸結為這一點：亞馬遜在未來三到五年內翻倍的概率遠大於 Opendoor 增長 100 倍的概率。</p>
</div><p>Opendoor's core iBuying business is steadily dragging the company down, steadily depleting the company's book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 的核心 iBuying 業務正在穩步拖累公司，持續消耗公司的賬面價值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/41fb27ca91ea3c7d2e532640ecbecdf2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/41fb27ca91ea3c7d2e532640ecbecdf2.png"/></p>
<p>OPEN Tangible Book Value (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OPEN 有形賬面價值（季度）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The iBuying process is a low-margin business model that ties up a significant amount of capital while unsold houses sit on the balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iBuying 過程是一種低利潤的商業模式，在未售出的房屋停留在資產負債表上時佔用了大量資本。</p>
</div><p>Opendoor isn't buying and reselling inventory fast enough, or fleshing out its iBuying model with enough higher-margin add-on services to make the company sustainable to this point. It could remain an uphill battle in a slow housing market plagued by affordability issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Opendoor 並沒有足夠快地購買和轉售庫存，也沒有通過足夠的高利潤附加服務來完善其 iBuying 模型，使公司在這一點上可持續。在一個受到可負擔性問題困擾的低迷住房市場中，這可能仍然是一場艱苦的鬥爭。</p>
</div><p>The idea of an Amazon-like e-commerce experience for real estate sounds good at first, but it hasn't translated to business success. Until something changes here, Opendoor faces substantial risks that make it hard to justify buying the stock at a premium to its book value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，房地產的亞馬遜式電子商務體驗聽起來不錯，但並沒有轉化為商業成功。在這裏沒有任何變化之前，Opendoor 面臨着巨大的風險，使得以高於其賬面價值的價格購買該股票變得難以合理化。</p>
</div><p>It's like playing the lottery. Someone, somewhere, may win, but it's a terrible way to try and make money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就像買彩票。某人，某處，可能會贏，但這不是賺錢的好方法。</p>
</div><p>I don't know how high Opendoor may go. The market has become quite euphoric, which bodes well for speculative behavior. Opendoor announces earnings on Aug. 5. The company needs to deliver solid, or at least improving, business fundamentals; otherwise, the stock could easily reverse course rather quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不知道 Opendoor 可能會漲到多高。市場已經變得相當狂熱，這對投機行為是個好兆頭。Opendoor 將於 8 月 5 日公佈財報。該公司需要提供穩健的，或至少是改善的商業基本面；否則，股票可能會迅速反轉。</p>
</div><p>What I do know is that Amazon is the superior business and the better growth stock to buy right now. It's not even close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我所知道的是，亞馬遜是更優秀的企業，現在更值得購買的成長股。根本沒有可比性。</p>
</div>

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Amazon vs. Opendoor Technologies

- Opendoor Technologies 股票在一個月內上漲超過 500%。  
- 對沖基金經理的投資引發了市場關注，設定了 82 美元的目標價。  
- 相比之下，亞馬遜提供更大的穩定性和增長潛力。  

目前最值得購買的股票：亞馬遜與 Opendoor Technologies