<p>在過去幾年的人工智能（AI）熱潮中，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 受到了很多關注（在許多情況下是有道理的），但許多人會驚訝地發現，其股票並不是最大的受益者。最大的受益者是 <strong>Palantir</strong>（PLTR -0.83%），其股價上漲超過 2300%——是 Nvidia 在此期間漲幅的兩倍多。</p>
<p>Palantir 是一家軟件公司，構建數據和分析工具，幫助政府和企業從大型複雜數據集中獲取洞察。理論上聽起來相對簡單，但在 Palantir 所做的規模上，這相當困難。投資者似乎已經注意到了這一點。</p>
<p>隨着 Palantir 的股價徘徊在歷史高點附近，人們自然會想知道是否該在它仍在上漲時跳上過山車，還是準備迎接現實的考驗，因為投資者開始質疑其估值是否合理。在這種情況下，我認為更接近後者。</p>
<h2>Palantir 發佈了穩健的財報</h2>
<p>讓我們先從一些積極的消息開始，那就是 Palantir 最近的財報。Palantir 主要以與美國政府機構（如中央情報局和國防部）的合作而聞名。這一直是它的主要業務，但其人工智能平台（AIP）對其商業業務的推動巨大。</p>
<p>在第一季度，Palantir 的美國政府收入同比增長 45%，達到 3.73 億美元，而其美國商業收入同比增長 71%，達到 2.55 億美元。其總收入為 8.84 億美元（同比增長 39%），繼續保持令人印象深刻的增長，過去五年收入增長超過 200%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0822a44b9ec0775ba25efdc6cf2ebdc8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0822a44b9ec0775ba25efdc6cf2ebdc8.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 收入（季度）數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>這一增長很大程度上歸功於 Palantir 達成了多個六位數以上的大額交易。它達成了 139 筆至少 100 萬美元的交易，51 筆至少 500 萬美元的交易，31 筆至少 1000 萬美元的交易，並且其客户總數同比增長 39%。</p>
<p>Palantir 預計其財年收入將在 38.9 億至 39 億美元之間，這將比 2024 年增長約 36%。</p>
<h2>難以忽視 Palantir 的高估值</h2>
<p>Palantir 最近的股價暴漲對持有該股的投資者來説是個好消息。然而，對於希望首次購買股票或增加現有持股的投資者來説，這並不是個好消息。簡單來説，Palantir 的股票極其昂貴。</p>
<p>截至 7 月 29 日，Palantir 的股票交易價格是其未來收益的 270 倍。這對於任何行業的任何企業來説都很難辯解，但尤其是對於其主要業務（政府合同）並不以高增長著稱且尚未顯示其當前增長率可持續的企業來説，更是如此。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b854f646761e805a745eb3f56eb167b1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b854f646761e805a745eb3f56eb167b1.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 市盈率（前瞻）數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>一些過去達到極高估值的知名軟件公司——而且仍然遠低於 Palantir 目前的估值——自那時以來表現不佳。<strong>Zoom Communications</strong>、<strong>Bill Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>Snowflake</strong> 曾在某個時刻以三位數的倍數交易，而現在分別比其峯值下跌了 86%、86% 和 45%。</p>
<p>這並不意味着 Palantir 會遭遇同樣的命運，但它需要有歷史性和前所未有的表現才能證明其當前的交易水平是合理的。不幸的是，我看不到這種情況的發生。</p>
<h2>投資者應如何看待 Palantir 的股票</h2>
<p>如果你相信 Palantir 的長期潛力，我建議你採用定投方式開始或繼續購買股票。當你進行定投時，你決定一個願意投資的金額，然後設定一個固定的投資計劃，無論當時價格如何都進行投資。</p>
<p>例如，如果你有 1000 美元想投資於 Palantir，你可以決定每隔一個星期一投資 100 美元，或者每月的第一天投資 250 美元，或者任何適合你情況的方式。你設定的時間表並不如堅持執行和在波動中保持一致重要。</p>
<p>通過定投，你可以避免在股價大幅下跌前一次性投資的情況。Palantir 曾出現過股價在一天內下跌兩位數百分比的情況，因此這並不是不切實際的——尤其是在其當前的高估值下。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir 的股票在人工智能熱潮中飆升超過 2300%，表現優於 Nvidia。該公司報告了強勁的收益，美國政府收入同比增長 45%，商業收入同比增長 71%。然而，其股票的估值高達前瞻性收益的 270 倍，引發了對可持續性的擔憂。建議投資者考慮採用定投策略，以降低潛在價格下跌帶來的風險</p>

<p>Through the artificial intelligence (AI) boom over the past few years, <strong>Nvidia</strong> has gotten a lot of attention (rightfully so in many cases), but many would be surprised to see that its stock hasn't been the biggest beneficiary. That would be <strong>Palantir</strong>(PLTR -0.83%), which is up over 2,300% -- more than double Nvidia's gains in that span.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年的人工智能（AI）熱潮中，<strong>Nvidia</strong> 受到了很多關注（在許多情況下是有道理的），但許多人會驚訝地發現，其股票並不是最大的受益者。最大的受益者是 <strong>Palantir</strong>（PLTR -0.83%），其股價上漲超過 2300%——是 Nvidia 在此期間漲幅的兩倍多。</p>
</div><p>Palantir is a software company that builds data and analytics tools that help governments and companies gather insights from large and complex datasets. It may sound relatively simple in theory, but it's fairly hard to do at the scale that Palantir does it. And investors have seemed to take notice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 是一家軟件公司，構建數據和分析工具，幫助政府和企業從大型複雜數據集中獲取洞察。理論上聽起來相對簡單，但在 Palantir 所做的規模上，這相當困難。投資者似乎已經注意到了這一點。</p>
</div><p>With Palantir's stock hovering near its all-time high, it's normal to wonder whether it's time to hop on the roller coaster while it's still on its way up, or brace for a reality check as investors begin to question if its valuation is warranted. In this case, I believe it's much closer to the latter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 Palantir 的股價徘徊在歷史高點附近，人們自然會想知道是否該在它仍在上漲時跳上過山車，還是準備迎接現實的考驗，因為投資者開始質疑其估值是否合理。在這種情況下，我認為更接近後者。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir is putting up solid earnings results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 發佈了穩健的財報</h2>
</div><p>Let's start with some positive news, and that's Palantir's recent earnings. Palantir is mostly known for its work with U.S. government agencies like the CIA and the Department of Defense. That's been its bread and butter for a while, but its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) has been a huge boost to its commercial business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們先從一些積極的消息開始，那就是 Palantir 最近的財報。Palantir 主要以與美國政府機構（如中央情報局和國防部）的合作而聞名。這一直是它的主要業務，但其人工智能平台（AIP）對其商業業務的推動巨大。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter, Palantir's U.S. government revenue grew 45% year over year to $373 million, and its U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% year over year to $255 million. Its $884 million in total revenue (up 39% year over year) continued its impressive growth, which has seen its revenue grow over 200% in the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，Palantir 的美國政府收入同比增長 45%，達到 3.73 億美元，而其美國商業收入同比增長 71%，達到 2.55 億美元。其總收入為 8.84 億美元（同比增長 39%），繼續保持令人印象深刻的增長，過去五年收入增長超過 200%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0822a44b9ec0775ba25efdc6cf2ebdc8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0822a44b9ec0775ba25efdc6cf2ebdc8.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 收入（季度）數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Much of this growth can be attributed to Palantir closing large six-figure-plus deals. It closed 139 deals of at least $1 million, 51 deals of at least $5 million, 31 deals of at least $10 million, and grew its total customers by 39% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一增長很大程度上歸功於 Palantir 達成了多個六位數以上的大額交易。它達成了 139 筆至少 100 萬美元的交易，51 筆至少 500 萬美元的交易，31 筆至少 1000 萬美元的交易，並且其客户總數同比增長 39%。</p>
</div><p>Palantir expects its fiscal year revenue to fall between $3.89 billion and $3.90 billion, which would be around a 36% increase from 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 預計其財年收入將在 38.9 億至 39 億美元之間，這將比 2024 年增長約 36%。</p>
</div><h2>It's hard to ignore Palantir's high valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>難以忽視 Palantir 的高估值</h2>
</div><p>Palantir's recent stock price explosion is great news for investors who've held the stock. However, it's not-so-good news for investors looking to acquire their first shares or add to their existing holdings. To put it lightly, Palantir's stock is extremely expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 最近的股價暴漲對持有該股的投資者來説是個好消息。然而，對於希望首次購買股票或增加現有持股的投資者來説，這並不是個好消息。簡單來説，Palantir 的股票極其昂貴。</p>
</div><p>As of July 29, Palantir's stock is trading at an absurd 270 times its forward earnings. That's hard to justify for any business in any industry, but especially one whose main business (government contracts) isn't known for being high-growth and has yet to show its current growth rates are sustainable long-term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 7 月 29 日，Palantir 的股票交易價格是其未來收益的 270 倍。這對於任何行業的任何企業來説都很難辯解，但尤其是對於其主要業務（政府合同）並不以高增長著稱且尚未顯示其當前增長率可持續的企業來説，更是如此。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b854f646761e805a745eb3f56eb167b1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b854f646761e805a745eb3f56eb167b1.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 市盈率（前瞻）數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Notable past software companies that have reached extremely high valuations -- and still much less than what Palantir currently is -- haven't fared well since that peak. <strong>Zoom Communications</strong>, <strong>Bill Holdings</strong>, and <strong>Snowflake</strong> each traded at triple-digit multiples of their sales at one point, and they're now down 86%, 86%, and 45% from their peaks, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些過去達到極高估值的知名軟件公司——而且仍然遠低於 Palantir 目前的估值——自那時以來表現不佳。<strong>Zoom Communications</strong>、<strong>Bill Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>Snowflake</strong> 曾在某個時刻以三位數的倍數交易，而現在分別比其峯值下跌了 86%、86% 和 45%。</p>
</div><p>This doesn't mean Palantir will follow the same fate, but it would need to have a historical and unprecedented run to justify the levels it's currently trading at. And unfortunately, I don't see it happening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不意味着 Palantir 會遭遇同樣的命運，但它需要有歷史性和前所未有的表現才能證明其當前的交易水平是合理的。不幸的是，我看不到這種情況的發生。</p>
</div><h2>How investors should approach Palantir's stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者應如何看待 Palantir 的股票</h2>
</div><p>If you're a believer in Palantir's long-term potential, I would recommend dollar-cost averaging to begin or continue acquiring shares. When you dollar-cost average, you decide on an amount you're willing to invest in a stock and then put yourself on a set investing schedule, making the investments regardless of prices at that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你相信 Palantir 的長期潛力，我建議你採用定投方式開始或繼續購買股票。當你進行定投時，你決定一個願意投資的金額，然後設定一個固定的投資計劃，無論當時價格如何都進行投資。</p>
</div><p>For example, if you have $1,000 you want to invest in Palantir, you could decide to invest $100 every other Monday, $250 on the first of each month, or whatever works best with your situation. The schedule you put yourself on isn't as important as making sure you stick to it and stay consistent through ups and downs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，如果你有 1000 美元想投資於 Palantir，你可以決定每隔一個星期一投資 100 美元，或者每月的第一天投資 250 美元，或者任何適合你情況的方式。你設定的時間表並不如堅持執行和在波動中保持一致重要。</p>
</div><p>By dollar-cost averaging, you avoid a situation where you invest a lump sum right before a huge stock price drop happens. Palantir has had instances where its stock price dropped by double-digit percentages in a day, so it's not that far-fetched -- especially with its current stretched valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過定投，你可以避免在股價大幅下跌前一次性投資的情況。Palantir 曾出現過股價在一天內下跌兩位數百分比的情況，因此這並不是不切實際的——尤其是在其當前的高估值下。</p>
</div>

Palantir at All-Time Highs: Buy Now or Brace for a Reality Check?

- Palantir 的股價在人工智能熱潮中上漲超過 2300%。  
- 第一季度，Palantir 美國政府收入同比增長 45%，商業收入增長 71%。  
- 目前 Palantir 的市盈率高達 270 倍，投資者需謹慎。  

Palantir 股價創歷史新高：是現在買入還是準備面對現實的考驗？