<p>在週一的交易結束時，<strong>亞馬遜公司 NASDAQ: AMZN</strong> 的股價剛剛低於 233 美元，目前的交易價格距離去年二月的歷史高點僅有 10 美元。自四月以來，股價上漲了 45%，這一表現可謂非同尋常，圖表上呈現出清晰、持續的上漲趨勢，伴隨着更高的高點和更高的低點。</p><p>但隨着亞馬遜備受期待的第二季度財報將在週四公佈，投資者現在需要問自己：這波上漲是否過於完美？市場情緒是否過熱？如果財報強勁但不出色，是否會引發回調？讓我們深入分析一下。</p><h2 id="a889wb9iu">看漲論點：清晰的趨勢，強勁的支撐</h2><p>首先，我們必須承認的是，自四月以來的圖表是完美無瑕的。自該月初觸底以來，亞馬遜幾乎沒有回頭。動能保持強勁，幾乎沒有重大回調，牛市投資者積極捍衞並在每次下跌中買入。</p><p>該股票的相對強弱指數（RSI）為 68，温和，但遠未超買。從技術上講，當前的形勢無疑是看漲的。</p><p>再加上分析師們的持續支持。本週，瑞銀和摩根士丹利分別 <strong>重申了他們的買入和超配評級</strong>，並將目標價提升至高達 271 美元。</p><p>如果亞馬遜在接下來的幾周和幾個月內達到這一目標，將遠超二月的歷史高點，進入藍天區域。</p><p>關鍵是，亞馬遜的基本面繼續提供支持。對週四財報的共識預期是，收入同比增長 9.4%，每股收益的增長預計接近 3.6%。</p><p>毫不奇怪，該公司的 AWS 部門預計將貢獻相當可觀的收入，華爾街的許多人預測其收入將在下半年及以後加速增長。</p><h2 id="q31n9lv">看跌論點：預期過高</h2><p>然而，這裏有一個反駁的觀點：當一隻股票如此強勁上漲這麼長時間時，設定了一個非常高的標準。儘管分析師們預計上漲將繼續，但亞馬遜可能需要提供的不僅僅是強勁的數字，以證明近期的上漲是合理的。</p><p>請記住，該股票的市盈率（P/E）現在為 38，相較於上個季度略顯高企，與 <strong>字母表公司 NASDAQ: GOOGL</strong> 的市盈率接近 20 相比，顯得更加昂貴。</p><p>這樣的估值要求明確的利潤擴張、加速的收入增長和/或引人注目的人工智能敍事。任何低於這一標準的表現都可能讓投資者失望，並促使他們急於獲利了結。</p><p>一些裂痕已經開始顯現；預計每股收益 3.6% 的增長感覺有些乏善可陳。該公司的自由現金流在最近幾個季度也在下降，進一步的跡象可能會對關注資本配置的長期投資者構成警示，尤其是在人工智能基礎設施成本飆升和地緣政治風險加大的背景下。</p><h2 id="tyxp2bqbr">現在是謹慎還是自信的時候？</h2><p>如果你已經持有該股，繼續持有到財報發佈是有充分理由的。如上所述，趨勢依然存在，分析師羣體支持該股，亞馬遜顯示出全面發力的跡象。</p><p>但如果你打算建立新頭寸，可能需要保持一些謹慎；僅僅一個疲軟的數據點或保守的評論就可能使股價回落。而且問題在於：由於亞馬遜的上漲幾乎沒有回調，除非回到 200 美元左右，否則沒有明確的支撐線，這很危險。</p><p>然而，亞馬遜仍然是全球最具主導地位的企業之一，本週的財報將是再次證明這一點的機會。即使在財報發佈後出現回調，請記住，調整是 <strong>長期上漲趨勢</strong> 中健康且必要的一部分，這也是投資者和華爾街今天看待亞馬遜的方式。</p>

亞馬遜

亞馬遜每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亞馬遜的股票自四月以來上漲了 45%，接近歷史最高點，預計將在第二季度財報發佈前達到這一水平。分析師們依然看好，目標價高達 271 美元，預計收入增長將支持這一目標。然而，高期望和 38 的市盈率引發了擔憂，這可能需要出色的業績來證明此次上漲的合理性。投資者被建議保持謹慎，因為任何令人失望的數據都可能導致獲利回吐。儘管可能出現回調，亞馬遜在市場上的主導地位依然強勁，使得即將發佈的財報對其未來表現至關重要</p>

<p>Having closed out Monday's session just under $233, shares of tech giant <strong>Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN</strong> are now trading within just $10 of their all-time high from last February. The 45% rally since April has been nothing short of extraordinary, a clean, uninterrupted move upward with higher highs and higher lows dominating the chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週一的交易結束時，<strong>亞馬遜公司 NASDAQ: AMZN</strong> 的股價剛剛低於 233 美元，目前的交易價格距離去年二月的歷史高點僅有 10 美元。自四月以來，股價上漲了 45%，這一表現可謂非同尋常，圖表上呈現出清晰、持續的上漲趨勢，伴隨着更高的高點和更高的低點。</p>
</div><p>But with Amazon's much-anticipated Q2 earnings due on Thursday, investors now need to ask themselves: has the rally been too perfect? Is sentiment running too hot? Could a strong but not exceptional report trigger a pullback? Let's jump in and take a closer look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着亞馬遜備受期待的第二季度財報將在週四公佈，投資者現在需要問自己：這波上漲是否過於完美？市場情緒是否過熱？如果財報強勁但不出色，是否會引發回調？讓我們深入分析一下。</p>
</div><h2>The Bull Case: Clean Trend, Strong Support</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看漲論點：清晰的趨勢，強勁的支撐</h2>
</div><p>Let's start with what's undeniable. The chart, since April, is immaculate. Since bottoming out at the start of that month, Amazon has barely looked back. Momentum has stayed strong, with effectively no major pullbacks, and the bulls have aggressively defended and bought into every dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，我們必須承認的是，自四月以來的圖表是完美無瑕的。自該月初觸底以來，亞馬遜幾乎沒有回頭。動能保持強勁，幾乎沒有重大回調，牛市投資者積極捍衞並在每次下跌中買入。</p>
</div><p>The stock's relative strength index (RSI) is 68, warm, but far from overbought. Technically, the setup remains undoubtedly bullish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該股票的相對強弱指數（RSI）為 68，温和，但遠未超買。從技術上講，當前的形勢無疑是看漲的。</p>
</div><p>Add to that the unrelenting analyst support. Already this week, the likes of UBS and Morgan Stanley <strong>reiterated their Buy and Overweight ratings</strong>, respectively, with their boosted price targets now ranging as high as $271.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上分析師們的持續支持。本週，瑞銀和摩根士丹利分別 <strong>重申了他們的買入和超配評級</strong>，並將目標價提升至高達 271 美元。</p>
</div><p>If Amazon were to hit this in the coming weeks and months, it'd be well above February's all-time high and far into blue sky territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果亞馬遜在接下來的幾周和幾個月內達到這一目標，將遠超二月的歷史高點，進入藍天區域。</p>
</div><p>Crucially, Amazon's fundamentals continue to offer support. Consensus estimates for Thursday's report call for a 9.4% year-over-year (YOY) increase in revenue, with earnings per share growth expected to be closer to 3.6% YOY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵是，亞馬遜的基本面繼續提供支持。對週四財報的共識預期是，收入同比增長 9.4%，每股收益的增長預計接近 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>Unsurprisingly, the company's AWS unit is expected to contribute quite a bit, with many on Wall Street forecasting its revenue will accelerate into the year's second half and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，該公司的 AWS 部門預計將貢獻相當可觀的收入，華爾街的許多人預測其收入將在下半年及以後加速增長。</p>
</div><h2>The Bear Case: Expectations Are Sky-High</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看跌論點：預期過高</h2>
</div><p>However, here's the counter-argument: when a stock rallies this hard for this long, it sets a very high bar. And even though analysts are calling for the rally to continue, Amazon may need to deliver more than just strong numbers to justify the recent move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這裏有一個反駁的觀點：當一隻股票如此強勁上漲這麼長時間時，設定了一個非常高的標準。儘管分析師們預計上漲將繼續，但亞馬遜可能需要提供的不僅僅是強勁的數字，以證明近期的上漲是合理的。</p>
</div><p>Keep in mind that the stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is now at 38, a little frothier compared to last quarter and certainly richer when stacked against peers like <strong>Alphabet Inc NASDAQ: GOOGL</strong>, which has a P/E ratio closer to 20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請記住，該股票的市盈率（P/E）現在為 38，相較於上個季度略顯高企，與 <strong>字母表公司 NASDAQ: GOOGL</strong> 的市盈率接近 20 相比，顯得更加昂貴。</p>
</div><p>That kind of valuation demands clear margin expansion, accelerating revenue growth, and/or a blowout AI narrative. Anything less could easily disappoint investors and send them rushing to take profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這樣的估值要求明確的利潤擴張、加速的收入增長和/或引人注目的人工智能敍事。任何低於這一標準的表現都可能讓投資者失望，並促使他們急於獲利了結。</p>
</div><p>Some cracks are already being watched; the forecasted 3.6% growth in EPS feels a tad underwhelming. The company's free cash flow has also been declining in recent quarters, and further signs of this trend could be a red flag for long-term investors concerned about capital allocation in the face of surging AI infrastructure costs and geopolitical risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些裂痕已經開始顯現；預計每股收益 3.6% 的增長感覺有些乏善可陳。該公司的自由現金流在最近幾個季度也在下降，進一步的跡象可能會對關注資本配置的長期投資者構成警示，尤其是在人工智能基礎設施成本飆升和地緣政治風險加大的背景下。</p>
</div><h2>Time to Be Cautious or Confident?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是謹慎還是自信的時候？</h2>
</div><p>If you're already long, there's a strong case for holding through earnings. As noted above, the trend is intact, the analyst community is behind the stock, and Amazon is showing signs of firing on all cylinders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你已經持有該股，繼續持有到財報發佈是有充分理由的。如上所述，趨勢依然存在，分析師羣體支持該股，亞馬遜顯示出全面發力的跡象。</p>
</div><p>But if you're looking to initiate a new position, some caution might be warranted; just one soft datapoint or conservative comment could knock the stock back. And here's the rub: because Amazon's rally has had few to no pullbacks, there's no clear line of support unless you go back to around the $200 mark, and that's dangerous.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你打算建立新頭寸，可能需要保持一些謹慎；僅僅一個疲軟的數據點或保守的評論就可能使股價回落。而且問題在於：由於亞馬遜的上漲幾乎沒有回調，除非回到 200 美元左右，否則沒有明確的支撐線，這很危險。</p>
</div><p>However, Amazon remains one of the most dominant businesses in the world, and this week's earnings will be an opportunity to prove that once again. Even if there is a post-earnings pullback, remember, corrections are a healthy and necessary part of a <strong>longer-term uptrend</strong>, and that's ultimately how investors and Wall Street alike are looking at Amazon today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，亞馬遜仍然是全球最具主導地位的企業之一，本週的財報將是再次證明這一點的機會。即使在財報發佈後出現回調，請記住，調整是 <strong>長期上漲趨勢</strong> 中健康且必要的一部分，這也是投資者和華爾街今天看待亞馬遜的方式。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Amazon.com Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你現在應該投資 1,000 美元在亞馬遜嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Amazon.com, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考慮亞馬遜之前，你需要聽聽這個。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Amazon.com wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟蹤華爾街頂級評級和表現最佳的研究分析師及其推薦給客户的股票。MarketBeat 已經識別出五隻股票，頂級分析師正在悄悄地向客户推薦，現在就買入，以便在更廣泛的市場注意到之前……而亞馬遜並不在名單上。</p>
</div><p>While Amazon.com currently has a Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然亞馬遜目前在分析師中獲得了買入評級，但頂級分析師認為這五隻股票更值得投資。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看這五隻股票的詳細信息</p>
</div>

Amazon's Pre-Earnings Setup Is Almost Too Clean—Red Flag?

- 亞馬遜股價接近歷史高點，4 月以來上漲 45%。  
- Q2 財報即將發佈，市場對業績預期高。  
- 投資者需謹慎，若業績未達預期可能引發回調。

亞馬遜的財報發佈前的準備工作幾乎過於完美——這是一個危險信號嗎？