<p>中國股市整體表現強勁，尤其是 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>(BABA -2.48%) 在今年開局火熱。到 2025 年 3 月中旬，該國電商先鋒的股價上漲了 75%。儘管近期整體市場反彈，但阿里巴巴的股價仍比寒冬時的高點低 19%。</p>
<p>回調的原因有一些合理的解釋，我會很快討論這些。這並不意味着現在不是購買阿里巴巴的好時機，彷彿明天就沒有一樣。讓我們深入探討一下我為何是阿里巴巴的股東，以及如果你還沒有加入我，為什麼我認為你可能想要考慮加入。</p>
<h2>1. 阿里巴巴的股票便宜</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴在最新一個季度出現了罕見的盈利失利，分析師們也在下調他們的利潤預期。這並不好，但這並不意味着現在的價值不具吸引力。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴的交易價格為調整後盈利的 16 倍。與美國的電商領軍企業相比，這個價格顯得非常划算。展望 4 月份開始的新財年，這個倍數降至不到 14 倍。為什麼不更低呢？如果我們展望下一個財年，阿里巴巴的前瞻性調整後盈利倍數僅為 11.5 倍。</p>
<p>這些低市盈率實際上是被高估的。阿里巴巴擁有近 600 億美元的現金和短期投資，幾乎是其長期債務的兩倍。阿里巴巴強勁的淨現金頭寸使其企業價值低於市值。如果以企業價值作為分子，明年的利潤倍數將降至 11 以下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2NzMvZ2V0dHljaGluZXNlZ2FtZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="369" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2NzMvZ2V0dHljaGluZXNlZ2FtZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2. 增長值得市場溢價</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴吸引人的基於盈利的估值令人驚訝的是，它如何克服了其旗艦電商平台之外的虧損。阿里巴巴並不害怕在短期內不會帶來回報的投資。它關注一些不盈利的業務，包括流媒體內容、國際業務、在競爭激烈的第三方食品配送應用中的不斷增長的存在，以及人工智能（AI），當然還有其他領域。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴並沒有把所有的雞蛋放在同一個籃子裏。其不斷發展的好處在於，收入年復一年持續增長。儘管業務放緩，但過去三個財年的單數字收入增長是在連續 10 年實現雙位數收入增長之後。分析師預計 2026 財年的收入增長將加速，明年將再次提速。</p>
<h2>3. 阿里巴巴認為其股票便宜</h2>
<p>一些投資者並不喜歡股票回購，但通常這是因為公司處於下滑狀態，缺乏增長想法。阿里巴巴並不符合這種衰退的特徵。它手頭有足夠的現金來支持其在新興業務中的長期投資。除了適度的分紅外，阿里巴巴在過去兩年中每個季度都回購股票。</p>
<p>回購並沒有抑制股價。過去一年，阿里巴巴的股票上漲了 53%。在過去兩年中減少了 9% 的流通股帶來了好處。這提高了每股收益，使股東擁有公司更大的一部分。</p>
<p>時間站在它這邊。8 月份，關税戰愈演愈烈，但阿里巴巴 85% 的業務是在中國境內進行的。這是一個相對避風港的投資，能夠抵禦貿易爭端帶來的波動。當然，其在美國銷售的 AliExpress 電商平台會受到影響。但在其本土市場，阿里巴巴依然是一股強大的力量。它擁有淘寶、天貓和快速增長的雲智能業務。儘管許多更大膽的投資仍在等待時機，但股價依然強勁。很容易理解為什麼阿里巴巴會繼續進行這些股票回購。你可能也想考慮跟隨這一做法。</p>

阿里巴巴-W

阿里巴巴

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

BABO

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>儘管近期出現回調，阿里巴巴的股票仍被視為一個有吸引力的買入機會，其市盈率與美國電子商務領軍企業相比處於較低水平。該公司擁有強勁的現金狀況，現金和短期投資接近 600 億美元。分析師預測，阿里巴巴在 2026 財年的收入增長將加速，並且該公司一直積極回購股票，在過去兩年中減少了 9% 的流通股。阿里巴巴 85% 的業務在中國，儘管面臨貿易緊張局勢，仍然保持韌性，使其成為一個有吸引力的投資機會</p>

<p>Chinese stocks in general and <strong>Alibaba</strong>(BABA -2.48%) in particular got off to scorching starts this year. Shares of the country's e-commerce pioneer were trading 75% higher in 2025 at its mid-March high. The general market has rallied in recent months, but Alibaba remains 19% below that wintry peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國股市整體表現強勁，尤其是 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>(BABA -2.48%) 在今年開局火熱。到 2025 年 3 月中旬，該國電商先鋒的股價上漲了 75%。儘管近期整體市場反彈，但阿里巴巴的股價仍比寒冬時的高點低 19%。</p>
</div><p>There are some good reasons for the pullback, and I'll tackle this shortly. It doesn't mean that it's not a good time to buy Alibaba like there's no tomorrow. Let's dive into a few of the reasons why I'm a shareholder of Alibaba, and why I think you might want to join me if you aren't there already.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回調的原因有一些合理的解釋，我會很快討論這些。這並不意味着現在不是購買阿里巴巴的好時機，彷彿明天就沒有一樣。讓我們深入探討一下我為何是阿里巴巴的股東，以及如果你還沒有加入我，為什麼我認為你可能想要考慮加入。</p>
</div><h2>1. Alibaba shares are cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 阿里巴巴的股票便宜</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba is coming off a rare earnings miss in its latest quarter, and analysts have been paring back their profit targets. This isn't a good look, but it doesn't mean that it isn't a compelling value right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴在最新一個季度出現了罕見的盈利失利，分析師們也在下調他們的利潤預期。這並不好，但這並不意味着現在的價值不具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Alibaba is trading for 16 times trailing adjusted earnings. Stack that up against stateside e-tail leaders, and the bargain is clear. Look out to the new fiscal year that started in April, and that multiple drops to less than 14. Why stop there? Alibaba is fetching a forward adjusted earnings multiple of just 11.5 if we look out to the next fiscal year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴的交易價格為調整後盈利的 16 倍。與美國的電商領軍企業相比，這個價格顯得非常划算。展望 4 月份開始的新財年，這個倍數降至不到 14 倍。為什麼不更低呢？如果我們展望下一個財年，阿里巴巴的前瞻性調整後盈利倍數僅為 11.5 倍。</p>
</div><p>These low P/E ratios are actually inflated. Alibaba has nearly $60 billion in cash and short-term investments, double its long-term debt. Alibaba's strong net-cash position translates into an enterprise value that is lower than its market cap. Next year's profit multiple drops below 11 if you're rolling with its enterprise value as the numerator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些低市盈率實際上是被高估的。阿里巴巴擁有近 600 億美元的現金和短期投資，幾乎是其長期債務的兩倍。阿里巴巴強勁的淨現金頭寸使其企業價值低於市值。如果以企業價值作為分子，明年的利潤倍數將降至 11 以下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjc2NzMvZ2V0dHljaGluZXNlZ2FtZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F827673%2Fgettychinesegamer.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>2. Growth deserves a market premium</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 增長值得市場溢價</h2>
</div><p>The surprising thing about Alibaba's attractive earnings-based valuation is how it overcomes losses outside of its flagship e-commerce platforms. Alibaba isn't afraid to place bets that don't pay off in the near term. It watches over some unprofitable businesses including streaming content, international operations, a growing presence in the cutthroat realm of third-party food delivery apps, and artificial intelligence (AI), of course.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴吸引人的基於盈利的估值令人驚訝的是，它如何克服了其旗艦電商平台之外的虧損。阿里巴巴並不害怕在短期內不會帶來回報的投資。它關注一些不盈利的業務，包括流媒體內容、國際業務、在競爭激烈的第三方食品配送應用中的不斷增長的存在，以及人工智能（AI），當然還有其他領域。</p>
</div><p>Alibaba doesn't keep all of its eggs in the same basket. The benefit of its perpetual evolution is that its top line keeps growing year after year. Business has slowed, but the last three fiscal years of single-digit revenue gains followed 10 consecutive years of double-digit top-line gains. Analysts see revenue growth accelerating in fiscal 2026, picking up the pace yet again next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴並沒有把所有的雞蛋放在同一個籃子裏。其不斷發展的好處在於，收入年復一年持續增長。儘管業務放緩，但過去三個財年的單數字收入增長是在連續 10 年實現雙位數收入增長之後。分析師預計 2026 財年的收入增長將加速，明年將再次提速。</p>
</div><h2>3. Alibaba thinks its stock is cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 阿里巴巴認為其股票便宜</h2>
</div><p>Some investors aren't fans of share buybacks, but that's usually when it's the handiwork of a slumping company that's fresh out of growth ideas. Alibaba doesn't fit that fading profile. It's just flush with more than enough cash to fund its long-term wagers in emerging businesses. Beyond its modest dividend, Alibaba has purchased shares every single quarter for at least the last two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投資者並不喜歡股票回購，但通常這是因為公司處於下滑狀態，缺乏增長想法。阿里巴巴並不符合這種衰退的特徵。它手頭有足夠的現金來支持其在新興業務中的長期投資。除了適度的分紅外，阿里巴巴在過去兩年中每個季度都回購股票。</p>
</div><p>The buybacks haven't held the shares back. Alibaba stock is up 53% over the past year. Reducing its outstanding shares by 9% over the past two years has its benefits. It improves earnings on a per-share basis. It gives a shareholder a slightly larger chunk of the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回購並沒有抑制股價。過去一年，阿里巴巴的股票上漲了 53%。在過去兩年中減少了 9% 的流通股帶來了好處。這提高了每股收益，使股東擁有公司更大的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Time is on its side. August finds the tariff war heating up, but 85% of Alibaba's business takes place within China itself. It's one of the more sheltered investments from the volatility behind the trade tussle. Sure, its U.S.-selling AliExpress e-commerce platform will take a hit. This is still a juggernaut on its home turf. It has Taobao, Tmall, and a rapidly growing cloud intelligence business. The stock is on a tear, even with many of its more brazen bets still waiting for their moment to shine. It's easy to see why Alibaba keeps eating its own cooking with these share repurchases. You might want to consider following suit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>時間站在它這邊。8 月份，關税戰愈演愈烈，但阿里巴巴 85% 的業務是在中國境內進行的。這是一個相對避風港的投資，能夠抵禦貿易爭端帶來的波動。當然，其在美國銷售的 AliExpress 電商平台會受到影響。但在其本土市場，阿里巴巴依然是一股強大的力量。它擁有淘寶、天貓和快速增長的雲智能業務。儘管許多更大膽的投資仍在等待時機，但股價依然強勁。很容易理解為什麼阿里巴巴會繼續進行這些股票回購。你可能也想考慮跟隨這一做法。</p>
</div>

3 Reasons to Buy Alibaba Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

- 阿里巴巴股價在 2025 年中期上漲 75%，但目前仍低於高點 19%。  
- 阿里巴巴的市盈率低於 14，現金和短期投資接近 600 億美元。  
- 公司持續回購股票，過去兩年減少 9% 的流通股，提高每股收益。  

購買阿里巴巴股票的三個理由：抓住當下機遇