<p>幫助總統 <strong>唐納德·特朗普</strong> 施壓美聯儲的通脹平靜期已經結束，6 月份的數據表明關税最終影響了消費者價格——美聯儲主席 <strong>傑羅姆·鮑威爾</strong> 堅持立場是明智的。</p>
<p>美聯儲最密切關注的通脹指標——個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數，同比上漲至 2.6%，高於 5 月份的 2.3% 並超出預期的 2.5%。這是自 2 月份以來的最高年率。</p>
<p>剔除食品和能源的核心 PCE 保持在 2.8%，與上調後的 5 月份讀數持平，且高於 2.7% 的預測，突顯了潛在通脹的持續性。</p>
<p>按月計算，整體和核心通脹均上漲 0.3%，較上個月的 0.2% 有所加速。</p>
<p>這些連續的增長表明價格壓力的廣泛性，與今年早些時候施加的關税的滯後影響一致。</p>
<h3><strong>消費者支出依然強勁，勞動力市場沒有壓力跡象</strong></h3>
<p>儘管通脹加劇，但尚無需求減弱的證據。</p>
<p>個人支出環比增長 0.3%，高於 5 月份的持平讀數，儘管略低於 0.4% 的預期。</p>
<p>個人收入增長 0.3%，從 5 月份的 0.4% 下降中反彈，超出 0.2% 的預期，表明家庭財務狀況依然穩健。</p>
<p>截至 7 月 26 日當週，首次申請失業救濟人數為 218,000，基本與前一週持平，且好於預期的 224,000。持續申請失業救濟人數也意外下降至 194.6 萬，低於 196 萬的預測。</p>
<p>這些數據強化了鮑威爾的論點，即 “適度限制” 的政策立場仍然合適——儘管白宮施加了持續壓力，美聯儲沒有提前承諾在 9 月份降息是正確的。</p>
<p>目前，美聯儲有喘息的空間。但隨着下一輪就業和通脹數據的臨近，放鬆政策或維持現狀的理由將變得更加複雜。</p>
<p>在週四的 PCE 通脹報告超出預期後，市場現在僅將 9 月份降息的可能性評估為 39%——較美聯儲週三的決定前的 65% 大幅下降。</p>
<p>美國美元指數——由 <strong>Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF</strong> UUP 追蹤——迄今已連續五個交易日上漲。今天再漲將延續自 2023 年 8 月以來最長的連勝紀錄。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>鮑威爾對 9 月份降息按下剎車——特朗普引發金屬市場崩盤</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>照片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>幫助特朗普總統的通脹平靜期已經結束，6 月份的個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數同比上漲至 2.6%，超出預期。核心 PCE 保持在 2.8% 的穩定水平。儘管通脹上升，消費者支出仍增加了 0.3%，個人收入也上升了 0.3%。失業救濟申請保持穩定，支持美聯儲主席鮑威爾反對 9 月份降息的立場。市場目前預計降息的可能性為 39%，低於之前的 65%。美元指數連續五個交易日上漲，顯示出市場對通脹數據的反應</p>

<p>The inflation lull that helped President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> keep pressure on the Federal Reserve is over as June's data show the tariffs are finally hitting consumer prices—and Fed Chair <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> was wise to hold his ground.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幫助總統 <strong>唐納德·特朗普</strong> 施壓美聯儲的通脹平靜期已經結束，6 月份的數據表明關税最終影響了消費者價格——美聯儲主席 <strong>傑羅姆·鮑威爾</strong> 堅持立場是明智的。</p>
</div><p>The most closely watched inflation gauge by the central bank, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, jumped to 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in May and topping expectations of 2.5%. That's the highest annual rate since February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲最密切關注的通脹指標——個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數，同比上漲至 2.6%，高於 5 月份的 2.3% 並超出預期的 2.5%。這是自 2 月份以來的最高年率。</p>
</div><p>Core PCE, which strips out food and energy and directly informs the Fed's rate decisions, held firm at 2.8%, unchanged from the upwardly revised May reading and above forecasts of 2.7%, underscoring the persistence of underlying inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除食品和能源的核心 PCE 保持在 2.8%，與上調後的 5 月份讀數持平，且高於 2.7% 的預測，突顯了潛在通脹的持續性。</p>
</div><p>On a monthly basis, both headline and core inflation rose 0.3%, accelerating from 0.2% the prior month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按月計算，整體和核心通脹均上漲 0.3%，較上個月的 0.2% 有所加速。</p>
</div><p>These sequential increases suggest a broadening in price pressures, consistent with the delayed impact of tariffs imposed earlier this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些連續的增長表明價格壓力的廣泛性，與今年早些時候施加的關税的滯後影響一致。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Consumer Spending Still Strong, No Signs Of Stress From Labor Market</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>消費者支出依然強勁，勞動力市場沒有壓力跡象</strong></h3>
</div><p>Despite hotter inflation, there's no evidence yet of weakening demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管通脹加劇，但尚無需求減弱的證據。</p>
</div><p>Personal spending climbed 0.3% month-over-month, up from a flat reading in May, though slightly below the 0.4% forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>個人支出環比增長 0.3%，高於 5 月份的持平讀數，儘管略低於 0.4% 的預期。</p>
</div><p>Personal income increased 0.3%, bouncing back from a 0.4% drop in May and beating expectations of a 0.2% gain, indicating that households remain in solid financial shape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>個人收入增長 0.3%，從 5 月份的 0.4% 下降中反彈，超出 0.2% 的預期，表明家庭財務狀況依然穩健。</p>
</div><p>Weekly jobless claims came in at 218,000 for the week ending July 26, basically unchanged from the previous week and better than the 224,000 expected. Continuing claims also surprised to the downside at 1.946 million, below the forecast of 1.96 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 7 月 26 日當週，首次申請失業救濟人數為 218,000，基本與前一週持平，且好於預期的 224,000。持續申請失業救濟人數也意外下降至 194.6 萬，低於 196 萬的預測。</p>
</div><p>The data reinforces Powell's argument that a &#34;modestly restrictive&#34; policy stance remains appropriate—and that the Fed was right not to pre-commit to a rate cut in September, despite relentless pressure from the White House.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些數據強化了鮑威爾的論點，即 “適度限制” 的政策立場仍然合適——儘管白宮施加了持續壓力，美聯儲沒有提前承諾在 9 月份降息是正確的。</p>
</div><p>For now, the Federal Reserve has room to breathe. But as the next rounds of jobs and inflation data approach, the case for easing—or staying put—will only grow more complex.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，美聯儲有喘息的空間。但隨着下一輪就業和通脹數據的臨近，放鬆政策或維持現狀的理由將變得更加複雜。</p>
</div><p>Following Thursday's hotter-than-expected PCE inflation report, markets now assign just a 39% chance of a September rate cut—down sharply from 65% before the Fed's decision on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週四的 PCE 通脹報告超出預期後，市場現在僅將 9 月份降息的可能性評估為 39%——較美聯儲週三的決定前的 65% 大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the <strong>Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF</strong> UUP – has rallied for five straight sessions thus far. Another gain today would extend the longest winning streak since August 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國美元指數——由 <strong>Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF</strong> UUP 追蹤——迄今已連續五個交易日上漲。今天再漲將延續自 2023 年 8 月以來最長的連勝紀錄。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Powell Puts Breaks On September Rate Cut—And Trump Triggers A Metal Market Crash</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>鮑威爾對 9 月份降息按下剎車——特朗普引發金屬市場崩盤</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

特朗普的通脹蜜月期已經結束——鮑威爾的耐心終於得到了回報